[Archived] Rovers Takeover Thread

[Plastic Head]

The Icelandic connection is interesting to say the least. Exista is a well-diversified Icelandic holding/financial services group with a particular interest in non-life insurance. In the current turmoil afflicting Iceland, its share price has fluctuated wildly between IsKr 14 and IsKr 10 this year and is currently around IsKr 12. The Icelandic Kroner has devalued by about 25% against the Euro recently but as £ has devalued as well it makes British investment "relatively" less less attractive- buying in the UK has got more expensive for Icelanders using Krone but nowhere near as expensive as buying in the Euro zone.

Exista is the largest shareholder in Kaupthing Bank and Icelandic Telecom. Kaupthing is Iceland's largest bank and an indicator of its current situation is that it is paying a margin of 10% for inter-bank instruments (CDS) securing its international deposits whereas the norm should be 0.5% at the moment.

The Icelanders will probably emerge from the current crisis poorer and wiser but fundamentally OK. The timing for an Icelandic finance institution to get involved in an EPL club is bizarre to say the least when Icelandic interest rates stand at 15.5%.

Looking forwards, Icelanders have shown they know how to become major global players despite having a population of only 250,000- a lesson in punching many many times above their weight.

Landesbanki will be the largest bank as it is state owned. It is certainly a good time to go to Iceland...works out about £6 a half-litre of pils....bargain.

I can't see how buying a Prem club would benefit a company like JJB unless someone in Iceland particularly wants to be involved.

I think we may be better looking to the east for investment rather than (north) west in the current climate.

[philipl]

Kaupthing is nearly twice as big as Landsbanki and ranked as 1006th largest company in the world on Forbes most recent ranking.

However, in terms of CDS-pricing credit rating (where lower is better) Lloyds TSB is about 133 and HSBC is 145. HBos at the worst of its recent crisis slipped over 200. Bear Sterns was at 720 when it went under/ had an arranged marriage.

Kaupthing is well over 800!

[Iceman]

So if this happens,wil ewood change to the JJB park? Lol there is whispers coming out of jersey that sumthing might happen before the new season starts.

[Beta Ray Bill]

So if this happens,wil ewood change to the JJB park? Lol there is whispers coming out of jersey that sumthing might happen before the new season starts.

Where do you hear these whispers from? Starting your own rumours or adding 2+2 to make 16?

[Iceman]

Nicko knows more than me.im stil trying to figure out what the trustees exactly want.because chris ronnies reported 25 mill is less than what dan williams offered.so it has to be the right individual who wil take the club forward and who has a decent track record in the sports world.

[joey_big_nose]

Without wanting to sound negative I have absolutely no idea what an Icelandic company can get out of a Premiership football team like Rovers.

Football clubs are a vanity product not a business concern. We have to have one of th elowest turnovwers in the league.

I am suspicious... I hope these guys are coming in expecting us to lose them money not make them money.

[American]

Probably expecting the Premier League to keep growing and be able to sell for at least double that price in 5-10 years.

[philipl]

Probably expecting the Premier League to keep growing and be able to sell for at least double that price in 5-10 years.

Problem with that reasoning is that 15% of the Premiership membership gets chucked out every year. On a five year horizon, only 13 of the 20 clubs in the Premiership have spent every one of the last five seasons playing Premier League football, a figure that drops to 8 clubs for every one of the past ten seasons.

I suspect a key question of the new comsortium is what they would do in the event of Rovers being relegated. If the answer is a better one than the Trustees themselves would give if asked the same, we will be very fortunate.

[American]

See your point, but it just gives them incentive to keep the investment to a place where we can stay up.

[joey_big_nose]

See your point, but it just gives them incentive to keep the investment to a place where we can stay up.

Fair point but, even if they were stupid investors, they would realise we don't have much of a fan base, we depend on having a decent manager, and every season there is a decent chance we could be relegated if everything explodes unexpectantly. Plus thre are already ten clubs in the league with investors who will do the same.

