[Archived] Rovers Sold ??

[RevidgeBlue]

We'd also need to invest far more than £18million (that is on transfer fees alone) I'd suggest to be regularly challenging for the Champions League. Even then it can mess up. Spurs probably spent much more than that last season (albeit recouping money from the Carrick sale) and still only ended up back in the Uefa Cup again.

The numbers don't seem to add up.

Although to be fair, if you spend wisely enough the players in question should see their worth increase, or at the very least hold their value.

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

I just hope its all sorted out soon,at least we we will know where we stand and how much coin we have.

Then its simply a case of there by the grace of god.

[blue phil]

Whatever the figures , the main question is whether the money generated by the greater marketing or business expertise of the new people outweighs the amount going to be taken out by them .

Personally I can't see it . We'd be better off just hiring the relevant top consultants than risking all in the hands of DW et al . My gut instinct would be to trust him and his mates about as far as I could throw them .

But then again the trustees seem intent on selling and so it's a matter of getting the best deal possible ......put me in the depressed , pessimistic camp for the time being .

Oh - and let's keep this thread in the realms of reality and stop talking about breaking into the top 4 !

[FourLaneBlue]

I disagree on the playing side, the figures could easily be much lesser to allow Rovers to make a concerted push for 4th spot.

Bellamy for 7-8m

Midfielder for 3m

right back for 2m

forward on a loan deal

That lot would seriously complement Rovers current squad

That's not enough to guarantee anything though. If all the buys went perfectly (and Hughes is due a dud sometime) it might give us a chance. To be like the Man U/Chelseas/Liverpools and be there or thereabouts every year we would need to consistently spend more than that every year.

So...how do the new owners spend that and take out profit for their pockets? A very risky policy when West Ham/Spurs/others are likely to be doing the same thing and most if not all will miss out on Champs League riches.

[1864roverite]

What I meant FLB is that Rovers current squad can give anyone a game and we can certainly perform against the top 8 clubs and take points both home and away. I see those mentioned additions as well as the return of Reid, Savage and Oijer giving Rovers the impetus to perform and take points against the lesser lights of the league where we can evidently see Rovers have failed in recent years.

If Rovers can take say 13-15 points off the bottom 5 and continue to perform liek we have then we will see BRFC making the push for the 4th spot. Look at the points difference from last season and look at the games we really shoul have won and I reckon Rovers could have taken 4th spot.

[krislu]

Whatever happens I just can not see us getting that 4th spot any time soon. We are miles behind the top four, and it will take a whole lot more than £20m to catch up with them.

[tcj_jones]

To be able to compete with the likes of the top three, I think we would need £100 + and at least three seasons to build the team together.

[Anti-Dingle-Brigade]

To be able to compete with the likes of the top three, I think we would need £100 + and at least three seasons to build the team together.

I'll chip in if you like

[Dr Gonzo]

I think we would need £100

Probably a bit more than that, but i know what you mean...

[benhben]

So is there still no real infomation come out about when the takeover will take place? We are running the risk of leaving it too late to make any impression in the transfer market.

[tcj_jones]

I'll chip in if you like

You know what I mean

[Paul]

Whatever the figures , the main question is whether the money generated by the greater marketing or business expertise of the new people outweighs the amount going to be taken out by them .

John Williams has often told the FF and others all surpluses at Rovers are ploughed back into the squad. This gives the manager every opportunity to improve the squad, push us forward and hopefully increase revenues to keep the cycle going etc. JW has also said the real answer to Rovers problems, IMV most revolve around attendances, is success on the pitch. It is very difficult to see the current Williams' policy continuing after any takeover.

As Revidge says a top 4 spot generates around £18-20m which is hardly a big deal given the investment required to achieve that result. Plus 6-7 other clubs are chasing this spot and the likelihood of Rovers making it are no better than 6-1. I can understand the arguement put forward by those who say £20m will see us challenging for the CL, it might for a season. Though suggesting we do it with a couple of loan deals is stretching things a little.

Looking at this through a blue and white haze it's easy to put together reasons why the club is attractive to investors. Well managed at board level, great facilities, no debt, arguably best young manager in the PL, good squad. The issue is none of this answers the question of why invest? The club is going to cost £60-70m, whatever the dreamers may think a sustained tilt (4-5 seasons) at the CL will cost around £150m and the cost will be ongoing. Manchester United, the Champions, have spent £50m to try and ensure they stay at the top, how much does it cost to catch up? If we want to play CL football I'd guess most of our squad will expect to earn £2-3m per season and that's after buying them. Some very average footballers are being sold for and earning ridiculous amounts of money.

Add to this Arsenal, Chelsea, United all have some real "bums on seats" players/names. Rovers, and most other clubs don't. For example whoever David Ginola played for my wife would always come to the game! One signing I'd get excited about would be Tevez, I think others would too. I read he's being hawked around for £30m, well lets say he costs £15m, there will be another £15m for wages on on a 5 year deal. So that's one player £30m over five years and we are going to challenge for the CL on £20m plus a couple of loan deals according to some opinions?

