[Archived] Aston Villa 1 Blackburn Rovers 0

[brfcshabba]

Aston Villa Vs Blackburn Rovers

27/08/05 15:00 Villa Park

Three games into the season, a win, a loss and the Spurs result means that we are above the big team (Brum) and the clarets, no not Arsenal but Villa whom we meet on Saturday.

The season so far for Villa, started with a 2-2 draw against Bolton. It was a frantic start at Villa Park where by the time Chris Kamara had shouted “Unbelievable!” four goals had been scored. They then lost narrowly 1-0 to Manchester United last Saturday and on Tuesday they had a game against Pompey, in which they had Nobby Solano sent off in a 1-1 draw. This means he maybe missing for the game against us, pending an appeal.

In the transfer window so far Villa have brought in a few solid players to enhance a somewhat ‘small honest bunch of lads’ that O’Leary seems to mention every Saturday in the post match interview. He has brought in Phillips in place of Vassell, Berger in place of Hitzelsperger, Milan Baros to replace the on loan Carlton Cole and Stuart Taylor in place of Stefan Postma he has also brought in Aaron Hughes as an extra player.

At the time of writing, Physioroom.com reports that Berger, Delaney, Samuel and Laursen all have injuries that could keep them out of the Rovers game. Hendrie will possibly be back from suspension and may come in to replace Davis.

Now we all like to predict the outcome of the match and I’m no different. I am going to attempt to use the SOS method, bear with me – Statistics, opinion and simulation (doesn’t involve diving) to try and find an outcome for the match .

Statistics

The last time Rovers played on the 27th of August we won 4-0 against Coventry City 11 years ago; meanwhile Aston Villa was drawing 1-1 with Crystal Palace. That season Rovers beat Villa away with A Hendry header and 3-1 at home with Shearer grabbing a brace. Rovers went on to finish champions with Villa down in 18th and one place outside the relegation zone.

Out of the 22 games since the Premiership started, the Lancashire side have won 11 games with Villa winning 7 and the other 4 being draws.

The goals scoring overall is a massive difference. 31 goals for the blues compared to the clarets 19 goals in 22 games.

Matches held at Villa Park have equal with 5 wins a piece and the solitary draw back in 92-93 season. However at Villa Park, Rovers have scored 11 whereas Villa has only managed the 10 goals.

Last season it was Aston Villa’s midfield scoring 22 only ten less than the whole of the Rovers squad with 32. They also managed to overturn a first half defeat and convert it into a win on two occasions. If each game finished a half time Aston Vila would now be playing Championship football and Rovers would have finished 11th last year. This is because 2/3 of Villa’s goals conceded were conceded in the first half of games.

Nobby Solano and Juan Pablo Angel were the top scorers for Villa with 9, however this was still less than Dickov with ten who is suspended for the trip to the Midlands club. Another fact was that Andy Todd scored Blackburn’s 600th premiership goal against West Ham.

Looking at the statistics overall it is clear that Rovers have the upper hand on Villa and is why this section results in a Rovers Win.

Opinions

My opinion is that we are going to lose. Hopefully this will go in the same way as the Ashes thread were I predict against my favoured team in the hope they win. A Villa fan would say that they are going to win and a Rovers fan would say that Rovers are going to win unless this fan is Vinjay. But Aston Villa have more fans than Rovers and this section results in a Villa Win.

I’ll let you lot predict the outcome in more detail!

Simulation

We all like a good game of Football Manager apart from Eddie whose game never seems to work. So I will run a simulation of the match. I have taken over both teams updated the squads and run what I perceive as the correct teams.

Rovers have started off as a 4-5-1 formation and Villa a 4-4-2. Rovers line up with Friedel, Matteo, Nelsen, Todd, Neill, Pedersen, Reid, Savage, Tugay, Emerton and Kuqi. Aston Villa line up with the same team that played against Portsmouth. Sorensen, Samuel, Mellberg, Ridgewell, Hughes, Solano, Davis, McCann, Barry, Angel, Phillips.

