[Archived] Relegation Watch

[SoccerHQ]

Wigan are already on holiday judging by their recent results, can't score and will be safely in mid table when you play then so I'd say that's a game you can and must win.

[gumboots]

Wigan are already on holiday judging by their recent results, can't score and will be safely in mid table when you play then so I'd say that's a game you can and must win.

I'm feeling lazy and can't be bothered to trawl back through the posts to find the info. which club do you actually support?

[MCMC1875]

Just done the BBC Sport predictor.......

......Rovers finished 12th on 44 points.

Down.... West Brom, Boro, Newcastle.

FINGERS CROSSED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[OscarRaven]

Currently 27pts.

Fulham (A) +1

Arsenal (A) 0

West Ham (H) +3

Tottenham (H) +3

Liverpool (A) 0

Stoke (A) +1

Wigan (H) +3

Man City (A) +1

Portsmouth (H) +3

Chelsea (A) 0

West Brom (H) +3

Ones in bold are the must win games for me. So thats 17 points from 11 games - 41pts should see us safe (39.4 points, i.e. 40pts is the magic number this year).

That underlines the importance of not losing and why Sam is right to tighten up, we can't afford anymore than 3 defeats in the run in.

[waggy]

the chelsea game is a game we could take points from,utd may have sewn the league up with 4 games to go,chelski could be heading to rome and wembley,why risk your better players in a dead rubber

[AggyBlue]

Fulham (A) +1

Arsenal (A) 0

West Ham (H) +3

Tottenham (H) +3

Liverpool (A) 0

Stoke (A) +1

Wigan (H) +3

Man City (A) +1

Portsmouth (H) +3

Chelsea (A) 0

West Brom (H) +3

I don't know if you're aware that we currently have the fewest home wins in the league, along with Hull.

I think we'll do well to win another couple at home unless we adopt a far more positive attitude.

[rog of the rovers]

Time to put the statto hat on

Excluding the obvious years we were safe, this is our situation in Prem seasons gone by after 27 games

2008/2009 - 27 games 27 points

2004/2005 - 27 games 28 points (ended with 14 points from last 11 games, including wins over Norwich and Leicester - TOTAL 42)

2003/2004 - 27 games 28 points (ended with 16 points from last 11 games, "the king is Stead, long live the king" - TOTAL 44)

2001/2002 - 27 games 26 points (ended with 20 points from last 11 games, post Worthington Cup victory - TOTAL 46)

1998/1999 - 27 games 26 points (ended with 9 points from last 11 games, including infamous defeat against Nottm Forrest - TOTAL 35)

1996/1997 - 27 games 32 points (ended with 10 points from last 11 games - TOTAL 42)

[T4E]

the chelsea game is a game we could take points from,utd may have sewn the league up with 4 games to go,chelski could be heading to rome and wembley,why risk your better players in a dead rubber

Good point waggy, and we beat them at home in similar circumstances a few seasons ago. Lets hope they stay in all the cups and United keep on pulling away in the league.

[SoccerHQ]

Just done the BBC Sport predictor.......

......Rovers finished 12th on 44 points.

Down.... West Brom, Boro, Newcastle.

FINGERS CROSSED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Yep, that looks accurate to me.

i think it could come down to something like goal difference so playing West Brom at home will be a big advantage.

I'm feeling lazy and can't be bothered to trawl back through the posts to find the info. which club do you actually support?

Villa.

[John]

Hull City's Phil Brown Promises More To Come From Manucho

Southgate: Middlesbrough Need Four Wins For Safety

Tony Mowbray Knows West Bromwich Albion Can't Afford Anymore Slipups At Home

[MCMC1875]

Just done the BBC Sport predictor.......

......Rovers finished 12th on 44 points.

Down.... West Brom, Boro, Newcastle.

FINGERS CROSSED!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

.........I also had Utd winning the title by 14 pts with 98 pts.

