[Archived] Glazer Set For Utd

[philipl]

Platini raises the issue of withdrawing UEFA licenses from indebted clubs again.

The table underneath is a year out of date- United's debts had grown by another £115m when the latest accounts were filed at Companies House last week.

[S15]

The only way United would ever be in trouble is if they didn't make the top 4 for two years running.

Just makes all the statistics and speculation useless, because it will never happen.

[philipl]

OK look at it this way-

In the year Man U recaptured the Premier League title, their overall debt increased by 50% more than Spurs' total turn over.

About half that increase in debt came through Man U buying the likes of Hargreaves, Anderson, Nani and Vidic on the never never. And that is the unfair advantage that Platini is talking about sorting out which most certainly would be good for the rest of the Premiership and a reason why I am very nervous about Rovers' ownership going that way.

Why do you think Tevez is saying he hopes Man U will buy him in the papers today? Because he is there on loan and the way things are looking, Man U might well never exercise their option to buy him for the simple reason they are not able to.

[S15]

OK look at it this way-

Non of your spin can alter my earlier statement.

Not questioning any of your figures or statistics, as I can't in any way be bothered doing any research to even think about challenging them, but United, unfortunately for you and your personal hate campaign, will never crash and burn. They are far too big, and far too good.

[Ronin]

Never know though, if/when RFW leaves the old trafford hotseat, things might take a turn for the worst if the next manager doesn't come up to scratch (Queiros perhaps?). I'm sure that's at the back of the minds of the United board. Although with the squad, as it is at the moment anyway, it's hard to see that happening just yet.

[LeftWinger]

What happens if the football bubble bursts like the property one seems to have done?

If people get sick of the lack of competition, and interest in watching on tele dies, this could also lead to a substantial drop in income.

Maybe then United would be screwed!

[BiggusLaddus]

What happens if the football bubble bursts like the property one seems to have done?

If people get sick of the lack of competition, and interest in watching on tele dies, this could also lead to a substantial drop in income.

Maybe then United would be screwed!

So would we!

[Eddie]

We'd be a lot more screwed.

[philipl]

We'd be a lot more screwed.

How do you work that one out Eddie?

If there were a 20% reduction in money available all round in the EPL, Rovers would have temporary pain but with the Trust ownership and no unmanageable debts, we'd come through relatively OK. As it is, the Rovers' board always has to plan for us having a poor season- finishing 17th rather than 7th would probably take 15% out of the Rovers' income.

The Glazers on the other hand would be wiped out- £40m less per year to service debt which in turn would be unsupported by enterprise value as that would fall by much more than 20% because all the growth assumptions would have gone through the window.

Edited May 19, 2008 by philipl

[Eddie]

First of all, I don't think we make it through a 20% reduction as easily as you put it.

Second of all, there would never be a scenario where there is 20% all round, unless it's imply TV revenue. If United saw their income fall by 20% we would see ours fall by a ton more than that. The day United start to see a serious decline in their revenue is the day we should all be very worried.

[LeftWinger]

I'm with philipl on this one. Getting yourself in a lot of debt isn't so bad as long as your earnings stay at the expected levels. If they dropped dramatically - United could be in trouble.

While we'd feel the strain - the fact we've only a small level of debt is a big bonus.

Who'd want to buy United if it looked like the bubble had burst?

In many ways - I think it would improve football - money has/is ruining the game.

[BiggusLaddus]

I'm with philipl on this one. Getting yourself in a lot of debt isn't so bad as long as your earnings stay at the expected levels. If they dropped dramatically - United could be in trouble.

While we'd feel the strain - the fact we've only a small level of debt is a big bonus.

Who'd want to buy United if it looked like the bubble had burst?

In many ways - I think it would improve football - money has/is ruining the game.

No one would need to buy united. The banks would move in and take what is theirs and then they wold asset strip until the club was profitable and then either run it at a profit or sell it on.

