[Archived] Relegation Watch

[brfcs5359]

This years like musical chairs, or musical whose stood on the trap door when the music stops!

I posted this on the 21st January

I think we need to just concentrate on the next game. There are 8 or 9 clubs at least poorer than us so if we just do the basics right we will stay up.

Runners and Riders

Portsmouth - Since drawing at Villa mid October they are on a horrible run which has been easy fixtures against teams in the bottom half plus Arsenal. The big teams are up next. Goal difference one of the worst. Club in financial crises and a manager who has only proved previoulsy he can go backwards. 2 wins in 13, Rovers home luckily and Sunderland away. Relegated

West Brom - Tightened up the defence and are turning territorial advantage in to goals. reinforcements up front should give them enough fire power to pick up points regularly at home and some surprise points n the road. Three consecutive home wins plus unlucky loses at Chelsea and Villa. Safe

Hull - have they enough points? No! 13 League games without a win and a terrible goal difference. An easy run of fixtures now for 2 months starting away to West Ham and home to West Brom. Relegated

Man City - Big signings and intermittent results. Stumble to safety well before the last game. Great goal difference. Safe

West Ham - In real trouble off the pitch. Can they hold onto players AND keep them fit. Hull next up then 5 exceedingly tough fixtures. 29 points already plus 4 wins should see them safe. Safe

Sunderland - Poor goal difference and a batch of really tough games with just Stoke in the middle of them right up to the end of March. Can't see many points and they are going to have dig deep to avoid falling into the bottom 3 in the coming weeks borderline

Spurs - Just 2 wins in 9, Carling and UEFA Cup fixtures piling up on a small depleted and uninterested squad. The next 9 fixtures are against 4 of the top 5 and 5 poor clubs. Those 5 fixtures as Arry said tonight will need Tottenham at their best or they are going down - Could be relegated

Newcastle - Ditto Spuds. Poor Goal Difference. Lack heart and battle. Off filed problems. Fans dragging them down. Big clubs and relegation clubs coming up for them over the next 10 games. No signings. Poor management. Could easily be relegated

Middlesbrough - 10 without a win losing to all their rivals. Easy fixture list with only Chelsea and Liverpool out of the top 7 before the end of April. Make or break. Could easily go down.

Stoke - 1 win in 11 - 8 without a win. Terrible goal difference. Just played all the top teams though. Virtually all the next 10 fixtures are against relegation rivals. lack of firepower. Give away to many goals. 50% of goals scored from Rory Delap. Probably go down

Bolton - sucked back in to it on 23 points (2 above safety) and a poor goal difference. I win 8 but of those 8, 5 were against the top 5 clubs. The fixture list easys up for them and they are into a run of consecutive relegation battles. Tough battling squad. Safe

Rovers - 5 without defeat, just 2 goals conceded against Man City sloppily. New faces and injuries clearing up under reinvigorated management. Top 7 team last year returning to form. Next 11 fixtures, 6 are against the top teams right at the top and 5 against weaker opposition. Not enough points on the board to carry a bad run. Should pull clear

[brfcs5359]

Latest odds February 1st

http://www.oddschecker.com/football/englis...ship/relegation

West Brom 4/9

Stoke 4/7

Middlesboro 15/8

Portsmouth 5/2

Newcastle 2

Hull City 11/4

Blackburn 9/2

Sunderland 11/2

Bolton 5

Tottenham 15/2

Fulham 10

West Ham 16

Man City 28

Wigan 25

I think Portsmouth are a great bet at 5/2. West Brom and Stoke have as much chance as Newcastle, big name big support is skewing the market. Hull a good bet at 11/4 too.

I reckon

Wigan

West Ham

Man City

Bolton

Fulham

Blackburn

Spuds

Sunderland

West Brom

Newcastle

Middlesbrough

--------------

Stoke

Hull

Portsmouth

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

It's a time for cool heads now, our position could get worse before it gets better. I've faith in Sam and confidence that he'll get us out of the mess were in at present. I'm surprised at the fact we don't seem to be strengthening in centre midfield, if I thought we would have to continue to play the likes of Andrews regularly until the end of the season I'd be seriously worried.

