[Archived] Rovers Takeover Thread

[philipl]

Special pleading from those two. Give 'em both £150m each and neither would build a club capable of being a CL fixture.

1864 has it very very right. It is criminal that for want of perhaps £50m in fees and wages, Rovers cannot kick on to the next level.

[Paul]

We're pretty much living through that right now.

New investment doesn't mean we need to have a blank cheque and live well beyond our means. It's possible that we could simply spend more in the summer without increasing our wage bill all that much, meaning that if the new owner jumped ship we would be in a pretty similar situation to the one we are in now.

I think "living beyond one's means" suggests greater outgoings than income. Rovers have been in this position for several years hence the support of £3-6m per season from the trust. Could you please explain, I've asked several times, how:

The "simply spend more in the summer" would be funded?

Why this would be "without increasing our wage bill all that much?"

How, with the debt acquired from "simply spending more in the summer" if the new owner jumped ship "we would be in a pretty similar situation to the one we are in now?"

I'm very interested because there are clearly a lot of people who know how / where one can borrow a large sum of money and never pay it back. I only need a £1m as this would allow me to retire tomorrow.

[Paul]

Interesting to read Harry's verdict on Keegan's comments (see the link below). One point he picks up upon which I have been mulling over, is that you have all these clubs who are going to spend lots of money, but only so many teams can win the title, get into Europe etc - there are going to be some unhappy chairman.

Harry Redknapp believes it will take £150million for any Premier League side to shatter the big four's dominance of the division.

Exactly what I've been saying for at least two years.

Special pleading from those two. Give 'em both £150m each and neither would build a club capable of being a CL fixture.

1864 has it very very right. It is criminal that for want of perhaps £50m in fees and wages, Rovers cannot kick on to the next level.

But for how long would we be able to maintain that position if we achieved it? It seems to be Rovers have had very, very decent league season in terms of league position and a possible 6th spot. This has been achieved despite a poor showing for much of the time between November and April, just beating Villa and Pompey at hone would have propelled us into an unassailable 6th and possible 5th. It seems to me the major problem is the lack of resources in the squad and the potential to freshen up the side when players become stale.

What I can't get to grips with is how the £50m spend, which may well be correct, will allow us to compete for more than a couple of seasons? The top three's success, and relative consistency, reflects the size and quality of their squads. To consider moving to the "next level," and I'm still not sure what that is, would require Rovers to have perhaps 5-7 extra players who we would all consider first choice for the team. This is what we, and other clubs lack, and why when a mid season slump occurs there is little anyone can do about it.

I half heard a Five Live discussion on why Championship players find it difficult to move to the PL. The major point made being these players can be, on a good day, as good as many in the PL sides. Crucially it is only "on a good day" and most cannot provide the consistency through out the season to become top PL players. Rovers, and the rest of the PL have this problem, on our day we can compete with and beat the best - what we cannot do is play at this level throughout the season, the players are not consistently good enough and we don't have the reserves to freshen up a weary team at crucial points

[philipl]

A combination of sky/setanta money with excellent off field management and Hughes and the current squad's contract positions and the Trust as lender as last resort tied by the Walker Trust Deed puts Rovers in a very decent situation to maintain a Premier League position in the top half of the table for the next two seasons and avoid relegation for the foreseeable future.

There is a platform at Ewood to shoot for CL qualification which is in playing and management terms as good as any that exists in the clubs occupying places 5 to wherever Boro are at the moment.

I expect that from within our own resources, Rovers will sign an additional two players (using the rumoured £10m kitty Sparky is said to have) given Sparky's track record and the fact that there are more players good enough out there than there are regular starting places in an EPL top ten club available who can put Messrs Dunn, Reid, Emerton and MGP starting places under an awful lot more pressure in 08/9 than they were in 07/8.