Maybe I just don't get it but as far as investments go it seems to me we are pretty enormously risky without having any guarantee of returns.

However, I guess with all that said you could ask "why did Derby get investment?" They have a slightly bigger support than us but were almost completely relegated when they were sold, and a rubbish squad and a poor manager.

It is a crazy business.

[PAFELL]

Fair point but, even if they were stupid investors, they would realise we don't have much of a fan base, we depend on having a decent manager, and every season there is a decent chance we could be relegated if everything explodes unexpectantly. Plus thre are already ten clubs in the league with investors who will do the same.

Maybe I just don't get it but as far as investments go it seems to me we are pretty enormously risky without having any guarantee of returns.

However, I guess with all that said you could ask "why did Derby get investment?" They have a slightly bigger support than us but were almost completely relegated when they were sold, and a rubbish squad and a poor manager.

It is a crazy business.

It is also the timing of the investment that should be considered. Rovers now have a good manager - a top ten team (being realistic) with the potential to be top six and better with the right investment - not a bad squad of players -to buy now would be ideal because of the job Hughes is doing at the moment. How often have we all said that if Mark Hughes had more money to spend then Rovers would do a lot better.

A few years ago Rovers were fighting Relegation - (wrong time to invest in a football club)

Now Rovers are in the top ten, with a manager who has NOW proved himself to be a good, shrewd manager - something this current interested buyer would have noticed -afterall you don't just wake up one morning having millions in the bank and decide to buy a football club or any other buisness. Surely you search, watch etc before becoming seriously interested. The facilities Rovers have are a lot better than some other premier clubs - therefore don't need to build those.Therefore now is right time to invest and to push on to break nto the top four - thus generating more profit etc.

A few years ago an investor would have looked at Rovers and saw nothing to invest in apart from a club heading towards relegation, and a club that would need mega bucks to regenerate. Now everything is in place for someone to come in and recreate the Jack Walker days (could never replace, of course) - because the foundations are already laid and now is the time to build upon them.

We all know that most of the top 4 fan base is made up of glory hunters - who do not really support the football club. The same would happen at Rovers when the glory returns - Ewood Park would be full - a new stand would eventually follow - all subject to how the team does on the pitch. The glory days are on the way back with good sound investment.

[ABBEY]

it will take more than 25m to recreate the jw days more like 250m

[Rovers in America]

We all know that most of the top 4 fan base is made up of glory hunters - who do not really support the football club. The same would happen at Rovers when the glory returns - Ewood Park would be full - a new stand would eventually follow - all subject to how the team does on the pitch. The glory days are on the way back with good sound investment.

Yup, if one of those top 4 clubs starts losing, watch people flee them like crazy. Especially their foreign support. They'll flock to the newest and latest attraction then.

[sparky12]

Some big 'ifs' there folks!

Just 25 Million?

it might not be the hundreds of millions that you'd get 4 utd but they might be leaving a good amount of money for transfers and from what iv heard they will be putting alot into the club for varius things

[Cocker]

No contact yet it seems

[Cheshireblue]

This is a real worry.

Ronnie is a stooge for Mike Ashley, who you will all know from Sports Direct (formally Sportsworld) and Newcastle. What ever Mike says, Chris does. Kaupthing are Sports Directs Brokers. Exista is the fund that helped Mike Ashley get control at Newcastle, again using Kaupthing as their advisers. Legally, they were advised by Freshfields, one of whose partners, Chris Mort is now the Chairman at Newcastle.

If this is a back door takeover by Ashley (and it must be as JJB have no cash - They are selling 20% of their stores because they need the cash to continue their re-branding) then Ashley will say whatever he needs to say to make the Trustees happy. He will promise the earth and that just flatly refuse to deliver it.

JJB bought the retail rights off Rangers in the same way that Nike did with ManUre - They have just decided to close 40% of the Rangers stores and as you might imagine, Rangers are livid. Everton have also fallen out with them and are ending their deal and going direct with Umbro rather than through JJB as per the current deal.

