[Archived] Paul's Progress

[tcj_jones]

Those statistics are misleading. For one, they aren't really that impressive, especially when compared to the teams around us in the table, and my main point of contention was that our defence was far from a strong point under Hughes. 'At the current rate' Ince's Rovers side will concede far more goals but, at the current rate, we will be relegated. There is no way that we will continue to concede like we are at the moment.

Furthermore, the playing philosophy of Hughes was very different to Ince's, especially in their respective first seasons in charge. Ince is trying to make a poor side play attractive football. Without a good / fit defensive midfielder, we are letting the opposition in more frequently and exposing the defence's glaring frailties more readily. Hughes's first move was to set us up to be extremely difficult to beat, signing Mokoena and Savage, the latter possibly our most consistent performer during the manager's tenure.

The defence had far superior players in front of it than it currently has now and one of the best defensive midfielders outside of the top four in Savage to protect it. Nelsen was immense when he first came to the club but, since his injury has been a shadow of his former self. This is a problem that has been bequeathed to Ince (although I must fault Ince for persisting to name him captain). The number of goals conceded should not be the only factor in determinging the strength of the defence. They were never especially good under Hughes, could never defend a set piece, corner or cross and have always made individual mistakes.

[briansol]

Ince has my full support. A lot of positive signs:

- Adapting tactcs after opponents (Mark Hughes take note)

- Dropping players out of form (Mark Hughes take note)

- Giving youngsters a chance (Mark Hughes take note)

- Attractive playing style (Mark Hughes take note)

- Bringing in quality players from lower divisions on the cheap (Jan take note)

- Telling the truth - "It's not a game for woman" (Jan take note).

[tony gale's mic]

Those statistics are misleading. For one, they aren't really that impressive, especially when compared to the teams around us in the table, and my main point of contention was that our defence was far from a strong point under Hughes. 'At the current rate' Ince's Rovers side will concede far more goals but, at the current rate, we will be relegated. There is no way that we will continue to concede like we are at the moment.

Furthermore, the playing philosophy of Hughes was very different to Ince's, especially in their respective first seasons in charge. Ince is trying to make a poor side play attractive football. Without a good / fit defensive midfielder, we are letting the opposition in more frequently and exposing the defence's glaring frailties more readily. Hughes's first move was to set us up to be extremely difficult to beat, signing Mokoena and Savage, the latter possibly our most consistent performer during the manager's tenure.

The defence had far superior players in front of it than it currently has now and one of the best defensive midfielders outside of the top four in Savage to protect it. Nelsen was immense when he first came to the club but, since his injury has been a shadow of his former self. This is a problem that has been bequeathed to Ince (although I must fault Ince for persisting to name him captain). The number of goals conceded should not be the only factor in determinging the strength of the defence. They were never especially good under Hughes, could never defend a set piece, corner or cross and have always made individual mistakes.

Last season our defensive record was reasonably impressive; we conceded less than Villa who were above us and the only side to concede less below us were Portsmouth, so we had the 7th best defensive record in the league. Currently we have the WORST defensive record in the league. That is some jump and so to complain that it was down to Ince inheriting Hughes' faults is utterly ludicrous. As are your next sentences. At the current rate we will concede far more goals, but at the current rate we won't be relegated seeing as we'd still make 40 points and we're still not in the relegation zone. Yet. Your belief that there's no way that we will continue to concede like we are is baseless...we have still to play the league's top scorers Chelsea twice and the errors are still popping up in every game. I agree the number of goals shouldnt be the only factor, but when there's such a noticeable difference in the goals against column then it has to point to a dodgy defence. Even without that, there's been much more frequent instances of bad defending this season.

Ince is trying to make a poor side play attractive football? Is this the same poor side that has consistently finished top 10 these last few seasons? Sure we lost Bentley but we had enough money and time for a replacement. Hughes played the football that was required to get the most out of the team at his disposal. It may not have been thrill a minute all the time, but it got results. Under Ince we play some nice build up play but we don't have the style of player running through our team to make this work.

[briansol]

It could be worse. We could have a manager who spent 70+ mill this summer, but still managed to lose 6 out of 11 games so far including drawing against 10 men Newcastle after being 1-0. Last 6 games, 1-1-4, that is relegation form!