It then comes down to Sparky being more willing to de-select than he has been but the 08/9 formation of having the options of 442 asnd 4231 formations and

Benni, Roque, Jason, Matty, up front

Dunn, Reid, MGP, Vogel, Bentley, Emo, Tugay (I suspect he might get a deal if we get Intertoto) ANO, and the Axe in midfield

Warnock, Berner, Olsson, Emo, Reid, Nelsen, Samba, Ooijer, Zura and ANO at the back

Friedel, Brown and one of four seemingly extremely promising young keepers

Looks like a seriously strong 24 man squad which should weather the vicissitudes of injuries, form loss and suspensions better than the 07/8 squad.

And folks, we are at the last round of matches with a serious possibility of 6th place so if 07/08 has been disappointing and under-performing as a lot of you believe, just think what an average performance might achieve with that strengthening.

If the club were to find the £50m I mentioned this summer, I would be confident we'd advance from an outside bet for top 4 to being right in the mix- uniquely among the challengers to have such a platform to do that.

With regards to being able to do this consistently, the answer is we are Blackburn. At the end of the day, a town of 140,000 can no more sustain being at the very top in 2008/9 than it could maintain 1882-5 or 1890/1 or 1912-4 or the great side of the early '60s or 1992-5 indefinitely. It simply comes down to resources in the long haul and that is the reality of life.

However, this sport and it would be fantastic to have the sporting chance.

When you look at benefactors/investors flushing their millions down EPL loos, pound for pound Ewood Park offers a darned sight better odds of success than any other around in the EPL as at May 2008.

[Iceman]

It aint about quantity,but quality in a squad.if u have a big squad of quality players,then you wil be up there.

[philipl]

For arguments sake, let's say the two ANOs are Bradley and Huddlestone (two players the Rovers are clearly tracking and are/have offered serious money for) pushing Reid and Emo out of midfield and into contesting the RB slot.

Rovers would then have two elevens in that squad I wrote down that would beat a bottom half Prem team on a regular basis.

Brown

Emo Samba Nelsen Berner

Bentley Tugay/Mokoena Bradley MGP

Santa Cruz Roberts

and

Friedel

Reid Zura Ooijer Warnock

Dunn Vogel Huddlestone Olsson

McCarthy Derbyshire

would both take care of Bolton for example.

And I wasn't offering Gallagher, Rigters or the probably aren't good enough youngsters.

[modes98]

Olsson is a LB Phillipl. You'd be better off throwing Peter or Treacy in there.

[philipl]

Forgot about those two!

Olsson was given a run down the left wing the one time I saw him come on as sub (I think it was Spurs away). He was OK when he got the initial nerves out of the way.

[LeftWinger]

Forgot about those two!

Olsson was given a run down the left wing the one time I saw him come on as sub (I think it was Spurs away). He was OK when he got the initial nerves out of the way.

Olsson also played on the left-wing when he came on as a sub against Derby at weekend.

[Blackburn Ender]

It's also a mental thing at the top four clubs that says they simply do not lose matches.

I know there's a media over-reaction, but there's still an element of disbelief any time Man Utd, Chelsea or Arsenal lose a game.

Liverpool lost that aura for a good long while.

Everton and Spurs never really had it.

Chelsea had to realy spend big to buy it.

I don't think Rovers and Blackburn have the potential to be a big enough club to acquire it through any means.

The difference between now and in the past, is the closed shop the top four have managed to sustain through Champions League income and big, big spending year in, year out, which dwarfs every other club's income and expenditure.

£50m one sumer might assist us in challenging Everton and Aston Villa, but I think we'd still require a pretty bad season from Liverpool or Arsenal to seriously challenge the top four.

[Cocker]

Private Eye is full of crap, they write stuff that is libellous at times because they know there is no point in anyone suing them.

It is also written by toffs and smart asses. It lost all relevance a long time ago.

Isnt that where that Ian Hislop guy is? I have never liked him - smuggest man in the world.

[brfcmad1979]

Nicko is there any truth in the rumour that Indian investors are after taking over Notlob?

[LeftWinger]

£50m one sumer might assist us in challenging Everton and Aston Villa, but I think we'd still require a pretty bad season from Liverpool or Arsenal to seriously challenge the top four.

We're 15 points behind Liverpool, 4 behind Everton and 1 behind Villa.

