[Archived] Relegation Watch

[67splitscreen]

That BBC Predictor thing is a hoot...

Rovers will pick up 24 points in the run-in despite defeats at Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool and Stoke. Remarkably that could mean a top-half finish.

Home run is vital, think you will win all six...despite yesterday's poor show.

The survival total may be as low as 37 points. And don't write off Wigan dropping like a stone.

Wish I was as confident.

[philipl]

Nicko has done something very similar to what I did and has equally been amazed at where Rovers finished.

A huge amount depends on Rovers turning the advantage we have in terms of having superior forwards into wins against the lower placed teams.

[SoccerHQ]

looking at the run ins, ours ain't great but spuds is a nightmare, as long as they don't win a couple of the obvious ones they could be fecked. Stoke have got a dream run in, but on the other hand i expect that every team expects to beat stoke. Pompey have a fairly friendly run in ut i can't imagine they've much confidence of winning any match.

Not at the Britannia stadium! Stoke have pick up some terrific results at home and only need to win 5 of their last 7 at home and their home run-in is very good as they play West Ham and Wigan at home near the end of the season who'll both be safe and on holiday at that point.

I think the saving grace for you lot is that you have WBA at home on the last day who'll be relegated by then so that's a shoe in 3 points so as long as you're one point clear of the bottom 3 going into the last day you'll be fine.

[RevidgeBlue]

That BBC Predictor thing is a hoot...

Rovers will pick up 24 points in the run-in despite defeats at Man U, Arsenal, Liverpool and Stoke. Remarkably that could mean a top-half finish.

Home run is vital, think you will win all six...despite yesterday's poor show.

The survival total may be as low as 37 points. And don't write off Wigan dropping like a stone.

I'm putting my money where my mouth is after going through that lot...Middlesbrough to finish bottom is a tasty 5-1, Fulham to go down is 22-1 and worth a flirtation [because you can always lay when that price drops] and Villa to finish top two is an attractive 5-1.

I did the predictor thing as well and my over-riding impression was I was completely guessing most of the results which really are too close to call. Nevertheless I came out with something not too dissimilar:

Edit: That was also dependent on us winning two out of our last three games at home v Pompey and West Brom so I think it could go right to the last day and if that happens it becomes somewhat of a lottery. Using the same results but putting in a shock defeat at home to WBA on the last day, it gives a very different picture.

11 Spurs 40 GD -6

12 Wigan 40 GD -7

13 Rovers 40 GD -19

14 Newcastle 39

15 Stoke 39

16 Hull 37

17 Sunderland 36 GD -14

18 WBA 36 GD -27

19 Boro 32

20 Portsmouth 31

At the top I had Manure winning the title by a surprisingly slender two points from Liverpool( allowing them a win at Upton Park today) and Villa comfortably top 4.

As I say a bit of fun but probably completely irrelevant, all the games are next to impossible to predict.

[Ray-Von]

The thing that worries me is there always seems to be one team who is seemingly dead and buried goes on a fantastic run to pull them out of trouble - West Brom, Pompey, West Ham and Fulham have all done it in recent seasons. If that happens, we could really be in the cack.

[Plastic Head]

What about McCarthy,Roberts,Nelson,Samba,Tugay?.....it would literally be the Ewood park fire sale of the century.

DISASTROUS.

Tugay apart...these are why we are where we are....not good enough for PL.

[DeadlyDirk]

The thing that worries me is there always seems to be one team who is seemingly dead and buried goes on a fantastic run to pull them out of trouble - West Brom, Pompey, West Ham and Fulham have all done it in recent seasons. If that happens, we could really be in the cack.

Hopefully it'll be us, we have the potential too just as much as some of the other teams down there, we may have our weakness like in midfield but some of their problems are just as bad if not worse.

[Ozz]

If we repeat last seasons results against the teams left to play, by my reckoning we would get another 6 (Yes six) points, plus whatever Stoke and Hull away and WBA at home can get us. Even by winning the those three games that would give us a points total of 39, which I would reckon take us down.

[LeftWinger]

Just checked, and the last time we were relegated we had 25 points after 24 games (having just won 3-1 at Villa). The sequence of results that followed the Villa win is nothing short of disastrous. Hopefully we can do it the other way round this time (lose to Villa and put a decent run together).

Here is our run after the Villa game in 1999:

Chelsea (A) - Draw

Sheff Wed (H) - Lost (4-1 defeat at that)

West Ham (A) - Lost

Everton (H) - Lost

Coventry (A) - Draw

Wimbledon (H) - Won

Middleboro (H) - Draw

Arsenal (A) - Lost

Southampton (A) - Draw (Having been 3-1 up, I think Mark Hughes scored one for them)

Liverpool (H) - Lost

Charlton (A) - Draw

Forest (H) - Lost

United (H) - Draw

Newcastle (A) - Draw

We'd have to do spectacularly badly to match that run, and I'd certainly rather have Allardyce over-seeing a relegation scrap than Brian Kidd!

[Guest Kamy100]

Just checked, and the last time we were relegated we had 25 points after 24 games (having just won 3-1 at Villa). The sequence of results that followed the Villa win is nothing short of disastrous. Hopefully we can do it the other way round this time (lose to Villa and put a decent run together).