[imy9]

Fans have a right to be cautious after the tenures of Hodgson & Kidd. I'm sure people were patient with them and came to regret it. If we just believe we're little old Blackburn who are lucky to punch above their weight, then the club will fall into mid-table mediocrity or worse. Like I said, Ince started out as if he wanted to really build on what Mark Hughes had done, but lately he's been playing us down at every opportunity.

I saw an interview after the Villa game where he said that Villa were a top 5 team and we are on their level, how is that down playing us at every opportunity?

If you want to check its on Rovers World

[imy9]

Sorry tcj, shaky, solid or simply middling, apart from Brad for Robbo the defensive personnel is the same as Hughes had plus Ince had a cheque book to work with, at least at the start of his time in charge. The only change he has made is bringing Simpson in on loan who bleats about playing for Man U every time a reporter goes near him.

The difference is quality of management and if Ince had not watched every Rovers game last season on VT in the ten days between appointment and the players arriving back for pre-season he needed shooting.

The difference is the quality of player that PI has now.

So when Big Ryan makes a mistake, that is down to the "quality of management"? Or is it that a player who was once an excellent defender is now ordinary.

Does the same work the other way? Dunn in his game vs Everton looked excellent, as does Warnock in CM, Emerton at right wing? Is that down to the management or is that something to do with the players?

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

I saw an interview after the Villa game where he said that Villa were a top 5 team and we are on their level

Would many fans agree with that?

[imy9]

Would many fans agree with that?

Either Ince is downplaying or over hyping, we cant have it both ways... can we?

When we outplayed a Villa side in 5th place and looked to be on their level, then is that an honest assessment? I think it is.

We are neither top 5 or bottom 5, but realistically somewhere in the middle. I will reserve judgement until I see a PI team, that may not happen for a season.

[philipl]

The points I am making are that:

Ince has exactly the same outsfield resources in defence that Hughes had

He had ten days before the start of pre-season training to watch every relevant video of his current charges so had no excuse for not being aware of strengths and weaknesses

And had a bigger cheque book than Hughes had had

So this defence is Ince's by choice, is pretty well the same as Hughes' and has gone from being middling to worst in the division. (Nobody seems to be pointing fingers at Robbo)

So, yes Ince is a wonderful Manager.

Happy now?

[imy9]

The points I am making are that:

Ince has exactly the same outsfield resources in defence that Hughes had- MINUS A WORLD CLASS KEEPER IN BRAD.

He had ten days before the start of pre-season training to watch every relevant video of his current charges so had no excuse for not being aware of strengths and weaknesses- WATCHING A VIDEO IS DIFFERENT TO WORKING WITH PLAYERS, HELL EVERY FAN ON HERE COULD BE A MANAGER IF THAT WAS THE CASE.

And had a bigger cheque book than Hughes had had- A BIT OF A FALLACY, HE HAS MONEY TO SPEND AND NOW GIVEN TIME I AM SURE IN JANUARY WE WILL SPEND MOST OF IT- REMEMBER THAT HUGHES HAD HIS NETWORK SET UP, IN FACT WILLIAMS MENTIONED HOW PLAYERS LIKE ANNAN HAD BEEN SCOUTED FOR OVER A YEAR- SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TO A MONTH...

So this defence is Ince's by choice, is pretty well the same as Hughes' and has gone from being middling to worst in the division. (Nobody seems to be pointing fingers at Robbo) INCE'S CHOICE IN THE SENSE THAT HE IS LUMPED WITH IT, I WILL BE INTERESTED TO SEE HOW MANY WILL BE HERE IN JANUARY- NO ONE IS POINTING FINGERS AT ROBBO AS HE HAS NOT BEEN AT FAULT.

So, yes Ince is a wonderful Manager. HE MAY BE, BUT MAYBE IF YOU LIVED IN THE CURRENT DAY RATHER THAN 1995 YOU MAY REALISE THAT LOSING TWO OF YOUR BEST PLAYERS AND INHERITING AN UNBALANCED SIDE SPELLS TROUBLE.

WHO IS OUR MOST CREATIVE PLAYER? A 38 YEAR OLD... DO WE HAVE AN ADEQUATE LEFT WINGER, RIGHT BACK (BEFORE SIMPSON), DM, CENTRE HALF? (MY MISTAKE WE RELEASED HENCHOZ IN THE SUMMER )

Happy now? NOT REALLY, I WANT US TO BE WINNING EVERY GAME BUT AM REALISTIC.

[92er]

When we outplayed a Villa side in 5th place and looked to be on their level, then is that an honest assessment? I think it is.

