[Archived] Barack Obama

[Anti-Dingle-Brigade]

I wonder how good the protection is around Obama. There are a lot of crazy people running around in America who would rather go to prison than see a black man lead the country.

[Rovermatt]

I'd say it's airtight. He's had secret service protection from very early on in his candidacy I believe.

[philipl]

Very puzzled by Opinion Poll movements.

National Opinion Polls all point to a narrowing of Obama's lead to about 6% (with some outlyers suggesting he is 13%).

The only State where this seems to be reflected is Indiana which has now bobbed back into the McCain basket by 2%.

All other "swing" States local polls show the leads which Obama has established scarcely moving one way or the other which means he is holding his lead in everyone of them including Ohio, Florida, Virginia and North Carolina.

What is puzzling me are the latest local State polls:

New York and Illinois- Obama ahead by 35%

California- Obama ahead by 22% (significant surge in his lead there)

Texas- McCain lead down to 11%

Arizona, Montana, Louisiana and Georgia local polls are all in the too close to call category of sub-2% leads for one Presidential candidate or the other. These are places W won by 10%+ margins in 2004 and are considered Republican heartland.

There is quite a disconnect between national opinion polls and what the polls in the individual States are showing.

Are we seeing a manipulation of the national polls?- it is in the interest of both sides (and to an extent the pollsters who sell the data) to call the election as being close. There has been an admitted significant change (on the grounds of achieving greater clarity) in the methodology used by Fox to produce the tiny 3% lead for Obama in its latest poll which of course feeds through to aggregating tracker polls.

[USRoverME]

Frankly I'll be amazed if Obama wins the nationwide vote by more than a few percentage points (anything more than 5% would be a landslide imho), the 2 party system just pretty much eliminates any landslides in the national races (based on the popular vote) because of how polarized they have become. Most people now vote because they can't stand one party or the other, not so much about the people actually running. As an example, I live in a state where you can vote early if you choose, I know some people who did this for various reasons, and when I ask who they vote for, about 70% simply said the party, not the people they voted for. This is of course moreso true about local elections than nationals, but that's the reality of life these days.

that being said, a landslide in the electoral college is very much possible with the way things are shaping up. Though I am still facinated by most people's views on the debates. Personally I think they were the most useless debates I've seen in an election yet (though I'm sure the way things are headed, they'll be even more useless in 4 years), and there were no winners in any of them except the TV stations getting paid to televise them

Me, I'm still undecided as the McCain-Palin camp disgust me, and the Obama-Biden camp, though I admire both of them as individuals, I disagree with many of their goals and proposed policies. Though Obama is the closest I've come to voting for a democrat since a senate race in my old state about 12 years ago I think it was. I'll probably vote some obscure 3rd party just to show that I'm ###### off at both parties (and esentially throw my vote away for the presidency).

[philipl]

Seen from outside the USA, it is a no-brainer. If the USA wants to be an active participant in fighting the economic woes of the World, you have to have a straightforward Keynesian New Deal and only Obama will deliver that.

Palin managed to get the First Ammendment to the Constitution all muddled up and mangled on a right wing talk radio station this morning- that girl really is an airhead when it comes to knowledge as opposed to irrational beliefs. She is totally skewy on science as well.

Seems that civil war is breaking out in the GOP four days ahead of polling day. The latest ABC Poll is showing that the latest round of McCain attack ads directly increase the Obama vote when viewed by undecideds/ not firms just to add to the list of GOP ailments.

[philipl]

25% of all Texans believe Obama is a Muslim so this stuff is hitting home.

Looking at it dispassionately, 90% of the McCain/Palin campaign is utterly and deliberately mis-representation. The positioning that Obama is a socialist and wants to raise taxes (by implication on everybody) is utter rubbish whilst McCain's own economic policy is unbelievably badly thought out and completely uncosted. There is no evidence whatsoever that they have worked out how to eliminate the deficit whilst maintaining their spending plans.

McCain's response to the breaking crisis and the Lehman Bros bankruptcy was straight out of a farce. "The economy is fine", no its not, suspending campaigning, oops better do a rush interview with Katy Curic to avoid the Palin road crash with Curic screening that night, not going to the first debate until the economy is fixed, turned up, rushed to Washington to fix the crisis, sat mute throughout the Bush meeting allowing Obama to ask the intelligent questions of the Bush Treasury and Finance Secretaries, claims to be number 1 cross-party non-partisan operator and was worse than useless in the $750bn rescue package, failed to deliver the vote for the rescue package in Congress, in fact left Congress confused as to whether he supported it or not and had the embarassment of the majority of Republicans voting against him twice, campaigning endlessly against pork barrel and ear marks then finally puts his weight behind the second rescue package which had more earmarks and pork tagged onto it than any other legislation ever passed.

