[Archived] Shall We Have A Bet?

[vintageadidas]

I have had a good read of the Message Board today and noticed many people indicating they had put a bet on this and that. I thought it would be a good idea to set up a thread where people can talk about decent bets, who they think will win the Champions League, Promotion to the Premierleague and so on.

I have Chelsea to win 2-1 and Drogba to score first - 50/1 i got that for.

I am also thinking of putting a bet on Hull City, Leeds and Rochdale to get promotion.

I am thinking France or Holland for Euro 2008.

[philipl]

Only put money on Leeds if you watched Doncaster 5 Southend 0 and still think Leeds will win.

If you didn't watch that game, steer well clear of the Play-off.

Incidentally, accumulators are the bookies' delight.

[S15]

Germany will win the Euros.

[Grabbi Graeme]

Have put Ballack as first goalscorer also done Chelsea half time, Man U full time.

[Hasta]

The bet for the weekend is Hull to go up at 8/11 for me.

It's the best bet since Zenit St Petersberg at 6/5.

[Iceman]

i placed a bet at the beginning of the season that wolves would get Promoted

[LeftWinger]

This is taken from football365 about Paddy Power. I had this email yesterday, but only read it after seeing this....

Bookies and professional publicity stunt merchants Paddy Power were hawking their recommended bets around the punters of the nation in a mass e-mail before the final yesterday, but Mediawatch suspects they didn't think their headlines through.

For, above a picture of Chelsea's Israeli manager Avram Grant was scribbled the header 'Final Solution'.

Nice work chaps.

EDIT...There is a screen shot of it here

http://kerstinbakerash.typepad.com/photos/.../paddypower.jpg

[Hasta]

They probably knew what they were doing.

edited because I might have imagined that or exagerated that.

Typical Paddy Power advertising here.

[Neil Weaver]

Hmmm, worth thinking about..... Queen of the South 10/1 or draw 4/1 for the Scottish Cup Final vs Rangers on Sat. Seems decent odds considering events earlier tonight (sorry T4E).

[Cocker]

Last season I put £75 into my online account in September. Over the season I am up £680.

What I do is to only bet the favorites across the leagues so if you have Man U playing Derby - put it on. The odds are rubbish of course but with a few others in an accumulator it makes all the difference. What you then do is not to stick it all on one accumulator. Depending on how many bets you have on you do something called a 8 fold (or 7 or 6 but you get the idea). What this does is give you a safety net so that if one team in the list looses you still win. Last season quite a few times I had some come in that wouldn't have had I not done it this way.

Really the two best things I say are:-

1. Dont get greedy - stop looking at things like Boro to beat West Ham because the odds might be quite good. Only bet the favorites.

2. Dont chase your bets. Limit yourself to what you put on each week and if the ones dont make it on Saturday leave it alone till the next week

I dont claim to know it all (as the above might sound) but its been working for me.

[grizfoot]

Had £20 on Ourneyade at 4/9, the horse that Sam Thomas took on the wrong track and got suspensed for last week. Was told it was a sure thing at Stretfrod tonight and it turned out to be so winning very comfortable. That pays for my weekend takeaway at least.

I don't bet that often although I usually do okay when I do especially horses. Although I have more knowledge in the field of football I just never seem to win betting on the footy, been close with a couple of potentially big accumulators in the past though. Hopefully that will change this summer I fancy having a flutter on some of the Euro 2008 matches to make it a little more interesting.

[Hasta]

Had £20 on Ourneyade at 4/9, the horse that Sam Thomas took on the wrong track and got suspensed for last week. Was told it was a sure thing at Stretfrod tonight and it turned out to be so winning very comfortable. That pays for my weekend takeaway at least.

I don't bet that often although I usually do okay when I do especially horses. Although I have more knowledge in the field of football I just never seem to win betting on the footy, been close with a couple of potentially big accumulators in the past though. Hopefully that will change this summer I fancy having a flutter on some of the Euro 2008 matches to make it a little more interesting.

I had £5 e/w on Tip Topp last week at 11/1 which was the horse that won the race that Sam Thomas ballsed up in. Talk about my luck being in!!

Still just Hull to go up this weekend for me.

[American]

The problem with accumulators is that people pick too many teams. Picked Rovers and Newcastle the first week of the season, and won 160E on a 20E bet. My friend started just picking 2 or 3 teams and has done much better since.

[Eddie]

I agree with those of you who say to back favourites in a small accumulator. You will generally win, the winnings just won't be huge (but it all adds up and it is better than losing your money).

The other area where I probably win about 70% of the time is on US flat-track horse racing. Simply do a little bit of research and then bet on a horse to place. It takes very little time to look into it and brings me a lot of success. Again, the winnings won't be huge, but as long as you don't get greedy (a big loss messes the system up), you'll regularly make a big of a profit and it will add up.

[Ray-Von]

Now this will probably appear to be a really daft question about Betfair but bear with me......

