[Archived] Global Recession Looming

[BuckyRover]

My prediction for next 5 years:

Increase in income tax

Large increase in unemployment

House prices to halve

A change of government would make no difference, there is no money left

[thenodrog]

oops

[Hughesy]

Oh dear!!

Quick question - saw a post in another thread that the Pound is expected to gain on the Euro again - why is that? And when is that going to start happening?

[BiggusLaddus]

Oh dear!!

Quick question - saw a post in another thread that the Pound is expected to gain on the Euro again - why is that? And when is that going to start happening?

Euro is artificially high compared to other currencies and has been due a fall since the whole thing started.

[Hughesy]

Says who?

So when will it start dropping?

[thenodrog]

Says who?

Me n' Biggus laddus. can you not read Hughesy?

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Looking back at some of the posts on the first couple of pages makes extremely interesting reading.

[philipl]

I deal with accountants / brokers / lawyers / bankers every day of my life. I have absolutely no idea what that means.

You mean this reply to your post on page 2?

Sorry, I was being naughty. I am reasonably OK with my gloomy prognosis for the UK back then, unfortunately.

The Warren Buffet line about products for mass wealth destruction gets the all time absolutely correct forecast award about the banking crisis that has hit us sadly and my ramble only talked about Northern Rock which was a tiny blip compared with what has followed.

[thenodrog]

It's quite humerous reading that again. Jim and Stu in particular would make as good a comedy double act as those two in No's 10 and 11.............. if it wasn't so bloody serious.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

It's quite humerous reading that again. Jim and Stu in particular would make as good a comedy double act as those two in No's 10 and 11.............. if it wasn't so bloody serious.

Yes….. If I had the time or the inclination, it would be good to have a quick recap of some of the posts berating those that pointed out we were heading for a recession. Or even more deplorable question the governments handling of the crisis....Hmmm

[Ozz]

Guilty Bazza! As a business man I always talk things up and not down!

[Paul]

I wouldn't argue there isn't a recession but it seems to be having an effect in specifica areas / industries rather than a more general one. The retail sector we supply is showing sales growth, monthly comparisons, of 23% in March and 38% in the four weeks to 26th April. As a business we have been putting forward the arguement to our customers weather will have a far greater impact on sales than the recsssion, and have been saying much the same since January 2008. Where everyone seems to have been proved wrong is big ticket items, say £500+, are selling when it was generally anticipated they would not.

Clearly the UK and world economies have serious difficulties but I wonder if the impact is limited to ceratin sectors of the buying public?

[broadsword]

I wouldn't argue there isn't a recession but it seems to be having an effect in specifica areas / industries rather than a more general one.

I work in the pharmaceutical sector and I was binned in January. i didn't get another job for 3.5 months.

Traditionally, pharma is seen as a good bet to resist economic turbulence, since it does not depend on consumer confidence.

Departments are clinging onto their budgets and trying to do more with less because the flow of money isn't there.

I think it's affecting everything and we haven't hit rock bottom yet.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

I wouldn't argue there isn't a recession but it seems to be having an effect in specifica areas / industries rather than a more general one. The retail sector we supply is showing sales growth, monthly comparisons, of 23% in March and 38% in the four weeks to 26th April.

IMO the fact that the shops/retail seem busy, can be attributed to same 'happy-go-lucky' attitude that labour have perpetuated during their disastrous tenure in government. It is this same attitude that encouraged people to lend more from the banks than they could possibly ever repay.

Mind you when the government are doing the same with the public finanaces its hardly a surprise.