The game kicks off few chances go to Blackburn after a good start with Emerton working well on the wing cutting in and shooting wide. After one minute of injury time it was 0-0. 4 shots each was the story of the first half in a pretty poor match.

The second half wasn’t much better. Moore replaced Angel after 60 minutes and when Reid picked up an injury soon after, Flitcroft replaced him. Phillips had a chance to win it for Villa but Friedel tipped it over the bar.

Neill and Samuel got in a skirmish in the 85th minute and unsurprisingly both were booked. No more chances came and the game ended in a 0-0 draw. A poor match but i'm sure Rovers will settle for a point at the Villa who are looking for their first win of the season and with Baros hoping for goals and clean sheet will do nicely. So I a draw is the predicted result.

Credit to fooball manager kit/skin creators

So, all three sections have resulted in a different outcome. I can’t decide what the result is; it’s now up to you. Let the predicting commence!

[Ronin]

Good post, like the SOS reasoning

As for my prediction, could be a tight game and Rovers will definitely have their hands full with Baros and Phillips upfront. Our confidence will be much higher thanks to the Fulham result so hopeful of a better game from us, especially if Tugay plays and Pederson keep sto form. Either a draw or we'll nick it with another wonder goal!

:rovers:

[waggy]

if any rovers fan wants to go to villa on saturday,the cheaper way.you can buy tickets on ticket master for £20 adults and £7 for children

[Cocker]

Good Post KuqiMonster - sorry I mean Cookiemonster.

I think I will wait to see if Todd is banned before making a prediction. Without Todd and Neil I would think we will be playing The Axe in the middle with Reid on the right. Not too bad I suppose unless Amo rises from the dead and if that happens then we will get beat 5-0 because they will skip past him while he poses for pictures.

Not to forget, Baros will get his first game and will have a point to prove to everyone - gulp

Edited August 25, 2005 by Cocker

[stuwilky]

Good Post KuqiMonster - sorry I mean Cookiemonster.

I think I will wait to see if Todd is banned before making a prediction.  Without Todd and Neil I would think we will be playing The Axe in the middle with Reid on the right.  Not too bad I suppose unless Amo rises from the dead and if that happens then we will get beat 5-0 because they will skip past him while he poses for pictures.

Not to forget, Baros will get his first game and will have a point to prove to everyone - gulp

341630[/snapback]

I did have another though about what is likely to be a makeshift defence.....

Andy Taylor on the right

Nelsen on the right side of the centre

Matteo on the left side of the centre

Gresko.

Sends shivers down the spine, but might work

[promoted2001]

if any rovers fan wants to go to villa on saturday,the cheaper way.you can buy tickets on ticket master for £20 adults and £7 for children

341628[/snapback]

Thats a service for home fans only, you'll be sitting with the villains!

BTW Where did you get that skin/Kit pack Kuqimonster?

[SAS]

Got my ticket last night

and if we play like we did last night, there is no reason why we cant get a point or 3.

[Gareth]

Another draw (1-1) & another red card: I think Savage is overdue...

[greggyk]

With Todd out(probably for 5 games) and Neill out, we would do well for a draw here, although Villa have both Hendrie and Solano out suspended.

It will be a full house(in the Villa side) because of Baros, so the rovers players will have to stay calm.

Villa 1-1 Rovers

Philips(74) Kuqi (18)

[philipl]

Villa will be desperate for their first win of the season. Baros making his debut, Savage winding up the locals, I am afraid they will get it:

2-0 to Villa

[Ricky]

I'm going to this one, first match of the season. looking forward to seeing a few familiar faces.

I'm not going to make a prediction as i always get it wrong. could be tricky with baros making his debut

[SouthAussieRover]

Villa 4 Rovers 2.

[James No. 7]

1-0 to the Rovers for me. I think MGP is due another goal and will get it at that scoreline. I am not confident that Kuqi will get one, but I hope it's him because he deserves it, for all his flaws.

