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[Archived] Fa Cup

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chocky Uefa Europa League

chocky

Posted
Posted

Christ, have we become so pessimistic that we think we can't win ought..Like Roversmum says we have beaten them before and can do it again..It's trophies like the F.A. cup that we have to aim to win...If the sum total of our existance is just staying in the Premier league no wonder the gates are down... :angry::angry:

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Stuart World Cup

Stuart

Posted
Posted
Christ, have we become so pessimistic that we think we can't win ought..Like Roversmum says we have beaten them before and can do it again..It's trophies like the F.A. cup that we have to aim to win...If the sum total of our existance is just staying in the Premier league no wonder the gates are down... :angry::angry:

Sadly, staying in the PL does a lot more for our existence than winning the FA Cup. I'd love to see us have a good cup run and finish 17th but I fear we may have to make a sacrifice. I'm sure once Hiddink has been here a couple more weeks, he will have Chelsea ticking again so for me it needs to be a weakened team in the replay and 'ce sera sera'. We simply can't afford any more injuries.

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The Harwood Yankee Premier League

The Harwood Yankee

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Posted

The so-called Big 3 kept apart - how blatant does it have to be?! Chelsea at home is the lesser of the 3 evils and gives us a glimmer of a chance, but if we have to face either Arsenal or ManU at some point on the way then it all counts for nothing. That's if we get past Coventry of course!

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jonv Premier League

jonv

Posted
Posted

do you really think, that over all the years, with all the guests they get on to draw the balls, that not one person has not slipped up in stating that its fixed?

Blyth Spartans v Blackburn Rovers. Yep definite fixing allegations in that one :P

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joey_big_nose World Cup

joey_big_nose

Posted
Posted
I don't see what maths has to do with it.

The only way it could be fixed is by the long suspected method of heating the big team's balls. Hot with cold etc.

I await your reply with eager anticipation.

The way to figure it out would be to take the last 10 years, say, of draws and figure out the proportion of times that the "big four" teams are drawn against each other each season. (Man Utd, Chelsea, Liverpool and Arsenal if you go back to 2002; Man Utd, Arsenal, Newcastle and Liverpool before 2002). Compare that to the absolute chances of them being drawn against each other.

WOuld require an hour or two of work in a spreadsheet. Not sue if I am bored or angry enough to do that! It will be quite messy as the probabailities will change massively depending on the round and how many of the "big four" are left in each round. But you will be abe to figure out what "should" take place.

Could be done.

I would be suprised if the actual number of times the big guns are drawn against each other is substantially lower than that predicted by probability.

Also the couple of lower league teams (Millwall, Cardiff) that have reached the final in recent years suggestst that it is not a fix.

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philipl World Cup

philipl

Posted
Posted

I got yahbooed at when I gave the cumulative odds for Rovers being drawn against Burnley saying that we were just about getting into evens territory that we would have been drawn against them at some point this season given the addition of all the individual odds for the number of times both Rovers and Burnley have been in the same draw.

I haven't looked at it in detail now but I guess the lack of draws thus far this season in both competitions pairing any two from Man U, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea (especially for this 6th round) is now less than 50% probability but nowhere near as unlikely as for example

Rovers drawing Sunderland twice in the same season

or

Rovers drawing Coventry in two successive FA Cup competitions.

Quite correctly, it has been pointed out that in a random draw what has happened in the past has no bearing on the probability of an event happening in the next draw of a ball and I did actually explain that at the time for the trigger happy folks who screamed rubbish at me.

So in this 6th round draw taken in isolation, it was actually odds on that in the four games, Man U, Liverpool and Chelsea would avoid each other which is what of course happened.

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joey_big_nose World Cup

joey_big_nose

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Posted

The thing about fixing is that if you could really show that the chances over the last ten seasons or so of the big teams drawing each other is really a lot less than probablities dictate it would be a massive news story. One paper or website at least would run with it. You would sell a tower of copy!

I find it a bit hard to believe no one has looked into it. I would imagine some have and been disappointed with the figures.

Plus like others have said it would only take one of the guests who draw the balls, or one of whoever was involved in sorting it out (all the heating and so forth would require the involvement of quite a few I'm sure), to blab and bundles of people would be sackedwithout severance from the FA and permanently disgraced.

Seems quite far fetched. But I guess not totally impossible.

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tony gale's mic World Cup

tony gale's mic

Posted
Posted
I don't see what maths has to do with it.

The only way it could be fixed is by the long suspected method of heating the big team's balls. Hot with cold etc.

I await your reply with eager anticipation.

Maths and probability has everything to do with it.

Lets see the last few years semis (not including last year since no big teams were in):

Watford vs Man U

Rovers vs Chelsea

Chelsea vs Liverpool

Boro vs West Ham

Arsenal vs Rovers

Newcastle vs Man U

Arsenal vs Man U

Sunderland vs Millwall

So thats 2 times where the big teams have been drawn apart, and two times where theyve been drawn together.

Yep, looks like a real fix to me...

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