[Archived] Relegation Watch

[Ricky]

Think Newcastle could be in big trouble this season. I just worry that our dropped points will end up costing us. Too many draws in games that we should have won.

I think Portsmouth could well get sucked into it now.

[DeadlyDirk]

There is a fine line between playing well and picking up points which then turn into picking up a few wins compared to playing well and not getting wins when you should then losing to trickier teams.

It's a fine line were treading on at the moment, I'm still looking on the bright side that we are unbeaten in 9 but its going to be touch and go for a while.

I still fancy the likes of Newcastle, Boro, Portsmouth, Stoke being worse than us, or at least hopefully 3 of them!

I know we'll obviously look to the bad start that Ince had if we go down but a large part of it will be struggling to win against the likes of Bolton and Boro.

[Iceman]

We will be okay this season. A few points as to why:

We only a couple of points away from teams in 11th and 12th. Its the one season, where the gap is easier to close instead of having to claw back a 10 or 15 point deficit, to a team in 17th pos as in previous seasons.

The above, thus allows us to pick up draws, as there are at least 10 teams who all cant win so the gap closes even more. 1 point, is a point more than one of the teams get for losing. So draws are not ideal, but it helps our survival cause.

Goal difference, will be massive come the end of the season. Having a good positive goal difference, are like extra points. Our defence are now alot tighter, while teams like Newcastle, Pompey, Boro, and Spurs are leaking goals.

Keep the Faith guys.

[LeftWinger]

I've just done the Table Predictor thing on BBC - and while I might be biased - we have a lot of games I'd fancy us to get something from.

I had us 8th with just 48 points and a goal difference of -10. (Though there are two games missing from the list so we could end up 9th if Sunderland won their one game that isn't on there.

I had Hull bottom (34 points), Portsmouth 19th (37 games 34 points), Stoke 18th (35 points), Middlesborough 17th (36 points), Newcastle 16th (38 points), WBA 15th (38 points).

I had 14 points separating 7th to 20th and Villa finishing 5th.

I had our results as:

Villa (H) - Draw

United (A) - Lose

Hull (A) - Win

Everton (H) - Win

Fulham (A) - Win

Arsenal (A) - Lose

West Ham (H) - Win

Tottenham (H) - Draw

Liverpool (A) - Lose

Stoke (A) - Draw

Wigan (H) - Win

City (A) - Draw

Portsmouth (H) - Win

Chelsea (A) - Lose

WBA (H) - Win

I don't think that is unrealistic - only two away wins Fulham and Hull.

[Iceman]

So we got the big 4 all away. Its going to have to be huge performances from Rovers, against the other teams. I still fancy some sort of a result against liverpool and arsenal. But the games against Hull, pompey, and spurs will be crucial. Those are must win games.

[waggy]

I've just done the Table Predictor thing on BBC - and while I might be biased - we have a lot of games I'd fancy us to get something from.

I had us 8th with just 48 points and a goal difference of -10. (Though there are two games missing from the list so we could end up 9th if Sunderland won their one game that isn't on there.

I had Hull bottom (34 points), Portsmouth 19th (37 games 34 points), Stoke 18th (35 points), Middlesborough 17th (36 points), Newcastle 16th (38 points), WBA 15th (38 points).

I had 14 points separating 7th to 20th and Villa finishing 5th.

I had our results as:

Villa (H) - Draw lose

United (A) - Lose draw

Hull (A) - Win win

Everton (H) - Win draw

Fulham (A) - Win draw

Arsenal (A) - Lose lose

West Ham (H) - Win lose never do owt against west spam

Tottenham (H) - Draw win

Liverpool (A) - Lose lose

Stoke (A) - Draw win

Wigan (H) - Win win

City (A) - Draw lose

Portsmouth (H) - Win win

Chelsea (A) - Lose lose

WBA (H) - Win win

I don't think that is unrealistic - only two away wins Fulham and Hull.

my little guess

[cn_barlow]

iT would be fantastic to see pompey and newcastle go down. dont care about the third team, so long as it isnt us!

[philipl]

I ran the predictor with Rovers last 15 games yielding W7 D3 L5 and it produced a comfortable 8th place, ten points ahead of relegation trouble.

Getting an away win at Fulham is the critical result for us.

[LeftWinger]

I ran the predictor with Rovers last 15 games yielding W7 D3 L5 and it produced a comfortable 8th place, ten points ahead of relegation trouble.

Getting an away win at Fulham is the critical result for us.

Think you're right about the Fulham away game. Although I'd say Hull away is massive too - as they look like they could be dragged right in. I'd fancy us to pick up quite a few points at home, and nothing against the "Big Four" away.