A list retail companies that have gone bust during the current recession:

Qube 13th Feb 2009 Data Monitor

Original Shoe Company 13th Feb 2009 Data Monitor

Serious Food Company 28th Jan 2009 WalesOnline

Millennium Estates 27th Jan 2009 PropertyWeek

Barratts Shoes 26th Jan 2009 ThisIsMoney

Sofa Workshop 22nd Jan 2009 Sky News

The Real Hotel Company 21st Jan 2009 BBC

Woolworths Groups 19th Jan 2009 Reuters

Empire Direct 19th Jan 2009 BBC

Nortel 14th Jan 2009 The Economist

Land of Leather 12th Jan 2009 Independent

Viyella 7th Jan 2009 City AM

Waterford/Wedgwood 5th Jan 2009 FT

Morgan 30th Dec 2008 Forbes

Adams SAVED 29th Dec 2008 PA News

Birmingham Mail

USC 29th Dec 2008 Metro

Officer's Club 24th Dec 2008 Reuters

Zavvi 24th Dec 2008 Forbes

Olan Mills 18th Dec 2008 Express & Star

The Pier 4th Dec 2008 The Herald

Ferraris (Welsh bakers) 28th Nov 2008 Wales Online

Woolworths Retail 26th Nov 2008 BBC

MFI 26th Nov 2008 Guardian

Motor World 26th Sep 2008 TheBusinessDesk

Rosebys 26th Sep 2008 Mail

Celebrations Group 10th Oct 2008 Retail Week

[Paul]

Qube 13th Feb 2009 Data Monitor

Original Shoe Company 13th Feb 2009 Data Monitor

Serious Food Company 28th Jan 2009 WalesOnline

Millennium Estates 27th Jan 2009 PropertyWeek

Barratts Shoes 26th Jan 2009 ThisIsMoney

Sofa Workshop 22nd Jan 2009 Sky News

The Real Hotel Company 21st Jan 2009 BBC

Woolworths Groups 19th Jan 2009 Reuters

Empire Direct 19th Jan 2009 BBC

Nortel 14th Jan 2009 The Economist

Land of Leather 12th Jan 2009 Independent

Viyella 7th Jan 2009 City AM

Waterford/Wedgwood 5th Jan 2009 FT

Morgan 30th Dec 2008 Forbes

Adams SAVED 29th Dec 2008 PA News

Birmingham Mail

USC 29th Dec 2008 Metro

Officer's Club 24th Dec 2008 Reuters

Zavvi 24th Dec 2008 Forbes

Olan Mills 18th Dec 2008 Express & Star

The Pier 4th Dec 2008 The Herald

Ferraris (Welsh bakers) 28th Nov 2008 Wales Online

Woolworths Retail 26th Nov 2008 BBC

MFI 26th Nov 2008 Guardian

Motor World 26th Sep 2008 TheBusinessDesk

Rosebys 26th Sep 2008 Mail

Celebrations Group 10th Oct 2008 Retail Week

That's an interesting list Bazza. Interesting because as a consumer I've only heard of:

Barratt's - cheap shoes

Woolworths - cheap everything

Adams - was great when the kids were little, demolished by Tesco etc?

Land of Leather - cheap furniture

Waterford / Wedgwood - quality but old fashioned / lost it's way

Viyella (were they retailers?)

MFI - cheap furniture

Makes me wonder why these businesses went bust. If consumers don't know what they do, and I really do not have a clue, one would have to ask why or if they are simply assocciated with being cheap one has to question the business model. As I said I don't question the economic situation but I'm becoming more convinced there is a large element of having talked ourselves into some aspects of it.

As for the spend and be damned attitude of the public I think you're simply wrong. The market we supply wouldn't qualify for that sort of spending, our customers are all located out of town and I can't think of a single retail outlet in our market which is high street located.

[broadsword]

I've heard of at l;east half of those.

I don't think we're in the mess we're in now because we've talked ourselves into it. Once the inter-bank lending dried up, it was only to go one way. Our economy was run on debt, so if you can't obtain more debt you're stuffed.

It's like someone constantly living off their HP. If the company calls in their card, they've had it.

I think you're being dangerously complacent, Paul. free-market unfettered capitalism has made the world ill, we need to change the prescription, not have more of the same. As it is, the banks say "jump" and we all ask how high the APR is.

We need to stop our feverish consumerism, it isn't sustainable. There has to be a better way.

