[Archived] Relegation Watch

[thenodrog]

I think we should be looking up. So Hull to win v Stoke would be a good result, Sunderland to draw at Bolton. We are playing for £750k? a place now. Plus Hull will go down next year so there are only two other relegation places and it is easy to get to.

Rubbish. We want nobody under us to get another point. Bolton and Stoke can finish in the top half for all I care so long as we finish roughly where we are.

[gumboots]

Rubbish. We want nobody under us to get another point. Bolton and Stoke can finish in the top half for all I care so long as we finish roughly where we are.

I agree except if possible I'd like us to move up a bit because it's worth cash and it's good to end the season positively. Beating Portsmouth would be great. Move us above them and virtually guarantee safety so we can enjoy the west Brom game in comfort

[thenodrog]

I agree except if possible I'd like us to move up a bit because it's worth cash and it's good to end the season positively. Beating Portsmouth would be great. Move us above them and virtually guarantee safety so we can enjoy the west Brom game in comfort

Right gumboots but if the Prem offered to finish the season now I'd take it without hesitation.

[gumboots]

Right gumboots but if the Prem offered to finish the season now I'd take it without hesitation.

You and me both! Actually because of childhood allegiances I'd like to see the Boro escape and sunderland go down but I'm sure I'd get over that if rovers safety was guaranteed.

[T4E]

I agree except if possible I'd like us to move up a bit because it's worth cash and it's good to end the season positively. Beating Portsmouth would be great. Move us above them and virtually guarantee safety so we can enjoy the west Brom game in comfort

The money we get in for finishing a couple of places higher is irrelevant because we all know Sam wont see any of it. Our transfer budget will be exactly the same whether we finish 17th or 12th. The only way it will change significantly is if we get relegated. Therefore, everyone below us to lose/drop points please.

[gumboots]

The money we get in for finishing a couple of places higher is irrelevant because we all know Sam wont see any of it. Our transfer budget will be exactly the same whether we finish 17th or 12th. The only way it will change significantly is if we get relegated. Therefore, everyone below us to lose/drop points please.

It's not just about the money the manager has to spend though is it? It's about money coming to the club. whether the owners decide to invest it or not is up to them but the more we get the more they can spend, not necessarily on players but on the day to day running costs, wages of ordinary people who work for the club like the ticket office people and cleaners and so on. people seem to forget that they need paying for too.

[T4E]

If we need an extra £750k to pay the cleaners and the girls in the TO then someone needs sacking.

The irony of course is that if we take our eye off the ball now and do end up going down, some of them probably will be amongst the first to get their P45s.

[Hughesy]

12th is still very realistic if we beat both Pompey & West Brom.

12th to 17th - There is almost £4m difference in prize money. We must play for 12th.

[gumboots]

If we need an extra £750k to pay the cleaners and the girls in the TO then someone needs sacking.

The irony of course is that if we take our eye off the ball now and do end up going down, some of them probably will be amongst the first to get their P45s.

We need all the money we can get to pay whoever needs paying and everything else we need to pay. All I'm saying is that transfer money is not all we have to worry about. people moan about lack of investment in the team and suggest the owners are not putting in all they can but our money has to go in other running costs too. Every penny helps.

[BRFC1995]

if boro v newcastle is a draw and newcastle eventually do win a game against fulham.......................the last day of the season will be unbearableb if we don't get at least a point tomorrow as we obviously lose to chelsea and get our g/d crushed.

given boros fixtures a draw on monday does relegate them to all intents and purposes leaving the last day table as before k/o.

rovers 37 bad g/d

hull 35 (having drawn with stoke) same g/d

newcastle 35(better g/d)

sunderland 35 (presuming they lose the next 2)

boro 32 (gone)

i can't see us scoring tomorrow and crouch and and johnson can really hurt us which makes me think the above scenario is very likely and could be worse as i presume sunderland and hull don't win...........timing of the chelsea game could not be worse, timing of the injuries to our strikers could not be worse.......final day will be horrendous torture if we lose tomorrow.

[Ray-Von]

I really think Hull will get a win against Stoke tomorrow - I know they are in a terrible run of form but they played pretty well against Liverpool and Villa. Stoke on the other hand look as though they are marking time after beating us.

[b12_simon]

i can't see us scoring tomorrow and crouch and and johnson can really hurt us which makes me think the above scenario is very likely and could be worse as i presume sunderland and hull don't win...........timing of the chelsea game could not be worse, timing of the injuries to our strikers could not be worse.......final day will be horrendous torture if we lose tomorrow.

Glenda's doubtful due to his thigh according to the beeb

[gumboots]

Glenda's doubtful due to his thigh according to the beeb

Doesn't anyone who's doubtful always play and play a blinder against us

[DE.]

