[Archived] The Sunderland Preview Mark II

[Flopsy]

After the Carling Cup win on Wednesday (and until we get the preview up)

I'll put up the answers Jonathon Wilson gave me because I think you buggers all missed them last time due to some great topic editing by myself . He would also like to state how happy he is that Rovers have saved him the agony of watching Sunderland getting humped by Arsenal's creche in the next round

Buy his book please its excellent

I thought I would ask Jonathan Wilson, author of Behind the Curtain: Travels in Eastern European Football and Inverting the Pyramid: A History of Football Tactics (shortlisted for the William Hill Sports Book of the Year award), football correspondent of the Financial Times (yes that surprised me too), who covers football for the Sunday Telegraph, writes about Eastern European football for the Guardian, has a decent knowledge of South American football, and can be seen appearing on the very grey and very wide SportsXchange on Sky (Ch456), who is also a Sunderland fan. He has kindly taken time out from his hectic

jet-setting lifestyle (Sunderland/West Brom/ West Ham/Belgrade/Etc and

so forth) to answer some questions for the fan preview. So be gentle

1) Greetings Mr Wilson, how do you think Sunderland's season has

gone so far? And how do you see it panning out?

A stuttering start, a great high in beating Newcastle at home for the

first time in 28 years, and then three pretty lame performances in

losing to Stoke, Chelsea and Portsmouth. I guess in a normal season we

probably wouldn't be too worried, but the strangely compacted nature

of the league this year means we're in the relegation zone, and when

that happens panic can very easily set in (particularly at Sunderland

where the traumas of the 19-point and 15-point seasons remain close to

the surface). A lot of us had hoped that this year we might at last be

allowed a nice safe, dull mid-table end to the season. Maybe we still

will, but it's looking like a battle.

Had we beaten Portsmouth last week, we'd have been on exactly the

number of points I'd predicted for this stage of the season, (the win

at Spurs cancels out the home defeat to Man City, the draw against

Arsenal balances the defeat at Stoke), and given I expect to lose on

Saturday (Boxing Day 2001 aside, we have a shocking record against

you), it would only take a win on Saturday to get us back on track,

but the fear is there. Being really pessimistic, what happens if we go

down in the present financial climate having shelled out near enough

£70m on transfers over the past two seasons?

2) I know you saw the West Ham Rovers game earlier on this

season, and described the result as unfair, but the defending as a

joke, have you seen anything in Rovers recent play to alter your mind,

and how do you think we will do for the rest of the season?

That game was a nonsense. The defending was so bad they may as well

have just rolled dice for the result, and given the missed penalty and

the goal incorrectly ruled out for offside I can understand a sense of

grievance on the part of Rovers' fans. I haven't seen Rovers live

since, but I did watch the Chelsea game on TV on Sunday. Now clearly,

had it not been for four or five very good saves from Robinson, that

could have been a massacre, but Chelsea have a tendency to do that to

sides outside the top four, so maybe it's not fair to judge on that

game alone, and there was that 20-minute spell after half-time when

they looked like getting back into it. I'd be surprised if Rovers

really struggled this season, but I guess all depends on whether Santa

Cruz is fully committed, and how Paul Ince deals with the present

downturn. As Alex Ferguson always says, what's important isn't losing

games, it's how you respond to it: both Sunderland and Rovers have

some responding to do.

3) How do you think Roy Keane is doing at Sunderland, and do you

think that his past misdemeanours (Haaland for one) should be forgiven

and forgotten as long as he's successful?

The doubts are just beginning to set in, but so far he's done a great

job (maybe too good in that it's raised expectations). The club was

sinking under the gloom of the 15-point season, we'd lost four in a

row in the league, and we'd gone out of the League Cup to Bury (who

were bottom of League Two at the time and had a man sent off). Keane

arrives, and his charisma alone lifted us. Promotion, then survival;

what we need now is consolidation, but it looks like being another

scrap.

Past sins? Well, how long do we give somebody before we consider his

time served? The Haaland challenge is pretty hard to forgive,

admittedly, but Keane's big mistake was to allow it to be mentioned in

his autobiography (and there we have a classic case of the dangers of

ghost-writing: did he think that, or did Eamonn Dunphy think he

thought that?). Keane is, anyway, a far calmer figure now, drinking

green tea rather than booze, and it seems to me we should credit him

for sorting himself out, rather than continuing to harp on about the

same old offences.

4) Roy Keane was Paul Ince's successor at Man Utd, who do you

think will have the most successful managerial career?

Hard to say: they've both started exceptionally well in the lower

leagues, and seem to be talking time to adapt to the Premier League.

Keane would seem the more obviously charismatic, so maybe he just has

the edge. I hope so.

5) Who from Sunderland (other than Keane of course) should we

fear, and who should we pray that the manager plays?

Djibril Cisse has looked very lively and has scored four goals already

this season, and if Kenwyne Jones can get over his knee injury and

reproduce the form he showed last season, they could be a superb

partnership. Steed Malbranque has begun well, but has no left foot at

all, while Kieran Richardson could have scored a hatful if he could

only stop hitting the woodwork (mind, the important one went in).

