[Archived] Global Recession Looming

[Cheshireblue]

Instersting to note that 1 EUR is now worth 0.8011 GBP. I remember when the Euro first started it was much less than that. Shows that the pound is weakening against the euro. Not that I'm suggesting we switch to the euro as there's already lots of evidence to suggest we would encounter problems if we switched over.

Back to the topic of the looming recession, look increasing likely we are going to go into one soon. Cut in interest rate again shows the Bank of England are trying to do the best to boost the economy and ensure we don't fall into one. Problem is the monetary policy doesn't seem to be making much difference at the moment since the highstreet banks are keeping their interest rates at the same level.

The Bank of England base rate is all well and good but is only part of the equation. Unfortunately, the banks cannot actually borrow money at the base rate so they cannot offer to lend to us at that rate.

With the exception of HSBC who fund their mortgages differently to most banks. So if you have a small mortgage and it is up for renewal, they are your boys at the moment.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Britain raises alarm on mortgages

A stark warning to homebuyers that mortgage lending could halve this year on Friday prompted a pledge from Alistair Darling that he would do “everything I possibly can” to restore normality to the housing market.

The Chancellor’s comments – which came after the warning from the Council of Mortgage Lenders – point to an increasing likelihood that the government and Bank of England are poised to announce plans to take over the risky mortgage assets that banks cannot sell – in an attempt to unblock the lending markets

Still waiting to hear who these neo con , Harvard econmists were Pip.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Manufacturers’ selling prices have risen at the fastest rate in more than 20 years over the last 12 months

[thenodrog]

Really ? Show me evidence to support that statement..

Gordon Brown's Tory predecessor as chancellor, Kenneth Clarke, was expected to put up interest rates before the 1997 election but failed to do so for fear of losing votes. Brown's decision to free the Bank from political control after the election meant that politics would never again get in the way of economics.

Giving the Bank independence has led to the longest period of economic growth since the war ; growth has been steady and stable, averaging 2.8 per cent a year, with none of the wild swings of the Tory boom and bust years. Inflation has been consistently low, averaging 2.4 per cent.

Such economic stability, unimaginable under the Tories, has been achieved despite crises such as the Asian financial turmoil in 1998, the dot.com bubble in 2000 and record energy prices.

Since 1997, and in stark contrast to the Tory years, there has been no recession, no run on the pound, no IMF bail-out, and interest rates have not risen higher than 7.5 per cent and have been much lower than that for most of the time.

And still Daily Mail readers moan ....

It appears that the Mail must offer much forward thinking journalism after all Jim.

Only a few months layer and re-reading this thread from the start makes for some entertaining reading now. Jim's post is of course as stupid as can be in his uninformed attempt to defend all things Labour but there are lots more equally hilarious. StuWilky's suggestion on page 4 that we are talking our way into recession is surely mboard gold material.

[Flopsy]

any one watch BBC news this morning?

The main story was the chamber of commerce saying we heading for a further slow down and that it was likely we might have a small recession that lasts a year or so, nothing as bad as the 80's or 90's. How do the beeb report it?

RECESSION

as if it was the worst downturn since the Romans decided it was time to bugger off back to the mainland.

[yoda]

any one watch BBC news this morning?

The main story was the chamber of commerce saying we heading for a further slow down and that it was likely we might have a small recession that lasts a year or so, nothing as bad as the 80's or 90's. How do the beeb report it?

RECESSION

as if it was the worst downturn since the Romans decided it was time to bugger off back to the mainland.

and here is me thinking it was because they got fed up with the Celts gathered together in caves and grooving with a pict

The beeb might have got this one right!

[blue phil]

The main story was the chamber of commerce saying we heading for a further slow down and that it was likely we might have a small recession that lasts a year or so, nothing as bad as the 80's or 90's. How do the beeb report it?

That's strange . Some body or other on the Beeb today (forget who) was saying this recession or downturn or whatever , was set to last for about 5 years . It depends on who you listen to and believe .

I have the feeling that things are getting worse now and in the next couple of years than even the Thatcher era for your normal working man . Inflation is running riot (whatever the fantasy figures the government produce) . Couple that with the downturn , banks crapping themselves , scandalous overspending by the gov't in recent years , and you have serious trouble .

No more boom and bust Brown used to say . Some idiots actually believed him .........Over to you , jim mk2

[DP]

Really BP? But on another thread you recommend investing in property. Not a good choice if we're heading into a 5 year recession eh?

[stuwilky]

StuWilky's suggestion on page 4 that we are talking our way into recession is surely mboard gold material.

Why?

Did we stop talking ourselves into it?

Are we a huge amount closer to recession? How many negative quarters have we had so far?

[blue phil]

Really BP? But on another thread you recommend investing in property. Not a good choice if we're heading into a 5 year recession eh?

Most people who get a mortgage do so over a period of 20 to 25 years , Den

[den]

Most people who get a mortgage do so over a period of 20 to 25 years , Den

??????????????????