I just wish the directors would have had the balls to sack Ince after the Sunderland game, that would have given us the best part of a month more to turn it around, that could be the difference at the end.

[Jan]

It's a time for cool heads now, our position could get worse before it gets better. I've faith in Sam and confidence that he'll get us out of the mess were in at present. I'm surprised at the fact we don't seem to be strengthening in centre midfield, if I thought we would have to continue to play the likes of Andrews regularly until the end of the season I'd be seriously worried.

I just wish the directors would have had the balls to sack Ince after the Sunderland game, that would have given us the best part of a month more to turn it around, that could be the difference at the end.

And if they'd had the balls to sack him after the press conference, as I wanted, NONE of this would have happened.

[PAFELL]

It's a time for cool heads now, our position could get worse before it gets better. I've faith in Sam and confidence that he'll get us out of the mess were in at present. I'm surprised at the fact we don't seem to be strengthening in centre midfield, if I thought we would have to continue to play the likes of Andrews regularly until the end of the season I'd be seriously worried.

I just wish the directors would have had the balls to sack Ince after the Sunderland game, that would have given us the best part of a month more to turn it around, that could be the difference at the end.

If Newcastle lose by more than 2 goals today they will replace Rovers in the bottom three.

[DeadlyDirk]

I think our savious this year will be the fact that other teams are so poor at the moment. Pundits were talking last week about how it could be more than 40 points to keep you up this year, at this rate Portsmouth and Newcastle will be lucky if they get to 30.

Newcastle: Going Down

Newcastle players just look completley uninterested at the moment, I expect whatever honeymoon period JFK had when he took over is now over and the players are probably wondering why he's in charge. Newcstle have lost Owen reportedly for 6 weeks which is a massive blow, they already have Martins and Viduka out. Barton is arguably their best midfielder, he's now out for 2 to 3 months. Shay Given is off to City it seems who is obviously their best keeper. If they get Collocini injured today they'll have done very well!

I think the bottom line for them this year is that in the past they have constantly under achieved, largely due to tactical complacency and poor defending, this year I don't think they are underachieving, they are just not good enough and its showing through.

Portsmouth Going Down

Portsmouth for me are the other ones in freefall, what were they thinking in appointing Adams? He was terrible at Wycombe and I don't see what he has done to change that except do what Harry told him. At least PAul Ince had success lower down the leagues, Adams didn't even have that on his CV, very odd for me.

They've lost Defoe and Diarra who similiarly to Newcastle are their best midfielder and striker, see the pattern here? I think I heard they have something like 2 points out of 24 which let's be honest is ummm rather bad! The difference between them and Newcastle is I think a half decent manager could keep them up if they act now, James, Distin, G. Johnson, Krancjar, Crouch, still some quality there, I just think Adams is clueless.

I am hoping and praying that Adams is in charge from now until the end of the season, it could keep us up!

Other Candidates:

West Ham Up

They've hit form at the right time and the best news about the signing of Savio is it suggests that they don't need to sell anyone else before the window!

Hull Up

They've been shocking lately but performance wise have been okay, I expect sooner or later for them to get a win from somewhere and then probably get back to back wins knowing them.

Middlesborough Major Contender

They will be close this year, something isn't quite going right for them, they were shocking against us and were lucky to escape with a draw, not scoring many goals either. Think they'll just scrape enough to stay up.

WiganUp

I never liked the man but you cannot fail to give credit to Steve Bruce, brought a couple of unknown midfielders to the club for a million or so, they played well and got them enough points to stay up then he sold one on for £15 million with the other expected to follow shortly. Got 3.5m for Heskey who has 6 months on his contract. Worked well on a low budget and sold players on for massive profits and actually stopped moaning a lot as well and got on with things. He'll need to spend the money wisely but they'll definitely be here next season, the likes of Zaki, Scharner, Kirkland still means they have a decent making of a team.

Stoke Just going down?

