[Archived] Rovers Takeover Thread

[allanncd]

A going concern business has a value based on its expected future profit stream. The current owners believe the club is a "drain" because it cannot maintain a significant level of profit even in the Premier League. Therefore the company has no value other than the value of its assets in a winding up. Clearly the Trustees cannot sell to an asset-stripper but they are entitled to ask a price based on the value of those assets - but at a substantial discount because nobody pays £1 to realise £1. I would say a realistic price is about £20m and as the asking price is apparently at least double that it's no surprise there is no real interest. The Trustees are adopting a high risk strategy in holding out for a higher price because if Ince falls on his face and the club is relegated this season or next there would be a funding hole of about £30m that has to be filled by a fire sale of players. Then the club has little asset value and is playing in a lower league so the price becomes zilch. I have always suspected that the stuffed shirts at Rothschilds know little about the economics of football and either the Trustees are not getting the right advice or they are not listening. This takeover farrago has been going on too long and that suggets someone is not on the right wavelength.

[joey_big_nose]

Why on earth would another buyer want to pay good money to fulfill the wishes of a previous owner who has been dead for 8 years? Especially when the very organisation set up to do just that is saying, 'over to you matey, we've had enough'

It's been up for sale for a year, it hasn't attracted buyers with the wealth of Warren Buffet and the moral rectitude of Mother Theresa, so if it is as you describe, surely by now the Trustees would say, 'OK, we've had a look, there aren't any suitable buyers, so we'll carry on executing our obligations as per the early days of the Trust.'

But then we all know they aren't going to do that.

If they want to sell, then sell the damned thing and let's all move on.

I think you are polarising this a bit. Whilst the Trust does want to sell I do think they are trying to exercise good judgement in the sale. They are not going to sell to an asset stripper, or a short term profit maker, or whoever else.

For that they should be applauded. We need the right buyer. And the bottom line of that is a) having long term commitment money available to strengthen the squad c) sound intentions.

This will be difficult to find. The minute they start a run to sell no matter what we are in serious trouble as we could end up with who knows what in charge.

[Exiled in Toronto]

I think you are polarising this a bit. Whilst the Trust does want to sell I do think they are trying to exercise good judgement in the sale. They are not going to sell to an asset stripper, or a short term profit maker, or whoever else.

For that they should be applauded. We need the right buyer. And the bottom line of that is a) having long term commitment money available to strengthen the squad c) sound intentions.

This will be difficult to find. The minute they start a run to sell no matter what we are in serious trouble as we could end up with who knows what in charge.

So how long would you like this careful search to take if a year isn't long enough? 2 years? 5 years? 20 years? Bearing in mind it is all being played out in the public domain, as in everyone knows we are for sale, which everyone not unreasonably interprets as the current owners want out, aren't investing etc. Is there any long term planning going on during this prolonged period of uncertainty?

[Brfcrule1]

Hi all,

Nicko will there be anything in the people this sunday regarding the takeover? any developments

John Posted Yesterday, 19:34

How can you sell the club if there is no one else to run it appropriately?

well that is not entirely true at the end of the day C.Ronnie has the necessary finances to take this club to the next level last I heard he was worth 330 million+ as the rest of his consortium must be worth a lot more

allanncd Posted Yesterday, 21:34

A going concern business has a value based on its expected future profit stream. The current owners believe the club is a "drain" because it cannot maintain a significant level of profit even in the Premier League. Therefore the company has no value other than the value of its assets in a winding up. Clearly the Trustees cannot sell to an asset-stripper but they are entitled to ask a price based on the value of those assets - but at a substantial discount because nobody pays £1 to realise £1. I would say a realistic price is about £20m and as the asking price is apparently at least double that it's no surprise there is no real interest. The Trustees are adopting a high risk strategy in holding out for a higher price because if Ince falls on his face and the club is relegated this season or next there would be a funding hole of about £30m that has to be filled by a fire sale of players. Then the club has little asset value and is playing in a lower league so the price becomes zilch. I have always suspected that the stuffed shirts at Rothschilds know little about the economics of football and either the Trustees are not getting the right advice or they are not listening. This takeover farrago has been going on too long and that suggets someone is not on the right wavelength.