I certainly don't think it would take 50m to "challenge" Villa and Everton.

We've lost the following winnable games:

Portsmouth (H)

Villa (H)

West Ham (H)

Wigan (A)

We've also drawn these games that we perhaps should have done better in:

Boro (H)

Everton (H)

Fulham (H)

Reading (A)

Spurs (H)

So that's 5 points from those 9 games. Say we'd managed to win 6, draw 1 and lose 2 (and I don't think that's unrealistic looking at the games, 7 are at home!). We'd have an extra 14 points and be really pushing Liverpool.

We are very close to having an excellent side at Rovers. The fact Friedel, Bentley and Santa Cruz were all in the Sporting Life squad of the season backs this up. We're maybe 2/3 players away at the moment - providing we can hang onto our current stars. Good players cost money, but if Sparky does have 10 million to spend in the summer, I'd expect us to finish 5th next season. This is an incredible achievement for a club our size.

[Paul]

Rovers would then have two elevens in that squad I wrote down that would beat a bottom half Prem team on a regular basis.

Philip this season we have beaten the bottom half on a regular basis. 15 wins to date, 14 against the bottom half and 1 against the top half. Are you advocating a £50m summer investment just to keep beating the bottom half of the table? Assuming we are in a strong position, which we are, we need to beat the top half on a regular basis, the defeats to Villa, WHU and Pompey have been very costly.

[nicko]

Nicko is there any truth in the rumour that Indian investors are after taking over Notlob?

There have been at least two approaches for Bolton recently. Neither got off the ground.

The guy Eddie Davies does not want to sell unless it is big money. He owns the club and likes the fact. He also has a very good deal going for himself.

I think there was an 'Indian' element in one of the groups. But you are never sure where the money is coming from in most cases.

[PAFELL]

It aint about quantity,but quality in a squad.if u have a big squad of quality players,then you wil be up there.

Correct - how much did Rovers pay for their current squad. When we consider how much RSC cost Rovers and the goals he has scored this season - he has scored more than Berbatov - Keane - Tevez. Even Bennie - considering he has had a bad season scored 11 goals.

Friedal would we swap him for any other keeper in the prem - What did he cost.

Warnock - Bentley to name but a few. Other clubs may have spent more money than Rovers, but money does not play football, players do. Anybody could spend loads of dosh on rubbish - but there is a lot of football talent around that is sat on subs benches - others who just lack the chance - or clubs have given up on Santa Cruz being one example, he hardly scored at his previous club - would anybody have thought at the start of this season he would score 20 goals?

I do not agree with people saying you need 150mill to get a team into the CL. Rovers are only 15 points behind 4th place - 5 wins. When you look at some of the silly results, such as wigan away, points dropped conceeding last minute goals, some sloppy performances - that is what cost Rovers a higher place in the league, not money spent or not spent. Rovers are on their day a good team, it is still a young squad who will gain more experience - yes it needs one or two additions to be a better squad. It is the young player who does not cost much that has more to prove and often is more hungry for success and is likely to try harder than the player who cost a lot and is also over paid that has nothing to prove. These players want to play football not sit on the bench.

[Blackburn Ender]

The problem is you cannot expect to finish at 5.

Look at all the teams around and below us who will be investing heavily this summer - Newcastle, Spurs, Totenham, Everton, Villa, etc, etc.

£10m and similar management/luck/form might keep us somewhere from 5th or 6th down to 10th or 11th.

The ability to consistently beat teams and win matches we are drawing and losing will only come from much greater investment over a few seasons and when our players genuinely believe there is something to achieve beyond a UEFA cup place, so that, when the chips are down in a game, they draw on extra mental strength to come up with the points.

[LeftWinger]

Philip this season we have beaten the bottom half on a regular basis. 15 wins to date, 14 against the bottom half and 1 against the top half.

It's actually 2 wins (City and Pompey), 8 draws and 8 defeats against the top half. Scoring just 10 times and conceding 22.

Against the bottom half its won 13, drawn 5 and lost 1. Scoring 39 times and conceding 22.