What a star!

Obama's campaign and pledges have plenty of creative spin but at least there are coherent signposts to what he will do economically.

[American]

Me, I'm still undecided as the McCain-Palin camp disgust me, and the Obama-Biden camp, though I admire both of them as individuals, I disagree with many of their goals and proposed policies. Though Obama is the closest I've come to voting for a democrat since a senate race in my old state about 12 years ago I think it was. I'll probably vote some obscure 3rd party just to show that I'm ###### off at both parties (and esentially throw my vote away for the presidency).

Agree with you to a point. As a registered Libertarian, I usually vote our party, but this time I voted Obama. I think the country needs a leader at this point, no matter what the ideals. I also think that Obama is less liberal than people believe.

[American Rover12]

I was really going to vote for Bob Barr, for the same reasons as USRoverMe; total disgust at the two party system in America. Then I was thinking about writing in Harvey Dent. But when it came down to the pen on the paper, I couldn't consciously allow myself to waste a vote knowing that McCain might win.

[Grabbi Graeme]

Ive been in the US for the last week, and interesting to see the news network coverage, although it seems that Fox keeps going on about Obama's links with Rev Wright, Bill Ayes and another fanatic that I cant remember.

[AussieinUk]

Very funny prank call to Sarah Palin, by President Sarkozy (actually a French radio DJ) just yesterday..

Visit My Website

She really hasn't a clue...

[philipl]

"From my arse I can see Belgium"

She got off very lightly there although I bet the folks who do international relations for a living are absolutely aghast that:

1) Her staff failed to pre-vet the call out before it got anywhere near her (OK these guys are very good and have got through and hoaxed a lot of leaders)

2) There was nobody with her monitoring the call who knew anything about France- the false Sarkozy sounds very little like the real one and in his first sentence he speaks about his special American adviser Johnny Holiday. Mind-boggling the call wasn't cut right there.

She could easily have been trapped into much much worse- he could have congratulated the ticket on Dick Cheney's endorsement, profess admiration for Cheney's way of working and got her to say wonderful things about the current VP and sunk McCain/Palin politically.

I'd have been tempted to seek reassurance of her continuing support if re-elected to the current VP's agreement to baqcking France re-joining NATO in return for stationing French strategic nuclear bombers in Alaska to protect France's vital legitimate interests in the Arctic. And been insistent that of course they would have told her about these things when they were briefing her on her day at the UN....

[Billy Castell]

I'd love someone like Rory Bremner pretend to be Gordon Brown in a similar set up. They'd dance around Palin and play her like a fiddle.

[AussieinUk]

Barrack Obama's maternal grandmother has passed away (cancer) on election eve.

IMV, he has got this election in the bag.

Polls open in the next five hours.

[philipl]

I was very struck by the dignity of Obama shown last night going to address that crowd in North Carolina immediately after hearing the news of his grandmother's death. The pictures of Obama with the strreak of a tear gleaming on his otherwise strong and composed face picked up by the lights is iconic.

Immediately after there was footage of Palin going off her prepared speech to launch a really ugly rant about Obama's character. She just came over as a nasty harpy- hard and extremely unpleasant.

She didn't know that Obama's grandmother had just died but there was a chasm of difference between the two candidates of roughly the same age and she was at the bottom of it!

[Rovermatt]

It's the fact that the McCain/Palin ticket consistently offers no real plan for improving the public's lot that gets up my nose. Make no mistake: Obama and Biden are on the offensive also but they have been articulate enough to define their policies rather than constantly calling their opponents' characters into question. Only last week some McCain talking head made a fool of himself and the campaign by claiming Obama was friends with 'numerous' anti-semites only to falter when challenged on the point by the CNN anchor. 'Like who?' the anchor asked. He mumbled something incoherent initially, looking like a Polar Bear who had just spotted Sarah Palin. He could then only offer a weak, bumbling 'I think you know who we mean' by way of explanation. What morons.

