[Archived] Relegation Watch

[The Prof.]

don't worry about it, ask if you can watch!

OK - I'll worry now she might say no.

[yoda]

OK - I'll worry now she might say no.

allways look on the bright side of life da doo da doo da doo da doo da doo

my it's good not getting relegated

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

allways look on the bright side of life da doo da doo da doo da doo da doo

my it's good not getting relegated

Ha! Brilliant!

All I said was "I wouldn't mind going to Mexico" and I had the pub to myself. Mind you, I was sweating like a pig and coughing.

Meanwhile I'll be looking forward to next season's Premiership action...

[champions1995]

If Hull slip into the relegation zone tomorrow night they're sure to go down. They're convidence has been battered for weeks and slipping into the bottom three would be curtains for them. However, if the newcastle-boro game is drawn, they might just have the belief to get a result at Bolton and their destiny will still be in their own hands. It really would be amazing if they did go down, after having 20 points from 9 games. They even had 27 points of 17 - so it really is an unbelievable turn around.

Phil Brown has done a superb job at Hull City. When he took over in December 2006, Hull City where in the relegation zone and he managed to steer them to Championship survival. He is the only manager in the history of the football club to have guided the tigers to the top tier of English football and has done a good job so far in the premier league - considering that most people had written Hull off at the start of the season. He did make a major mistake at Man City, but you can't call him a bad manager or compare him to Ince.

[tony gale's mic]

Would love it if Boro win tomorrow night. Might watch the game and cheer them on.

[brfcs5359]

5 teams, 3 for the drop. WBA, Boro, Newcastle, Hull, Sunderland

The rest playing for money....

West Broms Fixtures - Points 31

Two weeks ago... Maybe 35/36 points may be enough? The Fulham Houdini Team?? Need 8 points. Two wins two draws - unlikely, Liverpool at home next. Bad goal difference.

West Ham v West Brom, 20:00

West Brom v Bolton, 15:00

West Brom v Stoke, 15:00

Portsmouth v West Brom, 15:00

Man City v West Brom, 15:00

West Brom v Sunderland, 15:00

Tottenham v West Brom, 15:00

West Brom v Wigan, 15:00

West Brom v Liverpool, 15:00

Blackburn v West Brom, 16:00

Hulls Fixtures - Points 34

Still relying on Newcastle after another defeat. Stoke at home is a massive game at home a MUST MUST win. Look like joining Boro, WBA in the Championship. Desperate for a draw tomorrow night, Boro v Barcodes

Wigan v Hull, 13:30

Hull v Portsmouth, 1

Middlesbrough v Hull, 15:00

Sunderland v Hull, 15:00

Hull v Liverpool, 15:00

Aston Villa v Hull, 15:00

Hull v Stoke, 15:00

Bolton v Hull, 15:00

Hull v Man Utd, 16:00

Stokes Fixtures - Points 39

Almost out of it now. The rest faltering. 2 points clear of Rovers. Wigan need a draw and Rovers a big win v WBA.

Stoke v Middlesbrough, 15:00

West Brom v Stoke, 15:00

Stoke v Newcastle, 17:30

Stoke v Blackburn, 15:00

Fulham v Stoke, 15:00

Stoke v West Ham, 15:00

Hull v Stoke, 15:00

Stoke v Wigan, 15:00

Arsenal v Stoke, 16:00

Newcastle Fixtures - Points 31

Portsmouth home draw. Only HULL can save this lot. Blank sheet after blank sheet. 65% possession to Pompey at home. Enuf said. Only Hull can save this lot.

Newcastle v Arsenal, 17:30

Newcastle v Chelsea, 15:00

Stoke v Newcastle, 17:30

Tottenham v Newcastle, 15:00

Newcastle v Portsmouth, 20:00

Liverpool v Newcastle, 15:00

Newcastle v Middlesbrough, 15:00

Newcastle v Fulham, 15:00

Aston Villa v Newcastle, 16:00

Portsmouths Fixtures - Points 38

Finally came good with late late home win to Bolton. Draw at Barcodes. Safe till next season with all the good players gone and James OTH. Back this shambles to go down next season!! Just about safe.

Portsmouth v Everton, 12:45

Hull v Portsmouth, 15:00

Portsmouth v West Brom, 15:00

Portsmouth v Bolton, 15:00

Man Utd v Portsmouth, 20:00

Newcastle v Portsmouth, 20:00

Portsmouth v Arsenal, 15:00

Blackburn v Portsmouth, 15:00

Portsmouth v Sunderland, 15:00

Wigan v Portsmouth, 16:00

Middlesbroughs Fixtures - Points 31

Must beat Fulham but after that it looks all over. It's all over! Ditto Barcodes, only HULL can save this lot. Just maybe 35 points will be enough. Hull v Stoke maybe the defining moment in this saga. Must win at Newcastle and West Ham or get something at home to Villa. Unlikely. Must win or draw at Newcastle to get above Hull and Newcastle. A chance v. Villa and West Ham.