I agree with a lot of what you say but something stands out as true about the high risk strategy by them holding out for a higher price if Ince does not do as well and we get relegated heaven's forbid as you say we will not be in the best league in the world so potential buyers will not pay as much as if we were in the prem Lge

Exiled in Toronto

So how long would you like this careful search to take if a year isn't long enough? 2 years? 5 years? 20 years? Bearing in mind it is all being played out in the public domain, as in everyone knows we are for sale, which everyone not unreasonably interprets as the current owners want out, aren't investing etc. Is there any long term planning going on during this prolonged period of uncertainty?

I agree on the last point has any long term strategy been put in place in this period of uncertainty also the longer it goes on the more likely it is that players of Santa Cruz's value,Benni Mac's,Samba's value will no longer be available as transfer fees are going up sky high it also looks like to me the Walkers trustees think we are still in the 94-95 season it's not like these days you can buy a squad for 30million total pay them 30-40 grand each and you win the EPL it was always going to soar out of control surely Uncle Jack had the foresight to see that not that he is to blame in any way as he achieved what no other will achieve in this lifetime although did he not give Brian Kidd 100Million to play withat the end of the day the longer this goes on the worse it will be as eventually we will no longer be able to compete I think the WT have to realise they need to lower the price or keep the funding until a suitable buyer is found

Rant over

Laters all.

[nicko]

Nicko will there be anything in the people this sunday regarding the takeover? any developments

Yes...and there is.

[Sandiway Blue]

Yes...and there is.

New potential bidders? or existing ones increasing their bids?

[John]

Yes...and there is.

After all the hype, hopefully not as deflating as last week.

Let me guess, Nabeel Chowdery has sold all his overseas properties so he can afford the asking price set by the club?

[yoda]

After all the hype, hopefully not as deflating as last week.

Let me guess, Nabeel Chowdery has sold all his overseas properties so he can afford the asking price set by the club?

The Chowdery family very rarely sell property, they still regret selling the cinema in Blackburn!

[Bobby G]

Nickos comment did not have any positive spin on it and from it I assume its something negative, otherwise we probably wouldve heard something too...

[Taggart]

Yes...and there is.

Positive news.............is it finally going to happen ?

[Blackburn Ender]

Den, whether the level of funding under Hughes was adequate is subjective.

You can argue it was entirely appropriate given three top 10 finishes.

It also made Hughes and his team work hard to unearth some gems on the cheap and no one is saying that was a bad thing?

Why can't Ince operate the same way?

As to future funding, if TV income remains the same or higher and wages can be kept manageable, then, no, the Trust may not need to provide a top-up any season soon.

We, as fans, may want them to. But from a business point of view, there's probably not a case to answer.

Taking Rovers to another level could cost what Spurs, Villa, Portsmouth, Man City and Everton are currently spending and it's probable the Trust just doesn't have that kind of cash.

I prefer the stability we have now to being placed at the mercy of an Ashley type owner any day.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Den, whether the level of funding under Hughes was adequate is subjective.

So you believe that a £0 budget ( before player sales) is reasonable in todays climate?

You can argue it was entirely appropriate given three top 10 finishes.

Nonesense, rovers comparitive success is down to excellent manager, getting the very best out of a somewhat limited squad. additionaly the manager has a great deal of luck with all of his very astute signings. Who is to say that Ince will have the same amount of luck.It also made Hughes and his team work hard to unearth some gems on the cheap and no one is saying that was a bad thing?

You cannot keep on relying on a manager taking punts on bargain bsement signings. Some work but the majority fail; take a look at most other clubs.

Why can't Ince operate the same way?

