[Archived] Relegation Watch

[DE.]

agree it's not a disaster if we can get a couple of wins but the question is, where are those wins coming from? We don't look like getting one at the moment and haven't for a while in that the win against Spurs was completely against the run of play. I've not given up hope yet but realistically i can't see the points coming and think it needs everyone else in our part of the table to be even worse than they look at the moment to get us out of it.

Keep in mind our last matches have been Arsenal, Spurs, West Ham, Liverpool, Stoke. That's a tough run of games, and I had us down to lose at Spurs and draw with both Stoke and West Ham, so we're actually ahead of where I thought we'd be by a point. The performances haven't been great, but hopefully as injuries subside and fitness returns to some of our key players (Dunn, Grella, Roberts, PLEASE?!) we should begin to look a little more threatening.

I'd advocate throwing Diouf up there with McCarthy if we still have no strikers available when we play Wigan. 4-4-2 with:

Robbo

Ooijer - Nelsen - Samba - Givet

MGP - Dunn - Grella/Axe - Warnock

Diouf - McCarthy

I know Warnock's not a left winger but he and Givet can hopefully work together to keep Valencia quiet. Our other options include putting Villanueva behind McCarthy, putting Diouf back on the right and MGP in the left, with Warnock in the centre instead of Grella or Dunn.

Or giving Doran/Blackman a go...

[Bobby G]

Newcastles defeat gives us another chance for breathing space.

We HAVE to beat Wigan.

If we do I believe we have one foot safe.

Bottom line is 2 wins out of our last 5 games keeps us safe. If we cant do it, we really should not be in this division.

I think we can. But we need a striker first...

[tony gale's mic]

That's great, no problem staying up then ! Name me one other team ( not Prem league, any league ) that has gone it's last two games without a shot on their opponents goal.

It's TWO GAMES for christ sakes. One was against Liverpool, the other was against a side with the third best home record in the league. Woeful performances, but they were still just two games, one solid and one very tricky at the very least.

Wigan isn't an absolute must win, but if we win that IMO we're almost home and dry, since I think we'll only need another couple of points after that to be safe, and Pompey (h), City (a) and West Brom (h) are all games we can get points from.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

If I thought either of Roberts of Santa Cruz were going to kick a ball for us whilst we've still got a chance of avoiding the drop I wouldn't be so worried . The problem is I don't think either of them will. With the forwards ( forward ) we've got at the moment we're stuffed.

[tony gale's mic]

I know it's hardly an ideal state of affairs, but it's very hard to see where Boro and Hull are going to pick up many points from when you look at their remaining games...especially given Hull's form in the last 16 games (7 points). Newcastle have slightly easier games but have looked pretty terrible under Shearer, and Sunderland's fixture list isn't looking too kind either.

It's still odds on we'll avoid the drop.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

I'd expect any professional team of players to do better than we did in the last two games. Even part time pro teams in the F.A. Cup would to at least create a chance or two.That's how bad we've become.

[tony gale's mic]

I'd expect any professional team of players to do better than we did in the last two games. Even part time pro teams in the F.A. Cup would to at least create a chance or two.That's how bad we've become.

The problem being that you're using just two games against tough opposition (second in the league, and third in the league if you're away from home) to try and make sweeping judgements about the next few games.

Just try and hold your knee down from jerking so much and see what happens next game. I'm not even sure myself, but I know that the odds are still very much stacked in our favour. I would much rather be a Rovers fan than a Boro, Newcastle, Hull or West Brom fan right now.

[Fife Rover]

So far just about everyone has said that we will win our last game at home against WBA.

Well if the scenario is that we still need at least one point out of that game to stay up then I am afraid we will NOT get it, and we will definitely go down. I say this after just having watched WBA lose yet again to City. They played some decent football but are just about down now, and will be able to totally relax for their last few games, and certainly for the one against us. So if we are still all tensed up and absolutely and totally dependant on getting at least a draw out of that match, then I simply CANT see us doing it. The nerves and the sheer expectation from the fans will guarantee that.

[tony gale's mic]

So far just about everyone has said that we will win our last game at home against WBA.

Well if the scenario is that we still need at least one point out of that game to stay up then I am afraid we will NOT get it, and we will definitely go down. I say this after just having watched WBA lose yet again to City. They played some decent football but are just about down now, and will be able to totally relax for their last few games, and certainly for the one against us. So if we are still all tensed up and absolutely and totally dependant on getting at least a draw out of that match, then I simply CANT see us doing it. The nerves and the sheer expectation from the fans will guarantee that.

Let me know when you're done with your crystal ball...

...while I wouldn't make such outlandish statements such as saying we will DEFINITELY at least get a point West Brom, I will say that they're a side which we're more likely to beat with Sam's tactics. They play a more attacking brand of football but we have a decent enough defensive unit to handle them, and they leave themselves more open at the back so even given our poor efforts going forward we ought to be able to fashion a few chances.

[tonygreenbank]

2 thoughts occurred to me today watching Spurs v. Newcastle. If we are so bad as too many on here are saying how on earth did we beat Spurs who looked highly impressive today. Secondly, how can people complain about our strikeforce when Owen,Viduka,Martins,Carroll and Smith cannot muster a single chance over 90 minutes!

PS Just spoken to a friend of mine who has Stoke friends and he reckons Rovers fans were the loudest at the Britannia this season!

[AggyBlue]

So far just about everyone has said that we will win our last game at home against WBA.

Well if the scenario is that we still need at least one point out of that game to stay up then I am afraid we will NOT get it, and we will definitely go down. I say this after just having watched WBA lose yet again to City. They played some decent football but are just about down now, and will be able to totally relax for their last few games, and certainly for the one against us. So if we are still all tensed up and absolutely and totally dependant on getting at least a draw out of that match, then I simply CANT see us doing it. The nerves and the sheer expectation from the fans will guarantee that.