I'm fine with the principle of "backing" but "laying" confuses me a tad. For example, ive just been looking at the next Chelsea manager odds. Roy Keane is currently 180. If I laid this at say £2.00, apparently the payment would be 360.00 plus the stake. Surely that can't be right?

[grizfoot]

Now this will probably appear to be a really daft question about Betfair but bear with me......

I'm fine with the principle of "backing" but "laying" confuses me a tad. For example, ive just been looking at the next Chelsea manager odds. Roy Keane is currently 180. If I laid this at say £2.00, apparently the payment would be 360.00 plus the stake. Surely that can't be right?

If your laying the odds are reversed in other words the odds are now 1/180, you'd have to match £360 of your own money to make a profit of £2. I don't use Betfair myself but I do believe it is probably the best betting site out there.

[Ray-Von]

If your laying the odds are reversed in other words the odds are now 1/180, you'd have to match £360 of your own money to make a profit of £2. I don't use Betfair myself but I do believe it is probably the best betting site out there.

Thanks for that Grizfoot - thought it seemed a little bit too easy!

[Hasta]

Off to Haydock this aft. Nothing I really fancy but I'm going to back Gee Dee Nan and Ellmau E/W I think. The latter is a big price on Betfair. Fleeting Star is meant to be very good at York.

[Eddie]

Well I had a very good night last night. Won 250 pounds on England/Holland/Brazil winning and followed it up with a 500 pound win on England/New York Mets/Detroit Tigers/Arizona Diamondbacks winning. Happy days.

[Hasta]

Well I had a very good night last night. Won 250 pounds on England/Holland/Brazil winning and followed it up with a 500 pound win on England/New York Mets/Detroit Tigers/Arizona Diamondbacks winning. Happy days.

Nobody likes an aftertimer.

Off to Haydock this aft. Nothing I really fancy but I'm going to back Gee Dee Nan and Ellmau E/W I think.

Just for the record Gee Dee Nan was 12/1 in the morning. Opened at 6/1 and won at 9/2 albeit with the favourite as a non-runner.

Ellmau was unlucky, 4th at 40/1

[Eddie]

Nobody likes an aftertimer.

Just for the record Gee Dee Nan was 12/1 in the morning. Opened at 6/1 and won at 9/2 albeit with the favourite as a non-runner.

If it makes you feel any better...I've lost every bet I've placed tonight.

[ABBEY]

can someone give an easy explanation of betfair ,ta

[Hasta]

Abbey,

Bets are made against each other. There is no bookie as such. Betfair take commission off every bet so they can't lose (5% initially).

When looking at a market the 'blue' column is the back figure. This is the odds you can back at like at a normal bookies. For example on the Chelsea manager market Hughes is currently 7.8 which is equivalent to 6.8/1 (decimal odds obviously include returning your winning stake).

Most people get confused with the pink 'lay' column. This enables you to lay the bet as if you were the bookie. For example you can 'lay' hughes currently at 8.0 which means that someone else backs Hughes with you at that price. Therefore for example they give you a tenner and you stand the bet at 7/1 . If Hughes then become manager you have to pay out £70. If he doesn't you win the tenner.

That is technically what happens although an easier way to look at the 'lay' column is to look at it as though you're backing an event NOT to happen. Therefore laying Hughes to become Cheslea boss at 8.0 is the same as backing Hughes NOT to become Chelsea boss at 1/7.

Basically thats it. Backing is straight forward and you can get really good prices you can't get at normal bookies (25/1 Czech Republic for Euro 2008 for example). Laying does take some getting used to so be careful and always read the liability screen before confirming you bet. You need to deposit cash into your account before you can bet so fortunately you can't screw up and cost yourself more than you've deposited.

The other beauty of it is that you can trade on markets. For example when Hughes was 16/1 you could put £20 on him to win £320. When he came in to 3/1 the other day you could then lay £60 to lose £180.

This means that if Hughes DID became Chelsea manager you lost the £180 on the lay bet but won the £320 on the back bet. Therefore you have a profit of £140.

Similarly if Hughes DIDNT become Chelsea manager you lose the £20 back bet but win the £60 from the lay bet. Therefore a profit of £40. You win either way.

This is only really profitable though if you stake fairly big (which believe me I don't) or you can get really big market movers.

There you go. Clear as crystal !

[ABBEY]

So if you lay at 7-1 and someone puts a grand on you need to pay 7 grand out? sounds frought with dangour to me if ive understood that

[Hasta]

So if you lay at 7-1 and someone puts a grand on you need to pay 7 grand out? sounds frought with dangour to me if ive understood that

You can lay as much as you like as long as its available in the pink column. In the case you mention you could lay just £2 to lose £14 and let someone else lay the rest of the £998 available.

Some people think that laying things on Betfair must be a license to print money. It's not. As it's person-person betting then for every winner there is a loser.