[blue phil]

What's all the ??????????? about Den ?

Even if the market is on a downer for 5 years doesn't necessarily mean that buying a house over 20 odd years is a bad investment .

Or am I missing something ?

(Obviously you'd have to own or live in the property until the storm rides out .....)

[American]

I know over here most mortgages last for only about 5 years until either refinanced or the owners move.

[Billy Castell]

We're all doomed. DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED !!!!!

I do wonder if some powerful people are affecting things by saying we're all going to lose our homes. It's been proven that the stock market is based on as much gossip as Heat, so anyone in those circles can talk of a looming crisis, financial meltdown etc. and then it would come about. Maybe some people are talking up the difficulties in order to make the problems bigger, make share prices crash, and then pick up loads of shares on the cheap. Been done before.

[yoda]

We're all doomed. DOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOMED !!!!!

I do wonder if some powerful people are affecting things by saying we're all going to lose our homes. It's been proven that the stock market is based on as much gossip as Heat, so anyone in those circles can talk of a looming crisis, financial meltdown etc. and then it would come about. Maybe some people are talking up the difficulties in order to make the problems bigger, make share prices crash, and then pick up loads of shares on the cheap. Been done before.

Don't let the share prices go down ffs, jim's mining stock will go down the pan!

better to,

Blame everything on the BILDEBERGS

[thenodrog]

What's all the ??????????? about Den ?

Even if the market is on a downer for 5 years doesn't necessarily mean that buying a house over 20 odd years is a bad investment .

Or am I missing something ?

Only that it's not Den who you are debating the point with.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Why?

Did we stop talking ourselves into it?

Are we a huge amount closer to recession? How many negative quarters have we had so far?

Err the last two, if you go on CBI or any other non-government organsational figures. Darlings figures are about 2.5% too optimistic. Coupled with the fact that every single non-government business organisation believe we are in a recession, I’d say you pay them more credence and listen to what the experts say.

It has become all to clear that Brown & Darling are not experts; thus there ridiculously optimistic suggestions of a 1% growth.

[stuwilky]

Err the last two, if you go on CBI or any other non-government organsational figures. Darlings figures are about 2.5% too optimistic. Coupled with the fact that every single non-government business organisation believe we are in a recession, I’d say you pay them more credence and listen to what the experts say.

It has become all to clear that Brown & Darling are not experts; thus there ridiculously optimistic suggestions of a 1% growth.

Give me a link to results of negative growth bazza. Frankly Im too lazy to look.

[thenodrog]

Many interesting opinions, albeit taken with the benefit of hinsight on this thread............. here's a few

Government cannot let any bank go to the wall ; my only criticism is they should have nationalised NR back in October.

Darling is taking the blame but the real culprits are Applegarth and his fellow fat cat executives who caused the mess in the first place. Disenfranchised shareholders should sue them.

Yes they can .

Are people still trying to talk us into a recession?

How many successive quarters of negative growth do we need to be in a recession? 3

How many have we had thus far? I'll let someone else figure it out.

[scotchrover]

Glad Gordon's incharge as he is by far the best man incharge. As he said its no time for an apprentice such as the tory toff David Cameron and his muppet chancellor George Osbourne. After Mr osbourne came up with a £3 billion black whole when showing off his shadow budget.

Anyway the US government decided to buy up all the bad debt with £700 billion and then said you can go and start loaning money again.

It just shows that the free market doesn't work. I have always wondered why we never follow the economic policy of the Scandernaviens as they never seem to be in any trouble.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Glad Gordon's incharge as he is by far the best man incharge. As he said its no time for an apprentice such as the tory toff David Cameron and his muppet chancellor George Osbourne. After Mr osbourne came up with a £3 billion black whole when showing off his shadow budget.

Oh my god

[Billy Castell]

Wasn't David Cameron somehow involved when there was that ERM crisis in the early 1990's?

[grizfoot]

Wasn't David Cameron somehow involved when there was that ERM crisis in the early 1990's?

It seems he was indeed working alongside Norman Lamont at the time of the ERM Crisis, from Wikipedia:

"Cameron was working for Lamont at the time of Black Wednesday, when pressure from currency speculators forced the Pound sterling out of the European Exchange Rate Mechanism. Cameron, who was unknown to the public at the time, can be spotted at Lamont's side in news film of the latter's announcement of British withdrawal from the European Exchange Rate Mechanism that evening."

[stuwilky]

How many quarters of negative growth have we had Gordon? You can quote me all you like, I didnt give a prediction (although I would have predicted a recession as the "talking us into it" has never disappeared).

Thanks for remembering me though!

[RovertheHill]

It just shows that the free market doesn't work. I have always wondered why we never follow the economic policy of the Scandernaviens as they never seem to be in any trouble.

I'm sorry but isn't the massive bailout of the banks we've just announced virtually a copy of the model used by the Swedish government in the early 90's? I'm sure I read that somewhere