Beacuse Ince isn't Hughes

As to future funding, if TV income remains the same or higher and wages can be kept manageable, then, no, the Trust may not need to provide a top-up any season soon.

But even with a additional 20 milion a sesaon going into coffers, the board will still not release a workabale amount of money for the mannger to spend. We should have in theory a good wedge to spend, with the massive increase in revunue; however it appaears that we dont....

We, as fans, may want them to. But from a business point of view, there's probably not a case to answer.

Taking Rovers to another level could cost what Spurs, Villa, Portsmouth, Man City and Everton are currently spending and it's probable the Trust just doesn't have that kind of cash.

The trust is worth a reported 700 million, and are the amongst the top six richest owners in the Premiership- that argument dosent stack up

I prefer the stability we have now to being placed at the mercy of an Ashley type owner any day.

Anyone but ashley, however the club is hardly stable at the moment is it? he have a new manager, backroom staff and the 4/5 of the first choice XI either want to move-on or are thinking about it. I realy believe that the postion the trust is taking is ultimaly damaging the club. In terms of investment ,morale amongst players, staff and fans. Not to mention the clubs personna in the media.

[Majiball]

I think you are polarising this a bit. Whilst the Trust does want to sell I do think they are trying to exercise good judgement in the sale. They are not going to sell to an asset stripper, or a short term profit maker, or whoever else.

For that they should be applauded. We need the right buyer. And the bottom line of that is a) having long term commitment money available to strengthen the squad c) sound intentions.

This will be difficult to find. The minute they start a run to sell no matter what we are in serious trouble as we could end up with who knows what in charge.

Completely agree, given the current finacial climate in the EPL we can survive without them, provided we continue in the same astute manner as before. The last thing I want to see is my beloved club being sold to some moron in it for a quick buck!

So how long would you like this careful search to take if a year isn't long enough? 2 years? 5 years? 20 years? Bearing in mind it is all being played out in the public domain, as in everyone knows we are for sale, which everyone not unreasonably interprets as the current owners want out, aren't investing etc. Is there any long term planning going on during this prolonged period of uncertainty?

As long as is nessacery to get in the right sort of man, the trust may want to sell but they don't have too. There is no rush, yes it would be good if its happens sooner rather than later, but we still have a strong squad, and with JW in charge a man who will do everything in his power to keep us at the level we currently occupy.

Yes...and there is.

Is it good news, I suspect it is, isn't it Nicko????

[den]

Not often I agree with you Bazza, but you see it the way I do at the moment.

I prefer the stability we have now to being placed at the mercy of an Ashley type owner any day.

I'm not quite sure I understand what you mean by this? The stability of having invested absolutely zilch [net terms] over the past three years into the team? We can only remain a Prem club by spending more money than we are doing at present. The trust don't see any need to invest, - so what needs to happen before they see that need again?

[PAFELL]

After all the hype, hopefully not as deflating as last week.

Let me guess, Nabeel Chowdery has sold all his overseas properties so he can afford the asking price set by the club?

How can you call last weeks news from Nicko deflating. Somebody else interested in taking over Rovers. Even if people do not like for whatever reason Nabeel Chowdrey or think he has enough money or not (I am not saying that is the case) but the fact that somebody else is interested in buying Rovers is good news and not deflating news.

[OscarRaven]

The stability of having invested absolutely zilch [net terms] over the past three years into the team? We can only remain a Prem club by spending more money than we are doing at present.

The success over the last three years doesn't seem to support your supposition that we cant stay in the PL with our current funding levels.

Yes exceptionally good management is required, are you suggesting we no longer have this?

[gumboots]

The success over the last three years doesn't seem to support your supposition that we cant stay in the PL with our current funding levels.

Yes exceptionally good management is required, are you suggesting we no longer have this?

Nobody knows. we got lucky with Hughes who got lucky with some of his bargain buys. They could just as easily have flopped. Whether Ince can do the same kind of thing with incoming players is a "wait and see".

