[Archived] Relegation Watch 2009-10 Season

[Hughesy]

Hughesey how can you be so certain we're not going down, if we were seven or eight points clear of the drop zone I could understand your unstinting optimism but we're essentially one bad result away from the drop zone!

And essentially 1 good result off 10th!

I just honestly feel we are going in the right direction and with a slight bit more luck or when our strikers start scoring - then we will be away and will finish comfortably between 10th-14th!

Its swings and roundabouts at the moment - but had we got the luck that Benni's overhead deserved at Wigan & Samba's post shot yesterday we would now be sat on 25pts and 10th with this conversation probably not even happening - instead everyone is panicking.

God honest truth the promotion season in 2001 was one of my favourite ever, and if relegation could guarantee another like that I'd take it every time as opposed to sticking in the stale/uncompetitive league we're in now.

It's not as simple as that though.

I agree it was great fun - but we dont have big reserves of cash or a big backer.

We do not have the funds to do it - if we went down this season our money would be reduced by around £30m - we would then have to find a way to reduce our big wage bill, probably need to increase season ticket prices (for sh!ter quality teams), aswell as lose several players and try to find some money to buy some more & then if it didnt happen in season 1 (Which often it doesnt) - then it could simply be Sh!t or bust!

[RevidgeBlue]

I'd agree with you on the bad luck theory if it was an isolated game or two but we are in a fairly long winless run now which can't simply be explained away to bad luck.

On current form we're only due something like two more wins before the end of the season!

[S15]

But we might stop employing Sunday league tactics.

[frosty]

Hulls next 4 games - Bolton (A) - Chelsea (H) - Spurs (A) - United (H)

Again?

[Hughesy]

Again?

Apologies its even worse for them - AWAY

[Steve Moss]

Hughesy . . . You make some valid points but are incapable of understanding the seriousness of the situation Rovers are in. . . . If we don't win games we will go down. Now I quite simply EXPECT us to beat Wigan, Hull and Bolton and draw with Fulham in our next four home games. Nothing else is going to be good enough . . .

Sam said the exact same thing, early this year. Draws get a team relegated. Winning and getting the occassional 3 points is what keeps teams up.

We have dropped points we should not have dropped. But the season is far from over. I don't blame Hughesy for being optimistic as I am also optimistic. At the same time I agree with you. We need to be at around 30 points at the end of January for a good shot at staying iup. If we aren't, then it will be a struggle. But I am optimistic that we will get those points.

Entertain your supporters who pay your wages...

That seems to be something the club has forgotten.

The club is a business. First objective is to stay up. Second objective is to move up the table and 'entertain'. The club is still working on the first, which is fine by me. Pretty football can wait until the kinks in the squad have been worked out.

We simply can not afford to go down whatever way you look at it.

Absolutely. And whatever tactics are needed to stay up, I'm in favor of. Surviving so that we can be "entertained" in the EPL next season is the primary and only objective at this point.

I just honestly feel we are going in the right direction and with a slight bit more luck or when our strikers start scoring - then we will be away and will finish comfortably between 10th-14th!

I think this is a very realistic goal. We just need a small spark and the squad will start racking up the points. I thinks a couple of fit and talented midfielders would provide that spark. We have decent enough strikers (excepting Roberts) we just need a midfield that can do the job of support the stikers and assisting our defenders by slowing down the other team's attack.

[Hughesy]

Its a massive game for BOTH clubs, especially Hull.

Hulls next 4 games - Bolton (A) - Chelsea (H) - Spurs (A) - United (A)

Boltons next 4 games - Hull (H) - Arsenal (A) - Sunderland (A) - Arsenal (H)

Well the 2-2 draw was a great result for all those above the bottom 3.

Megson looks a dead man walking - especially after turning on the fans in his conference

Megson told BBC Radio 5 live: "It has started now to have an impact.

"It's difficult for the players to be playing in that atmosphere."

"When Klas scores - and it is a fantastic goal and we knew what we were getting with Ivan - even then you are getting 'Megson, Megson, sign him up'.

"Who do they think brought him here in the first place?"

Asked if he thought it was impossible for him to win over the Bolton fans, a despondent Megson replied: "Yes."

[Hughesy]

Just looked at the fixtures up to the last weekend in Jan.

