[Archived] "the Run In"

[s_simpson_9]

Just had a quick look at our run in.

It doesn't read too bad.

I know it is a long way out and we have a quarter of the season to go but, I am going to run with it:

Newcastle v Blackburn - 3 points - I appreciate that we always get done by teams that are in trouble but I am going for a win anyway.

Blackburn v Fulham - 3 points - Poor Fulham - lovely place to live ... but I think they are dead. Unless they sign Tevez ...

West Ham v Blackburn - 0 points - They always seem to do us - and it does my head in.

Blackburn v Wigan - 3 points - I cant be bothered with the commentary anymore.

Reading v Blackburn - 1 point

Blackburn v Tottenham - 0 points

Liverpool v Blackburn - 0 points

Blackburn v Man Utd - 0 points

Portsmouth v Blackburn - 1 point

Blackburn v Derby - 3 points

Birmingham v Blackburn - 3 points

17 points in the run in.

Optimistic or what?

That would give us a total of 59 points!

Lordie Lordie Lordie.

Maybe I should review my anticipated results.

No I am sticking with them

[philipl]

Sparky made the point yesterday that although he has set his own points target for 6th, the way clubs in the European places race are beating clubs in the bottom half, the target number is increasing.

Not done any calculations but my guess is 65 points will be needed to get a chance of 6th this season.

Could be more given the competition for 4th. Possibly after Man City v Everton tonight, goal difference is going to separate four clubs on 47 points encompassing

4th- Champions League

5th- UEFA

6th- Intertoto (have to say a Chelsea v Man U FA Cup Final is a statistically remote shot at this stage for keeping the 3rd UEFA slot in the EPL)

7th- nothing.

That scrap alone is going to drive the points needed total upwards and we are sitting 5 points and an unbridgeable goal difference gap behind it.

Are we going to have to hope for a Spurs UEFA Cup win to put another slot back in for the EPL? Anyone know how those rules work?

[Paul]

I said a couple of months back the home defeats to Villa and Portsmouth would prove costly. They look more expensive by the day. We won't qualify for Europe this year.

[AggyBlue]

Try the BBC Predictor.

I completed it this morning and we finished 9th with 59 points.

Couldn't even get Notlob relegated

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/e...tor/default.stm

[philipl]

Did that at Christmas and again a couple of weeks. Both times Chelsea won the League (Arsenal's draw at Brum makes it a three horse race again) and Rovers narrowly missed a UEFA slot.

Back to real world rules but imagine a league table finish of:

4 Everton

5 Villa

6 Rovers

7 Pompey

8 Liverpool

But Liverpool win the CL so take that slot off Everton.

Pompey lose the FA Cup Final to Manu or Chelsea so take that UEFA slot

Bolton win the UEFA Cup so take that slot off Everton

Everton go into the Intertoto and Villa and Rovers get nothing for coming 5th and 6th.

That is how I think the UEFA rules would work.

[Rovermatt]

Newcastle (A): Keegan will earn his first win since his return. It's cast in stone I'm afraid.

Fulham (H): We'll do Fulham. They're really crap.

West Ham (A): Not a hope. 3 points to Lucash and friends.

Wigan (H): This has to be a big win. Wigan are there for the taking.

Reading (A): We could very well get 3 points out of this. Reading looked chocking yesterday at home.

Tottenham (H): This has draw written all over it.

Liverpool (A): An undisputable loss.

Man Utd (H): We could do everyone a favour and f**k up United's title challenge. But we won't and they'll win it in the 95th minute.

Portsmouth (A): We could easily get a draw from this though it will be tricky.

Derby (H): This HAS to be 3 points. Even letting Derby score first would be beyond funny.

Birmingham (A): With any luck we can condemn T&A City to the Championship but it could be tricky. We need to go three points.

[Ronin]

Apart from Man City and Rovers, who else has applied for the Intertoto?

[RibbleValleyRover]

Villa and Portsmouth have as well i think.

