[Archived] Punching Above Our Weight

[philipl]

Rovers are not a basket case for external investment but the Walker Trust will only part with the club if they are convinced that the incoming investors will be more generous than they are.

That's a tough call on any non-Rovers supporter.

Tris is right- the Icelanders have got themselves a bit of a bargain with the WHammers.

Think Docklands in 1985 and Upton Park is the equivalent of that now with the Olympics regeneration coming to that part of London.

[Tris]

Maybe your right. But I assume you have been there - do you really think city types will stump up 200 million to live or work in the middle of one of the most blighted areas of the country? I thought I was in a 3rd world country when I first went. Maybe its changed since '95. Anyhoo - irrespective of the real estate angle, I refuse to accept the view that Rovers are a basket case for external investment

I was there a couple of weeks back when we played them - not really the point. Property in London is crazy and the location of Upton Park is far from blighted, for the reasons mentioned earlier.

Maybe this will help.

From Park Royal in noth west London, looking roughly NE towards Wembley which is about 3 miles away. This area is relatively undesirable due to the proximity of Harlesden and Stonebridge.

Centre pic, just above two yellow cranes, you have a couple of relatively small (7 floors) blocks which are new builds - flats. Nearest tube is 15 mins, West End is 50 mins, City is just over an hour. Worlds away from the great location of Upton Park.

Here is an ad for the very cheapest flat in that development - quarter of a million quid for a one bedroom cupboard of a place in a rubbish area way out of town. Most of the flats are two or three beds, the best ones have gone for not far off 7 figures. And they've nearly all sold, despite being months away from completion.

I reckon those blocks are bringing in at least £25 million each, and you could put at least 8 blocks on the site of a small football stadium - and build them higher too. The site being cleared on the right used to be a brewery and you'd just about fit Upton Park onto that space. (You can see the scale of Wembley - it's 3 miles away and still looks massive!)

No investor is going to spend this kind of money without security. Look at West Ham, look at the above facts and figures, and tell me where Rovers + Ewood Park could offer any comparable security - and of course there's no carrot of being able to move the club to a massive new Olympic Stadium 10 mins up the road as an alternative.

I'm afraid you simply can't compare the two. Sky money and gate revenue doesn't even come into the equation.

Edited November 22, 2006 by Tris

[Exiled_Rover]

See, this is why I like this board - well informed discussion. Carry on.

[philipl]

If anyone doubted that the West Ham take over is little more than a property play, read this. I might be wrong but these guys have not come in with a vision to take over the footballing world. A £10m lollipop for Christmas (very nice- will buy two thirds of Tevez) and keep it steady on the management side.

The Guardian blog fails to generate much heat on the subject.

Tris has hit the nail on the button. Apart from residential development which could yield £200m at current prices seven years from now, Upton Park could also be prime office space being decently located between Docklands and the Olympics.

I'll also repeat my oft repeated statement- Abramovich is squillions in on his Chelsea venture despite his massive spending. If he liquidated today, he'd double the money he spent (property values of 13 acres in Chelsea) whilst on its own terms as a football megabrand Chelsea is well on track to be profitable within the business plan timeframe set by Abramovich/Buck/Kenyon.

[SouthAussieRover]

Tris has hit the nail on the button.

Hit the nail on the head!

I agree with Exiled-Rover though.

[Blueboy Downunder]

i don't think we are punching above our weight, as i reckon we should be higher in the table, much higher!!

we began the season with a almost a fully fit squad, as i think it was nelly that was the only long term injury at the time. fast forward to the 23rd of november and in my eyes a combination of poor performances, injuries and so many games in such a short space of time has caught up with us. the sooner we get rediy and nelly back playing again, then you'll see that with a full strength squad we will move up the table.

[Exiled in Toronto]

I was there a couple of weeks back when we played them - not really the point. Property in London is crazy and the location of Upton Park is far from blighted, for the reasons mentioned earlier.

Maybe this will help.