Blackburn rovers would have lost a huge chunk of our income, and would have to sell all of our big earners and would probably end up relegated with less funds than any other town club in the championship.

The TV bubble bursting would cost united more money in absolute terms, but they are a lot farther away from relegation than we are and they are not currently "punching above their weight". Without TV revenue we could not compete with any of the city clubs.

Without the tv revenue we could not break even in the premier league. With their worldwide fanbase (which would shrink a bit) and crowds, united could, even if it meant a couple of seasons outside of the champions league.

[thenodrog]

Non of your spin can alter my earlier statement.

Not questioning any of your figures or statistics, as I can't in any way be bothered doing any research to even think about challenging them, but United, unfortunately for you and your personal hate campaign, will never crash and burn. They are far too big, and far too good.

They probably thought that in 1957.

Actually the wave of sympathy after that crash absolutely made Man Utd. Up till then they were just another 1st Div club. Sympathy, abolishment of the max wage, El Beatle (Georgie Best) and home crowds keeping the gate receipts in that chronological order all swung the balance of power toward Old Trafford..... Icing on the cake in terms of bent refs and Fergietime came much later.

[thenodrog]

No one would need to buy united. The banks would move in and take what is theirs and then they wold asset strip until the club was profitable and then either run it at a profit or sell it on.

Blackburn rovers would have lost a huge chunk of our income, and would have to sell all of our big earners and would probably end up relegated with less funds than any other town club in the championship.

The TV bubble bursting would cost united more money in absolute terms, but they are a lot farther away from relegation than we are and they are not currently "punching above their weight". Without TV revenue we could not compete with any of the city clubs.

Without the tv revenue we could not break even in the premier league. With their worldwide fanbase (which would shrink a bit) and crowds, united could, even if it meant a couple of seasons outside of the champions league.

ANY CLUB with a large debt would be in the sh1t. The groundrules would shift enormously.

imo the TV money did BRFC no favours anyway. Instead of just the usual billy big times it suddenly made every club in the Prem at least as rich as us. All the TV money did was allow clubs in the Prem to elbow the Italians, spanirds and krauts aside and sign the worlds best players.

[S15]

They probably thought that in 1957.

Sometimes you genuinely make me laugh, but that's just a cretinous comment.

[thenodrog]

I think 'insensitive' may have been a more appropriate description for you to use rather than 'cretinous' Shillitoe. imo I do think you are being a little over sensitive in this instance.

Edited May 19, 2008 by thenodrog

[Exiled in Toronto]

The Glazers on the other hand would be wiped out

Given that all the debt is on United's books, the Glaziers would be just fine wouldn't they? And even if the hedge funds did take over, they are not in the business of running cash generators into the ground, so the best plan would be to keep the Man Yoo machine running.

Do you really believe that the Glaziers, with their hard=earned billion dollar fortune and track record of running a successful major sports franchise, haven't thought of any of these pitfalls you, an internet jockey, have been pointing out for the last 2 or 3 years....??

[philipl]

That is why I wrote the Glazers and not Man U would be wiped out- I should have said the Glazers' control over Man U would be wiped out.

Come on its very obvious what the Glazers have done- they have had the balls to gamble much bigger than any other people were willing to do and had the reputational collateral of having done enough good deals in the past to gamble almost 100% with other people's money.

They got the deals away to buy Man U when market conditions were ideal for doing this. There is no way they could pull the same trick this summer. And in part therein lies their problem:

Things that have gone in their favour are

- On field performance has been ahead of plan and budget

- Coming through the two year limitation on transfers without damaging the on-field performance

- The collective Sky/Setanta deal being more than anticipated

- The willingness of the Mancs to pay 12% per annum price increases four years running and swallowing the forced buying of seats for Cup matches

Things that have not gone in their favour are

- The famed intercontinental marketing expertise is making very modest headway in terms of building revenues and profits

- Failure to get good deals on rolling debt in the first twelve months did not cut interest charges in the way the Glazers hoped

- Failure to take an unattractive deal to refinance 18 months ago whereas now the market conditions mean there are simply no deals to be done

- As a consequence, debt is increasing and interest charges growing faster than the rate of growth in revenue and earnings before interest depreciation and amortisation

- And they are now at the mercy of a Hedge Fund which can put Directors on the Board any time it wants. No doubt it is extracting a high price in terms of management information being supplied in detail and very frequently.