Waggy - I didn't realise how bad our record against West Ham was. If you don't count the freak 7-1 win at Ewood, we've lost 11 out of our last 13 against them home and away!

[RevidgeBlue]

Things are now opening out, from a situation a month or so ago when almost anyone could have gone down a number of clubs like Citeh, West Ham, Sunderland and Fulham seem to be playing themselves out of trouble.

Starting to look like it will boil down to who is the least dreadful out of WBA/Boro/Stoke/Rovers and Portsmouth over the remaining games.

Edit: And if Pompey replace Adams with someone like Grant, it might be perm any three from four again. What if Southgate gets the boot as well?

[Plastic Head]

I was thinking today at the game what the effects on the club would be should we be relegated.

Certain players would leave......

Ooijer....would go anyway

Warnock maybe....for decent money

Roque...again would go anyway

Andrews....would cost us money for someone to take him off us...but would be worth it.

Maybe Robinson..... but again no great loss.

The financial cost would be huge but some things to consider.

Wages would drop...i'm sure most of the players would have that in their contact.

We have no serious debt. Crowds would not be significantly different. We would have the parachute payments.

Transfers out would bring in decent money.

In short...assuming Stoke and WBA went down also, what team in the Championship would be in a better position than us, even allowing for financial re-arrangements.

We also have a good mananger to get us back up. I know other teams who have gone down have struggled but others have come back up.

If we could get the right players in to replace leavers there's absolutely no reason we can't win the Championship.

Lets face it if Burnley and Preston can be top half and better on no money i'm sure with our manager we can do far better.

[DE.]

Having just done the table predictor thingy on the BBC, doing results from a completely realistic perspective, we finished 13th, possibly 14th if Sunderland win their game in hand. Boro, Stoke and WBA go down.

How in the world are people getting 8th?! No chance, either underestimating other teams or overestimating us significantly.

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

I was thinking today at the game what the effects on the club would be should we be relegated.

Certain players would leave......

Ooijer....would go anyway

Warnock maybe....for decent money

Roque...again would go anyway

Andrews....would cost us money for someone to take him off us...but would be worth it.

Maybe Robinson..... but again no great loss.

What about McCarthy,Roberts,Nelson,Samba,Tugay?.....it would literally be the Ewood park fire sale of the century.

DISASTROUS.

[brfcs5359]

Just done the BBC predictor

Rovers 41 points 14th

Relegated Stoke Portsmouth & Boro. 37 points and below.

Saved Hull West Brom and Newcastle just below Rovers.

[Parsonblue]

I can't subscribe to the theory that the Rovers would be OK if the worst happened and we were relegated. I suspect it would be more like what happened after relegation in 65-66 - a long period outside of the top flight. Then, after a quarter of a century outside of the elite we were saved by Jack Walker. Sadly, those running the Walker Trust are not Jack Walker and I doubt if any money would be forthcoming should we be relegated. I suspect it will be a firesale with the likes of Robinson, Ooijer, Samba, Nelsen, Warnock, Pedersen, Santa Cruz, Roberts, McCarthy, Diouf, Khizanishvili etc being allowed to leave to either get them off the wage bill or bring in funds for the Trust.

When we were relegated in 98-99, Jack Walker continued to fund us as a Premiership club. At the moment the Trust are not even funding us as a Championship club, possibly due to financial problems arising from the World financial crisis, so I doubt they will pour more money in if we go down and lose TV revenues.

Our only hope for a bright long term future is to remain in the Premier League.

[Anti-Dingle-Brigade]

I did the predictor fairly pessimistically and had us finishing 14th!

Perhaps I didn't give WBA enough credit.

Manc

Liverpool

Chelsea

Villa

Arse

Everton

City

Fulham

Bolton

West Ham

Wigan

Hull

Sunderland

ROVERS

Tottenham

Newcastle

Stoke

--

Middlesbrough

Portsmouth

West Brom

[LeChuck]

Swap Sunderland with Bolton and I wouldn't be surprised to see the table looking something like that...don't think we'll finish ahead of both Spurs and Newcastle though, maybe one.

[jim mk2]

I had our results as:

Villa (H) - Draw

United (A) - Lose

Hull (A) - Win

Everton (H) - Win

Fulham (A) - Win

Arsenal (A) - Lose

West Ham (H) - Win

Tottenham (H) - Draw

Liverpool (A) - Lose

Stoke (A) - Draw

Wigan (H) - Win

City (A) - Draw

Portsmouth (H) - Win

Chelsea (A) - Lose

WBA (H) - Win

I don't think that is unrealistic - only two away wins Fulham and Hull.

One point behind already after today.

And after the inevitable defeat at Old Trafford what makes you think this Rovers team can win three games in a row against a decent Hull side and the in-form Everton and Fulham ?