People on this board have said they "can't see us scoring" pretty much every game since RSC was injured and yet we still seem to manage it. I expect us to beat Pompey tomorrow and haul ourselves to safety, leaving Newcastle, Boro, Hull and Sunderland fighting it out at the bottom. I fancy Hull to beat Stoke and Boro/Geordies to either be a draw or Boro win. Sunderland need to pick up form fast or they will have a VERY nervous end to the season.

[Sparky Marky]

Yes, I fully expect us not to lose....A draw at this stage wouldn't be a disaster. Will he play Samba at the back tomorrow to account for crouch?

[gumboots]

Yes, I fully expect us not to lose....A draw at this stage wouldn't be a disaster. Will he play Samba at the back tomorrow to account for crouch?

No because he's got to play him upfront to cover the lack of other strikers!!! Already been said on various websites

[Hughesy]

9 homes games, 1 loss - we have every right to go into this game with confidence.

But for throwing away our lead against City and not scoring again against West Ham - it would of looked like this W6, D2, L1 under Sam at home.

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

Following a query from LeChuck and response from T4E on the Matt Derbyshire thread regarding the 40-point mark, I thought I'd follow up on T4E's good work. It seemed more appropriate to post my response here...

Anyway, here's a summary of the notional rather than mathematical nature of the 40-point mark after a quick study of the statistics section on the Barclays Premier League Official Website (http://www.premierleague.com/page/Statistics/).

Since the Premier League was reduced to 20 teams and a 38-game season in 1995, 3 teams have been relegated with 40 points or more. West Ham managed to go down in 2003 with 42 points, while consecutive seasons in the late '90s had already seen the mythical myth of the magic 40 points consigned to the dustbin of history. Coventry (41 points in 1996/97) have joined the myth in the dustbin after 34 uninterrupted years in the top flight, while Bolton (40 points in 1997/98) climbed back out of the dustbin with the Rovers in 2001, managing to stay up this time with the same haul of 40 points (2001/02).

Of further interest is that when Bolton went down in 1997/98, they were level on points with Everton (if only...), and similarly the previous year Southampton stayed up by virtue of superior goal difference, with a further 4 teams a single point ahead on 42 points - Rovers safe as houses at the head of the 4 with a relatively respectable goal difference of -1.

So, 40 points is by no means a guarantee of Premier League survival, but as long as there are at least 3 truly hapless teams, then 40-42 points is plenty. Certainly Southampton had the deck chairs out in '99 when 41 points meant they had a full 5 points between themselves and Charlton at the head of the haplessness that included Forest and a bunch of guys in rubber dinghies kidding themselves they were too good to go down.

Since 1999 the final relegation spot has been occupied by teams with fewer points than Rovers' current tally of 37 points on 7 occasions:

Wimbledon - 33 points (1999/2000)

City - 34 points (2000/01)

Ipswich - 36 points (2001/02)

Leicester - 33 points (2003/04)

Crystal Palace - 33 points (2004/05)

Birmingham - 34 points (2005/06)

Reading - 36 points (2007/08)

So, statistically we are more than likely to be safe.

Sod statistics, though. Let's be mathematically safe - 3 points against Portsmouth, Sam, please...

Cheers,

Weny

[Iceman]

And had we won those 2 games Chris, we would have been safe with probably 4 games to spare.

[Hughesy]

Bang on Icers - Since Sam came in we have picked up some great results compared to Ince's time. Its just a shame we didnt beat City, West Ham & Bolton all at home which we came very close to doing with all 3. That record would then read W7, D1, L1 - Not bad for a relegation threatened team.

Next year we will be fine - no more relegation fights, keep the faith.

[gumboots]

Bang on Icers - Since Sam came in we have picked up some great results compared to Ince's time. Its just a shame we didnt beat City, West Ham & Bolton all at home which we came very close to doing with all 3. That record would then read W7, D1, L1 - Not bad for a relegation threatened team.

Next year we will be fine - no more relegation fights, keep the faith.

We can't really say that with any confidence though. It depends how much and how wisely we spend, who we lose, how much and how wisely other clubs spend, who gets injured , who suddenly finds form, who loses it and who comes back from injury as good as they were and who doesn't get back what they had before. It depends on so many intangibles. I don't expect Spurs ever thought they were going into a relegation battle this season and in the end they haven't but it was pretty hairy for a long time. I'm counting no chickens about next season - we're not even safe this season yet and I have little confidence that we'll get the win we need tomorrow. I think it could still be a scary couple of weeks.

[sparky12]

imo sam deffo has to play samba at the back tommorow and with his performance over the last few matches carlos playin just behind benni.... just my opinion but especially agaisnt city when he came on he was the best rovers player on the pitch ( carlos that is ) !!

[alexanders]

3 teams at 31 points and Hull on 34. Very interesting before the clash between Boro and Newcastle!

[Bobby G]

Hulls down, there is no way they can stay up.

Boro and Newcastle are playing a cup final to virtually stay up.

[tony gale's mic]

West Brom down still for me, playing Liverpool next and even if they do beat us on the final day (unlikely), they'll still probably go down on goal difference.