Agree Fife. We have to be safe before the last game.

I think we will be too.

[DE.]

Saying we definately won't get anything out of West Brom is as stupid as saying we definately will. Let's wait and see, hopefully it won't be a game we need to win. If it does come to that, chances are we'll beat them. Just because they're "relaxed" and we're "tense" won't automatically make them better than us, it'll just mean the players have to keep focused and do their jobs properly.

[Fife Rover]

Saying we definately won't get anything out of West Brom is as stupid as saying we definately will. Let's wait and see, hopefully it won't be a game we need to win. If it does come to that, chances are we'll beat them. Just because they're "relaxed" and we're "tense" won't automatically make them better than us, it'll just mean the players have to keep focused and do their jobs properly.

Exactly!! And do you think going on their recent performances that that is going to happen?

[47er]

The problem is that if we play like we have the last 2 games we WILL go down cos I couldn't see us getting another point. Further if we play the same side we will play the same, there is just nothing in central midfield and no threat up front. So basically-------can we risk the likes of Dunn, Grella,Tugay, Roberts and Santa Cruz to start games? Unless we can I fear we are doomed.

[DE.]

Well, we'll just have to ensure we don't play like our last 2 games, and play more like we did against Hull and Fulham.

Yes, the team have let us down recently... but they have the perfect chance to redeem themselves at Ewood in seven days. Should they once again choose to underperform, then I shall consider subscribing to the currently silly "we're doooooomededed" balls that's being spouted.

[dave birch]

Got to admit, that I'm concerned, very concerned.

It's not just our position, it's the way we are playing.

There's no confidence, no positivity about the club at the moment.

I'd love just to have a game where we played well and won.

[CrazyIvan]

I'm a little concerned but I shall be more concerned if we lose on Sunday and Boro win by 3 clear goals as we will most likely drop back in to the bottom three and we all know how long it takes to get back out. Having said that, a decent win on Sunday and we'll all be much happier. If we can get some key players back fit and healthy, we'll look a lot better and play a lot better too.

At present, it looks like at least one of the North East clubs are going down if not two. All that remains to be seen is which two, I can see it being Hull and Newcastle with Boro just scraping clear. Present form would suggest it anyway. All we need to do, as fans, is exactly what we did for 80 minutes at Stoke and support our club as vocally as possible and with as much passion as we can. It really is 12th man time.

[Hughesy]

The way I see it is: West Brom & Boro already down.

Remaining place is between: Newcastle, Blackburn, Hull & Sunderland.

A win against Wigan would be a massive boost to us, and a body blow to the others. Id be much more concerned if I was a Hull fan - 1 win in 17.

[T4E]

SSN have just run a story about Newcastle and put out this interesting statistic at the end -

Number of points required for Premiership survival over the last 5 seasons:

2007-08 - 36

2006-07 - 38

2005-06 - 35

2004-05 - 34

2003-04 - 34

The last time 40 points or more were needed was 2002-03 when West Ham went down with 42. Looking at the table and the poor form of Boro, Newcastle, Hull and us, its not hard to imagine a similar amount of points to last year being enough. We really ought to stay up with the games we have left and the points we've got on the board, I think one win and two draws from our remaining 5 games would be enough.

[Ricky]

Just did the predictor and ended up with us mid table. Had Boro, West Brom and Hull going down.

I don't think I was too generous with our results.

Hull D

Everton W

Fulham L

Arsenal L

West Ham W

Spurs W

Liverpool L

Stoke D

Wigan W

Man City L

Pompey W

Chelsea L

West Brom W

Well my predictions haven't been dead on but the points have been.

I predicted 11 points from the first 8 games and we've got 11 points from them.

At that stage I had Boro, West brom and Hull to go down, still thank that's the most likely outcome at present.

[Gareth]

If anyone is interested, Ladbrokes give the following odds on relegation (they're not giving odds on West Brom):

Middlesbrough - 1/4

Newcastle - 1/2

Hull City - 11/8

Blackburn - 4/1

Sunderland - 9/2

[Hughesy]

What odds can you get against blackburn? I.e to stay up??

[Gareth]

What odds can you get against blackburn? I.e to stay up??

A quick Google brings up this:

Bet with Bet 365 Blue Square Boylesports Paddy Power

Portsmouth 1/100 --- 1/66 1/100

Sunderland 1/12 1/12 1/14 1/16

Blackburn Rovers 1/10 1/8 1/12 1/12

Hull 8/15 4/7 8/15 8/13

Newcastle United 5/4 11/8 6/5 5/4

Middlesbrough 11/4 5/2 5/2 9/4

West Brom 33 22 33

[Hughesy]

People really need to realise how bad Hull have been - they have won 1 in 17 and that was a complete fluke away at Fulham (Battered for 92 mins, fulham hit the bar 4 times and then Hull scored in 93rd min). Or you could say they had won 2 of their last 24 (Boro & Fulham)

They can write the last day of the season off as they face United. They also face Liverpool, Villa, Stoke & Bolton.

They have already lost to United, Bolton, Liverpool, Villa and drawn to Stoke. It really doesnt look like they will pick many points up at all. Yes footballs a funny game...but Hull? They face United & Liverpool fighting for the league. Villa fighting for 5th - I think their only hope is the Bolton & Stoke games.

[Neil Weaver]

What odds can you get against blackburn? I.e to stay up??

If anywhere has em, they'll be the opposite (with a little margin for the bookies) to our odds to go down ie. 1/4 plus the bookies margin, so at a guess 2/9.

EDIT - hadn't seen Gareth's post when I replied, I was giving the bookies too much credit for not being greey bstds I see!