McCain started harping on about coal yesterday, implying that Obama is part of a large anti-coal conspiracy (funnily enough the economies of southern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia are reliant on coal) and even dragged the evil San Francisco Chronicle into it for good measure. I used to like McCain but he's pretty embarrassing these days.

[AussieinUk]

It's the fact that the McCain/Palin ticket consistently offers no real plan for improving the public's lot that gets up my nose. Make no mistake: Obama and Biden are on the offensive also but they have been articulate enough to define their policies rather than constantly calling their opponents' characters into question. Only last week some McCain talking head made a fool of himself and the campaign by claiming Obama was friends with 'numerous' anti-semites only to falter when challenged on the point by the CNN anchor. 'Like who?' the anchor asked. He mumbled something incoherent initially, looking like a Polar Bear who had just spotted Sarah Palin. He could then only offer a weak, bumbling 'I think you know who we mean' by way of explanation. What morons.

McCain started harping on about coal yesterday, implying that Obama is part of a large anti-coal conspiracy (funnily enough the economies of southern Ohio, western Pennsylvania and West Virginia are reliant on coal) and even dragged the evil San Francisco Chronicle into it for good measure. I used to like McCain but he's pretty embarrassing these days.

Not detracting from what you have posted, but just adding to it - I would also put it down to the great organization and momentum that the Obama camp has carried through the entire campaign. Obama's camp has also created a driving enthusiasm that has been able to draw voters out in their droves. I think the number's stack up quite significantly, with Obama supporters being more than 65% enthusiastic to vote in his favor and McCain’s being less than 50%. This is damming to the Republican Party, on many levels..

Btw - I am surprised no-one has mentioned the 'Bradley effect'? Not that I think this will play a part in the actual voting, because IMV this theory has no real basis…

My invested interest in this campaign is not just that I think Obama will help economic confidence (globally) & in-turn market trending, but I also have has a nice little wager, that has been open for the last six months and I expect to collect on this as soon as the results are announced.

The pictures of Obama with the strreak of a tear gleaming on his otherwise strong and composed face picked up by the lights is iconic.

Very good point.. I saw a 'still' photo of this earlier today and iconic is just the word to describe it.

[Rovermatt]

There's a great picture on the BBC News page of US Senior Senator for New York Chuck Schumer (who is a Democrat and who serves with Hillary Clinton) in line at the polling station:

Click.

[Sandiway Blue]

Btw - I am surprised no-one has mentioned the 'Bradley effect'? Not that I think this will play a part in the actual voting, because IMV this theory has no real basis…

Funnily enough,it was suggested on sky news earlier today whether it would have any bearing on this election but i think now people are sensing the momentum being gathered on Obama`s part,and more importantly people are starting to believe that Obama really can make a difference.

Seems to be a very similar mood to when Blair took over in `97.

[RibbleValleyRover]

Seems to be a very similar mood to when Blair took over in `97.

Look what Blair achieved with his similar ‘change’ rhetoric...

To my dismay it looks like Obama will win it though I think it will be close and to the wire, contrary to what most of the polls have indicated or predicted.

[scotchrover]

I just Obama wins because Mrs Palin and her pet terror are planning to invade Iran if they get elected.

[yoda]

I just Obama wins because Mrs Palin and her pet terror are planning to invade Iran if they get elected.

Is that a fact?

[Grabbi Graeme]

Not sure if this has been mentioned on here but Mcain hasn't seem to have much public backing from George Bush, is it normal for a president not to get involved in his party's candidate or is it the fact that Bush is not the most popular and Mcain is better off without him.

[blue phil]

Excellent demolition of Palin McCain by the right wing Christopher Hitchens

The RIGHT WING Chris Hitchens !!??

Are you having a laugh , Philip ? The bloke's an ex commie , liberal luvvie ......(although , like yourself , he did have a moment of madness and gave his support to Bush's war in Iraq )

Maybe you are getting confused with his brother , Peter Hitchens , who is definitely to the right of most people and who , incidentally , didn't support the war in Iraq .

[Rovermatt]

The RIGHT WING Chris Hitchens !!??

Are you having a laugh , Philip ? The bloke's an ex commie , liberal luvvie ....

Are you serious? Hitchens is hardly a 'liberal luvvie'.

[yankrover]

Grabbi, it's a combination of Bush and McCain not liking each other and Bush being the most unpopular president in modern American history. Probably more of the latter.