[Archived] Global Recession Looming

[philipl]

Very prescient of you.

[philipl]

Picking up on two comments in this morning's papers:

Anatloe Kaletski in the Times explained that it was not the sub-prime which collapsed Bear Sterns but the marketability of US Government paper. Bear had under-pinned all its risky business with US Government securities but when it needed some liquid cash, nobody wanted to buy them. Putting it simply there is too much of it out there and not enough people to buy it.

Nobel prize-winning economist Joseph Stiglitz in the Independent commented that the Iraq war had effectively made this crisis far far worse than it would have been otherwise. The financial costs of Iraq are getting unfathomable.

Wall Street is as likely to stop Bush attacking Iran as anybody.

The sovereign wealth funds (arab and far eastern governments) who bailed out the banks in the first round by buying 10% chunks in them are apparently out of the game now as a combination of the dollar decline and share price volatility means they have no more appetite for more instant losses.

Closer to home, it seems Mike Ashley took a £100m+ hit betting HBOS shares would rise just as a bunch of guys were cobbling together the story that HBOS would fail. On the other side of things, the HBOS directors who all bought shares as the attack on HBOS gathered pace are all now sitting on handsome gains.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

FSA admits failings over Northern Rock

[RibbleValleyRover]

House Price Growth is Weakest since 1996

[JAL]

House Price Growth is Weakest since 1996

The housing market is ridiculously high and unrealistic they still need to come down by around 15-20% for me.

The next six months will be very interesting as rising costs continue to bite hard.

[RibbleValleyRover]

We could be heading towards a real turning point soon.

Surveys and projected forecasts suggest inflation could rise dramatically, but at the same time our economy is slowing down.

So what will the bank do, cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth? or increase rates in order to curb rising inflation?

[1864roverite]

I took out my bills today for utilities and council tax.

In 6 years my eleccy bil has doubled.

My gas bill has doubled.

My water bill has doubled.

My council tax has doubled.

My wages have increased by a total of 8.3% in that time.

There is going to be a time when all the good things in life are so costly it saddens me to reside in this country.

[DanLad]

We could be heading towards a real turning point soon.

Surveys and projected forecasts suggest inflation could rise dramatically, but at the same time our economy is slowing down.

So what will the bank do, cut interest rates to stimulate economic growth? or increase rates in order to curb rising inflation?

I think inflation - in real terms - is already high. I'm not having the official stats. Just look at the bills as stated above and your shopping bill.

[thenodrog]

I took out my bills today for utilities and council tax.

In 6 years my eleccy bil has doubled.

My gas bill has doubled.

My water bill has doubled.

My council tax has doubled.

My wages have increased by a total of 8.3% in that time.

There is going to be a time when all the good things in life are so costly it saddens me to reside in this country.

Impossible / You're talking shyyte / You're a Tory

Delete as appropriate 1864 cos according to the (best Chancellor ever) Gordy inflation is only running at 2-3% per annum..... and he couldn't be lying through his teeth could he?

[broadsword]

Impossible / You're talking shyyte / You're a Tory

Delete as appropriate 1864 cos according to the (best Chancellor ever) Gordy inflation is only running at 2-3% per annum..... and he couldn't be lying through his teeth could he?

As measured by the common basket of good, but *not* including mortgage repayments, of course. Because they would be a poor indicator of inflation, naturally.

:S

[1864roverite]

I take it you had sampled a few last night TND

2002 my water bill was £205 MINUS a £5'ver for dd payment, this year is £404.

2002 my monthly dd for gas was £24.50, this year its £52.00

2002 my monthly dd for eleccy was £34.00, this year its £70.00

2002 my council tax was a hell of a lot lower than the bill I received of £1149 for this year.

I am now considering supporting a new and upcoming party that will sort out the mess. It is called The British Peoples Party, with a motto of "We are British and deserve to be counted and not ignored".

[JAL]

I take it you had sampled a few last night TND

2002 my water bill was £205 MINUS a £5'ver for dd payment, this year is £404.