[dingles staying down 4ever]

Yep, that looks accurate to me.

i think it could come down to something like goal difference so playing West Brom at home will be a big advantage.

I think by the time we play West Brom they'll be down already. The pressure will be on us as I fear we will still be in the dogfight.

They will be after giving their fans something to remember. We know they can pass and play a bit.

We will be biting their fingernails I fear and listening for other results.

[gumboots]

I think by the time we play West Brom they'll be down already. The pressure will be on us as I fear we will still be in the dogfight.

They will be after giving their fans something to remember. We know they can pass and play a bit.

We will be biting their fingernails I fear and listening for other results.

Why will we be biting their fingernails? Surely our own would be more civilised and hygenic

[MCMC1875]

Why will we be biting their fingernails? Surely our own would be more civilised and hygenic

[dingles staying down 4ever]

oops!!!

[MCMC1875]

This years like musical chairs, or musical whose stood on the trap door when the music stops!

I posted this on the 21st January

I think we need to just concentrate on the next game. There are 8 or 9 clubs at least poorer than us so if we just do the basics right we will stay up.

Runners and Riders

Portsmouth - Since drawing at Villa mid October they are on a horrible run which has been easy fixtures against teams in the bottom half plus Arsenal. The big teams are up next. Goal difference one of the worst. Club in financial crises and a manager who has only proved previoulsy he can go backwards. 2 wins in 13, Rovers home luckily and Sunderland away. Relegated

West Brom - Tightened up the defence and are turning territorial advantage in to goals. reinforcements up front should give them enough fire power to pick up points regularly at home and some surprise points n the road. Three consecutive home wins plus unlucky loses at Chelsea and Villa. Safe

Hull - have they enough points? No! 13 League games without a win and a terrible goal difference. An easy run of fixtures now for 2 months starting away to West Ham and home to West Brom. Relegated

Man City - Big signings and intermittent results. Stumble to safety well before the last game. Great goal difference. Safe

West Ham - In real trouble off the pitch. Can they hold onto players AND keep them fit. Hull next up then 5 exceedingly tough fixtures. 29 points already plus 4 wins should see them safe. Safe

Sunderland - Poor goal difference and a batch of really tough games with just Stoke in the middle of them right up to the end of March. Can't see many points and they are going to have dig deep to avoid falling into the bottom 3 in the coming weeks borderline

Spurs - Just 2 wins in 9, Carling and UEFA Cup fixtures piling up on a small depleted and uninterested squad. The next 9 fixtures are against 4 of the top 5 and 5 poor clubs. Those 5 fixtures as Arry said tonight will need Tottenham at their best or they are going down - Could be relegated

Newcastle - Ditto Spuds. Poor Goal Difference. Lack heart and battle. Off filed problems. Fans dragging them down. Big clubs and relegation clubs coming up for them over the next 10 games. No signings. Poor management. Could easily be relegated

Middlesbrough - 10 without a win losing to all their rivals. Easy fixture list with only Chelsea and Liverpool out of the top 7 before the end of April. Make or break. Could easily go down.

Stoke - 1 win in 11 - 8 without a win. Terrible goal difference. Just played all the top teams though. Virtually all the next 10 fixtures are against relegation rivals. lack of firepower. Give away to many goals. 50% of goals scored from Rory Delap. Probably go down

Bolton - sucked back in to it on 23 points (2 above safety) and a poor goal difference. I win 8 but of those 8, 5 were against the top 5 clubs. The fixture list easys up for them and they are into a run of consecutive relegation battles. Tough battling squad. Safe

Rovers - 5 without defeat, just 2 goals conceded against Man City sloppily. New faces and injuries clearing up under reinvigorated management. Top 7 team last year returning to form. Next 11 fixtures, 6 are against the top teams right at the top and 5 against weaker opposition. Not enough points on the board to carry a bad run. Should pull clear

WBA safe?

[SoccerHQ]

Sunderland are probably the only team who have over 30 points I can see getting dragged back into it seriously now. All the others will be fine.

