Battle Of 4th, 5th, 6th Position

[philipl]

69 is a lot of points for 4th, for the simple reason that all the other teams have to play one another.

Spurs still have to play Bolton and Arsenal which means someone is going to drop points in those games. Bolton obviously have the inside track because of their games in hand, but they still have to play Spurs, Arsenal, Liverpool and Man U. If they take 6 points from those fixtures I think they would be happy...which also means they've dropped 6 points.

It's Arsenal's spot to lose. Their toughest tests come away at Old Trafford and a derby match with Spurs. Maybe away to Pompey this weekend could be a bit of a banana skin with the way Pompey has played the last two weeks. A draw would be great.

At any rate, I still think we'll go close if we get 65.

393217[/snapback]

Maxmum points possible are:

Bolton 78

Spurs 76

Arsenal 74

Rovers 73

with just Arsenal v Spurs and Spurs v Bolton to come by way of head to heads between the four.

I am sticking with the view that all four will be approaching every fixture as a must win until the 4th place is out of reach and that will drive the points collection of the winner of this race to something like 69.

Put it another way, as a neutral looking at Rovers' fixture list, you'd say 69 is doable and the other three must know that.

[LeChuck]

I was thinking all along that the FA/Media love affair with West Ham would result in chelsea v liverpool, makes me puke last 2 semi final draws went against us cos they wanted/hoped for the big prestigious final now cos its west ham I am sure of it it is a conspiracy bet your bottom dollar that if rovers were in the semi final we would be playin either lpool or chelsea. It is a conspiracy I tell thee guaranteed UEFA fball for wham/charlton/mboro.

393154[/snapback]

Bloody hell, are you being serious?

[speeeeeeedie]

I too view the FA cup with suspicion. It started a few years ago when I was regailed with tales of officials putting balls in the microwave before the draw to ensure top notch ties. Since the time media types starting writing that the FA cup "has lost some of its lustre" these dodgy draws have become commonplace. Everyone on here was not surprised last year when we got Arsenal in the semi. I was not surprised to see us playing Burnley also after they won a few. I know that during the latter stages the good teams will still be there and as such the probability of them playing each other will increase but Man U Burton smells.

If I had longer I would recant more dodgy draws. Chelsea playing Man U every round guarantees the FA money and exposure; a 5th round tie of Colchester v. Hull does not, but they have to be played so they make sure every round has a super tie to keep interest.

[AussieinUk]

That rules out 7th for the UEFA Cup spot.

393220[/snapback]

How do you figure that? If Liverpool or Chelsea win the FA Cup, then the spot will go to the 7th position..

[greggyk]

How do  you figure that?  If Liverpool or Chelsea win the FA Cup, then the spot will go to the 7th position..

393238[/snapback]

Shall I explain this time!?

The runner-up gets a place in the Uefa Cup if the winner is already in europe. And I cant see Charlton,Boro or West Ham finishing in the top 6

[AussieinUk]

Shall I explain this time!?

The runner-up gets a place in the Uefa Cup if the winner is already in europe. And I cant see Charlton,Boro or West Ham finishing in the top 6

393239[/snapback]

My bad - Sorry Greggyk, Just finished work

[philipl]

With 7th no use for UEFA qualification, that ups the pressure on Rovers, Bolton, Spurs and Arsenal even more to get every point they can. I can see this going to the wire- imagine having the possibilty of CL football or Intertoto hanging on the last two games assuming Chelsea gets shifted to 26 April.

[MIROVER]

maybe wrong thread but this makes me angry. Last yr I thought they said that they had to be played at Cardiff.

The Football Association have confirmed the venues for the FA Cup semi-finals.

Old Trafford and Villa Park have been chosen, with Cardiff's Millennium Stadium being saved for the final itself.

Chelsea versus Liverpool will be at Old Trafford on Saturday April 22, with kick-off at 5:15pm.

The second semi-final will take place the following day at Villa Park and will be live on Sky Sports at 4:00pm.

[LA Rover]

Put it another way, as a neutral looking at Rovers' fixture list, you'd say 69 is doable and the other three must know that.

393221[/snapback]

Being realistic, I don't think we can get 69 points....just to get 65 means we can't drop points in more than 2 or 3 matches. To get 69 points would probably mean beating both Liverpool AND Chelsea at home (not impossible, but not realistic either), because I just have a feeling we will slip up somewhere in our away fixtures. Remember, we've won 4 away games all year (lost our last 5).

Oh well...let's just make sure we get all 3 at Sunderland and keep the dream alive.

[T4E]

Another scenario then -

Middlesbrough win the UEFA Cup and lose in the cup final. Surely then 7th place would get a UEFA place?

[Rovers_4_life]

They wouldn't need to los the fa cup final, just get there, but that is probably our best chance since we will most probably finish in 7th place.

