[Archived] Relegation Watch

[philipl]

Just run the predictor and again had Rovers finishing in the top half with a ridiculously low points total of 45.

18th on 38 points and goal difference.

Back to the real world and this week-end's injuries in other clubs have been kind to Rovers.

We will face Everton without Arteta and in all probability Anichebe as well. Don't know if Cahill will be back.

Newcastle have lost Owen to the end of March plus the Nolan three match ban.

Boro are going to be without Digaard for at least ten weeks.

West Brom lost four to injury but I don't know how bad they are.

[Anti-Dingle-Brigade]

Man U was a turning point. Starting tonight, we need to go on a run and haul our way out of this.

COYB.

[DE.]

  CAPT KAYOS said:

But thought you where confident we would stay up -are these not one of the teams 'worse ' than us as you put it.

According to your book its a win game - but we have another 'if'.

I am confident we're staying up at this point in time, but that confidence will drain quickly if we're not able to beat a Hull team in freefall. Our previous games give every indication we can pull ourselves out of the drop should we continue to put in the effort, but a defeat at Hull would be a disaster and change my view.

There was no need for you to highlight that post and add condescending remarks. Move on.

[jim mk2]

  philipl said:

Playing well and with positive momentum, not something you can say about Hull.

Good to see Rovers maintaining their "positive momentum" tonight.

Hull will beat us on Sunday.

[DeadlyDirk]

I've tried to be positive all season but I am a little worried now as other teams have started to break a way to an extent. Hopefully we can come good, the thing on our side is we still have some very winnable games coming up, the problem though is we've also had a lot of winnable games behind us that we've only managed to draw.

I know it should be obvious to me but it wasn't until I've just looked at our fixtures and saw our list of results as well that I've seen just how much we've struggled to win games.

So far we have only managed to win league games against Everton, Fulham, Newcastle twice and Stoke. It's still in our hands and we can certainly get out of it but there is no question that only being able to win those games is relegation form! The away win's against Everton and Newcastle are really the only results which stand out as getting more out of them that we would have perhaps expected.

People have questioned whether or not 40 points will be enough this year, I think it could be close, I'm hoping West Brom start to fade now so at least there is only 2 spots to fall into. I'd love to see them go down but Spuds look like they will do enough to stay up, by hook or by crook. With 12 games to go I'd expect anyone with 30 points to scrape just over 40 points which should see them stay up. That leaves us, Boro, Stoke, Portsmouth, Newcastle and Hull, assuming West Brom fade away.

The game on the weekend we could really do with picking up some points, losing wouldn't mean the end for us but I think it would mean Hull are probably safe. Boro are struggling and need to pick up some form in the next couple of games or it could see them doomed. Which would leave ourselves, Newcastle, Stoke and Pompey battling it out for the final place (If Hull get a win on the weekend.). Stoke are looking pretty poor at the moment and Portsmouth and Newcastle are probably in about the same situation as us. Hopefully it'll be a case of Boro and Stoke being so bad that they go down and hopefully not come down to us scrapping for results on the final day or so.

All in all though as long as we don't need more than 6 points over the final 3 games it still won't be panic stations as Portsmouth and West Brom at home will be some very winnable games, like I said though, hope it doesn't go down that far!

[SoccerHQ]

As I've said before Rovers to me have enough to be safe, simply by just looking at the home games.

You have Everton who are going to miss Arteta big time and anyway you've already beaten them twice this season under Ince Then you have Spurs who are @#/? away from home generally and don't like the North (always lose up at Bolton). After that you have West Ham and Wigan in quick succession both of whom should be on 40 points by then so safe in midtable and not really bothered. After that you've got Pompey who are still weak away from home.

From those 5 home games, I see no reason why you can't win 4 of those which would get you into the mid 30s points range. You're then looking at picking up an away win and a couple of draws from somewhere so 4 points from Stoke, Fulham, Hull, Man. City (where you have a very good record) and I can see you nicking a draw at the Emirates.

That would get you to 40 points. Now say things don't go to plan and you're a bit short of that target going into the final day, you have the great insurance of a final day home game against West Brom who lets be honest are @#/? and will be relegated long before then so that's a shoe in 3 points if ever I saw them.