I tried and failed miserably to cut'n'paste a google earth snapshot of Upton Park - it sure don't look much like your picture. It's smack in the middle of one of the poorest areas in the entire country - a gigantic Audley Range. But obviously I do accept property prices even in crappy parts of London are extreme

No investor is going to spend this kind of money without security. Look at West Ham, look at the above facts and figures, and tell me where Rovers + Ewood Park could offer any comparable security

Google Earth Ewood vs Upton Park and I'd say we had 50-100% more land. Don't know if the 'Ammers own a spiffy training ground, but Brockhall must be worth a tidy sum, since houses in Brockhall Village are going for half a million each (I looked at buying one earlier this year.)

I'm afraid you simply can't compare the two. Sky money and gate revenue doesn't even come into the equation.

You can't dimiss turnover of 40 million, soon to Sky-rocket, in a 100 million deal. A useful rule of thumb in buying a business is double the turnover.

I am not saying we are worth 85-100 million, but many on here seem to think we are worth absolutely nothing and are unsellable to an investor. I think in the books Rovers quote an asset value of around 40 million, though of course a buyer wouldn't want to pay that much. These successful entrepreneurs are not plagued with self-doubt, and many must assume that to be sat on an appreciating real estate asset and have a guaranteed substantial increase in income kicking in next year, all they have to do is not resort to the prune juice economics of the past and fuel player salary hyper-inflation to have quite a reasonable business case, plus of course the ego massaging that comes with the territory.

Since we were told that investors simply aren't out there, Villa, Pompey and West Ham have both found theirs. Just how hard are we looking?

[A £10m lollipop for Christmas (very nice- will buy two thirds of Tevez) and keep it steady on the management side.

You crack me up. The Trust's input of 3-6 million is substantial, West Ham's 10 million is a lollipop. Well, Hughes not only won't be getting a lollipop, but he'll be stuck outside the sweetshop with his nose pressed against the window.

Edited November 22, 2006 by Exiled in Toronto

[joey_big_nose]

The only asset we have really, and it is a pretty massive one, is that we are a Premiership football team. I would suggest that every Premiership team apart from Wigan, possibly Reading and Bolton represent more attractive investments than us. Why? Because all those clubs, from Fulham to Middlesborough, have catchment areas that imply serious success entails serious expansions of crowds and revenue, plus the added incentive, in most cases, of having more valuable real estate in town centres.

No one is going to want to buy our club unless either a) They don't have much money so cannot afford a more attractive investment- and thus will not provide us with much cash They have some special attachment to the club.

Who have been bought out by investors with serious money in the last ten years? Chelsea, West Ham, Spurs, Liverpool, Man Utd, Newcastle, Birmingham City, Aston Villa, Fulham, Portsmouth. All crucially big city clubs. The best the likes of us and Wigan can hope for is that a local individual will sort us out with some cash. Which, amazingly fortunately, did happen for both our teams.

Indeed on the surface of it if I was a foreign investor looking for a club to play with, and possibly makes some money from, I would consider the likes of Leeds, Cardiff City and Sheffield Wednesday before us depending on debt. Why? Bigger potential crowds, larger local incomes, larger possibility of expanding revenue.

I will eat a row of hats if any foreign investor comes in and invests serious amounts of money in our transfer budget. It would be insanity.

[Neil Weaver]

Google Earth Ewood vs Upton Park and I'd say we had 50-100% more land. Don't know if the 'Ammers own a spiffy training ground, but Brockhall must be worth a tidy sum, since houses in Brockhall Village are going for half a million each (I looked at buying one earlier this year.)

EiT, just on this point. Genuine question, do we own all the land at Brockhall? Even if we do, you suggesting we move out and sell it all? Yep we might make a few bob but we'd have to build training facilities elsewhere = cost.

By the way, on the basic question of whether land around Upton Park might be worth much soon. Before Canary Wharf etc., bet the land around the Isle of Dogs wasn't too pricy. If the Olympics have a similar effect to Canary Wharf, wouldn't be at all suprised to see land prices in E London follow a similar path to those of the Isle of Dogs.

