[Archived] Relegation Watch

[Presty On Tour]

Hull really are in deep trouble, they will be praying for a draw on Monday night.

[SoccerHQ]

Told you you'd win the home games you needed to win to stay up. Well done.

Get Big Sam his knighthood and let him get on with his rebuilding task.

[Billy Castell]

Hull are doing their best to help Boro or the barcodes. Amazing how their season has imploded. They needed to add more quality in Janurary, and got Marlon King. I have a gut feeling the barcodes will survive now.

[DE.]

Hull desperately needed a striker in january. Buying Bullard will go down as one of the worst pieces of transfer business ever if they go down (and possibly if they stay up)... what a waste. Wonder how much of this run is down to Phil Brown? I don't think the half-time on the pitch team talk had a massive impact - they were 4-0 down in that game and had not won in 9 anyway - but I do think he's lost the dressing room.

[Billy Castell]

Strange really, as he was regarded as a promising young manager. Mind you there was another chap who had that reputation too. He was cutting his teeth in the 2nd and 3rd division at somewhere like Wycombe or Milton Keynes............now what was his name again?

Forgot they signed Bullard. Didn't he break his leg in a freak accident getting up off the chair after he signed his contract?

[DE.]

To be fair, I don't think it's fair to compare Brown to Ince. Brown's the one who got Hull where they are.

I'm not sure Bullard has even played for Hull, 5M down the drain on an injury prone player the wrong side of 30 (who some on here were advocating we should buy )

[Pinch]

To be fair, I don't think it's fair to compare Brown to Ince. Brown's the one who got Hull where they are.

I'm not sure Bullard has even played for Hull, 5M down the drain on an injury prone player the wrong side of 30 (who some on here were advocating we should buy )

Yeah, Bullard was injured in his debut for Hull v. Wet Spam. When some on the MB were suggesting we put in a bid, Nicko mentioned that Bullard would not likely pass a medical (and he'd be $$$).

[RevidgeBlue]

Newcastle are so poor I don't think it's beyond the realms of possibility Boro will beat them at all.

That said, it's difficult to see Hull getting another point.

Apparently, they had 20 points after just 9 games! I wonder if there's EVER been such a spectacular reversal of fortune in any League?

I remember some people opining Phil Brown was probably the "brains" behind Sam when they were going well! Don't think you can blame the team talk on the pitch though, the rot had set in well before then as I recall.

[Pinch]

Told you you'd win the home games you needed to win to stay up. Well done.

Get Big Sam his knighthood and let him get on with his rebuilding task.

HQ, you truly were the most confident person on this board of us staying up...I guess it is good to be a detached observer at times. I'm just glad you were right.

[American]

To be fair, I don't think it's fair to compare Brown to Ince. Brown's the one who got Hull where they are.

I'm not sure Bullard has even played for Hull, 5M down the drain on an injury prone player the wrong side of 30 (who some on here were advocating we should buy )

I don't think anyone advocated spending 5 million for him. That being said, was it more of a waste not to sell Roque? In both cases, the player was injury prone, and the buying/selling parties had no way to know they would be injured most, or all, of the rest of the season.

[DE.]

I can distinctly remember some peoplee saying we should have bought him AFTER the fee was known.

Regardless, it's not really comparable to the RSC situation. We got an awesome season out of Roque for 3.5M, anything else we get for him afterwards will be profit. Hull can only make a loss on Bullard and he's as of yet done nothing for them.

[1864roverite]

Rev, I hear what you say but looking at The Bacodes fixtures, none are gimmees.

Boro will just wait for the chance and for me they have the better equipped players for a win. Toon may have Owen, verrucca and Martins but all are sadly misfiring, they could also be joined by Carroll and the leggy Ameobi. Its the defence that would concern me as a barcode. Players such as Tuncay and Alves can score out of nothing and with a midfielder like ONeill in the ranks he can score from anywhere.

Next up for big Al is Fulham. Who could ever imagine such an upturn in performances ? RH has them firing and they will go to St James full of confidence. That game is no push over and nufc will struggle to claim 3 points.

Villa away is the final game and again not a place to go and find a win, no matter how desperate. A team containing pace, height and strength will easily be too much for the geordies.

My predictions

nufc 0-0 boro

nufc 0-1 fulham

villa 2-0 nufc

points total 32

Boro 0-0 nufc

boro 1-1 Villa

wham 2-0 boro

points total 33

Bolton 2-1 Hull

Hull 0-5 manure

points total 34

wba 0-3 liverpool

ROVERS 2-0 wba

points total 31

Pompy 1-0 sunderland

sunderland 0-3 chelsea

points total 36

Pompy 1-0 sunderland

wigan 2-1 pompy

points total 40

I reckon, if anyone is going to escape it is to be BORO on goal difference.

[brfcshabba]

But Boro will only have 33 points according to your calculations so they go down

[Iceman]

I think Nicko mentioned, or somebody that Bullard would be on a free in the summer. It was madness to spend that much money on him. I wonder if we could offer Reid to Hull for 5mill pounds.