West Brom have had it and I reckon Boro are pretty much at that stage as they don't have any goals in there team. Of the others Pompey look to have stabalised, Stoke like Rovers will rely much on their home form to stay up, Hull are the team in freefall, Spurs look o.k now and still a big chance Newcastle will go down imo as they arguably have the hardest run in of the lot.

Easy for me to say it looking in from the outside as a Villa fan but good luck anyway as Blackburn is always a great away trip (well in recent years!)

[gumboots]

  SoccerHQ said:

As I've said before Rovers to me have enough to be safe, simply by just looking at the home games.

You have Everton who are going to miss Arteta big time and anyway you've already beaten them twice this season under Ince Then you have Spurs who are @#/? away from home generally and don't like the North (always lose up at Bolton). After that you have West Ham and Wigan in quick succession both of whom should be on 40 points by then so safe in midtable and not really bothered. After that you've got Pompey who are still weak away from home.

From those 5 home games, I see no reason why you can't win 4 of those which would get you into the mid 30s points range. You're then looking at picking up an away win and a couple of draws from somewhere so 4 points from Stoke, Fulham, Hull, Man. City (where you have a very good record) and I can see you nicking a draw at the Emirates.

That would get you to 40 points. Now say things don't go to plan and you're a bit short of that target going into the final day, you have the great insurance of a final day home game against West Brom who lets be honest are @#/? and will be relegated long before then so that's a shoe in 3 points if ever I saw them.

West Brom have had it and I reckon Boro are pretty much at that stage as they don't have any goals in there team. Of the others Pompey look to have stabalised, Stoke like Rovers will rely much on their home form to stay up, Hull are the team in freefall, Spurs look o.k now and still a big chance Newcastle will go down imo as they arguably have the hardest run in of the lot.

Easy for me to say it looking in from the outside as a Villa fan but good luck anyway as Blackburn is always a great away trip (well in recent years!)

NO games a shoe in 3 points as far as Rovers are concerned especially against teams who are already relegated. we all remember the game against Forest

[Neil Weaver]

Thanks for the views Mr HQ, always interesting to get an outside perspective. But you'll understand things look a bit different from here, fingernails are being bitten!

[roversmum]

The final match against Birmingham last season springs to mind...

Thanks for your kind words, SHQ, but very nervous times round here!

[brfcs5359]

  philipl said:

Three words- Jason Roberts misses.

Why what's she done wrong?

[Paul Mellelieu]

I think there are two -related - issues which concern me more than anything. Firstly the seemingly lack of fight by the players, and secondly, the terrible match-day atmosphere at Ewood.

It seems that all the clubs around us, with perhaps the exception of 'Boro are showing more determination on the pitch. And too often, at home, we feel like the away side, with thousands of away fans, and the home support sitting on its hands. This has been the case for some time now, stretching into last season, and certainly evident under Ince. Even Allardyce seems unable to inject some fight into half the first team: the three forwards, Dunn, and others look disengaged.

It's difficult not to conclude that both the players, and the town, will quietly slide into the Championship.

[gumboots]

  Paul Mellelieu said:

I think there are two -related - issues which concern me more than anything. Firstly the seemingly lack of fight by the players, and secondly, the terrible match-day atmosphere at Ewood.

It seems that all the clubs around us, with perhaps the exception of 'Boro are showing more determination on the pitch. And too often, at home, we feel like the away side, with thousands of away fans, and the home support sitting on its hands. This has been the case for some time now, stretching into last season, and certainly evident under Ince. Even Allardyce seems unable to inject some fight into half the first team: the three forwards, Dunn, and others look disengaged.

It's difficult not to conclude that both the players, and the town, will quietly slide into the Championship.

The problem is it's hard to know which comes first - atmosphere or the players giving us something to cheer. we've proved against Liverpool that we don't need results to get behind the team. we just need a bit of effort and encouragement from the players. If people felt that they were doing their best even if ultimately it wasn't good enough they would support them but it's hard when you're freezing, the team are playing like they couldn't care less because they know someone will try to buy them at the end of the season and the result is going against you. It's all very well saying we have no atmosphere - we're too busy biting our fingernails, toe nails and probably fingers and toes too to be able to worry about supporting the team.