Nobody's really had a shocker this season, although I'm increasingly

unconvinced Dwight Yorke can really cut it at the back of the midfield

(that said, he was very good against Newcastle). Phil Bardsley I would

maintain is better defensively than Pascal Chimbonda at right-back,

but the Chimbonda-Malbranque understanding is good. I'm not sure

George McCartney has really been at his best since he came back, and

both Danny Collins and Nyron Nosworthy are prone to howlers, but both

have been OK this season.

6) Apart from Santa Cruz is there anyone in the Rover's side that

causes you worry?

Jason Roberts is the sort of physical player who always seems to cause

us bother, but I'm more concerned by players I've had a pop at. I've

suggested in print that Morten Gamst Pedersen isn't quite living up to

his reputation, which I imagine is worth a couple of goals, and I

dropped Stephen Warnock from my fantasy team after that West Ham game,

so he's probably good for a couple of assists.

7) If you could tell Roy Keane to sign one player from around the

world, who would it be?

I think Leo Messi could do a job on the right for us, but more

realistically, I'm a huge fan of Anatoliy Tymoschuk. If Zenit fail to

qualify for the Champions League, he may be looking for an exit, and I

think his power and reading of the game at the back of the midfield

would be just the thing.

8) Villaneuva appears to be a rather decent signing, who needs a

bit of time to bed into the Premiership, is this a reasonable view or

have we signed a dud?

I like what I've seen – enough to have signed him for my fantasy team

before the season began. It's always hard for players like that in the

Premier League, but with him, Modric, Nasri, Deco, perhaps we're

seeing the return of the little man. Spain's victory in Euro 2008 with

Silva, Iniesta, Xavi and Fabregas hopefully persuaded people you can

win things with small players if they're good enough technically.

9) Looking at the table at the moment where two wins on the

bounce take you to UEFA cup places and two losses get you into the

relegation spots, does this show the overall excellence of the

Premiership or its slide to utter mediocrity below the top 5?

I'd suggest it shows both – the bottom end is better than before and

the top end is further away from the top four than ever. Maybe if

Spurs hadn't had such a poor start to the season it would be

different, but then, they always do mess it up somehow. Villa I think

look tired already, so while I expect them and Spurs to be fifth and

sixth, I suspect the gap to fourth by the end of the season could be

as much as 20 points. The interesting thing is the performance of the

promoted sides – West Brom about par, but Stoke and Hull both way

better than predicted. I suspect it's no coincidence that both are new

to the Premier League and so, without bad memories to weigh them down,

they have played with rather more belief than most promoted sides, and

have proved that discipline and organisation can still take you a long

way.

10) If you were in charge, what one thing would you introduce/remove

to improve football?

This is addressing something that's more of a problem abroad than here

(the African Cup of Nations in particular was plagued by it), but this

habit of players going down, pretending to be hurt, and forcing the

opposition to put the ball out so disrupting their attack, needs

addressing. I would institute a system whereby if the game has to be

stopped to allow medics on, the injured player must stay off the field

for a minimum of three minutes. If you can hobble over to the line by

yourself to get treatment, then come back on whenever. People might

say that advantages the side committing the foul, but it's a different

issue – if the foul is bad enough, the player will be cautioned

anyway; if the injury is that bad, it will take three minutes to put

right. Obviously if the injury is to the head or something obviously

serious, then the ref can stop play immediately, as he would now. I

might also limit sides to one sub after the 80th minute to stop what

are clearly time-wasting substitutions.

[ace]

The credit crunch and the recession must be worse than I feared..Previews are now being recycled.

( Still excellent though, thanks for the opportunity to read it again)

[Flopsy]

it's all about being green and doing your bit with recycling

[philipl]

Yes, a good read.

If we look at this from a Sunderland stand point, a win would be good but it looks like a huge "must not lose" for them. I guess Rovers can expect to have to work very hard to break them down and we could be looking at a pretty dire match if there isn't an early goal.

Of course I want a Rovers win but my gut feel says 1-1.

[den]

4500 tickets sold to date.

[1864roverite]

After the midweek game, Rovers revert to fulls trength and a 4-5-1 formation and promptly lose 1-0 having got Burnley at home in he cup quarter final

[imy9]

Rovers to win a scrappy game 2-1 with Roque grabbing both goals.

[RibbleValleyRover]

Going for a 1-1 draw. Whilst we got a much needed boost in midweek with the win, i expect Sunderland to come at us hard at the weekend as they need to start picking up points otherwise Keane will be really under pressure.

If we do get the three points i think it will be close with just one goal between us.

[Hughesy]

2-0 Roque & Villanueva to break his duck

[colin]

Recyled or not, still a good one.

Thanks Flopsy

[joey_big_nose]

Well we are rested so should be able to have some sort of impact. Interested to see what sort of team we will put out. Roque, Warnock, Robinson and Pedersen should all be shoo-ins but virtually every other place in the side is up for grabs. Of particular interest is right wing... will we persevere with Haworth or stick Derbyshire or even Judge out there? I expect McCarthy will make some sort of come back but maybe from the bench.