[RevidgeBlue]

I prefer the stability we have now to being placed at the mercy of an Ashley type owner any day.

There is no stability whatsoever in the current situation - if the Trustees were to remain in control for a prolonged period of time and are still unwilling to invest in the club one of two situations is likely to arise:

a) Even if we have a string of succesful managers, like Hughes they'll soon become frustrated with the lack of financial support, and we'll have more or less a revolving door for managers.

or

B ) Future managers won't be able to operate without a workable transfer budget as well as Hughes putting our Premiership status at risk.

The current impasse has to be resolved asap. In many ways, if the Trustees aren't prepared to put ANYTHING in until they sell I'd almost go as far to say as the Club would be better of with you or me in charge, people who at least have a desperately keen interest in how we're faring as opposed to people who patently have no interest in that and who are damaging the club's image by making it so publcly obvious they want out.

[PAFELL]

There is no stability whatsoever in the current situation - if the Trustees were to remain in control for a prolonged period of time and are still unwilling to invest in the club one of two situations is likely to arise:

a) Even if we have a string of succesful managers, like Hughes they'll soon become frustrated with the lack of financial support, and we'll have more or less a revolving door for managers.

or

B ) Future managers won't be able to operate without a workable transfer budget as well as Hughes putting our Premiership status at risk.

The current impasse has to be resolved asap. In many ways, if the Trustees aren't prepared to put ANYTHING in until they sell I'd almost go as far to say as the Club would be better of with you or me in charge, people who at least have a desperately keen interest in how we're faring as opposed to people who patently have no interest in that and who are damaging the club's image by making it so publcly obvious they want out.

You seem to forget that another way that Rovers can help themselves is by investing in a good youth policy at the acadame. It may be a long term project but if rovers can spot young talent and train them - that saves money.

[RevidgeBlue]

You seem to forget that another way that Rovers can help themselves is by investing in a good youth policy at the acadame. It may be a long term project but if rovers can spot young talent and train them - that saves money.

Well yes, obviously in an ideal world the Academy would be key to our prospects, and would be churning out a constant conveyor belt worth of talent. As opposed to the nil return we seem to have been getting in recent years.

I would have thought that has to be urgently addressed regardless of any change in ownership.

[Majiball]

You seem to forget that another way that Rovers can help themselves is by investing in a good youth policy at the acadame. It may be a long term project but if rovers can spot young talent and train them - that saves money.

Well yes, obviously in an ideal world the Academy would be key to our prospects, and would be churning out a constant conveyor belt worth of talent. As opposed to the nil return we seem to have been getting in recent years.

I would have thought that has to be urgently addressed regardless of any change in ownership.

Completely agree, we've produced next to nothing of premiership quality, Dunn prior to his injury and Wilcox are the only two who have made the 1st team and stayed there. If Bentley goes they should take a hefty portion of that money and invest in the academy. I suspect a complete new approach would be required, coaches and all, given the lack of production. It may be years before it comes to fruition but it would be worth it!

[American]

I think instead of concentrating on the youth academy, do it the Arsenal way and find good, younger, foreign talent to bring into the youth squad and the reserves. The big difference between what they do and what we could afford is that we would need to concentrate on areas that aren't as well developed football-wise, such as Africa and Asia. We can't afford to go after the targets that Arsenal does, just maybe the ones they decide not to go for.

[FourLaneBlue]

I think instead of concentrating on the youth academy, do it the Arsenal way and find good, younger, foreign talent to bring into the youth squad and the reserves. The big difference between what they do and what we could afford is that we would need to concentrate on areas that aren't as well developed football-wise, such as Africa and Asia. We can't afford to go after the targets that Arsenal does, just maybe the ones they decide not to go for.

I agree. It is not so much the coaching in the Academy (although there serious question marks over that which have been rumbling for years - too many reliable people have criticised the place for it to be just passed off as sour grapes) but more that the quality we have been bringing into the Academy has simply not been good enough.

[The Prof.]