[Alex Rover]

I'm not sure West Ham are a good comparison. Regardless of the location it's still in London / South East and support-wise they pretty much have the whole of Essex to call on with most the residents thinking of themselves as displaced cockney's and West Ham being the archetypical East-end club.

[thenodrog]

............. I would suggest that every Premiership team apart from Wigan, possibly Reading and Bolton represent more attractive investments than us. Why? Because all those clubs, from Fulham to Middlesborough, have catchment areas that imply serious success entails serious expansions of crowds and revenue, plus the added incentive, in most cases, of having more valuable real estate in town centres.

Alternatively if Lancashire was home to just one club............

I admit that it's taking far more time than I initially expected but slowly and surely you are all getting there. Just like 'Highlander'...... There can only be one!

[Alex Rover]

Just like 'Highlander'...... There can only be one!

Inverness Caledonian Thistle?

[thenodrog]

Nice one.

[joey_big_nose]

Alternatively if Lancashire was home to just one club............

I admit that it's taking far more time than I initially expected but slowly and surely you are all getting there. Just like 'Highlander'...... There can only be one!

Whooooooah there. All I was saying was that no one is likely to invest in us. Personally, I think we are doing fine without investment and can continue in that vein provided we keep good management. We are in the same boat as most clubs in the league and remain very competitive.

[Fife Rover]

Alternatively if Lancashire was home to just one club............

I admit that it's taking far more time than I initially expected but slowly and surely you are all getting there. Just like 'Highlander'...... There can only be one!

So Theno, are you advocating the Lancashire Utd scene in the hope that some billionaire or consortium will see it as a good investment, or are you genuinely looking at it as a solution to the present woes of all true football supporters in the area?

I am prepared to predict that before very long (say within 10 years) unless there is a complete reversal of the present trends in football the last remaining TRUE football fans will have settled for happy memories of the way things used to be and found something else to do.

Personally I would honestly rather see Rovers and all the existing Lancashire clubs playing each other in the Conference than continue as things are. At least we that still supported our teams would then see genuine football (albeit at a lower technical standard) played by mainly local lads that loved the game, instead of hugely overpaid and largely disinterested foreigners, diving and cheating all the time.

P.S. I do NOT mean to imply that English players don't cheat as well. I believe the WORST offenders do tend to be from mediteranean and East European countries, but mainly that Big Money is the REAL cause of it all.

Edited November 22, 2006 by Fife Rover

[joey_big_nose]

Personally I would honestly rather see Rovers and all the existing Lancashire clubs playing each other in the Conference than continue as things are. At least we that still supported our teams would then see genuine football (albeit at a lower technical standard) played by mainly local lads that loved the game, instead of hugely overpaid and largely disinterested foreigners, diving and cheating all the time.

As nice as that sounds Fife, if it were generally true then Accy would be averaging 20k a week at the moment while we were in front of a man and a dog. People like to see good football.

The falling attendances across the game, to me anyway, seem more to do with lack of competition (same top four every year), rising gate price and availability of TV games than anything else. Diving needs to be stamped out in the interest of fairness, but I don't really think it drives away crowds.

[thenodrog]

Personally I would honestly rather see Rovers and all the existing Lancashire clubs playing each other in the Conference than continue as things are. At least we that still supported our teams would then see genuine football (albeit at a lower technical standard) played by mainly local lads that loved the game, instead of hugely overpaid and largely disinterested foreigners, diving and cheating all the time.

1. Mainly through geographical reasons you don't go anyway and there is no problem with that whatsoever. But Fife you are no longer a paying customer so your personal opinion has as much value to the accountants and mgment at BRFC as a chocolate fireguard.

2. Darwen v Chorley, Clitheroe v Fleetwood, Morecambe v Rossendale playing together would hardly fill the JW lower. Who the hell in this day and age would go to watch that? They'll struggle to find a ref soon! Even I'd be off to the pub to watch City v Sheff Utd or whoever.

So I'm afraid thats that. Your sentiments are romantic, or fanciful whatever but completely daft as an argument.