[Paul]

I don't think I'm being complacent Bryan. I know if we don't perform I'd be in a similar position to the one you found yourself in. We know in our business the dangers we were facing and took action accordingly to cut costs, increase prices and manage the company accordingly. We'll know the outcome in a few months. I do know it's bloody hard work. More than anything I'm thinking out loud. The general sector we supply, the gardening industry, is enjoying a very good 2009, this is primarily weather driven and always has been. If the weather was poor we would have the same problems as we face each year. However the sun is shining and people are spending in this sector.

Clearly there are very real problems in many sectors but it does seem people are still prepared to spend. I'm not sure of what is happening.

I quite agree we need to stop the unfettered consumerism. I was raised to buy what I could afford, save before I spent. Far too many people feel they can live on massive credit card debts buying what they want when they want it. There is a real lack of responsibility amongst the population in relation to credit.

[jim mk2]

Alot of consumer spending has been financed by people remortgaging their homes to release capital. Perhaps the shock of negative equity because their mortgage debt now exceeds the value of their increasingly worthless homes might force some into changing their behaviour.

[American]

I think a lot of companies used the "recession" as an excuse to trim the ranks. The main problem was the lending being cut back, but you are seeing a lot of that loosen up a bit again.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Makes me wonder why these businesses went bust. If consumers don't know what they do, and I really do not have a clue, one would have to ask why or if they are simply assocciated with being cheap one has to question the business model. As I said I don't question the economic situation but I'm becoming more convinced there is a large element of having talked ourselves into some aspects of it.

As for the spend and be damned attitude of the public I think you're simply wrong. The market we supply wouldn't qualify for that sort of spending, our customers are all located out of town and I can't think of a single retail outlet in our market which is high street located.

Paul I am genuinely pleased that your business is doing well. It is really good to hear your relative success story . However, your story couldn’t be further away the experiences of the rest of the UK economy. Without the return of inter-bank lending and cheaper credit for small-medium businesses this recession is going to get much worse before it gets better.

I work for a local government who have recently stated they need to make 20% savings this financial year- yes 20%- this ominously means job cuts . If this is the forecast for the public sector I wouldn’t like to predict what savings companies are planning to make in the private sector.

I cant believe you have never heard of USC, Empire Direct, Morgan, Olan Mills- you need to get out more ………………… Joke BTW

[Paul]

Bazza, the company I work for is enjoying a good year to date, I was trying to avoid saying this, but it's not just us it is the whole sector which is seeing this growth, even on the big ticket items like patio furniture which was expected to suffer. We have always known the gardening industry, in it's widest terms, enjoys relative security in tough times. It's the feel good and stay at home factors but in previous "recessions" this has only been reflected in certain products, this year it seems to be across the entire sector, everything you can think of related to the garden (which is very broad) is doing well. The only area which is explicable is the current "grow your own" fad which the media say is recession driven but was in fact in evidence two years ago and is much more a reaction to "healthy living" than hard times.

As for the names I had absolutely no idea what those companies sold. I have just googled them and while I now know what 3 did I'm none the wiser really. Which goes to show there is little point in advertising if the message is missed completely by the consumer. Is Morgan the car manufacturer? I thought they went a few years ago?

[Beta Ray Bill]

Bazza, the company I work for is enjoying a good year to date, I was trying to avoid saying this, but it's not just us it is the whole sector which is seeing this growth,

I should hope so in gardening !

[broadsword]

Mporgan sold women's clothing Paul!

I guess the missus doesn't drag you round with her when she goes shopping.

I think most [people would've heard of it.

[Paul]

I guess the missus doesn't drag you round with her when she goes shopping.

Never

[stuwilky]

It's quite humerous reading that again. Jim and Stu in particular would make as good a comedy double act as those two in No's 10 and 11.............. if it wasn't so bloody serious.

Feel free Jim, we werent in a recession at the time - as i said.

We didnt stop talking about it - and went into one - I believe I also said that as well.

I can only strive to be as perfect as you though with my predictions, but Im getting there