As the opening poster said, Stoke rely on Rory Delap for goals which tells you its own story, they are a team who play ugly football who pretty much lack anyone with technical ability, I think its dissappointing they didn't look to add some adventure to their team like Hull did with Geovanni. The only thing that might save them is someone else being terrible and Beattie getting the goals, will the Beat go on? I'm tipping them to be 18th but there will be others very close.

West Brom Up just

Well other when they play the likes of Man Utd they are not getting hammered, they may be bottom but I fancy them to just stay up, I hope they do in a way (Not at the expense of us though) because at least they go the right way about playing their football.

Bolton Up

Megson may not be popular with the fans but at least he has them picking up points and with a decent defensive record, it'll be enough to keep them up. They'll probably move him on in the summer at the demand of the fans only to go down next year under some fancy Dan! Here's hoping.

Man City Up

Oher than City fans is there a football fan in the country who wouldn't love to see them go down? They'll stay up though unfortunately, no team spirit or organisation but enough quality on the pitch to pick up more results than the likes of Newcastle etc. Plus they'll probably fly in a big name tomorrow, Roque or not.

Spuds Up? Down? Up? Down? Up.... Just

Oh how I love seeing Spuds struggle, especially with Harry in charge. A few weeks ago I thought they would pull themselves out of it, Harry would get them organised and at least hard to beat. At the moment they are still a shambles, they always look to be giving you goals which obviously is always going to give the opposition a chance. Harrys tough methods of criticising the players in public and saying they are not giving enough, may go down etc doesn't seem to be working on some of the pretty boys. They genuinely could go down and I don't think that's just wishful thinking now. They are not picking up points against poor teams and they have like graham says 4 of the top 5 coming up soon. Spuds are definitely the ones to watch and may just beat Stoke to the drop.

Sunderland Up

Winning today, picking up a few points here and there. The fans and players seem to be behind Spragia which can't be said for 5 or 6 of the teams down there who either have a manager the fans don't like or the players don't like. Cisse is getting goals and Jones is always a handful, will be enough to keep them up.

Rovers Up

Well I'm hardly going to tip us for the drop am I? It's going to be close between all the teams, but at least now were hard to beat and hard to score against, (First halfs against Bolton aside.) If we start taking our chances we should be okay, the only slightly worrying thing is we haven't beaten teams we should of done when we've had the chance by either missing golden chances or giving them head starts, we can't afford to do that against the good teams. It'll probably be vital that against the likes of Villa, Man Utd, Liverpool, Chelsea and all the other hard games that we pick up a couple of draws at least, idealy snatch a win at one of them!

[philipl]

Other than Pompey in free fall on the pitch and off it, the relegation battle is all but impossible to call.

Of the clubs at the bottom who played yesterday and today, Pompey, Spurs and City were the worst performers and had least fight in them.

[DavidMailsTightPerm]

It's a time for cool heads now, our position could get worse before it gets better. I've faith in Sam and confidence that he'll get us out of the mess were in at present. I'm surprised at the fact we don't seem to be strengthening in centre midfield, if I thought we would have to continue to play the likes of Andrews regularly until the end of the season I'd be seriously worried.

I just wish the directors would have had the balls to sack Ince after the Sunderland game, that would have given us the best part of a month more to turn it around, that could be the difference at the end.

Though it pains me to say it - why strengthen midfield when the ball continually sails over it ?

Personally I agree with you - but maybe he is thinking Givet to left back Warnock to centre in an emergency ?

[RevidgeBlue]

It seems increasingly likely that Adams will be potted fairly quickly, if Pompey get someone in who gives them a temporary "new manager bounce" it's pretty impossible to call who'll go down.

Just about everyone seems capable of pulling out the occasional three points, we seem less able to do that than most. What if we've had our honeymoon period already?

The two teams with the least fight seem to be the two squads with by far the most talent. Spuds and Citeh. I'd have thought that would balance itself out and both of those will have enough to just about stay up.

I'd luv it just luv it, if the much vaunted 'arry took Spuds down though.

[waggy]

6 league games under lardarse have produced 10 pts,all against teams around us.to me it's not enough we will be very lucky to get a point a game in our next 7 games.relagation is very much a possibility

[LeftWinger]

6/1 (Ladbrokes) on Rovers being relegated is seriously tempting. It's like a relegation insurance. If I put £40 on it now, I'm delighted if we stay up, but if we go down at least my season ticket for the Championship is paid for.