2002 my monthly dd for gas was £24.50, this year its £52.00

2002 my monthly dd for eleccy was £34.00, this year its £70.00

2002 my council tax was a hell of a lot lower than the bill I received of £1149 for this year.

I am now considering supporting a new and upcoming party that will sort out the mess. It is called The British Peoples Party, with a motto of "We are British and deserve to be counted and not ignored".

Must do this myself, the inflation figure put out by whatever government department for me is totally corrupt and doesnt reflect true rising costs like the ones you've pointed out.

I remember a couple of years ago a top city analyst said that they guess the inflation figure and that we shouldnt go off it as its inaccurate.

I wouldnt be suprised if the true inflation figure was currently around 10 per cent after you've added fuel and food costs to the overall bill.

[92er]

I take it you had sampled a few last night TND

2002 my water bill was £205 MINUS a £5'ver for dd payment, this year is £404.

2002 my monthly dd for gas was £24.50, this year its £52.00

2002 my monthly dd for eleccy was £34.00, this year its £70.00

2002 my council tax was a hell of a lot lower than the bill I received of £1149 for this year.

I am now considering supporting a new and upcoming party that will sort out the mess. It is called The British Peoples Party, with a motto of "We are British and deserve to be counted and not ignored".

Are you on on -line dual fuel deals?

[philipl]

The world opinion seems to be divided in two.

This is a normal downturn with its own peculiarities or if the IMF are correct this is a massive collapse in the banking system with the USA itself needing to be bailed out by concerted global action.

I haven't seen anything quite as spectacular as this in the doom-sayers articles.

I know there are many many flaws to the parallel I am going to draw but,

a group of extreme right-wing neocon economists were given free reign over the Russian economy in 1990 and the Russian economy progressively collapsed in 1997/8 with a 25% retrenchment in GDP when the fall out had finished made much worse for 90% of the population by a dramatic shift in resources from the many to the few.

the same economists were given a free reign by George W Bush over the American economy in 2000. What are we seeing in 2007/8?

[philipl]

And the outlook is unrelentingly grim in the UK. Expect house prices to be 30% lower this time in 2010.

And inflation to soar on the collapsing non-petro pound.

The simplest economics answer is to stoke demand by inflows- inflows of capital to buy relatively cheap British assets and inflows of people to shore up housing demand.

3% of British GDP lost in the American sub-prime debacle.

I am increasingly of the opinion that the UK is going to suffer disproportionately and uniquely badly in this downturn. All the indicators look very sick indeed.

If Brown is lucky, his Premiership will be an unfortunate footnote in history. However, he could preside in number 10 over a wholesale destruction of everything he achieved at number 11 and more besides.

[JAL]

I was told a couple of years ago that the Walker trust was heavily into commercial and retail property not only in this country but world wide.

The old walker steel building at Guide is still empty but the government have intoduced new business rates on all commercial property's that stand empty for a year previously they were exempt from business rate tax if it was empty for the year but the new legislation means they have to pay at least 6 months of the empty buildings tax rates.

If so the Walker trust must be losing some money, maybe a good reason not to invest futher in Rovers.

[pg]

1864 - what are you experiencing will happen in any country where essential services have been privatised, and ended in the hands of investment banks.

Don't come to Australia, as we are now committed to that same road. Water will be privatised in Melbourne in about five years, in order to make a huge desalination plant economically viable. Our energy markets were privatised about 8 years ago.

[philipl]

I was told a couple of years ago that the Walker trust was heavily into commercial and retail property not only in this country but world wide.

The old walker steel building at Guide is still empty but the government have intoduced new business rates on all commercial property's that stand empty for a year previously they were exempt from business rate tax if it was empty for the year but the new legislation means they have to pay at least 6 months of the empty buildings tax rates.

If so the Walker trust must be losing some money, maybe a good reason not to invest futher in Rovers.

JAL, I think you might find that British Steel bought that building along with the rest of the Walker Steel business back in 1990. No idea what Jack Walker did with the money he got for it mind you.

Anything you sold back in 1990 currently affecting your investment decisions?