[Presty On Tour]

a went to villa park a few seasons ago in the f.a.cup 3rd round when we won 4-1!!

was a quality day, jansen and yorke had 2 each!!

the villa fans gave some much abuse at g.taylor that day and then left the ground 30mins early.

a performance and a result like that would be a well good and i think a defeat is out of the question for rovers on saturday.

i doubt we get the same scoreline but the victory yes!!

villa have got serious problems this season, yeah they have signed barros but in my opinion he's useless anyway.

their side is weak and we should pick up 3 points.

[RevidgeBlue]

Can't see us losing but can't see us scoring either.

0-0, another two winnable points going begging.

[speeeeeeedie]

Will Neill miss this one? Or does he sit out first? In all likelihood Todd will be up for a 3 game ban but that one will come later n'est pas? Where is Nissa when you need him!

[Cocker]

Will Neill miss this one? Or does he sit out first? In all likelihood Todd will be up for a 3 game ban but that one will come later n'est pas? Where is Nissa when you need him!

341780[/snapback]

Neil will be banned but I really doubt Todd will to be honest because I dont think he will be charged in time - but he will be charged and I suspect maybe for more than 3 games too.

[andyrovers]

What are the options if/when Lucus Neil is banned?

Mickey Grey

Tesco

Jay McEveley

Tricky one this, Villa are no push over but I'm going for 1-1

[modes98]

Neil will be banned but I really doubt Todd will to be honest because I dont think he will be charged in time - but he will be charged and I suspect maybe for more than 3 games too.

341782[/snapback]

According to Radio Rovers last night he will not be banned, as the suspension takes 7 days to kick in so he would miss the game after! don't know if this is right but i think i remember it being true last season!

Hope it is as i want to see a half decent rovers backline on saturday, seeing as its £28

[1864roverite]

i think it will be very tight. Rovers can adapt to any team away from home. Villa are way too inconsistent to be a top club anymore despite their signings and cash splashing.

I just cant see Kuqi notching so if Rovers are to win 1-0 I would expect our goal to come from the threesome of either MGP, Emerton or Savage (pen).

otherwise a staunch 0-0

[joey_big_nose]

As Todd shouldnt be banned I am a little more confident about this game. Rovers should line up:

                     
                          Kuqi

        Pedersen                       Emerton
                     Savage      Reid
                             Tugay

           Matteo     Todd     Nelsen   Taylor/Axe

                         Freidel

Subs: Encks (Lee?), Axe, Gresko, Gallagher, Johnson

Personally I would still like to see Gallagher given a shot in place of Emerton. It is not so much that I think young Paul will be a massive addition but just a bit of an improvement over the woeful Australian. Gallagher lacks pace to be a good wide player but as Brett cannot beat a player himself it hardly seems a problem. Gally can at least cross and is more of a goal threat too.

Even sticking Reid out on the right and bringing Moko in is a better option that having Emo out there. He needs a kick up the backside and dropping him is the way to do it. We can always bring him on in the second half.

ps. I am a fan of the Nelsen for captain campaign too. He is one of our three best players (MGP, Bellamy I would say are the others at the moment) and a level headed chap.

Edited August 25, 2005 by joey_big_nose

[speeeeeeedie]

As is always proved we have no say in tactics or players, so what about Emerton at right back whilst Neill is banned? Everyone said he played as a wing back for Feyenoord, one game won't hurt him and he might enjoy it. Put Reid out wide and Mokoena in the middle with Savage and Tugay. When Todd gets banned expect Axe to slot in again as Neill should be back.

[pick32]

3-1 rovers a bit optamistic but i think we will do it

kuqi

emerton

MGP

baros

[Quack]

Baros will presumably be starting, 2-1 to the Villans I am afraid. Mr Lawrenson likewise predicts a win for them. Baros / Angel and Kuqi to get off the mark.

[Bobby G]

2-0 Villa.