[Ewood and I Would]

Could be more given the competition for 4th. Possibly after Man City v Everton tonight, goal difference is going to separate four clubs on 47 points encompassing

4th- Champions League

5th- UEFA

6th- Intertoto (have to say a Chelsea v Man U FA Cup Final is a statistically remote shot at this stage for keeping the 3rd UEFA slot in the EPL)

7th- nothing.

Eh? 6th is a guaranteed UEFA spot isn't it? 1-4 champs league and 5-6 UEFA, with 7th and 8th becoming possibilities depending on how the Carling and FA Cups go.

Correct me if I'm wrong though :!:

[Ronin]

Villa and Portsmouth have as well i think.

Arse!

Hope we go on one of our 'amazing second half of the season' runs and they start to lose a bit of form.

[Eddie]

Eh? 6th is a guaranteed UEFA spot isn't it? 1-4 champs league and 5-6 UEFA, with 7th and 8th becoming possibilities depending on how the Carling and FA Cups go.

Correct me if I'm wrong though :!:

Nope. Only 5th is a guaranteed UEFA spot for the league. 6th and 7th generally come in because of the cups, but Spurs winning it means that the best we can hope for now is 6th spot for that and 7th for intertoto. No Europe for us next year by the looks of things, which financially doesn't really matter, but it could make a bit of difference to the calibre of player we may be able to attract in the summer.

[Lee]

Bolton win the UEFA Cup so take that slot off Everton

That is how I think the UEFA rules would work.

Nope, if Bolton (in this example) win the UEFA Cup, then the other three teams join them as per usual.

But if Tottenham win the UEFA Cup, then there aren't additional teams entered. Therefore the UEFA Cup results have no bearing on next season's UEFA Cup entrees as far as we are concerned.

[Ewood and I Would]

Nope. Only 5th is a guaranteed UEFA spot for the league. 6th and 7th generally come in because of the cups, but Spurs winning it means that the best we can hope for now is 6th spot for that and 7th for intertoto. No Europe for us next year by the looks of things, which financially doesn't really matter, but it could make a bit of difference to the calibre of player we may be able to attract in the summer.

Then why do the BBC (and others) highlight 5th and 6th in their tables?

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/e...ble/default.stm

Why is there a line under 6th, it should be under 5th then??? I'm confused, I have always been under the impression 6th gets UEFA regardless and it seems the Beeb make the same mistake...

[joey_big_nose]

The FA cup has a bearing. If two top five teams play each other in the Final then there will be an extra UEFA spot. I suppose we have to pray fo that.

A lot of our games look winnable. What worries me is this spell:

Blackburn v Tottenham -

Liverpool v Blackburn -

Blackburn v Man Utd -

Portsmouth v Blackburn -

We could easily only pick up three points from that.

There are just so many good teams this year. The standard of the teams outside the top four has massively improved. Its going to be a struggle- i would say 9th is realistic but we could suprise ourselves and get sixth. Fourth is not a possibility unfortunately.

[1864roverite]

I really think Rovers are gonna surprise some of the teams we have left to play.

Home games should really see Rovers aiming to achieve a full house. Granted we have manure to play but at some point they are going to come a cropper so why can it not be at Ewood again ?

The away games will be just as interesting. Our away form is fantastic. Liverpool and Pompy have both got dodgy home records so why can we not go these places and win again or get a draw ?

Spurs have achieved Europe now and will be focusing on the european campaign, it matters not where they finish in the league as they dont face relegation and hopefully by the time they come to Rovers they will still be in Europe.

[American]

Didn't they change it so a club has to be in the top division to make the UEFA Cup? If so, we should hope that a top 5 team plays a lower division team in the final.

[brian_gallagher85]

The FA cup has a bearing. If two top five teams play each other in the Final then there will be an extra UEFA spot. I suppose we have to pray fo that.