Nobody really made the point about our game against the being their 3rd in 7 days-it was our 2nd in 5 days. Some people have made comments that they looked tired, but should we not have done better against a team that had played that number of games in a week? It sounds to me that we were near to their level because they were under their normal level.

O'Neill might have been complimetary to us as PL managers tend to "build up" their colleagues.

[DP]

Steady on Paul, don't you realise your team has the same points as the mighty Man City managed by the faultless Mark Hughes. This isn't how it's meant to be... tut tut.

6 points separating the bottom 14 teams. Says it all really about the competitiveness of the Prem these days.

[gumboots]

The points I am making are that:

Ince has exactly the same outsfield resources in defence that Hughes had

He had ten days before the start of pre-season training to watch every relevant video of his current charges so had no excuse for not being aware of strengths and weaknesses

And had a bigger cheque book than Hughes had had

So this defence is Ince's by choice, is pretty well the same as Hughes' and has gone from being middling to worst in the division. (Nobody seems to be pointing fingers at Robbo)

So, yes Ince is a wonderful Manager.

Happy now?

You keep stating that Ince had a bigger chequebook than Hughes had i.e. more to spend but how do you know? He should have had more but we are not privy to how much the board was actually prepared to let him spend. Perhaps he could/should have spent more, but perhaps he couldn't. And if excellent defenders were that easy to find without spending the earth then everybody would be doing it. I think we perhaps underestimate the influence Friedel had on our defence, and that is in no way to put down Robinson who has played better than I personally expected in the games I have seen, but to have had one of the best premiership goalies behind you and then to have a guy who is still trying to build his own confidence behind you must have an impact on your confidence and your play. Our defence looked awful on lots of occasions last year and I think was quite often bailed out by wonder saves from Brad. I suspect Ince and the chairman are on the lookout for new and better defenders ready for the transfer window. Whether we get them is a different matter. there are a lot of factors involved in transfers besides the cash which is often the only angle you come at things from. I understand that in view of your profession and I don't want to criticise you for it. No doubt my profession often speaks through what I write too. Ince is not the finished article but look at managers who do have money to spend and still get it wrong. Look at established managers like Wenger who can't get his team to deal with Stoke when they looked like world beaters at Ewood a few weeks ago. Look at Liverpool losing to Spurs yesterday despite having all the play and having ended Chelsea's record at the Bridge. All I want is to see Ince getting bettera t his job and I think he is. It's slow progress but the fact that we have kept going to the end in our recent games shows that he is building a workethic in the players and that they do want to play for him.

[DP]

Careful Gumboots, Phil will start weilding his fantasy accounts in a minute. Either that or completely ignore your valid point.

[tcj_jones]

Last season our defensive record was reasonably impressive; we conceded less than Villa who were above us and the only side to concede less below us were Portsmouth, so we had the 7th best defensive record in the league. Currently we have the WORST defensive record in the league. That is some jump and so to complain that it was down to Ince inheriting Hughes' faults is utterly ludicrous. As are your next sentences. At the current rate we will concede far more goals, but at the current rate we won't be relegated seeing as we'd still make 40 points and we're still not in the relegation zone. Yet. Your belief that there's no way that we will continue to concede like we are is baseless...we have still to play the league's top scorers Chelsea twice and the errors are still popping up in every game. I agree the number of goals shouldnt be the only factor, but when there's such a noticeable difference in the goals against column then it has to point to a dodgy defence. Even without that, there's been much more frequent instances of bad defending this season.

Ince is trying to make a poor side play attractive football? Is this the same poor side that has consistently finished top 10 these last few seasons? Sure we lost Bentley but we had enough money and time for a replacement. Hughes played the football that was required to get the most out of the team at his disposal. It may not have been thrill a minute all the time, but it got results. Under Ince we play some nice build up play but we don't have the style of player running through our team to make this work.

First of all, a team that concedes 70 goals WILL be relegated. I use that figure because it is the one you put forward yourself. Currently we have the worst defensive record in the league - a massive jump, I agree - but, somehow, I doubt that will be the case come May. If it is, then fair enough. I have no statistics to back this up, but I'd say about 90% of the board would agree with me in saying that we are too good to go down. Ince will sort the defence over time and I think a new singing in January will make a big difference.