[BRFC1995]

looking at the run ins, ours ain't great but spuds is a nightmare, as long as they don't win a couple of the obvious ones they could be fecked. Stoke have got a dream run in, but on the other hand i expect that every team expects to beat stoke. Pompey have a fairly friendly run in ut i can't imagine they've much confidence of winning any match.

[RevidgeBlue]

I had our results as:

Villa (H) - Draw

United (A) - Lose

Hull (A) - Win

Everton (H) - Win

Fulham (A) - Win

Arsenal (A) - Lose

West Ham (H) - Win

Tottenham (H) - Draw

Liverpool (A) - Lose

Stoke (A) - Draw

Wigan (H) - Win

City (A) - Draw

Portsmouth (H) - Win

Chelsea (A) - Lose

WBA (H) - Win

Looking at those fixtures, with four away games out of the next five, I feel even less optimistic than after yesterday's game.

I'm struggling to see where the next win is going to come from out of those five fixtures if I'm being honest. I think we might need one hell of a run from the West Ham game onwards and it could depend if confidence has been badly affected by then.

My predictions give us a further seventeen points for a total of forty and I think I'm being very optimistic with those:

United (A) - Lose

Hull (A) - Draw

Everton (H) - Draw

Fulham (A) - Draw

Arsenal (A) - Lose

West Ham (H) - Draw

Tottenham (H) - Win

Liverpool (A) - Lose

Stoke (A) - Win

Wigan (H) - Draw

City (A) - Lose

Portsmouth (H) - Win

Chelsea (A) - Lose

WBA (H) - Win

[Ninjathunder]

I had our results as:

Villa (H) - Draw

United (A) - Lose

Hull (A) - Win

Everton (H) - Win

Fulham (A) - Win

Arsenal (A) - Lose

West Ham (H) - Win

Tottenham (H) - Draw

Liverpool (A) - Lose

Stoke (A) - Draw

Wigan (H) - Win

City (A) - Draw

Portsmouth (H) - Win

Chelsea (A) - Lose

WBA (H) - Win

Looking at those fixtures, with four away games out of the next five, I feel even less optimistic than after yesterday's game.

I'm struggling to see where the next win is going to come from out of those five fixtures if I'm being honest. I think we might need one hell of a run from the West Ham game onwards and it could depend if confidence has been badly affected by then.

My predictions give us a further seventeen points for a total of forty and I think I'm being very optimistic with those:

United (A) - Lose

Hull (A) - Draw

Everton (H) - Draw

Fulham (A) - Draw

Arsenal (A) - Lose

West Ham (H) - Draw

Tottenham (H) - Win

Liverpool (A) - Lose

Stoke (A) - Win

Wigan (H) - Draw

City (A) - Lose

Portsmouth (H) - Win

Chelsea (A) - Lose

WBA (H) - Win

And Stoke are good at home against teams they identify they will pick points up against. Don't see us getting a win there. I could see us getting a point at Stamford Bridge though.

[frosty]

I could see us getting a point at Stamford Bridge though.

Same, maybe Arsenal and Liverpool as well. They've all had plenty of draws at home. Out of the big 4 away, the only one I am definetely writing off as a defeat is United.

[Nate]

Well I think West Brom and Stoke will go down. Third sport, who knows? Hopefully, Spurs.

[philipl]

There are several games coming up which will all be about character as well as football ability.

Despite the weakness in midfield, we certainly have enough quality at centre backs and in the forward line to see us through whilst Diouf I have got the feeling tips the balance decisively in our favour.

Pompey, Boro, West Brom and Bolton will be devastated by the way they lost their games yesterday

- Pompey and Boro because they did not take three points when they were offered on a plate by supposedly glamour opposition (Boro had more than enough to have won at Eastlands, ditto Pompey v Liverpool- I watched those)

- West Brom lost a game they should/needed to win on paper

- Bolton simply got hammered by all accounts and if you are looking for a weaker midfield than our's, look no further.

It is going to take a huge amount of character and skill to lift us clear of the difficulties we are in but I will be very disappointed if we are not immensely proud of our team in defeat at Old Trafford.

[nicko]

That BBC Predictor thing is a hoot...

Rovers will pick up 24 points in the run-in despite defeats at Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool and Stoke. Remarkably that could mean a top-half finish.

Home run is vital, think you will win all six...despite yesterday's poor show.

The survival total may be as low as 37 points. And don't write off Wigan dropping like a stone.

I'm putting my money where my mouth is after going through that lot...Middlesbrough to finish bottom is a tasty 5-1, Fulham to go down is 22-1 and worth a flirtation [because you can always lay when that price drops] and Villa to finish top two is an attractive 5-1.