[Archived] The European Chase

[ally]

Looking at the run ins for the end of the season i think we have potentially 4 difficult games coming up and then 2 easy wins at the end. Think Villa have probably got the easiest run-in whilst city have some difficult games especially their last 2. think its gonna come down to the wire

Blackburn Run-in

Tottenham (home)

Liverpool (away)

Man Utd (home)

Portsmouth (away)

Derby (home)

Birmingham (away)

Pompey Run-in

West Ham (away)

Newcastle (home)

Man City (away)

Blackburn (home)

Middlesbrough (away)

Fulham (home)

Man City Run-in

Chelsea (home)

Sunderland (away)

Portsmouth (home)

Fulham (home)

Liverpool (away)

Middlesbrough (away)

Aston Villa run in

Bolton (home)

Derby (away)

Birmingham (home)

Everton (away)

Wigan (home)

West Ham (away)

[Wiggy]

If Pompey win the FA Cup and finish 6th, does that mean the Inter Toto spot goes to the seventh placed team?

[Hughesy]

Well if Pompey win the cup and finish 6th then they wont need to play in the inter-toto anyway so would probably decline the invite, therefore going down to the next highest placed team that has entered.

[brfcshabba]

They haven't applied for the intertoto cup anyway so it is between us, City and Villa. That is of course if Everton finish fifth.

[tony gale's mic]

We need Villa to drop points from matches they ought to win, and we need to pick up maximums against Spurs and Pompey.

currently we're a point ahead of them with a worse goal difference. Therefore we need to match their points total over the next few games.

Looking at it objectively, Villa really, really should win these:

Bolton (H)

Derby (A)

Birmingham (H)

Wigan (H)

and should at least draw against either Everton or West Ham.

That's 13 points.

Looking at ours:

We should beat:

Derby (H)

Birmingham (A)

But where will the other 7 points come from?

We don't have much of a chance of beating Liverpool or Man U, best we can hope for is a point combined from those two games.

That means we NEED to beat both Spurs and Portsmouth to stand a chance really. Unless Villa massively slip up - but their run in is so simple that even with their poor form it's hard to see them not winning at least three of those easy games.

[Eddie]

They will drop points, the question is whether we will continue to as well, I would bet on a yes for that.

[American]

We should beat:

Derby (H)

Birmingham (A)

We should have also beaten Fulham and Reading...

[tony gale's mic]

We should have also beaten Fulham and Reading...

True but Derby home is a real banker, and Birmingham should be safe by then.

[krislu]

We won't get more than 6-8 points in those last six games!

[brian_gallagher85]

True but Derby home is a real banker, and Birmingham should be safe by then.

Oh Oh

Brian "The draw/defeat specialist" Gallagher will be in attendence

[RibbleValleyRover]

I really think our chance of Europe has gone:

Tottenham (home)

Liverpool (away)

Man Utd (home)

Portsmouth (away)

Is a very tough run in. You never know which Spurs team will turn up, same with Liverpool, Man United the best side in the league this season In my opinion and then a very tough game against Portsmouth.

On our day we can beat anyone in the league, but from those fixtures i can only see us getting 2-4 points.

[benlloninho]

We're probably gonna beat Totteringham and Liverpool and draw against Manchester United then lose the last three, narrowly missing out on Europe. That's our style.

[T4E]

They will drop points, the question is whether we will continue to as well, I would bet on a yes for that.

Absolutely - I havent even been bothering to watch and hope that the teams around us drop points as I have zero faith that we'll be able to capitalize on any slip ups. We'll miss out on Europe this year and we've got no one to blame but ourselves.

[philipl]

We are at the silly end of the season and all games against teams not yet mathematically safe are potential nightmares. Even Derby might now relax and surprise a few people.

We are in posession of a European Intertoto place as we have the 1 point advantage over Villa and Citeh and on that basis it is for those clubs to take it off us.

No way would I have had Newcastle to slaughter Spuds today but the Geordies now believe they are good enough for the top 4.

Somewhere sanity exists between a manic Toon fan at one extreme and a depressive Rovers supporter at the other.