My argument is that the defence has been shaky over the last few seasons, but was playing behind a more defensive minded side and behind better players. Savage's presence in midfield is missed massively; Reid was in top form during Hughes's second season; Dunn is out again, but was quality last term; Bentley, obviously, is missed massively, Pedersen has declined badly, Tugay is another year older etc etc. Now Ince is trying to make a far inferior side play better attacking football. This is not in itself a bad thing, but it is exposing the defence's frailties. I don't feel that this assessment is wide of the mark. For example, how on earth can Ince prevent mistakes like Samba's against Villa when he gave Agbonlahor a head start from his own half?!

On Bentley, I have criticised Ince to the death. The decision not to replace him was hugely negligent, but we are criticising Ince on his failure to keep teh against column low.

[tcj_jones]

The difference is the quality of player that PI has now.

So when Big Ryan makes a mistake, that is down to the "quality of management"? Or is it that a player who was once an excellent defender is now ordinary.

Does the same work the other way? Dunn in his game vs Everton looked excellent, as does Warnock in CM, Emerton at right wing? Is that down to the management or is that something to do with the players?

EXCELLENT post imy9.

Jeez, I wouldn't even say that I am a fan of Ince. I am far from convinced, in fact. But let's have a balanced view of things, please.

[ABBEY]

That being said we need to be grittier under Ince and if we have to sacrifice some good football, then so be it, 3 points must come first at this stage of the season.

and when we said that were anti ince.

[den]

I have no statistics to back this up, but I'd say about 90% of the board would agree with me in saying that we are too good to go down.

I think you might be surprised tcj.

[imy9]

and when we said that were anti ince.

Now lets not revise history, shall we. You are the same individual are you not who has stated on the Chelsea preview and I quote:

"ROVERS TO WIN 9-0 AS WE HAVE NOT PAPERED OVER ANY CRACKS AND WE ARE CHAMPIONS LEAGUE"

Amongst many other things. If you read what I had written the comment you quote is only a portion of what I said, its called giving the bloke a chance but recognising what needs to be done, a balanced viewpoint on this messageboard

Oh did you manage to find a team that is missing SIX players that would walk into the first 11 who are currently in a higher league position than us?

[Tom]

What some of the Anti Ince brigade forget when they preach that we were 7th last season is that the teams around us have spent more money than our entire club is on sale for, we simply cannot compete like that, therefor when the dust settles a mid table finsh this season would be an excellent result.

Just look at the messiah over at Eastlands, how much has he spent and how well is he doing?

All in all I am happy with the football Ince plays and the way he seems to be approaching things but must admit i do have fears as no team is too good to go down.

[DingleBaiter]

Hmm, so - as with the Hull game - with the benefit of hindsight, our point at Bolton wasn't the disaster it was made out to be, based on the Messiah's side there today? People were moaning from the first game against Hoffenheim, and look at them now.

Is this the superhero we need?

Ince is adopting the same approach as Souness did in his first few months, in that he is taking a long mull over the players and still hasn't decided on his settled/ideal first 11. A point that can't be ignored is the continued disruption of St Mark and his disciples offering open invites to join them in his City revolution - and that's not just the obvious target BTW.

So how does Ince deal with this; more to the point, what about some suggestions from the more vociferous detractors about what to do? Plenty criticism around just now - some justified, some wishful thinking, some have their negativity amps set to 11, some pure mischief - but little in the way of firm plans. Is it more important to have a popular manager or an effective/successful manager? Seems some of the criticism of the latter is based on the former in Ince's case?

I'm sure there's a lot more to the arguments than just to simply hope for Ince to be sacked; however some of the arguments on here are short on solutions rather than repeating/creating problems that may (or may not) exist.

Then again, it could just be nerves and a lack of stomach for the fight in some cases? (fans not the team!)

TBH, looking back at the Prem games so far (on results only), set against the points I'd expected on a game-by-game basis, we're exactly equal. Not that I'm an expert predictor (far from it) just we've picked up and dropped points in different games. Everton (a), Fulham (h) were bonuses, whereas we didn't pick up at West Ham (a), Arsenal (h) or United (h). My criteria was based more on superstition/cynicism rather than on standards set by previous incumbents at Ewood, so I'm not overly worried just yet.

Ince has shown an ability to address certain things that needed sorting out on the pitch, but there's still lots to be resolved still, namely....