[philipl]

It is now astonishingly feasible that WBA might not have been relegated by the time they come to Ewood which is going to make the last day fun to say the least and put a few more Baggies on the gate.

Hull on the otherhand have been Derby bad since they raced to 28 points before Christmas.

[martmitch]

another quick jingle on the predictor sees wba 31pts, boro 32pts and hull 34 pts, barcodes to escape, 35 pts to be safe

[The Prof.]

To be fair, I don't think it's fair to compare Brown to Ince. Brown's the one who got Hull where they are.

I'm not sure Bullard has even played for Hull, 5M down the drain on an injury prone player the wrong side of 30 (who some on here were advocating we should buy )

Sort of Santa Cruz but in reverse?

Strange you mention that as I thought they could've always ended up selling out the Darwen End (upper and lower) given that it'd be their last game in the Premiership for at least another season OR they were still fighting for surivival.

Glad today put us out of that, now it's a Tugay party not a scary game with a team full of momentum playing quick tricky football and an end full of rabid brummies.

[Blue blood]

Firstly, bar the most improbable set of results we are safe. Get in.

Secondly Hull being so poor is no suprise. I saw them a couple of times last season and they were poor, with a mediocre championship side, and 3/4 extra players means that they are a decent championship side. It is no suprise at all that they are struggling.

Am gutted though that they will probably allow Newcastle to stay up. I've a horrible feeling they will beat either a poor travelling team, in Fulham, or an equally dire team in Boro, to stay up as hull won't get another win if we play through till next may. Shame as I'd love it if the barcodes went down.

Having said that, our result plus WBAs result will really put the pressure on all the north east sides. Fun times across the country methinks over the next couple of weeks.

[Hughesy]

I just really hope Boro beat Newcastle - will be great if they do!

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

Cracking win against Portsmouth and yet another great set of results for us.

With so many clubs vying for relegation like lemmings, any of the clubs from Rovers down could manage to go down.

For me, West Brom are down, along with Boro, but I've a feeling that Newcastle will just about pull out of their nosedive, leaving Hull to go back down. I'd tipped Hull to finish fourth bottom before the season started, but having seen them play I won't be shedding any tears.

Well, that's my opinion, for what it's worth. I'm still not crowing about being safe to my Barcode colleagues (yet! ) and the reason for that is below.

[Beta Ray Bill]

Of major bookies, only Coral are offering odds online of Rovers going down (100-1). That's nice of them.

They all seem to have Hull as going down though and not The Toon.

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

A Worst Case Scenario

After a great result against Portsmouth, some media sources and indeed fellow board members are suggesting that the Rovers are now safe. A draw on Monday night between Newcastle and Middlesbrough will mean we are indeed safe - mathematically - but a win for either would mean we have to wait a little longer before we should be celebrating.

So, while we are in a great position to stay up, it's a bit premature to be saying we are guaranteed Premier League football next season. If we lose both our remaining matches against Chelsea and West Brom, we remain on 40 points with a minimum goal difference of -20 and a minimum of 40 goals scored. Should be more than enough, I think. But for us to be talking as if safety is already achieved is not too wise.

Forgetting for the moment what the likelihoods and the odds are, here is a run-down of what could happen if we remain on 40 points. At the end of the season, we might be rueing the hammerings we have suffered at the hands of the Big 4 this season as we could still go down on goal difference. Here's how...

If Newcastle or Middlesbrough win on Monday and the winners then go on to win their final two games, they would draw level with us on 40 points. Newcastle would have a superior GD to us (-16 or better) and would finish above us. Boro, meanwhile, would be on -23 GD at minimum, so for them to overhaul us it would take a handsome win or two for Boro and/or a heavy defeat at Chelsea for us. If we were level on points as well as GD, Boro's measly goals return - currently just 25 - would see us remain above them. Newcastle, with Fulham at home and a faltering Villa away, represent the greater threat.

For us to go down, though, we would also have to be overhauled by Portsmouth, Sunderland and Hull, while Bolton, also currently on 40 points with a GD of -11, would stay above us barring major upsets at home to Hull and away to City. Here are the fixtures of relevance and a run-down of the remaining trio.

Bolton v Hull

Portsmouth v Sunderland

Hull v United

City v Bolton

Sunderland v Chelsea

Wigan v Portsmouth

Portsmouth (38 pts)

Portsmouth would go above us by beating Wigan or Sunderland. Two draws against Sunderland and Wigan would see them level with us on 40 points with a GD of -20. On goals scored they would need to score at least five in the two draws to go above us, but if we were to lose either of our matches by more than the single goal, they would go above us on GD.

Sunderland (36 pts)

Sunderland have a superior GD to us (-17), so a win away to Portsmouth and a draw at home to Chelsea - who may well have nothing to play for by then - would see them going above us on GD.

Hull (34 pts)

Hull need to win both their games to draw level with us on 40 points. Currently with a GD of -24 and 38 goals scored, two single-goal victories over Bolton and Man United would put them on a GD of -22 with 40+ goals scored. A heavy defeat for us against Chelsea and/or a good victory for them against Bolton and they would climb above us on GD or goals scored. United could, or perhaps should, have clinched the title by then and be preparing for the Champions League final, so a Hull victory is far from out of the question.