Ronnie has a poor IQ for a glass of water, and I am convinced there is no way he could put together a deal for the club unless Ashley was backing him. Especially given JJB's current precarious position.

If it is Ashley, then he clearly has a buyer for Newcastle lined up, given that they now look safe from relegation. Either that or he is going to keep it separate just like he has kept his ownership of JJB separate.

Hopefully, the trustees will continue their good work and not let this man anywhere near our club. There is no way that UK listed plc with a market cap as paltry as JJB's can possibly be good for the long term future of the club.

In my view, there is more chance of that American charlatan Wiliams buying us, and we all know how likely that is...

[Eddie]

Hopefully, the trustees will continue their good work

and what exactly would that be...

[Paul]

and what exactly would that be...

Well to begin with using their no doubt extensive contacts to prove or disprove Cheshire Blue's concerns - and I've no idea if he's right or wrong. If I had to chose one man I wouldn't want assocciated with Rovers it would be, currently, Mike Ashley. This guy is interested in nothing more than buying and selling anything be it a football club, pair of trainers or a whole chain of naff sportswear shops.

[philipl]

I suspect the "we have heard nothing" response which has so quickly appeared in the LT from the club speaks volumes.

Like it or lump it, and we all hate it, the club is still collecting significant payments on the "club" shop so the rider "and we don't want to hear anything either" could hardly be added.

Offering £25m is a bit like Rovers offering £10m for Ronaldo.

[nicko]

I suspect the "we have heard nothing" response which has so quickly appeared in the LT from the club speaks volumes.

It tells me a lot about the LT and their 'contact.'

You would have thought they could track down Chris Ronnie. Surely he is the guy driving the thing.

Interesting that there are 'other bidders.' If you didn't know better you would say someone is trying to push up the asking price...

[philipl]

Apart from this bit:

But, while a well-placed Rovers source confirmed the trustees' advisers, Rothschild, ARE still in active talks with a number of interested parties in regard to a possible takeover, the Lancashire Telegraph understands those discussions have not as yet involved Ronnie, or anybody claiming to represent him.

The source said: "The sale process continues and there are a number of people talking to the trustees' advisers.

"However, Chris Ronnie's name has never cropped up to my knowledge at any stage in the process."

All the LT's story is lifted from this thread and the links provided.

[Cheshireblue]

and what exactly would that be...

You do follow Rovers, don't you Eddie?

[Fife Rover]

Admittedly I know next to nothing about the legal niceties of taking over a football club, but I always thought that no person or corporate body could own more than one football club at any given time. If this is indeed the case then Ashley would have to sever all his interests in Newcastle Utd before he would be allowed to even bid for Rovers. Also as he is obviously a diehard Newcastle fan as well, is it likely that he would ever have any interest in acquiring and promoting the interests of Blackburn Rovers?

[modes98]

Admittedly I know next to nothing about the legal niceties of taking over a football club, but I always thought that no person or corporate body could own more than one football club at any given time. If this is indeed the case then Ashley would have to sever all his interests in Newcastle Utd before he would be allowed to even bid for Rovers. Also as he is obviously a diehard Newcastle fan as well, is it likely that he would ever have any interest in acquiring and promoting the interests of Blackburn Rovers?

I think the point was that he isn't trying to buy us, Chris Ronnie is. Granted they are basically one and the same but not in the eyes of the law and premier league.

But you are correct in that no 1 business or person can own 2 clubs in the same competition as it's a conflict of interests. I think it is possible for you to own or at least invest in more than 1 club worldwide, as long as they don't face each other in meaningful matches.

[ABBEY]

Admittedly I know next to nothing about the legal niceties of taking over a football club, but I always thought that no person or corporate body could own more than one football club at any given time. If this is indeed the case then Ashley would have to sever all his interests in Newcastle Utd before he would be allowed to even bid for Rovers. Also as he is obviously a diehard Newcastle fan as well, is it likely that he would ever have any interest in acquiring and promoting the interests of Blackburn Rovers?

i can see things going like the club shop