A lot of our games look winnable. What worries me is this spell:

Blackburn v Tottenham -

Liverpool v Blackburn -

Blackburn v Man Utd -

Portsmouth v Blackburn -

We could easily only pick up three points from that.

There are just so many good teams this year. The standard of the teams outside the top four has massively improved. Its going to be a struggle- i would say 9th is realistic but we could suprise ourselves and get sixth. Fourth is not a possibility unfortunately.

See I'm less worried about those games to be honest and more worried about the next "easy" spell

I was going over the the Derby game anyway (hoping to see my first live Rovers win in over 10 years ), but I am going to Anfield now aswell....could it come early ?

[Rover95]

Try the BBC Predictor.

I completed it this morning and we finished 9th with 59 points.

Couldn't even get Notlob relegated

http://news.bbc.co.uk/sport1/hi/football/e...tor/default.stm

I've just done this And had us finishing 9th also with 63 points! Arsenal won the league with derby, fulham and reading relegated

[RoyRover]

Newcastle v Blackburn - this is a game that we should be looking to win. But seeing as Newcastle haven't won under Keegan, Newcastle could well win this one. (L/W)

Blackburn v Fulham - Fulham are one of the weakest teams in the league, we have to win this one. (W)

West Ham v Blackburn - This is a game we could get a point from. (D)

Blackburn v Wigan - A win is a must. (W)

Reading v Blackburn - Reading are in free fall and like Newcastle this could be a game where they get a handy 3 points, but on current form we should win this one. (W)

Blackburn v Tottenham - we should be looking to stuff these smug gits at home. (W)

Liverpool v Blackburn - Loss. (L)

Blackburn v Man Utd - We always seem to do well against them at home. (D)

Portsmouth v Blackburn - Can't see us getting anything. (L)

Blackburn v Derby - Win. (W)

Birmingham v Blackburn - Nothing would give me more pleasure than to beat them and send them down. (W)

By my calculations we could get between 20 to 23 points from our remaining games. That would send us very close toward fourth spot at least.

[benlloninho]

I am 95% confident that we will earn 13 - 18 points. We're the Rovers. We're probably gonna lose at home to Fulham and then beat Liverpool at Anfield, etc. etc. I did the BBC predictor and we finished 8th.

[tony gale's mic]

I'd say a Man U - Chelsea final is quite likely, there's only a 1 in 3 chance by my reckoning that they'll play each other in the semis, and the opposition is so easy they really ought to beat them.

[tcj_jones]

I think we will have to get circa 20 points from our last eleven games to have any hope of getting sixth place. I don't see that happening. I think we have a good chance of getting seventh considering our run in, but sixth is out of our reach.

[USABlue]

Funny that, some see should wins and I see banana skin and charitable donations by Rovers, and teams breaking their "ducks" against is as always seems the case.

[Gareth]

I got:

1. Arse

2. Chelsea *

3. Man Utd. *

4. Red Scousers **

---------------------------

5. Blue Scousers **

6. Villa

---------------------------

7. Man City

8. Portsmouth **

9. Rovers **

10. Spuds

11. West Ham

12. Boro

13. Geordies

14. Mackems

15. Reading

16. Bolton

17. Wigan

------------------

18. Brum - our win at their place, combined with Reading's win at Derby, relegates them

19. Fulham - relegated with a few games left

20. Derby (obviously) - lose every game & end up with a -72 goal difference!

* The Man Utd-Bolton game seems to be missing from the BBC's list, and so they only end up playing 37 games, but 2 pts behind Chelsea. Is it to be re-arranged?

** Separated by goal-difference (4 in Liverpool's favour; 5 in Portsmouth's).

I get a difference of 18 pt and 31 goal difference between West Ham and Boro'

[tonygreenbank]

3 of those games have been chosen for Live TV coverage. Liverpool is now on the Sunday on Sky at 1.30; Manu is now at 5.15 on Setanta on the saturday and Pompey away is on TV. They obviously feel that we have a chance to qualify.