[JAL]

JAL, I think you might find that British Steel bought that building along with the rest of the Walker Steel business back in 1990. No idea what Jack Walker did with the money he got for it mind you.

Anything you sold back in 1990 currently affecting your investment decisions?

From what i was (local accountant is the source) told Bitish Steel bought the business but not the building or land, the area has since been developed and is now called Walker Park.

The Walkers did have assests or rental space in canary wharf dont know how much but thats probably five years ago now so things could probably have changed.

Also the business that the Walkers sold at the time to British Steel DIDNT TRADE UNDER THE NAME WALKERSTEEL but some other name something like 'C&J metals' or similar to this, hence the Walkersteel name was adopted by Howard Walker for his new business a couple of years ago which also currently sponsors the Blackburn end as the walkersteel stand.

[Cheshireblue]

From what i was (local accountant is the source) told Bitish Steel bought the business but not the building or land, the area has since been developed and is now called Walker Park.

The Walkers did have assests or rental space in canary wharf dont know how much but thats probably five years ago now so things could probably have changed.

Also the business that the Walkers sold at the time to British Steel DIDNT TRADE UNDER THE NAME WALKERSTEEL but some other name something like 'C&J metals' or similar to this, hence the Walkersteel name was adopted by Howard Walker for his new business a couple of years ago which also currently sponsors the Blackburn end as the walkersteel stand.

I wont bore you with the details, but there are still a number of exemptions that mean you don't have to pay business rates if the bulding is empty. Chief amongst them is the fact that the building is unsafe or unfit to be let, which I would venture to suggest a disused steel works is.

[1864roverite]

"Don't come to Australia,"

Am hoping to come for the cricket in a couple of years time, hoping I dont get stung for water rates for a 5 week stay !!!

[Bazzanotsogreat]

a group of extreme right-wing neocon economists were given free reign over the Russian economy in 1990 and the Russian economy progressively collapsed in 1997/8 with a 25% retrenchment in GDP when the fall out had finished made much worse for 90% of the population by a dramatic shift in resources from the many to the few.

the same economists were given a free reign by George W Bush over the American economy in 2000. What are we seeing in 2007/8?

Is Neo-conservative the correct terminology to use in the case of Russia?

Vladimir Putin is also pretty right-wing in both his economic and general policies. Yeltzin was a bumbling alcoholic who unfortunately wasn’t around when a barrel of oil was sold for over a $100 dollars. Let’s not forget that Islamic terrorism has greatly benefited Russia, in the fact that the West has looked for alternative Oil producers instead of being so heavily reliant on Middle-Eastern oil.

The IMF have cut the UK’s growth rate to 1.6%, illustrating how overly optimistic Brown then Darlings predictions have been.

[philipl]

Read it again bazza.

I was referring to the Harvard economists who messed up the liberalisation of Russia then were brought in by the W administration and seem to have had a similar seven to eight year lead time for their efforts to take effect.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Read it again bazza.

I was referring to the Harvard economists who messed up the liberalisation of Russia then were brought in by the W administration and seem to have had a similar seven to eight year lead time for their efforts to take effect.

This is a genuine question.

Please explain who these Harvard Neo-Conservative’s economists are? The only Neo-conservatives I have heard about having any influence within the Whitehouse are people such as Kristol, Podhoretz, Pearle, Wolfawitz and Boulton etc and they had there origins in cold-war left-wing liberalism. Subsequently Kristol changed the direction of the group as he believed that the right suited Israel’s agenda better than the left.

[grizfoot]

Instersting to note that 1 EUR is now worth 0.8011 GBP. I remember when the Euro first started it was much less than that. Shows that the pound is weakening against the euro. Not that I'm suggesting we switch to the euro as there's already lots of evidence to suggest we would encounter problems if we switched over.

Back to the topic of the looming recession, look increasing likely we are going to go into one soon. Cut in interest rate again shows the Bank of England are trying to do the best to boost the economy and ensure we don't fall into one. Problem is the monetary policy doesn't seem to be making much difference at the moment since the highstreet banks are keeping their interest rates at the same level.