[Archived] The George Bush Years

[philipl]

Robert Peston's comments (BBC Finance Editor):

"But there are a number of other huge trends here. Look. The moral authority, that America can lecture the world on the best way to run their economy, has been shot to pieces. And that will have a profound impact on, you know, the way countries run their economies, on the way that institutions like the IMF and the World Bank work, because basically, if you live in a developing economy, you're just going to say, 'We're not going to take any lessons from you!'"

"And then there's the vast indebtedness of countries such as the US and Britain, set against "all the wealth that has accumulated in China, in the Middle East, and Russia - that shifts the balance of financial power massively in their direction. I mean, if the Chinese got their act together, and they wanted to, they could actually, at this moment, buy the entire US banking system. They could just buy it. Which is an extraordinary thing - it's something that none of us could have predicted a few years ago."

[AussieinUk]

"...I mean, if the Chinese got their act together, and they wanted to, they could actually, at this moment, buy the entire US banking system. They could just buy it. Which is an extraordinary thing - it's something that none of us could have predicted a few years ago."

That’s actually not true... minority stakes in each, maybe. Foreign ownership caps are in place on certain US companies, banks are very much high on that list.

I do understand your point though (they have the physical money to theoretically purchase them), but it would never be sanctioned by US regulators (Antitrust commission, SEC etc etc). I think this would come under the banner of ‘in the national interest’.

On the flipside, China has the same foreign ownership caps on its owned banks.

[philipl]

That’s actually not true... minority stakes in each, maybe. Foreign ownership caps are in place on certain US companies, banks are very much high on that list.

I do understand your point though (they have the physical money to theoretically purchase them), but it would never be sanctioned by US regulators (Antitrust commission, SEC etc etc). I think this would come under the banner of ‘in the national interest’.

On the flipside, China has the same foreign ownership caps on its owned banks.

Robert Peston's point actually- I was quoting him.

And yes, China's foreign currency reserves are greater than current combined capital values of the entire quoted US banking sector; not just minority stakes but 100% of the whole shebang.

[AussieinUk]

Robert Peston's point actually- I was quoting him.

Honestly Phililp, wasn't slurring you.

[philipl]

No. I know.

Incidentally, the incoming Obama administration probably will be faced with the dilemma of non-US investors having a wall of dollars to place and the only attractive investments in the USA largely barred to them.

So they will either face the prospect of exporting jobs as that capital invests in foreign competitors to US companies or exporting ownership of US firms but receiving a desperately needed capital injection in the process

[AussieinUk]

Incidentally, the incoming Obama administration probably will be faced with the dilemma of non-US investors having a wall of dollars to place and the only attractive investments in the USA largely barred to them.

Quite ironic really..

So you think Obama is in the bag?

[philipl]

Quite ironic really..

So you think Obama is in the bag?

It is in neither camp's interest to say so but we are getting into the sort of territory that no winning President has ever reversed the opinion poll margins McCain is beginning to face within one month of election day. Gallup on Oct 1 to 3 shows Obama on 50% with an 8 point lead with a claimed margin of accuracy of 2%.

The tracker polls aglomerating all polls have moved to a 5 point lead but last week most polls moved to a 7 point Obama average so even if McCain recovers through his attack ads, the trackers are going to show a steady improvement for Obama all next week because of the lag effect of how they work.

The spinning has tried to show the first two debates tied but the reality is the opinion polls showed Obama winning the first debate by 12 points and Biden beating Palin 2 to 1.

McCain is going to have to go some in the debate on the economy on Tuesday. However, the 90 minute head-to-head will most likely give Obama the opportunity to nail the McCain lie that he has been peddling about tax increases and tie MCain to Bush on the economy. McCain turning a head-to-head into a referendum on Obama's fitness to lead by way of personal attack is a route fraught with danger and could easily explode in his face.

[Rovermatt]

The polls are all very well but as I understand it, there is a strong possibility that many people polled (especially in the southern states like Virginia and North Carolina where Obama leads) may change their minds in the voting booth, when faced with the prospect of voting for a black man.

[philipl]

The polls are all very well but as I understand it, there is a strong possibility that many people polled (especially in the southern states like Virginia and North Carolina where Obama leads) may change their minds in the voting booth, when faced with the prospect of voting for a black man.

Never been to the Carolinas but the parts of Virginia I have been to were pretty civilised.

Anyway, Obama could lose both those states and still have a winning margin of 100 in the Electoral College based on current voting intentions.

[Rovermatt]

Never been to the Carolinas but the parts of Virginia I have been to were pretty civilised.

Anyway, Obama could lose both those states and still have a winning margin of 100 in the Electoral College based on current voting intentions.

Yes indeed, I've been to Richmond and northern Virginia also - very civilised with large African-American community. I think the rest of the state is slightly backwards though. My brother lived there for a year and says there's a hell of a large 'bubba' population.

[neekoy]

[colin]

Me too. She's like me at my last job interview!

[Rovermatt]

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[dave birch]

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Shouldn't that be the VP ILW?

[philipl]

Former US base at Keflavik going to the Russians?

Can there be a starker example of how this crisis is weakening America than Russia bailing out Iceland and getting first dibs at the Keflavik airbase?

[philipl]

Bush's culpability in appointing senior people who could not do their jobs is neatly summed up by Anatole Kaletski in the Times:

Henry Paulson is to finance what Donald Rumsfeld was to military strategy, Dick Cheney to geopolitics and Michael Chertoff to flood defence

[philipl]

OK its the Guardian but again this article underlines how dramatically US standing is falling in the world. All eyes are on Paris at the moment desperately hoping the EU pulls the necessary deal out of the hat. Then it will be back to London and the £37bn re-capitalisation of British banks accompanied, I suspect, by the firing of the boards of RBS and HBoS.

By a quirk of the calendar, the Japanese and American markets are closed on Monday. Hopefully the EU agreement (if that is what it is) will be implemented immediately and the European markets will start to unjam and recover.

There is a wonderfully cruel line in that piece: "For the first time George Bush spoke about the crisis and the markets did not collapse. They were closed for the week-end."