If I had to guess I would imagine the team will be this:

---------------------Roque

Pedersen-------------------------------Derbyshire

----------Warnock---------Andrews

--------------------Mokoena

---Olsson---Samba-------Zurab------Ooijer

--------------------Robinson

I think Ooijer needs to return to counter the aeriel threat at set plays. I hate Derbyshire on the right, but I am not sure Haworth did enough to keep his place and we just don't have any other options.

Others will strongly disagree but I think that is a decent enough team, if a little uninspiring. I think we will primarily be go for high balls out wide and looking for Andrews and Warnock to get beyond the striker and shoot from distance. Should we fail to open them up Tugay, Carlos and McCarthy could well come on in the second half.

[philipl]

Lawro alert! He has forecast us to win this one.

[AussieinUk]

Lawro alert! He has forecast us to win this one.

I'll have to agree with the Lawro in this one.. His predicitions overall this season, have been far more consistent than previous years.

Rovers to win 3-1.

[dingles staying down 4ever]

Well we are rested so should be able to have some sort of impact. Interested to see what sort of team we will put out. Roque, Warnock, Robinson and Pedersen should all be shoo-ins but virtually every other place in the side is up for grabs. Of particular interest is right wing... will we persevere with Haworth or stick Derbyshire or even Judge out there? I expect McCarthy will make some sort of come back but maybe from the bench.

If I had to guess I would imagine the team will be this:

---------------------Roque

Pedersen-------------------------------Derbyshire

----------Warnock---------Andrews

--------------------Mokoena

---Olsson---Samba-------Zurab------Ooijer

--------------------Robinson

I think Ooijer needs to return to counter the aeriel threat at set plays. I hate Derbyshire on the right, but I am not sure Haworth did enough to keep his place and we just don't have any other options.

Others will strongly disagree but I think that is a decent enough team, if a little uninspiring. I think we will primarily be go for high balls out wide and looking for Andrews and Warnock to get beyond the striker and shoot from distance. Should we fail to open them up Tugay, Carlos and McCarthy could well come on in the second half.

It does look a solid side but I can't see it creating many chances so I'd choose:-

Robinson

Simpson Zurab Samba/Nelson Olsson

Mokoena Tugay

Pedersen Carlos Warnock

Roque

I know Pedersen on the right was hardly deeemed a success last time but he plays there for norway and payed well against Scotland

[gumboots]

Problem is same as last year that Rovers seem to find it harder to play at home than they do away. teams come and play a counter -attcking game. we don't break them down early despite playing some decent stuff. they get a goal. we get edgy, fans and players, and either go on to concede more or just manage to nick an equaliser. this is not a new problem - we were doing exactly the same under Hughes last year. I don't think it's helped by the fact that most teams get the advantage of 50/50 decisions at home more often than not and we don't seem to (Could just be my perception but when do you remember a ref coming to Ewood and being a real homer?) We need to get not just an early goal but a couple of early goals to settle the nerves of crowd and players. I keep having the feeling that we are going to beat someone well soon but it doesn't happen. Would love it to be tomorrow.

[rover6]

Remember how satisfying it was to beat Boro in quick succession under Hughes (with Dickov and Kuqi making mince of a defender called Southgate)?

It'd be doubly great to do it to the brainless one and his band of merry beards.

[den]

Really looking forward to this one. I reckon Ince will go back to 4-4-2 and completely outplay the Mackems.

4-0 Rovers. 2 each for Rocky and Roberts.

[gumboots]

Really looking forward to this one. I reckon Ince will go back to 4-4-2 and completely outplay the Mackems.

4-0 Rovers. 2 each for Rocky and Roberts.

2 for roberts? Definitely been something in the water round here. People are having a burst of optimism.

[broadsword]

Been sniffing too much Copydex.

[Hughesy]

Id give Olsson a go on the left wing, he seems happy to get forward and isnt afraid of having a run.

---------------------Robbo---------------------

Simpson------Samba----Zurab-----Warnock

-------------------------------------------------

Judge---------Tugay-----Mokoena----Olsson

----------------Villanueva (Free role)--------

----------------SANTA CRUZ------------------

[Bobby G]

I cant see Samba replacing Nelsen, as he is club captain. And I hope Zurab continues but alongside Samba I think it would be the best combo too.

[trs]

Bit of panic going on in the north east

http://www.readytogo.net/smb/showthread.php?t=366579

[Blueandwhitemike]

Going by Ince's comments on Zurab, I think we'll be seeing Samba Nelsen again.

Hope Judge gets a go on the right, but I think he'll go with Derbs. Central midfield is interesting though, I expect Warnock will be there with Olson LB and Peds LM, but who will be the other CM?

[philipl]

Keane has not walked out on Mackems

[DingleBaiter]

Don't think Judge is in the squad for tomorrow, nor Howarth or Doran.

According to Ince's press conference today, Benedict wanted to play Weds night but PI told him on Tue to go back SA to be with his Dad.