Only Manchester United and Chelsea have more points against the bottom half. Arsenal, Liverpool, Everton and Rovers all have 44 points against teams in the bottom half.

[modes98]

Olsson also played on the left-wing when he came on as a sub against Derby at weekend.

Indeed he did. Definately a left back though, maybe Hughes is trying to give him some first team experience without putting him under pressure at left back?

[joey_big_nose]

I would say there is a slim possibility of us getting into the CL next season. You could actually argue that if two things had happend this season we may have got a lot closer:

a) Nelsen had not suffered that hamstring injury which began an utterly awful slump from October to Febuary

If we had signed Vogel in the summer and discovered the "4231" formation which compensated for our frailties in central midfield.

But then this is speculation as next season it could easily be the case that another one of our key players is seriously injured (or, perish the thought, several of them) and that two or three months into the season opposition teams figure out how to nullify our tactics and a short run of games knocks out asperations to finish in the top four.

All we can do is give us options. Pace is a vital one as is creativity and workrate in central midfield. Largely speaking, I would say, our striking options and defence are decent enough to have a shot at fourth. If we can do this we will have every chance.

But then you have to say that there are a large number of clubs who are giving themselves that chance too. In terms of playing talent I would say there is very little difference between ourselves, Man City, West Ham, Portsmouth and Newcastle for example. If anything I would say those clubs have access to a slightly higher quality and larger depth squads. Spurs absolutely definately have a better set of players than us. Where you end up matters on so many things you cannot control - injuries (destroyed West Ham and Newcastle), boardroom/takeover antics (did for Spurs and Newcastle), suspensions, form.

Lets not get ahead of ourselves.

[Hughesy]

Keeping our best players, abit more pace and a quality midfielder could make a massive difference to us.

Like Joey said if Nelsen hadnt took a bad injury then we could have been alot more solid around that dodgy spell.

Its ok saying these other clubs will spend big, but that doesnt mean anything. Most of those clubs spent big last year too but it doesnt gaurantee success.

[RibbleValleyRover]

The danger is not if they spend big, but if they spend it wisely.

This season a lot of clubs have spent a lot of cash that they recieved from the TV revenue increase on players and in a lot of cases the players haven't justified the money spent.

If next season clubs spend a lot of cash on players who turn out to good buys, then we are in trouble.

[Eddie]

and although that is a big if, you have to feel that sooner or later it will happen.

[philipl]

Philip this season we have beaten the bottom half on a regular basis. 15 wins to date, 14 against the bottom half and 1 against the top half. Are you advocating a £50m summer investment just to keep beating the bottom half of the table? Assuming we are in a strong position, which we are, we need to beat the top half on a regular basis, the defeats to Villa, WHU and Pompey have been very costly.

No Paul, I was pointing out the base we have assuming we spend #10m -ish this summer. A squad with enough depth to field two complete teams which would beat the bottom half of the Prem.

I am using that as the base for my argument that with the current management on and off the pitch #40m extra would buy a very decent sporting chance of getting in amongst the big 4.

[joey_big_nose]

The danger is not if they spend big, but if they spend it wisely.

This season a lot of clubs have spent a lot of cash that they recieved from the TV revenue increase on players and in a lot of cases the players haven't justified the money spent.

If next season clubs spend a lot of cash on players who turn out to good buys, then we are in trouble.

Well to be honest I wouldn't say many clubs in the top half have spent the money that badly. Generally speaking the signings they have brought in have been good, and occasionally extremely good, players. Yet they arrive on these shores and fall apart.

I would say that a big cause of this is quite often, especially at high pressure clubs like Spurs and Newcastle, incomings are not given enough time to settle down before they are thrown out.

That is probably our biggest ally in trying to compete. At Rovers we can't afford to change the squad each season so we gradually build and try to get our players back on track rather than chopping and changing all the time. THis makes the players confident to express themselves, and knits together our tactics. I doubt, for example, a player like Bentley would have matured unless he got the playing time. Same with Samba or Pedersen.

In a way all the money thrown around destabalises things as much as it improves them. We have to use this strength to our advantage.