I think instead of concentrating on the youth academy, do it the Arsenal way and find good, younger, foreign talent to bring into the youth squad and the reserves. The big difference between what they do and what we could afford is that we would need to concentrate on areas that aren't as well developed football-wise, such as Africa and Asia. We can't afford to go after the targets that Arsenal does, just maybe the ones they decide not to go for.

Good point but last time I was at Brockhall there did seem a lot of young overseas players already. And we seem to bring in French coaches too on regular visits. You won't try if you can't see anyone being given a chance though.

Even at Arsenal the academy/reserve players are largely 'bought in' and there is an issue with local talent being left out (see Bentley) but using one cup competition to give them a chance helps hugely - even if we get knocked out you'll pick up a player or two who can push on. At the moment thats not happening at all and Gallagher is a clear example of this. He has had chances but never a real run in the team. Arguably he has taken hid chances (remember the 3-1 cup win when he a Derbyshire ran rings round a full Everton team and then got left out!).

The size and quality of the current first team squad is one reason but imagine the hoo ha on this board if we decided to reduce it to give 'youth a chance.'

Perhaps loans out to give regular football at championship level would have helped players like Gally - On the other hand if I was Gally and really wanted to play football I'd have gone already - Stoke City?

[Majiball]

I think instead of concentrating on the youth academy, do it the Arsenal way and find good, younger, foreign talent to bring into the youth squad and the reserves. The big difference between what they do and what we could afford is that we would need to concentrate on areas that aren't as well developed football-wise, such as Africa and Asia. We can't afford to go after the targets that Arsenal does, just maybe the ones they decide not to go for.

Trouble is africa, is well covered by the French, Spanish clubs and has been for a while. Also what the crack with kids around 10-12, do they need work permits??? Bringing kids into the youth squad is fine but since they are already at least 16-18, then you are hunting for blossoming talent, poaching off other clubs, fees 95K a year, it would soon add up. this would be the first step, the second would be exactly as arsenal have done there academy is blossoming and will bloom in a couple of years, Lansbury, Wilshere to name but two who have come through the ranks this year (huge potential), 6 contracts I believe where given, thats a high number in the first place then add that there all English. Arsenal however have the benefit of Wenger's stability and long term vision, we do not.

Good point but last time I was at Brockhall there did seem a lot of young overseas players already. And we seem to bring in French coaches too on regular visits. You won't try if you can't see anyone being given a chance though.

Even at Arsenal the academy/reserve players are largely 'bought in' and there is an issue with local talent being left out (see Bentley) but using one cup competition to give them a chance helps hugely - even if we get knocked out you'll pick up a player or two who can push on. At the moment thats not happening at all and Gallagher is a clear example of this. He has had chances but never a real run in the team. Arguably he has taken hid chances (remember the 3-1 cup win when he a Derbyshire ran rings round a full Everton team and then got left out!).

The size and quality of the current first team squad is one reason but imagine the hoo ha on this board if we decided to reduce it to give 'youth a chance.'

Perhaps loans out to give regular football at championship level would have helped players like Gally - On the other hand if I was Gally and really wanted to play football I'd have gone already - Stoke City?

Bringing in coaches on visits is fine, but what do they do, one session with Pierre, then another with Alfonso (all with different ideas and philosophy's). to have good production you need a single vision not constantly changing ones, it will be too confusing.

Arsenal do not leave out local talent, please see above.

Personally, if people want to kick up stink because we lose one player on 10K-15K a week fine its an investment in the future of the club and those that can't see would be so narrow minded, I would laugh.

Gally has had so many chances at championship level and even then he has not really set the world on fire.

Wilcox and Dunn are the only two regular first teamers in 18 years (correct me if I'm wrong). I hate to think where that would put us statistically, with every other league club. What happened to De Vita, came with huge promise, released whats happened?? The whole Youth structure from academy through to U18's needs an overhaul, perhaps they should take greater advantage of the link with LJMU!