[Archived] American Presidential Elections

[Grabbi Graeme]

Despite a heavy loss in Kentucky, Obama has taken another step closer to wining the Democrat race.

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[Rovermatt]

There seems to be a lot of fuss about Obama not winning these apparently crucial states where white working-class voters are in the majority. He has in fact won lots of states populated with this demographic - Nebraska, Missouri, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Idaho, Kansas, Illinois, Texas, North Dakota, Washington. Oregon is 90% white as I understand it.

The problem seems to be winning in states with large white populations where attitudes towards race are still firmly in the Jim Crow camp. So he lost heavily in West Virginia and Kentucky. Does Hillary honestly believe she would triumph in either come November?

Even some of the states I mentioned above that have plumped for Obama will go red in November.

[Eddie]

You can easily spin that the other way and ask if anyone would seriously expect Clinton to lose any of the states Obama has won. If I were in charge I'd place more importance on winning fringe democrats, which Clinton seems more likely to do. I don't really mind what the outcome is at this point, I dislike both of Obama and Clinton more each day, although I think they would both do an ok job, and I still think McCain is a pretty good candidate.

[Rovermatt]

You can easily spin that the other way and ask if anyone would seriously expect Clinton to lose any of the states Obama has won.

Not really. States that Clinton has won recently (Indiana, West Virginia, Kentucky) will go Republican in November. To use these pretty hollow victories as a stick to beat your drum with is ridiculous.

[Eddie]

She won't win the states, but she'll win that type of voter and that could be crucial. At this moment in time I don't think either of them stands a chance. Clinton has a horrible team behind her, they've blown what really should have been an easy win. Obama is a very good public speaker and is popular at the moment, but he makes too many mistakes.

[Rovermatt]

She still loses the state though.

'Too many'? I can think of his assertion that some people in small town America are bitter as a mistake. I know he called a female reporter 'sweetie'. He wouldn't pose for a picture with a persistent supporter. What else?

[Eddie]

Well that's 3 in a fairly short period of time, how many else do you expect a politician to make? I've actually been surprised that the comment to the reporter hasn't hurt him more than it has.

Oh and my point about the voters, in swing-states she might win those voters and that could make the difference.

[Rovermatt]

Well that's 3 in a fairly short period of time, how many else do you expect a politician to make? I've actually been surprised that the comment to the reporter hasn't hurt him more than it has.

Aside from the comments re: small town America, those are hardly disastrous mistakes destined to shape an election. McCain, Clinton and every other politician out there are are hardly sailing along on a harmonic, error-free course.

[Eddie]

The sweetie comment was sexist and condescending (not the best thing when you're running against a woman). While for me, it reflects a sense of arrogance that I get from him which puts me off him.

[Rovermatt]

But it's hardly a disastrous mistake when weighed against the challenges the next President will be facing. Anyway, arrogant or not he still phoned the woman to apologise.

[Eddie]

He sort of had to.

None of these issues indicate how good someone will be at the job, but that doesn't usually matter to voters.

[Rovers Air Force]

Personally I would like to see Obama in office rather than Clinton or McCain... however the democrats are destroting their chances by failing to decide whom they want for president... in reality IMHO the american voters who actually make a difference (i.e. floating voters not affiliated to one party over another) rarely make their desigion based on the personallity of whom they are voting into power!!!

there seems to be a general rule where:

if foreign policy is at the formost of the publics mind the democrats get in to power

where as if it is the US ecconomy the republicans get the nod

this of course raises the spectre of another term for the right wing loonies... and begs the question... are they purposefully exacerbating the current US fiscal frailaties in order to place americans wallets in the front of their mind over any other considerations...

what is interesting is that the extent that whilst all the comentators and members of the public say that race, sex or class are having little effect on how people vote... the polls and results show that, in the democratic party atleast, these devisions are very real and offen sway peoples opinions over the actual politics of those they are supporting.

[Rovermatt]

Keith Olbermann was a Clinton supporter.

[Eddie]

From the Bill O'Reilly of the left? Hardly.

He's been on her back for a bit, maybe he can either go back to covering sports or try and copy a few more trademarks from other broadcasters.

[Rovermatt]

From the Bill O'Reilly of the left? Hardly.

He's been on her back for a bit, maybe he can either go back to covering sports or try and copy a few more trademarks from other broadcasters.

He has been pro-Clinton and qualified a special comment relating to Geraldine Ferraro with a suitable statement.

[USRoverME]

To be perfectly honest, I stopped paying any attention to the Dem Race ~ 3 weeks ago, and won't really listen to Either the Dems or McCain untilo the conventions.

[Eddie]

He has been pro-Clinton and qualified a special comment relating to Geraldine Ferraro with a suitable statement.

He was a while ago, but he's been on Clinton's back for several months. Like most of the mainstream media he decuded to back Obama and be critical of Clinton for staying in.

[Rovermatt]

Of course this comment is based not on Clinton's staying in rather her baffling decision to invoke RFK's assassination as justification for her dogged pursuit of the improbable.

[Eddie]

Improbable? What most people fail to realise is that if she has good results in the remaining states (quite possible, even quite likely) and if they decide to count every state (which would be amazing if they didn't, although they probably won't seeing as the general public are pretty much ignoring it), that she may well win the "popular" vote. That would give the super-delegates something serious to think about.

- His previous comments have related to her staying in the race mainly.

[American]

No way for her to win the popular vote.

[Eddie]

OBAMA

17,262,155 47.5%

17,596,239 47.6%

CLINTON

17,426,809 47.9%

17,650,671 47.7%

The first figure is the official count including FL and MI

The second is the official count plus the estimates for IA, NV, ME, WA who have not released their official results.

And to pack up my earlier statements, Clinton is doing better in the polls (overall) versus McCain than Obama is versus McCain.

[Rovermatt]

It's entirely improbable that Clinton will take the nomination. She trails on all fronts. Even if Florida and Michigan (two states that ALL candidates were happy to exclude and refrain from campaigning in) are reinstated she will still be short as far as delegates are concerned. Polls regarding the general election are unreliable this early. This poll is slanted towards Obama. Polls will come and go once he is the nominee and is looking for all votes, not just Democratic ones .

Nor is it likely that Hillary will have 'good' results (the sort of outcomes she needs to convince the party in the space of two primaries that she's the gal) in remaining states. Only Puerto Rico is sympathetic to her. Obama will win in South Dakota and Montana. He is polling very well in Montana in particular. Montana is amongst the poorest states in America and is almost completely white. So much for his alleged trouble with 'hard-working whites'.

[Rovers Air Force]

I fail to see how the vote from florida and michigan can be counted! Especially as Obamas (amongst others) name was not on the ballot paper!!!

These states were given dates on which to hold their election and they chose to ignore them... Clinton was more than happy to discount these votes when she felt the nomination was hers to loose... now that she has, she is trying anything she can to prevent her slide into politiical oblivion.

[American]

Plus, what about the people who didn't vote because they were told it wouldn't count? How do we count their votes?

[Eddie]

Obama's name wasn't on the ballot paper, but there was an "undeclared" (or something of that sort) who got a couple hundred thousand votes. Fairly obvious that anyone who was putting their vote their was voting for him.

As I said, I wouldn't drop out of this race, so far be it for me to tell someone else to. So far no one on here has answered my question by saying that they would. It would be pretty hard to justify why you would drop out of what will probably be her only chance of being President when she still has a chance of winning.

Many also now speculate that Clinton is staying in simply so that she can hope to influence Obama and have him include some of her own policies. Which would make sense seeing as how things are going.