The Glazer high wire act continues gratis the Premier League title and the trip to Moscow but it just means if they over-balance in any way, they will fall higher and heavier.

Do you know how they are handling the May 2010 deadline by the way?

Indebtedness of Man U and Chelsea.

Two points worth remembering- Jack Walker also used interest free loans to Rovers which the Trust converted into ordinary shares when the change of accounting rules meant that the club would struggle to maintain its ordinary business if they were not converted. The fact Chelsea have not done that means they must be getting 100% of their ordinary finance from Abramovich and not using banks.

- Abramovich has spent a larger sum on luxury yachts and airplanes than some estimates put the Glazer family wealth at.

Edited May 20, 2008 by philipl

[JAL]

The Glazers for me are still in a win win situation for the next couple of years at least because of the age and quality of the Manchester United squad.

United are guaranteed success for the next couple of seasons at the minimum, so the money will keep rolling in buying the Glazers important time to plan a successful exit strategy.

Remember they have a gold mine in Ronaldo(£50m+) and still the squad would be more than able to continue and cope in the premier league without him.

We need Chelsea to win this European cup because United are growing into a monster that could quite easily gobble us all up.

[Eddie]

I actually think it is far better for Rovers to have one dominant force in the league. We'll never win the title, so have the other three weaken so that we might at least make the champions league.

[JAL]

I actually think it is far better for Rovers to have one dominant force in the league. We'll never win the title, so have the other three weaken so that we might at least make the champions league.

The scenario i'd like to see is Abramovich or a.n.other raise the financial stakes even further than the £1.5b currently reported between the two clubs and blow Manchester United out of the footballing water completely.

Purely because they (Man U) have grown so big, easily the biggest supported club on this planet that many UK football teams wont be able to compete against them in the future.

[philipl]

Just out of curiosity, were there any sightings of the Glazer clan on Wednesday?

If not, has there been any comment?

[Exiled in Toronto]

Things that have gone in their favour are

- On field performance has been ahead of plan and budget

- Coming through the two year limitation on transfers without damaging the on-field performance

- The collective Sky/Setanta deal being more than anticipated

- The willingness of the Mancs to pay 12% per annum price increases four years running and swallowing the forced buying of seats for Cup matches

These are not random events that have 'gone in their favour'

1) They stuck with RFW when everyone else said he was finished

2) They 100% backed his judgement on signings

3) I'll wager the new deal was actually lower than the Glaziers thought it should/could be

4) The Glaziers saw that a 30-year waiting list for season tickets was unfulfilled demand that could be exploited through higher pricing

Although you paint them as buffoons, the fact is that they are largely the architects of their own success.

[Eddie]

Noooooo don't say that.

They are evil and retarded and United will be gone soon because they are on the brink of the biggest financial implosion the business world has ever seen!

Oh, but apart from that they just won the Champions League and the Premiership and are laughing all the way to the bank on those winnings. Not to metnion having probably the most highly valued player in the world in their squad. Big trouble in little trafford by the looks of things.

[philipl]

These are not random events that have 'gone in their favour'

1) They stuck with RFW when everyone else said he was finished

2) They 100% backed his judgement on signings

3) I'll wager the new deal was actually lower than the Glaziers thought it should/could be

4) The Glaziers saw that a 30-year waiting list for season tickets was unfulfilled demand that could be exploited through higher pricing

Although you paint them as buffoons, the fact is that they are largely the architects of their own success.

I am not saying they are random events and I am not saying they are buffoons- you are making those bits up yourself!