Stoke v Middlesbrough, 15:00

Bolton v Middlesbrough, 15:00

Middlesbrough v Hull, 15:00

Middlesbrough v Fulham, 15:00

Arsenal v Middlesbrough, 13:30

Middlesbrough v Man Utd, 15:00

Newcastle v Middlesbrough, 15:00

Middlesbrough v Aston Villa, 15:00

West Ham v Middlesbrough, 16:00

Blackburns Fixtures - Points 37

Easy street... Big Sam has an extra month to get his shopping list together! A point a chelski vital to get ahead of Stoke. Playing for big money and 11th.

Blackburn v West Ham, 15:00

Blackburn v Tottenham, 12:45

Liverpool v Blackburn, 12:45

Stoke v Blackburn, 15:00

Blackburn v Wigan, 16:00

Man City v Blackburn, 15:00

Blackburn v Portsmouth, 15:00

Chelsea v Blackburn, 15:00

Blackburn v West Brom, 16:00

Sunderland Fixtures - Points 35

The next two are CUP FINALS. Part 1 complete with poor 1-0 win over Hull. Part 2 next week at WBA could see Sunderland pushing for safety. Half a job. One win or two draws should be ok. Hull and Barcodes come good (not likely), this lot may get caught on the last day. The rest can't win, not safe yet but one more draw should do it.

Man City v Sunderland, 15:00

West Ham v Sunderland, 15:00

Sunderland v Man Utd, 15:00

Sunderland v Hull, 15:00

West Brom v Sunderland, 15:00

Sunderland v Everton, 15:00

Bolton v Sunderland, 15:00

Portsmouth v Sunderland, 15:00

Sunderland v Chelsea, 16:00

[philipl]

Graham, that has been extremely useful- thanks.

We are now at the point that we can write down the specific results needed to send Rovers down.

Boro and West Brom can now only reach a maximum of 37 points so for Rovers to come 18th ALL of the following (or worse) have to happen:

this weekend:

Bolton 0 Hull 1

Newcastle 1 Fulham 0

Portsmouth 0 Sunderland 1

Chelsea 4 Rovers 0

final Sunday:

Villa 0 Newcastle 1

Rovers 0 WBA 1

Sunderland 0 Chelsea 0

Hull 1 Man U 0

Wigan 0 Portsmouth 1

(There is an alternative scenario of Portsmouth 0 Sunderland 0, Sunderland 1 Chelsea 0 and Wigan 0 Portsmouth 0 with the other results the same that would also send us down).

It only needs one of that sequence of results to be better from a Rovers' standpoint and we are safe.

[Hughesy]

Pompey beat Sunderland - its all over

Hull fail to win - its all over

Newcastle fail to win - its all over

Its that simple, nobody is catching us, we are looking up - not down!

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

We are now at the point that we can write down the specific results needed to send Rovers down.

...

It only needs one of that sequence of results to be better from a Rovers' standpoint and we are safe.

Hi, philipl. The same question occurred to me, too, with all the talk of being safe. My rundown is on the previous page (Post #1199) for your perusal in case you missed it.

Hughesy - you're absolutely right. Though the issues of mathematical safety and actual results are two separate matters entirely. Chalk and cheese.

I've said before that I think we were safe with the Wigan win - I can't see Boro or Hull reaching 37 points myself. But that's only my opinion. Not bothered if I'm wrong so long as we stay up. For me, the perfect set of results for this weekend is two drawn games for Bolton-Hull and Portsmouth-Sunderland. Not only do we stay up but we also have the chance to overhaul Bolton on the last weekend. That would be sweet.

So, by the time we play Chelsea on Sunday we may already be safe. Otherwise, we need that point. You should never be planning to rely on the failure of others in competitive sport. And, if need be, I'd rather us do our utmost to secure it this weekend than on the last day.

[brfcs5359]

I saw it 8 games out as this... Rovers losing at Stoke and Villa's collapse the main things I got wrong.

[Billy Castell]

Goodbye Hull Goodbye Boro. Damn you Newcastle.

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

I saw it 8 games out as this... Rovers losing at Stoke and Villa's collapse the main things I got wrong.

...

Impressive stuff there, graham. From Sunderland down, you're not going to be far out at all.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Well done Graham, unbelieveably accurate forcasting.