There may be a market of billions of people in Asia but it will take an extensive and sustained marketing operation to convince them to wear blue and white. As a boy in the south my mates supported Manchester United, the OT management have a 40 year head start on us in the marketing field. Frankly we may as well try and take on Bill Gates at selling operating systems.

Much as I would love to see the club in the top four or higher I don't believe any of this adds up. Instead of building dreams of how easy it is to achieve the top 4 fans should be asking any new investor three questions:

Where will the money come from?

How will the investment be sustained?

How do the investors intend to make profit?

Until these are answered I shall remain deeply suspicious of any invetsor's motivation and committment to the business. We've already seen billions siphoned out of the clubs by players, agents, huge transfer fees. Now we will see further billions creamed off by the new investors. Hey whatever happened to the people's game?

I believe in Blackburn Rovers as it stands today. Any investor / new owner starts from scratch as far as I'm concerned and that is the challenge. JW has real trouble winning hearts and minds, how will Daniel Williams (or others) win over many, many more?

[stuwilky]

This "no debt" line is confusing me. On the ground that I believe it not to be true.

[mike at picture]

This "no debt" line is confusing me. On the ground that I believe it not to be true.

Care to ellaborate Stu?

[stuwilky]

Care to ellaborate Stu?

WEll, the figure was circa £20m, then the trust effectively wrote off £14m of debt by converting it to share capital last year sometime.

The declared figure in the accounts last summer was debt of £14m - plus whatever we have lost this year (conservatively this will be £6m)

[b12_simon]

This "no debt" line is confusing me. On the ground that I believe it not to be true.

AFAIK we sorted most or all of our debt with the £17m we got for Duffer.

[stuwilky]

AFAIK we sorted most or all of our debt with the £17m we got for Duffer.

Not according to the published accounts we didnt. I wouldnt be at all surprised if the figure was over 20mill in the financial year about to end - unless the trust have done something special for us.....

[modes98]

unless the trust have done something special for us.....

Like get outside investment from Nutall Investments

A debt of £20m isn't bad compared to others and i would hope that any takeover offer would have to include funds to remove that debt or at least make that amount available to spend on new players.

[Paul]

WEll, the figure was circa £20m, then the trust effectively wrote off £14m of debt by converting it to share capital last year sometime.

The declared figure in the accounts last summer was debt of £14m - plus whatever we have lost this year (conservatively this will be £6m)

Think you're right there Stu. As the "no debt" line is chucked around quite frequently I guess most people, probably myself included, look at in realtion to the rest of the PL where debts of £50, 60, 70m and more are commonplace.

[Atomicrover]

My wife says we shouldn't worry so much about debt, she doesn't.......................

[Hughesy]

I took my figures from an article on finance on the sportinglife website which said that Arsenals run last season (last 16), compared to Tottenhams run in the UEFA was worth alot more. £5 million compared to £30 million. Thats where i got my £25 million difference.

Also as of next season each place will be worth approx £700k. The minimum difference in sky TV from next season compared to the last is £12 million.

Those numbers Hughesy are way off....

Hughesey, hypothetically if we were to finish 4th as opposed to 10th that would produce roughly another 3m from the Premiership. (6 places at 500k per place)

If we then qualified for the Champions League proper, (no guarantees whatsoever there) we'd get around 10m and if we qualified for the last sixteen (a very tall order) we'd get another 5m.

So at best that's an extra 18m plus additional gate receipts. And it's an extremely optimistic scenario .

As stu says your figures are miles out.

[Jimbo]

Leeds sold out to the Devil on a bunch of "What Ifs?" - I hope the club doesn't get sold on the expectation of top 4 and CL semis every year otherwise JW might be buying us back for a penny when we're in Div 3

[stuwilky]

I took my figures from an article on finance on the sportinglife website which said that Arsenals run last season (last 16), compared to Tottenhams run in the UEFA was worth alot more. £5 million compared to £30 million. Thats where i got my £25 million difference.

We wouldnt get close to either of those figures should we get to the same stages though.

[blue phil]

John Williams has often told the FF and others all surpluses at Rovers are ploughed back into the squad. This gives the manager every opportunity to improve the squad, push us forward and hopefully increase revenues to keep the cycle going etc. JW has also said the real answer to Rovers problems, IMV most revolve around attendances, is success on the pitch. It is very difficult to see the current Williams' policy continuing after any takeover.

I won't quote all of your post , Paul , but it sums up all my fears .

On this particular point , I know that JW is all too aware of the attendance problem - hence the recent intiatives . Hopefully it has been drummed home to any investors that if the policy is not continued then attracting and keeping players will not be easy with a half empty ground ....For a club our size it would be all too easy to get stuck in a downward spiral , especially with a public unconvinced about the motives of the new owners.

[yoda]

Just read this on the BBC sport site

"Indian steel magnate Lakshmi Mittal had also been linked with a prospective move to buy Blues, who won promotion to the Premiership in April." the Blues being the big club from the midlands.

With the sizeable Asian population in the Blackburn area, surely (and the rest of the readers )some one knows this guy and can point him in the right direction of ewood park, we are an infinatly better option than the porn shop