[Paul Mellelieu]

  gumboots said:

The problem is it's hard to know which comes first - atmosphere or the players giving us something to cheer. we've proved against Liverpool that we don't need results to get behind the team. we just need a bit of effort and encouragement from the players. If people felt that they were doing their best even if ultimately it wasn't good enough they would support them but it's hard when you're freezing, the team are playing like they couldn't care less because they know someone will try to buy them at the end of the season and the result is going against you. It's all very well saying we have no atmosphere - we're too busy biting our fingernails, toe nails and probably fingers and toes too to be able to worry about supporting the team.

I agree with your central point, it's the players that are responsible.

[Anti-Dingle-Brigade]

Boro look good against West Ham so far, could see them putting some wins together.

[tonygreenbank]

I`ve printed all the remaining fixtures from the web and done some predictions which will allow me to monitor all the results from week to week. It seems to me that Rovers should get enough points to be safe. The two teams who have poor runins are Hull and surprisingly Fulham who have some difficult games. My three teams down are WBA, Boro and Hull even allowing for my draw on Sunday! Obviously games are not played like this but it enables one to see the overall picture rather than panic at one isolated result. interestingly the people who have done this already appear to agree that we ought to be safe. Fingers crossed!

[TimmyJimmy]

I'm guessing I'm not alone in feeling scared sh*tless about the rest of the season. Survive and, with some common sense from the Trustees, the future is bright(er). But right now it's looking tough really tough. I can't do the maths to estimate our chances so the way I'm looking at it is this - win our game in hand to get out of the bottom three, then do no worse than Stoke, Middlesbrough and West Brom for the rest of the season. We have all the glaring problems in midfield that many have highlighted but still on balance as a team we must be better than those three. For me it's the crowd that will make the difference, which is a pity because if we don't get our act together we could be screwed. I have no doubts that the posters on this board do their utmost at the matches after all we are all die hard supporters or else we wouldn't be posting. The challenge I think is to be enthusiastic enough to persuade others to get down to Ewood and join the effort. My earlier posts were simply a reflection that this is not going to happen if we, the hard core, are continually slagging the team off, deserve it or not. No offense meant to you old lags but can we please stop being 'realistic' for a while and practice a bit of blind faith? For what it's worth my bit of realism is that we simply have to beat Hull to survive - despite what I've just said. Even further, if we beat them I'd say we stay up, if we lose ... Jeese it's so hard supporting BRFC sometimes. Come on you blues, where's the guy with the drum.

[den]

  TimmyJimmy said:

We have all the glaring problems in midfield that many have highlighted but still on balance as a team we must be better than those three.

Sorry to pick out a morsel from a long post, but a lot of fans are concentrating on finding clubs worse than us. - Wrong - they should concentrate on how we get to 40 points.

[Gus Gus]

I can't see us getting the wins we need to stay up.

Hope I'm wrong.

[MCMC1875]

  den said:

Sorry to pick out a morsel from a long post, but a lot of fans are concentrating on finding clubs worse than us. - Wrong - they should concentrate on how we get to 40 points.

Simple Den - the gap between Rovers and the pack is widening, wins are required quickly, before we are left with too much to do.

[CAPT KAYOS]

  den said:

- Wrong - they should concentrate on how we get to 40 points.

Again, those mostly worried I see it have actually done this and this is what is getting to them - because they can't see it

  Quote

tonygreenbank Posted Yesterday, 22:37

I`ve printed all the remaining fixtures from the web and done some predictions which will allow me to monitor all the results from week to week. It seems to me that Rovers should get enough points to be safe. ...

interestingly the people who have done this already appear to agree that we ought to be safe. Fingers crossed!

Funnily enough I did this a few weeks back , I think we will get points but will it be enough? - this I have posted before will depend on the outcome of other matches looking at who has got to play each other more than us accumalating 'enough' wins.

[67splitscreen]

Looked on Sky, can't find the predictor, any link, please, will it let us into UEFA

[Jim J]

BBC predictor

I have us to finish 14th on 42 points, well clear of the bottom 3, here's hoping

[incecticide]

Got us finishing 16th on 33 points... that's based on people beating who they're above and drawing with people around them... doesn't take into account anyone getting the usual surprise results. West Brom Stoke and Boro going down.

[67splitscreen]

  Jim J said:

BBC predictor

I have us to finish 14th on 42 points, well clear of the bottom 3, here's hoping

Cheers, no wonder I couldn't find it, even that's an understatement

[riverside returns]

just done predictor and i get hull stoke and boro going down with us finishing at 12th with 42 points, even taht was with some hammerings and losing points here and there