[Archived] Global Recession Looming

[revolutionrock!]

Right im not clued up on all these, so what will a global recession mean fro us?

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Good to see you hang on my every word, Jason, you might learn how to be wrong gracefully. Even the quotes you give above show that your original contention was misplaced to say the least.

As it is, I am wrong occaisionally and you are correct very rarely.

FACT, the Tories were in Government and expessly rejected the notion of central bank independence,

FACT, Labour came to power and immediately gave the Bank of England its independence. That single act probably won them the next two elections.

The fact is, you are actually incorrect a lot with your dreamy, idealist. Self-grandiose opinions.

TRY READING PIP, I never said that the Tories made the BOE independent I simply stated that much of the theory and actual plans that Brown used was actually planned and written by the Conservatives.

Are you denying that Independence for the BOE had nothing to do with the Tories, Yes Lawson rejected the proposal by a Tory think-tank, but that wasn’t my argument: I simply stated that the a majority of the plans put in place by Brown were actually Tory initiative and I commend Brown & Blair for having the foresight in doing so

Your such a smart pompous arse to boot.

[philipl]

It was not a Tory initiative.

Is that simple and unpompous enough for you?

[stuwilky]

No-one is trying to talk us into a ‘recession’, cold-hard facts indicate that the economy is set for an extremely difficult period.

If you’re talking about predicted growth then I suppose you’re relying on the chancellor’s predicted figures of 2%, virtually every creditable financial commentator or fiscal institution outside of the treasury puts that figure quite considerably lower. It won’t take too much of a dip in the UK economy to slip from 1.5% growth to negative growth. Especially when the UK economy has one of the largest deficits in the Western World.

Remember Labour for the seventh cycle running has had to re-adjust their optimistic growth forecasts, I expect from what ive read and understood that the chancellor will adjust his rosy looking forecast within this run.

Sorry Bazza, regardless of your final post, we are not in a falling economu, never mind the 3 successive quarters of negaitive growth to indicate a recession. yet the way people talk about where we are now its the end of the world.

Slowdown? Possibly?

Recession? Not for at least another year, if at all.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

It was not a Tory initiative.

Is that simple and unpompous enough for you?

Are you dumb?

It is there in black & white in blairs memoirs in the treasury vaults that Brown used the exsisting Tory plans

[philipl]

So the Tories passed the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 then?

[Bazzanotsogreat]

So the Tories passed the Federal Reserve Act of 1913 then?

What has US policy got to do with UK legislation? If you’re trying to be clever it hasn’t worked. The US may have been the first nation to create an independent central bank , but that is not my point and you know it.

This dogmatic, argumentative approach is extremely childish. You are trying to twist my original post and turn into something which it is not, mind you I come to expect such silliness from a man with so much time on his hands

Again to re-iterate my original point: It was that the ideology and indeed much of the planning behind browns declaration of independence was carried out by the Tories during the 1980’s & 90’s, Labour infact used much of the original Tory proposals in their 1997 treasury documentation. The Tories didn’t have the political will or foresight to put their own plans in practise.

[philipl]

OK if I accept your arguments then the Liberal Party were the architects of the global post-second world war economic settlement.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

OK if I accept your arguments then the Liberal Party were the architects of the global post-second world war economic settlement.

Talk about taking threads off topic; what has the Marshall plan got to do with this thread?

This is getting ridiculous; it’s their in plain black & white. Either you can’t read or you’re just been your usual argumentative, dogmatic self. What is that you can’t accept? It’s quite simple really; much of the preparatory research into BOE independence was prepared by the Tories. Labour adopted the Tory research and put into practice

[philipl]

You are repeating yourself.

Brown acted to make the Bank of England independent within 48 hours of appointment. Of all the post-War Chancellors, Brown had his own accolytes and trusted inner-sanctum. I am certain that his own team had done their own research and modelling and they didn't happen upon a Central Office draft when Ken Clarke drove his Transt hire van away from number 11 and say: "hey this is hot stuff, let's implement that."

At the end of the day, the Tories could have implemented Bank of England independence and chose not to. The fall out from Black Monday would not have been so bad had Ken Clarke granted BoE independence on taking office. Ken was an excellent Chancellor but he did not do the one thing that might have given his Government a ghost of a chance of avoiding the 1997 pasting.

So you are arguing we should give the Tories credit for Bank of England independence when they themselves explicitly rejected it.

The technical term for that line of reasoning is rubbish.

By way of history, both Keynes and Beveridge were Liberal Party members. And the Liberal Party did support their plans unlike the Conservative Party which rejected Bank of England independence and if I remember correctly, voted against the move when Brown presented it to Parliament.

Go and find some more pathetic adjectives to throw in my direction.

[thenodrog]

Aye, great minds and all that Gord .

Good to see you hang on my every word, Jason, you might learn how to be wrong gracefully. Even the quotes you give above show that your original contention was misplaced to say the least.

As it is, I am wrong occaisionally and you are correct very rarely.

Theno, please don't bait people by using names.

and before you all complain, I know jim does his fair bit of baiting as well. Well please leave it out?

Two posts either side of mine doing the same and I get the warning! Must say that I don't really care what anybody calls me but what about this Den?

http://www.brfcs.co.uk/mb/index.php?s=&amp...st&p=592980

But................ I suppose a bit of familiarity is OK between fellow mods eh?