Here is our run after the Villa game in 1999:

Chelsea (A) - Draw

Sheff Wed (H) - Lost (4-1 defeat at that)

West Ham (A) - Lost

Everton (H) - Lost

Coventry (A) - Draw

Wimbledon (H) - Won

Middleboro (H) - Draw

Arsenal (A) - Lost

Southampton (A) - Draw (Having been 3-1 up, I think Mark Hughes scored one for them)

Liverpool (H) - Lost

Charlton (A) - Draw

Forest (H) - Lost

United (H) - Draw

Newcastle (A) - Draw

We'd have to do spectacularly badly to match that run, and I'd certainly rather have Allardyce over-seeing a relegation scrap than Brian Kidd!

As I have said before the coAs I have said before the worrying similarity between that season and this is the number of draws, this what eventually cost us. At some point we are going to have to win a few games back to back and the game in hand is looking like it is going to be critical (especially if Portsmouth win their game in hand against City on Saturday).

The good thing is that we have a better manager then we had last time and a much better squad particularly in the strikers department. We do have some tough away games against the top 4, I would be tempted to play

4-5-1 (Roque up front and Carlos floating off him). Then we will have to win the majority of our home games and beat Stoke and Hull away.

It is going to be tough but I have full faith in the quality of our squad compared to the other teams in and around us and the ability of Sam to get results when it really matters.

[BRFC1995]

Tugay apart...these are why we are where we are....not good enough for PL.

i'd say this is a season where we have never at any point had a midfield unit, or the same 4 players week after week. the complete lack of a midfield is our problem, not one player in midfield tugay aside i'd miss or even care about if their career ended or they were sold, we've the least valuable and least talented midfield in the division, if we had even west broms midfield with our defence and attack we'd be top half. morrison, brunt, greening and koren would walk into our team, which kind of says everything.

[mattyboy6000]

nailon the head there. unless vogel can be turned we seem consigend to being really weak in the middle of the park.

[Amo]

Surely Dunn and Grella have potential in the middle. Grella is a decent holding player. Not the midfield dynamo Ray Mathias spoke of in legends past, but I think he can do a job. It'll then give Dunn the license to probe forward and provide our frontmen with the type of passes they thrive on.

It's just a shame Big Sam never took the opportunity to try this on Saturday. How Andrews demands a place in the 11 with those players at our disposal, I'll never know. No offence there, Keith.

[dillo_dillo]

Check it at the rival's fixture...

[JC4LAB]

Spurs run in looks horrendous for them...

[Balwer]

Spuds do look to have the toughest draw on paper.

Sadly Pompey and WBA have easier runs in than the rest.

[incecticide]

Sadly Pompey and WBA have easier runs in than the rest.

They also seem to have found a goalscorer - have they just signed that Fortune chap? He looked lethal at the weekend. Bang - goal. Bang - goal. Jason Roberts take note.

[John]

Gerry Francis (Stoke coach) talking on SSN just now.

Saying he would take 4th from bottom now. Seems to be encouraged that Stoke have strong home form, and that they play teams like ourselves (at home) in the run-in.

[ThatRabbitsDynamite]

The GOOD: Under Big Sam we have garnered 10 points in 7 matches. At that rate we will have 43 points at seasons end.

The BAD: If we include our most recent match against Villa we will play every team that are currently in the top 10 positions. I'd say that no team has a tougher road to hoe. We do have matches against WBA, Stoke, Pompey, and Spuds though. We have take points from them all and it sure would be nice to win them.

The UGLY: There's 7 other teams in very similar positions and our midfield(this may be a little harsh). (Off Subject) Man City's Kaka bid, Fat Rafa's brain, Marlon King's recent escapade, Spuds tactics(trying to emulate Real Madrid), and the general financial atmosphere of football.

[MCMC1875]

Optimistic as ever, I'm looking forward to a huge staying up party in May.

[ThatRabbitsDynamite]

Agreed. Starting with a draw or win at Old Trafford. Its a match i'll get to see here in the States. I get to see so few. I've invited my brother the ManU fan over. A 1-1 draw would be huge. ending the cleansheet run. A win looks to be monumental but, these are football players. Professional football players. They have pride and anything can happen on a given day.

[SoccerHQ]

I'll say it again, as long as Blackburn are one point clear of the bottom three going into the final day, you'll be fine as you have West Brom who will already be relegated by then so that should be a shoe in three points.

[Rover in Liverpool]

Another 6 wins should be enough to stay up. We do have away games against Mau U, Liverpool, Arsenal and Chelsea so can't really see us getting any points from these if being realistic. So its 18 points form 9 games in reality. Home form will be Key and need to start taking chances away!

[Brfcrule1]

looking at that spuds run-in looks no more harder than anyone else's we have as harder run-in but one thing that has not been seen is Newcastle's run-in they have to play the top 5 and they will not get anything from those 5 Sadly Pompey and WBA have easier runs in than the rest. will agree with you Pompey have an easier run-in and could just about pull clear but let's be honest WBA are gone already might not be mathematically but even if they claw back some points highly unlikely their goal difference is shot to B***ery as it stands would have to say rovers have the best chance of getting out of it as I feel the other 2 are gone and in that mix would have to say on paper the Barcodes have a very tough run-in and could still yet get dragged into the scrap.

[47er]

I'll say it again, as long as Blackburn are one point clear of the bottom three going into the final day, you'll be fine as you have West Brom who will already be relegated by then so that should be a shoe in three points.

Not necessarily true. Sides that are already down often play with a freedom and lack of tension that belies their position.Relegated sides often play well in the last game.