[jim mk2]

6 league games under lardarse have produced 10 pts,all against teams around us.to me it's not enough we will be very lucky to get a point a game in our next 7 games.relagation is very much a possibility

I agree it is only 50-50 whether we stay up but I wouldn't blame Allardyce for the loss of points (except for the substitions v Man City) : point the finger at his inept predecessor and the man who appointed him and failed to realise his error sooner.

[MarkBRFC]

I think we'll see a different bottom 3 every week untill the end of the season to be honest.

Too difficult to call who's going down now.

[waggy]

I agree it is only 50-50 whether we stay up but I wouldn't blame Allardyce for the loss of points (except for the substitions v Man City) : point the finger at his inept predecessor and the man who appointed him and failed to realise his error sooner.

i will point it at lardarse he has had more than enough games to see the squad is not good enough,not signed enough players and happy to keep unhappy players at ewood

[jim mk2]

i will point it at lardarse he has had more than enough games to see the squad is not good enough,not signed enough players and happy to keep unhappy players at ewood

Perhaps he's finding what Hughes knows : the Jersey boys are screwing every last penny out of the club and refusing to invest.

[waggy]

Perhaps he's finding what Hughes knows : the Jersey boys are screwing every last penny out of the club and refusing to invest.

very true jim just waiting for 4.55pm

[LeChuck]

Portsmouth, West Brom and Stoke for me.

I think Newcastle will sack Kinnear at some point and the new manager will prove just enough to keep them up.

[rebelmswar]

Portsmouth, West Brom and Stoke for me.

I think Newcastle will sack Kinnear at some point and the new manager will prove just enough to keep them up.

If this happens it must be some sort of record for managerial changes.

[American]

I agree it is only 50-50 whether we stay up but I wouldn't blame Allardyce for the loss of points (except for the substitions v Man City) : point the finger at his inept predecessor and the man who appointed him and failed to realise his error sooner.

Would have agreed if we actually bought more than a backup defender and an overrated utility man this window.

[waggy]

when championship clubs are spending more than us in the jan window our chance off survival is linited,jw is playing a dangerous game

[Dan Furness]

when championship clubs are spending more than us in the jan window our chance off survival is linited,jw is playing a dangerous game

You do spout some crap on here sometimes.

It certainly WASNT for lack of effort that they never spent anything, the scouts were all over Europe continuously for weeks watching particular targets (and this is 100% true) and they must not have felt they were any improvement in the end.

Granted I think we should have got another CM but looking at the players in the markets there was no real big movers, half the players who moved to the likes of Pompey are unheard of in my eyes

[dellinsert]

when championship clubs are spending more than us in the jan window our chance off survival is linited,jw is playing a dangerous game

And why the emoticons?

[waggy]

You do spout some crap on here sometimes.

It certainly WASNT for lack of effort that they never spent anything, the scouts were all over Europe continuously for weeks watching particular targets (and this is 100% true) and they must not have felt they were any improvement in the end.

Granted I think we should have got another CM but looking at the players in the markets there was no real big movers, half the players who moved to the likes of Pompey are unheard of in my eyes

i spout crap then you say we need a cm,

[Dan Furness]

i spout crap then you say we need a cm,

I said I agree we need a CM but your constantly moaning - why bother going?

[SoccerHQ]

Surprised people think Stoke will go down.

Their home form and performances at the Britannia have been magnificent and their remaining seven games at home are Pompey, Bolton, Boro, you lot, Newcastle, West Ham and Wigan so five wins imo from that and they're safe.

You will be fine as again your hoem run in looks quite good to me.

I think the bottom 3 at the end will be Boro, Newcastle and West Brom.

Boro just don't look like scoring enough goals and have a tough run in and Newcastle's run in is the worst of the lot, don't win away and still have to play Manure, Chelsea, Arsenal and Everton at St James so for a club needing at least 5 wins to be safe, that's a huge ask imo.