[Bazzanotsogreat]

You are repeating yourself.

Brown acted to make the Bank of England independent within 48 hours of appointment. Of all the post-War Chancellors, Brown had his own accolytes and trusted inner-sanctum. I am certain that his own team had done their own research and modelling and they didn't happen upon a Central Office draft when Ken Clarke drove his Transt hire van away from number 11 and say: "hey this is hot stuff, let's implement that."

At the end of the day, the Tories could have implemented Bank of England independence and chose not to. The fall out from Black Monday would not have been so bad had Ken Clarke granted BoE independence on taking office. Ken was an excellent Chancellor but he did not do the one thing that might have given his Government a ghost of a chance of avoiding the 1997 pasting.

So you are arguing we should give the Tories credit for Bank of England independence when they themselves explicitly rejected it.

The technical term for that line of reasoning is rubbish.

By way of history, both Keynes and Beveridge were Liberal Party members. And the Liberal Party did support their plans unlike the Conservative Party which rejected Bank of England independence and if I remember correctly, voted against the move when Brown presented it to Parliament.

Go and find some more pathetic adjectives to throw in my direction.

[den]

Two posts either side of mine doing the same and I get the warning! Must say that I don't really care what anybody calls me but what about this Den?

http://www.brfcs.co.uk/mb/index.php?s=&amp...st&p=592980

But................ I suppose a bit of familiarity is OK between fellow mods eh?

Well in future I'll just call you The.

[thenodrog]

Just musing but this global recession will undoubtedly be crap for most people BUT it might well prove advantageous for BRFC by bringing some of the big spenders / big borrowers down to our level..... or better still below our level. I would think having large amounts of borrowed money might not be the perfect position to be in.

[broadsword]

Sorry Bazza, regardless of your final post, we are not in a falling economu, never mind the 3 successive quarters of negaitive growth to indicate a recession. yet the way people talk about where we are now its the end of the world.

Slowdown? Possibly?

Recession? Not for at least another year, if at all.

Yes, but it seems we are talking ourselves into a recession.

Just seen on the Beeb's website, the share prices of bank's have taken a real doing today.

As far as I can tell (I am not Alvin Hall), the economy is built on easy credit, so once credit is harder to obtain, market confidence plummets. It just seems to be snow-balling from this. Would further interest rate cuts help?

As I say, I'm no expert, so I might have said somethign daft trhere, I don't know ...

[American]

800 million USD out of the British economy today just from one person (Joseph Lewis). Fortunately, he's one of the owners of Spuds!

[philipl]

Bear Sterns effectively nationalised with JP Morgan as the agent bank.

Shame Britain did not do the same ahead of the Northern Rock crisis perhaps but on the other hand BS has been too smooth by half.

In terms of moral hazzard, the people in Northern Rock who made the mistakes have really felt the pain, don't think applies in Bear Sterns other than the shareholders.

Interesting table in the Telegraph this morning: As of June 2007, foreigners owned $6,007bn of long-term US debt. (Equal to 66pc of the entire US federal debt). The biggest holdings by country are, in billions: Japan (901), China (870), UK (475), Luxembourg (424), Cayman Islands (422), Belgium (369), Ireland (176), Germany (155), Switzerland (140), Bermuda (133), Netherlands (123), Korea (118), Russia (109), Taiwan (107), Canada (106), Brazil (103).

Interesting that Israel and UAE are not there in their own names.

This was published because only 5% of the last US bonds got bought by non-US purchasers yesterday. The Italian Government bond sale was a complete flop- first time that has happened since the Euro was introduced.

These are very worrying times.

[revolutionrock!]

Right im not clued up on all these, so what will a global recession mean fro us?

?

[philipl]

?

This Max Hastings article gives an idea of the not very pleasant future in prospect.

[blue phil]

Just musing but this global recession will undoubtedly be crap for most people BUT it might well prove advantageous for BRFC by bringing some of the big spenders / big borrowers down to our level.....

Trouble is Gord.....(oops... ) there'll be fewer fans at Ewood to watch them ....

[blue phil]

800 million USD out of the British economy today just from one person (Joseph Lewis).

Aye - he was British before ....

Bet he's rediscovering his Jewish roots no doubt

[thenodrog]

Trouble is Gord.....(oops... ) there'll be fewer fans at Ewood to watch them ....

Why is a recession likely to cause mass deaths of BRFC supporters? Surely with our prices Ewood will be filled by hard up Mancs and scousers or will it not work like that?

[blue phil]

I don't want to sound like the voice of the working class but any recession , slump or whatever the term is will hit people hard first in places like Blackburn .

I wonder what people will get rid of first - their footy tickets or their Sky boxes ?

[revolutionrock!]

I don't want to sound like the voice of the working class but any recession , slump or whatever the term is will hit people hard first in places like Blackburn .

I wonder what people will get rid of first - their footy tickets or their Sky boxes ?

NONE!

Come on people, its not all doom and gloom!

[thenodrog]

Just musing but this global recession will undoubtedly be crap for most people BUT it might well prove advantageous for BRFC by bringing some of the big spenders / big borrowers down to our level..... or better still below our level. I would think having large amounts of borrowed money might not be the perfect position to be in.

and if one green bottle should accidentally fall..............

http://www.brfcs.co.uk/mb/index.php?s=&amp...st&p=595149

Good stuff eh? Nice one Philip