Pedersen & McCarthy's form/future

Where Villanueva will fit in (will he get disillusioned or is it all part of his long-term development)

Why Treacy's dropped back to his old habits

Warnock/Olsson debate

The centre-half positions looking unsettled

Plan B for a future without Roque

Inability to clear our lines defensively, coupled with a propensity to play ourselves into trouble (Villa, West Brom)

Converting midfield play into chances, and conversion rates

I'm sure the above will get addressed over the coming weeks, but the single biggest worry I have is there doesn't seem to be one overall plan, there still seems to a general naivety to the play. Is it because they feel they have a good spirit, particularly for the fight back? Or are they just playing the 'typical Rovers game' of making things hard for themselves?

It's all very well playing 'well' or 'attractive football' (all down to opinions seemingly), maybe we just need to bring back some of the agricultural stuff? Let's focus more on being hard to beat perhaps? Is it one clean sheet in the Prem season so far?

[Amo]

I saw an interview after the Villa game where he said that Villa were a top 5 team and we are on their level, how is that down playing us at every opportunity?

If you want to check its on Rovers World

Then he wants to make his mind up.

[T4E]

I have no statistics to back this up, but I'd say about 90% of the board would agree with me in saying that we are too good to go down.

Well I'm most certainly in the 10%. We are in no way too good to go down. The worst defence in the league so far, a lack of goals at home and an injury list as long as your arm.

I'm not sure myself, but I think one or two could argue that we had a better squad in '99.

[philipl]

Replying to 1586 - sorry but everyone of the points is highly contentious.

- Robinson is a more than fair swap for Brad and I've given Once credit for that but imy is obviously very unhappy by Ince's move there; that's his perogative.

- Hughes had a net spend of £7m in 2006 but overall his transfer spending was a net nil. I am absolutely absolutely certain that Ince had a transfer budget of AT LEAST £10m on his appointment as Manager

- Ince had plenty of time between the appointment and closure of the transfer window to assess the outfield defence; he chose to stick pretty well with the Hughes personnel and is getting much much worse performances from them.

Re tcj, we are NOT too good to go down.

Look around the division and tell me who isn't putting up a good fight to stay up or who is manifestly weaker as a squad. The relegation fight this season is going to be about character and at least 40 points. Next week-end could well see every club having at least as many points on the board than Derby accumulated all of last season.

If I were being dispassionate, I would have Rovers as one of the more at risk sides because of injuries, low scoring, uninspiring midfield and a deeply leaky defence plus a young manager who is clearly struggling. Elijah is spot on- Ince is vacilating all over the place.

[imy9]

Replying to 1586 - sorry but everyone of the points is highly contentious.

- Robinson is a more than fair swap for Brad and I've given Once credit for that but imy is obviously very unhappy by Ince's move there; that's his perogative. UMM I AM VERY HAPPY WITH ROBBO WHICH IS PLANNING FOR THE FUTURE BUT A GOALKEEPER TRYING TO BUILD HIS CONFIDENCE IS NOT BEING HELPED WITH A WOEFULLY INADEQUATE DEFENCE IN FRONT. WOULD YOU NOT AGREE THAT PLAYING AHEAD OF A NEW GOALKEEPER TAKES TIME? LOOK AT UNITED AFTER PETER LEFT.

- Hughes had a net spend of £7m in 2006 but overall his transfer spending was a net nil. I am absolutely absolutely certain that Ince had a transfer budget of AT LEAST £10m on his appointment as Manager BASED ON WHAT? I CAN PLUCK FIGURES OUT TOO, OUT OF INTEREST WHAT IS INCE'S NEW SPENDING THUS FAR?

- Ince had plenty of time between the appointment and closure of the transfer window to assess the outfield defence; he chose to stick pretty well with the Hughes personnel and is getting much much worse performances from them. ASSESS WHAT? PLAYERS IN PRE SEASON? I AM SURE INCE WAS TOLD BY FANS LIKE YOUR GOODSELF THAT THERE WAS NOTHING WRONG WITH OUR DEFENCE, HE STUCK TO THE DEFENCE BECAUSE IT IS MADNESS TO TRY TO RIP AN ENTIRE TEAM APART, CHARLTON TRIED THIS AND FAILED ABYSMALLY, ONCE THE PLAYERS HAVE HAD A CHANCE TO BED INTO THE TEAM, INTRODUCING A FEW MORE PLAYERS WILL NOT BE SO BAD.

Out of interest what is Hughes' net spend at City, they have conceded 18 goals (we are only 2 ahead) and they have lost SIX games to our FOUR.