[brfcs5359]

Playing for money.... Stoke, Pompey, Rovers, Bolton, Wigan

11 Wigan 35 7 5 5 15 16 4 4 10 17 25 -9 42

12 Stoke 36 9 5 4 20 15 2 4 12 15 36 -16 42

13 Bolton 36 7 4 7 20 20 4 3 11 20 31 -11 40

14 Blackburn 36 6 6 6 22 23 4 4 10 18 35 -18 40

15 Portsmouth 36 7 3 8 23 28 2 8 8 12 27 -20 38

16 Sunderland 36 6 3 9 19 22 3 6 9 12 26 -17 36

17 Newcastle 36 5 7 6 24 28 2 6 10 16 29 -17 34

18 Hull 36 3 5 10 18 35 5 5 8 20 27 -24 34

19 Middlesbrough 36 5 8 5 16 19 2 2 14 10 35 -28 31

20 West Brom 36 7 3 8 26 31 1 4 13 10 34 -29 31

Wigan's Fixtures

Wigan v Man Utd, 20:00

Stoke v Wigan, 15:00

Wigan v Portsmouth, 16:00

Stoke's Fixtures

Stoke v Wigan, 15:00

Arsenal v Stoke, 16:00

Portsmouth's Fixtures

Portsmouth v Sunderland, 15:00

Wigan v Portsmouth, 16:00

Blackburn's Fixtures

Chelsea v Blackburn, 15:00

Blackburn v West Brom, 16:00

Bolton's Fixtures

Bolton v Hull, 15:00

Man City v Bolton, 16:00

[Hughesy]

Playing for money.... Stoke, Pompey, Rovers, Bolton, Wigan

11 Wigan 44

12 Stoke 43

13 Blackburn 43

14 Bolton 41

15 Portsmouth 40

Wigan's Fixtures

Wigan v Man Utd, 20:00 - o pts

Stoke v Wigan, 15:00 - 1 pt

Wigan v Portsmouth, 16:00 - 1 pt

Stoke's Fixtures

Stoke v Wigan, 15:00 - 1 pts

Arsenal v Stoke, 16:00 - o pts

Portsmouth's Fixtures

Portsmouth v Sunderland, 15:00 - 1 pts

Wigan v Portsmouth, 16:00 - 1 pts

Blackburn's Fixtures

Chelsea v Blackburn, 15:00 - 0 pts

Blackburn v West Brom, 16:00 - 3pts

Bolton's Fixtures

Bolton v Hull, 15:00 - 1 pts

Man City v Bolton, 16:00 - 0 pts

Hopefully it goes like this - then its just between us on stoke on goal difference for 12th. They are currently -16, compared to us on -18.

[b12_simon]

Hopefully it goes like this - then its just between us on stoke on goal difference for 12th. They are currently -16, compared to us on -18.

Unfortunatley we'll be on -22 at 6pm, Sunday. We'd better knock 7 past Albion, then!

[Hughesy]

Stoke face Arsenal on the final day so could concede a few - as for sunday. I dont think we will be worse than -20.

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

Today's TheGame over at Times Online has a brief rundown of the "Greatest Premier League Relegation Escapes Ever".

Their candidates for the greatest escape ever are as follows, with "Newcastle United 2009?" rounding things off.

Fulham, 2008

West Ham, 2007

West Bromwich Albion, 2005

Bradford City, 2000

Everton, 1998

Coventry City, 1997

Everton, 1994

Oldham Athletic, 1993

-- weny

[DE.]

Newcastle have hardly masterminded a "great escape", it's more the great ineptitude of Hull that has allowed them to crawl to safety by beating the worst Boro team in years.

[Ricky]

Shearers had one win as manager, and as previously stated it was against a very poor Boro side.

Hardly a great escape

[jonv]

Shearers had one win as manager, and as previously stated it was against a very poor Boro side.

Hardly a great escape

yeah but, WHAT A SUBSTITUTION BY ALAN SHEARER!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[gumboots]

Shearers had one win as manager, and as previously stated it was against a very poor Boro side.

Hardly a great escape

Ah, but they are such a massive club that we all have to see everything they do on a different scale from anyone else. It's not even as if they were that far adrift, unlike Fulham or west ham who looked no hopers for a big chunk of the season.

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

Newcastle have hardly masterminded a "great escape", it's more the great ineptitude of Hull that has allowed them to crawl to safety by beating the worst Boro team in years.

Shearers had one win as manager, and as previously stated it was against a very poor Boro side.

Hardly a great escape

Err, the season hasn't finished yet!

The article is merely speculating whether there will be another dramatic end to this season just as in other seasons that are mentioned. It ended with "Newcastle United 2009?" as a playful teaser - though it could just as easily have been West Brom or Boro that they were teasing the reader with.

[DE.]

It's not a "great escape" regardless. The only "great escape" can come from WBA this season.

[champions1995]

Shearer may save Newcastle from relegation but they haven't been particularly impressive under him. Five points from six games isn't that great and in normal circumstances would probably result in relegation - especially when being in the drop zone when he took over. Instead, Hull have taken just one point from their last six games and that is why Newcastle are out the drop zone.

To be perfectly honest, I don't think we will come higher than Stoke. The Potters are playing Wigan at the Britannia this Saturday and although Wigan played well against Utd, their form recently has been dreadful. Over the last six games, Wigan's form is the joint worst in the Premier League with Hull, taking just one point. Stoke are excellent at home and they will probably finish the season with a better goal difference than us anyway, so a draw on Saturday will end any hope of finishing higher than them.