[TimmyJimmy]

We should really break this down. Games we should really be targetting a win, where it will most hurt. Games we should be able to get something, and then finally games where its difficult and even a point is a great result.

Games we need to really need to target a win - Spurs, Stoke, Pompey, West Brom. (That gets us the magical 40 points)

Games we can get something: Fulham, West Ham, Wigan, City

Games where anything is a bonus: Arsenal, Liverpool, Chelsea

Spot on Hughesy, that's my call as well. Spurs though will be one tough game to win, they often give us a hard time when it's important. A point each from WH, Wigan & Man City is doable in my opinion but Fulham will be really difficult. That's 3 points and would compensate for dropping a b*llock in one of the must win games. So 40 points is reachable, just.

[John]

Skysports.com examines the survival chances of the 10 clubs battling relegation in the Premier League

[philipl]

Sorry hughesy but your analysis fails the reality of the league table and our season to date.

Games against fellow strugglers are must avoid defeats to avoid any of those clubs getting a jump on us. I'd take a win and 3 draws- 6 points now.

The 4 mid table opponents have to give us 2 wins- 6 points

No team stays up without at least one eye opening win during a whole season and we are travelling to the Emirates, Anfield and the Bridge at times we could nick something. 1 win - 3 points

So my base case formula yields 42 points and limits the chances of those struggling against us. It needs just 4 more wins .

[RevidgeBlue]

It needs just 4 more wins .

Doesn't sound much when said quickly but not quite so straightforward when you consider that we've only managed six wins from twenty seven all season.

I'm not too worried about our ability to keep it tight grind out the odd point away from home under Sam, what does worry me is whether we have the creativity or failing that the out and out gung ho passion to get the wins we need in our remaining home games.

We've only won two out of six at home under Sam, a similar return in the remaining games will need us having to find a couple of wins away from home from somewhere.

[SoccerHQ]

Doesn't sound much when said quickly but not quite so straightforward when you consider that we've only managed six wins from twenty seven all season.

I'm not too worried about our ability to keep it tight grind out the odd point away from home under Sam, what does worry me is whether we have the creativity or failing that the out and out gung ho passion to get the wins we need in our remaining home games.

We've only won two out of six at home under Sam, a similar return in the remaining games will need us having to find a couple of wins away from home from somewhere.

True but two of those were against Everton and Villa who are both nailed on top 6 candidates and you won't face the same quality in any of your remaining home games and another was a freak game against Man. City.

Two of the biggies were won convincingly against Stoke and Newcastle 3-0 so why can't you do that against the likes of Spurs (awful away), Pompey or the second coming of Brazil 1970 (or not) West Brom?

[gumboots]

True but two of those were against Everton and Villa who are both nailed on top 6 candidates and you won't face the same quality in any of your remaining home games and another was a freak game against Man. City.

Two of the biggies were won convincingly against Stoke and Newcastle 3-0 so why can't you do that against the likes of Spurs (awful away), Pompey or the second coming of Brazil 1970 (or not) West Brom?

Because in far too many games in far too many seasons too many of us have seen our team squander good chances to beat teams we "should" be beating because we are better than them. We've blown chances to pick up supposedly easy points, not just this season but every season I can remember since i started watching Rovers. Inconsistency is our watchword. We play well against good teams and often still get beat. We play poorly against teams we expect to get decent results against, allowing ourselves to drift down to their level. We are Rovers and that's how life is. I still hope we'll get out of it and stay up, but if I were a betting person I'd not bet even 2p on it.

[roversmum]

Your thoughts are kind and encouraging, SoccerHQ, but we are the Rovers. We don't do things the easy way...

[gumboots]

Your thoughts are kind and encouraging, SoccerHQ, but we are the Rovers. We don't do things the easy way...

Mind you,nor do Villa at the moment. My daughter went to Eastlands to watch them the other night with a Villa fan and said they were atrocious, and her mate was nearly suicidal watching what had happened to them in a couple of weeks.