[LA Rover]

Another scenario then -

Middlesbrough win the UEFA Cup and lose in the cup final. Surely then 7th place would get a UEFA place?

393440[/snapback]

Aaaahhh....very interesting point...but didn't UEFA do away with defending champs getting automatic qualification? Isn't that why Liverpool were in the situation they were in last year? Surely the rule for Champs League applies to all UEFA competitions?

Can anyone confirm?

[Hughesy]

3 more points on the board for us!! Id rather have the points than the game in hand.

Come on Rovers!!

[dillo_dillo]

[tony gale's mic]

i think rovers have a great chance of getting 4th place..

looking at the run-in...

rovers:

wigan (H) win - 3pts

portsmouth (A) win - 6pts

liverpool (H) lose - 6pts

birmingham (A) win - 9pts

chelsea (H) lose - 9pts

charlton (A) draw - 10 pts

man city (H) win - 13 pts

add to current total 65 pts

spurs:

west brom (h) win - 3pts

newcastle (a) draw - 4pts

man city (h) win - 7pts

everton (a) draw - 8pts

man u (h) lose - 8pts

arsenal (a) draw - 9pts

bolton (h) win - 12pts

west ham (a) draw - 13pts

add to current total 65 pts

bolton:

middlesbrough (a) draw - 1pt

man u (h) lose - 1pt

birmingham (a) - win 4pts

liverpool (a) - lose 4pts

chelsea (h) - lose 4pts

WBA (a) - win 7pts

charlton (h) - win 10pts

spurs (a) - lose 10pts

birmingham (h) - win 13 pts

boro (h) - win 16 pts

add to current total 64 pts .... but the number of games could take its toll...

arsenal:

villa (h) win - 3pts

man u (a) lose - 3pts

WBA (h) win - 6pts

man city (a) - draw 7pts

spurs (h) - draw 8pts

sunderland (a) - win 11 pts

wigan (h) - win 14 pts

portsmouth (a) - draw (due to champions league involvement resting players etc) 15 pts

add to current total 65pts

so going on expected results, rovers and spurs will be neck and neck on points there, although if thats the exact prediction we would be 6th on goal diff most likely.

however i have, for example, said we would lose at home to both liverpool and chelsea, when in fact we could beat liverpool at home (looking at how we perform vs the big teams), and maybe draw with chelsea too. of course we could lose those away bankers too against battling sides so i think its about even.

but hopefully spurs and arsenal will drop points at home or lose some of those predicted drawn matches...and arsenal have champions league to wear them out.

either way right now it looks wide open....but i'm backing us for 6th at least. bolton may have games in hand but theres some tough games.

Edited March 26, 2006 by tony gale's mic

[tonygreenbank]

Did my predictions this morning and I have Rovers finishing with 62 points in 7th; Bolton and Spurs on 65 with Arsenal 4th with 67points. Their run in especially at home is reasonable. I have us only winning 2 more games Wigan and City with 3 away draws and a point against Liverpool. Am I too pessimistic?

[waggy]

very

[greggyk]

Aaaahhh....very interesting point...but didn't UEFA do away with defending champs getting automatic qualification? Isn't that why Liverpool were in the situation they were in last year? Surely the rule for Champs League applies to all UEFA competitions?

Can anyone confirm?

393442[/snapback]

Dont know about the Uefa Cup but if a team wins the champions League and the dont finish in the top 4 (like Arsenal could do) then Arsenal would get the champ league place not 4th place. They changed the rule after the Liverpool mess last season

So Come on Juve on Wednesday!!!!

Also, Im guessing it could be the same in the Uefa cup, meaning that if Boro win the uefa cup, and dont reach the final of the FA Cup, then only top 5 go into europe! With either Charlton or West Ham going to uefa as runner-up

Edited March 26, 2006 by greggyk

[sibbald]

Sorry if I missed it but where does the UEFA cup slot from the league cup go?

[dillo_dillo]

sorry, I forgot 04/05,03/04 season.

Is that right?

Edited March 26, 2006 by dillo_dillo

[brfcshabba]

Boro have just gone 2-1 ahead of Bolton

[Mr. E]

dammit as optimistic as I try to look at things, I don't see us getting that CL spot. We need to do something really special to pull it off, and rely on the other teams slipping a few times.

6th place for a UEFA spot looks more realistic, and I think we'll get it.

[greggyk]

sorry, I forgot 04/05,03/04 season.

Is that right?

393594[/snapback]

dont want to be picky dillo, but Villa did not get into europe the season they finished 6th because United played Millwall in the FA Cup final so Millwall went to Europe. While Boro won the League cup

[philipl]

Before anyone gets too excited, those two seasons saw 4th place with an abnormally low number of points. The previous three seasons were much more usual with 4th collecting between 66 and 71 points.

[grizfoot]

Boro have just gone 2-1 ahead of Bolton

393597[/snapback]

Yeah, Come On Boro !!