[tony gale's mic]

Yes we've missed out on a lot of winnable games but Derby we almost certainly will win. Hopefully Birmingham will be safe by then and we'll win that because we'll want it more.

This makes Spurs and Portsmouth absolutely crucial games. If Vogel can make an impression it could help us greatly, an engine in midfield when all the other legs are tired, especially against Portsmouth by which time hopefully he'll be match fit.

First target: beat Spurs next weekend. Yes we have a habit of gifting teams points but we were excellent against Wigan and created several chances at Reading that we should have put away. Spurs have just got spanked by Newcastle.

Let's stay positive...

[tcj_jones]

I reckon the tams chasing Europe will finish in this order:

Everton

Portsmouth

Aston Villa

Blackburn Rovers

Manchester City

West Ham United

I have it being unbelievably tight between 7th - 9th, with only a point or goal difference seperating them.

[philipl]

It is extremely tight and likely to remain so.

Just seen the Premiership's list of leading goal scorers.

Roque is on his own in 4th place whilst Benni is joint 17th with last year's winner of the Golden Boot, Didier Drogba. Yet the calls to rest RSC and sell Benni echo around this site.

[RevidgeBlue]

It is extremely tight and likely to remain so.

Yet the calls to rest RSC and sell Benni echo around this site.

Because in Benni's case his performance and application levels this season have been little short of a disgrace.

Don't recall a clamour to rest RSC tbh.

[Hughesy]

Just done the predictor with no Bias.

United top on 91pts, Chelsea 87pts, Arsenal 84pts

Liverpool finished 10 pts clear of Everton who got 5th, followedby Pompey & then blackburn.

At the bottom I had Derby (Obviously), Fulham 31pts and Bolton 35pts - going down on the last day by goal difference. Had them clear of Birmingham by a pt before the last day too.

[Martin]

Villa's run-in is (on paper) by far the easiest - but nobody expected Sunderland to win there.

If we are going to make intertoto/europe we have to win Spurs, Derby, Birmingham plus one away and hope Villa don't pick up.

City in my eyes are done. Pompey are flying but we need not worry about them.

The frustrating thing is that we can potentially finish 8th missing out on europe and that will be viewed by many as failure. However, given the money we have spent, finishing 8th/9th is an excellent position to finish.

It's a strange league this year in terms of european places.

[Earlydoors]

Looking at the run ins for the end of the season i think we have potentially 4 difficult games coming up and then 2 easy wins at the end. Think Villa have probably got the easiest run-in whilst city have some difficult games especially their last 2. think its gonna come down to the wire

Blackburn Run-in

Tottenham (home)

Liverpool (away)

Man Utd (home)

Portsmouth (away)

Derby (home)

Birmingham (away)

WIN

LOSE

LOSE

LOSE

WIN

DRAW

= 7 points = 57 Points....Not Enough

[Cocker]

WIN

LOSE

LOSE

LOSE

WIN

DRAW

= 7 points = 57 Points....Not Enough

I think we will draw with spuds and beat big club. Still the same points as yours though

[philipl]

Our record against top half teams is won 1 drawn 7 lost 7

Our record against bottom half teams is won 12 drawn 4 lost 1

So on the basis we have a remaining fixture list featuring a 3-3 split of games against top and bottom half teams, perhaps 9 points is par for the course. We are doing unusually badly against good teams and unusually well against not so good this season.

[modes98]

WIN

LOSE

LOSE

LOSE

WIN

DRAW

= 7 points = 57 Points....Not Enough

WIN

Draw

Lose

WIN

WIN

WIN

Don't forget we've already beaten Pompey away this season, we can easily do it again, plus they will have a FA Cup final on their minds.

Liverpool will hopefully now relax a bit with a 5 point gap, plus we have a decent record against them. The same with Man Utd but they are awesome at the moment.

We have to beat Derby and Brum to stand a chance. Spurs should be 3 points after their awful performance at the weekend but they are up and down like a roller coaster at the moment.

[USABlue]

Wjy is there only one UEFA place this season. Seems a little out of line. The "Champions" League has FOUR entries and the UEFA only one, mmm, seem a bit Bass Ackwards to me.