Battle Of 4th, 5th, 6th Position

[Bobby G]

The powers that be usually seperate the top teams at the semi-finals stage, "somehow". It cost us twice at the League Cup semi-final stage and once at the FA Cup semis last season. Lets hope it works in our favor this time.

[Presty On Tour]

so the best outcome for us would be a chelsea v liverpool final as it would free another uefa cup spot in the premiership league table with chelsea and liverpool being in the top 3 and placed for champions league qualification.

[Hughesy]

The best outcome would be that we finish 4th or at least above Bolton.

[Ronin]

The powers that be usually seperate the top teams at the semi-finals stage, "somehow". It cost us twice at the League Cup semi-final stage and once at the FA Cup semis last season. Lets hope it works in our favor this time.

392814[/snapback]

Wouldn't be surprised if that happened. Might confirm the ol' conspiracy theorists

[pksrover]

Don't know if anyone have posted this before, but this is the top half of the table when only the games played in 2006 is counted

                                    G  W  D  L  GS  GA    P

1 Everton                      10  7    2  1    23    17    8

2 Blackburn Rovers        11  7    1  3    22    17  12

3 Liverpool                    13  6    3  4    21    16    12

4 Chelsea                      10  6  2    2    20    15    10

5 Manchester United        9    6  1  2    19    18    12

6 Arsenal                      11  5  2  4    17    21    8

7 Bolton Wanderers        10  4  5  1    17    16    10

8 West Ham United          9  5    1  3    16    18    17

9 Tottenham Hotspur      10  4    3  3    15    14    10

[Presty On Tour]

The best outcome would be that we finish 4th or at least above Bolton.

392843[/snapback]

we can still make 3rd

[LA Rover]

I was talking to my Barca supporting mate at work, who has taken a passing interest in our Champions League chase, and I basically outlined it to him like this: Factoring in other teams predicted results (always a sketchy proposition) I think 65 points would get us 4th. Going into last weeks game with Boro that meant we needed to take 20 of 27 remaining points. Now it's 17 of 24...get 3 points Saturday and it becomes 14 of 21. Then suddenly it seems really attainable.

That means we can lose 2 games, or lose 1 and draw 2. It sounds daunting, but if we can just put some away form together I don't think it's impossible (oh to have those WBA and Everton games back). If we beat either Liverpool or Chelsea and not slip up against the bottom teams, I think we can do it.

At any rate, just the fact that we're in a position to be disappointed by NOT qualifying for the Champions League is a great thing and credit to MH and the squad.

Edited March 23, 2006 by LA Rover

[Bobby G]

But at the same time, even if we get 65, you can easily see sides like Arsenal, Bolton possibly and Spurs getting 65 points too.

I dont think we will know what will be enough. If we can get 17 more points then the least we will find is will be in the thick of things come the last game of the season.

Beat Sunderland and Wigan, then 4 more wins out of the last 6 should get the 65, but 4 out of 6 isnt an easy as you think!

[LeChuck]

But at the same time, even if we get 65, you can easily see sides like Arsenal, Bolton possibly and Spurs getting 65 points too.

393025[/snapback]

There's absolutely no way 65 points would give a 7th place finish. In fact, it would be a minor miracle if 65 points gave anything other than 4th place.

[philipl]

I disagree. There are four very good squads all in good form in a race over eight games (ten in Bolton's case). One or two will drop away but would three or four?

4th place needs 69 points this season, maybe even more.

However, 65 points should assure 6th at worst and no way would 7th get more than 65.

Incidentally, I just know its going to be Chelsea v Liverpool in the FA Cup semi-finals because we are in Euro contention this year. Just as Arsenal will go and win the Champions League if we come 4th!

Edited March 24, 2006 by philipl

[Exiled_Rover]

Bloody typical, Chelsea vs Liverpool in the semis - Philipl called it

[bellamy11]

Let's finish 6th then boys...

[Rover4ever]

Incidentally, I just know its going to be Chelsea v Liverpool in the FA Cup semi-finals because we are in Euro contention this year. Just as Arsenal will go and win the Champions League if we come 4th!

393031[/snapback]

Got the first correct, philipl

What are the odds now of us finishing 4th and Arsenal winning the CL?

[Hughesy]

Arsenal wont get past Juventus.

I think if we can win tomorrow and then again against Wigan then our challenge for 4th will start to be taken really seriously.

Hopefully pompey will take a draw off Arsenal at weekend.

[MIROVER]

I was thinking all along that the FA/Media love affair with West Ham would result in chelsea v liverpool, makes me puke last 2 semi final draws went against us cos they wanted/hoped for the big prestigious final now cos its west ham I am sure of it it is a conspiracy bet your bottom dollar that if rovers were in the semi final we would be playin either lpool or chelsea. It is a conspiracy I tell thee guaranteed UEFA fball for wham/charlton/mboro.

[philipl]

Got the first correct, philipl

What are the odds now of us finishing 4th and Arsenal winning the CL? 

393142[/snapback]

Unfortunately rather high as I didn't put a bet on it.

[Presty On Tour]

the latest odds for finishing 4th:

Arsenal 4/9 Tottenham 9/4, Bolton 12/1

Blackb'n 16/1, Liverp'l 33/1, Wigan 50/1

16/1 maybe worth a few bucks

[Hughesy]

Will the runner up of the competition get a Uefa place?

Doesnt it go to the league placing?

[Ronin]

Will the runner up of the competition get a Uefa place?

Doesnt it go to the league placing?

393172[/snapback]

Not sure, although I do remember Millwall playing in the UEFA Cup after they got stuffed in the FA Cup final by Man U.

[ihtd]

That is very true Ronin, they lost the final 3-0 but still playe din the Uefa Cup the next season as the runner up in the cup.

[Ronin]

If that's the case, then makes it all the more important to press on and aim for fourth place.

[SAS]

fa cup is

winner or runner up

if non of them, it then goes league

[Presty On Tour]

if the winner has already qualifed for europe through the league (top 6) or another cup competion the runner up is awarded the uefa cup place.

if the runner up has also already qualified for europe through different competions like the winner then the uefa cup spot will be given to 7th position in the league.

[LA Rover]

I disagree. There are four very good squads all in good form in a race over eight games (ten in Bolton's case). One or two will drop away but would three or four?

4th place needs 69 points this season, maybe even more.

However, 65 points should assure 6th at worst and no way would 7th get more than 65.

393031[/snapback]

69 is a lot of points for 4th, for the simple reason that all the other teams have to play one another.

Spurs still have to play Bolton and Arsenal which means someone is going to drop points in those games. Bolton obviously have the inside track because of their games in hand, but they still have to play Spurs, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man U. If they take 6 points from those fixtures I think they would be happy...which also means they've dropped 6 points.

It's Arsenal's spot to lose. Their toughest tests come away at Old Trafford and a derby match with Spurs. Maybe away to Pompey this weekend could be a bit of a banana skin with the way Pompey has played the last two weeks. A draw would be great.

At any rate, I still think we'll go close if we get 65.

[Bobby G]

Very interesting that Chelsea get Pool in the semi-final.

That rules out 7th for the UEFA Cup spot.

Gotta aim for top 6 but with our luck, Arsenal will win the CL.