So, three wins on the bounce for Newcastle or Boro, two defeats for the Rovers, including a hammering at Chelsea, and the following sequence of results would see us relegated.

Bolton 0 v 1 Hull

Portsmouth 0 v 1 Sunderland

Hull 1 v 0 United

City 1 v 0 Bolton

Sunderland 0 v 0 Chelsea

Wigan 0 v 1 Portsmouth

You can't see it happening? Me neither. A draw in Monday's game will suit me fine, thank you. But if Newcastle in particular manage to get that win on Monday night, it might not be so wise to go into next weekend's games thinking a hammering at the Bridge didn't matter.

-- weny

[yoda]

that's what football is all about, positive thinking

[The Prof.]

Good post 1864 - echo's my thoughts. I'd forgotten how bad Villa were in the last few games too. European qualification might be easier than I thought next year.

A Worst Case Scenario

After a great result against Portsmouth, some media sources and indeed fellow board members are suggesting that the Rovers are now safe. A draw on Monday night between Newcastle and Middlesbrough will mean we are indeed safe - mathematically - but a win for either would mean we have to wait a little longer before we should be celebrating.

So, while we are in a great position to stay up, it's a bit premature to be saying we are guaranteed Premier League football next season. If we lose both our remaining matches against Chelsea and West Brom, we remain on 40 points with a minimum goal difference of -20 and a minimum of 40 goals scored. Should be more than enough, I think. But for us to be talking as if safety is already achieved is not too wise.

Forgetting for the moment what the likelihoods and the odds are, here is a run-down of what could happen if we remain on 40 points. At the end of the season, we might be rueing the hammerings we have suffered at the hands of the Big 4 this season as we could still go down on goal difference. Here's how...

If Newcastle or Middlesbrough win on Monday and the winners then go on to win their final two games, they would draw level with us on 40 points. Newcastle would have a superior GD to us (-16 or better) and would finish above us. Boro, meanwhile, would be on -23 GD at minimum, so for them to overhaul us it would take a handsome win or two for Boro and/or a heavy defeat at Chelsea for us. If we were level on points as well as GD, Boro's measly goals return - currently just 25 - would see us remain above them. Newcastle, with Fulham at home and a faltering Villa away, represent the greater threat.

For us to go down, though, we would also have to be overhauled by Portsmouth, Sunderland and Hull, while Bolton, also currently on 40 points with a GD of -11, would stay above us barring major upsets at home to Hull and away to City. Here are the fixtures of relevance and a run-down of the remaining trio.

Bolton v Hull

Portsmouth v Sunderland

Hull v United

City v Bolton

Sunderland v Chelsea

Wigan v Portsmouth

Portsmouth (38 pts)

Portsmouth would go above us by beating Wigan or Sunderland. Two draws against Sunderland and Wigan would see them level with us on 40 points with a GD of -20. On goals scored they would need to score at least five in the two draws to go above us, but if we were to lose either of our matches by more than the single goal, they would go above us on GD.

Sunderland (36 pts)

Sunderland have a superior GD to us (-17), so a win away to Portsmouth and a draw at home to Chelsea - who may well have nothing to play for by then - would see them going above us on GD.

Hull (34 pts)

Hull need to win both their games to draw level with us on 40 points. Currently with a GD of -24 and 38 goals scored, two single-goal victories over Bolton and Man United would put them on a GD of -22 with 40+ goals scored. A heavy defeat for us against Chelsea and/or a good victory for them against Bolton and they would climb above us on GD or goals scored. United could, or perhaps should, have clinched the title by then and be preparing for the Champions League final, so a Hull victory is far from out of the question.

So, three wins on the bounce for Newcastle or Boro, two defeats for the Rovers, including a hammering at Chelsea, and the following sequence of results would see us relegated.

Bolton 0 v 1 Hull

Portsmouth 0 v 1 Sunderland

Hull 1 v 0 United

City 1 v 0 Bolton

Sunderland 0 v 0 Chelsea

Wigan 0 v 1 Portsmouth

You can't see it happening? Me neither. A draw in Monday's game will suit me fine, thank you. But if Newcastle in particular manage to get that win on Monday night, it might not be so wise to go into next weekend's games thinking a hammering at the Bridge didn't matter.

-- weny

However, unfortunately the lack of appearance of the ten year cycle of sunspots statistically means the world will be cindered next Monday at 5.00 so we don't really need to worry about our position.

I think I'll go and worry about my wife having a lesbionic relationship with the cat next door now.

[yoda]

Good post 1864 - echo's my thoughts. I'd forgotten how bad Villa were in the last few games too. European qualification might be easier than I thought next year.

However, unfortunately the lack of appearance of the ten year cycle of sunspots statistically means the world will be cindered next Monday at 5.00 so we don't really need to worry about our position.

I think I'll go and worry about my wife having a lesbionic relationship with the cat next door now.

don't worry about it, ask if you can watch!