Pompey – 4 points adrift and missing a couple of players at the African cup of nations. Wages cocked up 3 separate months now & Its looking very bleak for them.

Hull have it toughest with 3 of their 4 games against top 4 teams

Bolton have it tough – with Arsenal x 2 & Liverpool Away in the next 5 games. New Manager though so maybe they will get a lucky result or two.

Dingles have a very tricky run too – Utd & Chelsea mixed in with a tough battle against Stoke and a 6 pointer with Bolton

Wolves – Have it in their hands really – Games against West Ham, Wigan & Hull within the next 4. Sh!t or bust for them it could be!

Fulham have a nasty looking run – 3 away games, followed by Villa at home – so they may well slip

Looking at our 4 games our minimum acceptable has to be 5pts with ideally 8pts taken.

Fulham (27) – Stoke (A) – Blackburn (A) – Spurs (A) – Villa (H) – 2/4 V top 8

Sunderland (23) – Bolton (h) – Chelsea (a) - Everton (a) – Stoke (h) ¼ V top 8

Everton (22) – Arsenal (a) – City (h) – Sunderland (h) - Wigan (a) – 2/4 V top 8

Stoke (21) – Dingles (a) – Liverpool (h) – City (h) – Sunderland (a) – 2/4 V top 8

Blackburn (21) – City (A) – Fulham (H) – Wigan (h) – West Ham (A) ¼ V top 8

Dingles (20) – Stoke (h) – Utd (a) – Bolton (a) – Chelsea (h) – 2/4 V top 8

Wigan (19) – Utd (A) – Villa (H) – Wolves (A) – Blackburn (A) – Everton (h) – 2/5 V top 8

Wolves (19) – West Ham (A) – Liverpool (H) – Wigan (h), Hull (a) - ¼ V top 8

West Ham (18) – Wolves (h) Villa (a) –Pompey (a) - Blackburn (H) – ¼ V top 8

Bolton (18) – Arsenal (a) – Sunderland (a) – Arsenal (h) - Dingles (h) – Liverpool (a) 3/5 V top 8

Hull (18) – Chelsea (h) – Spurs (a) – Utd (a) – Wolves (h) ¾ V top 4

Pompey (14) – Arsenal (h) – Fulham (a) – Brum (h) – West Ham (h) – City (a) – 3/5 V top 8

[dingles staying down 4ever]

Any developments on Pompey. Skysports were reporting an hour ago that the Taxman had served a winding up petition over last month's tax bill?

Ok seen it in other thread...Sorry

[Hughesy]

Pompey already 2-0 down

United beating Wigan 1-0

[Tom]

Pompey and wigan both thrashed tonight and with Hull and Bolton only scraping a draw yesterday it makes a good week of results for us, just a shame we couldn't have taken advantage in two easy games we had or we'd be sitting pretty now.

There really is some awful teams around and it would be some feat to manage to be worse than a lot of them and go down.

On that basis I think both Rovers and Burnley will survive but it could get close.

I'd say a good 6 or 7 clubs in this league are Championship standard then a few average teams then four or five good ones.

[Hughesy]

Its not that the bottom teams are Championship standard...its that there is such a big difference between the top 7 and the rest.

Interesting how our goal difference is now starting to look much better now other teams are facing the big boys!

[Tom]

I'm not sure Hughesy I'd say the top 6 or 7 of the Champ and the bottom 6 or 7 of the Prem are pretty interchangeable.

But I may be wrong looking at how Newcastle are walking that league.

[broadsword]

I think we'll stay up, but won't be in any rush to get the Season Review DVD

[grizfoot]

I know we haven't exactly been playing brilliantly of late but there really is some poor teams this season.

Portsmouth, Wigan, Bolton and Hull especially. Wolves and Burnley are starting to feel the quality level of the Premiership now. West Ham are struggling. Add to the fact that Stoke and Everton have had average starts to the season and Sunderland having slipped down after a good start.

It basically leaves eleven teams, any of which could be relegated. Based on tonight's game and the off-field situation it looks like Portsmouth will find it very difficult to get out of trouble. The other two are anybodies guess, but as I said there's a lot of poor teams this year and we'd have to play pretty shocking to get into trouble in my opinion.

[Steve Moss]

It basically leaves eleven teams, any of which could be relegated. Based on tonight's game and the off-field situation it looks like Portsmouth will find it very difficult to get out of trouble. The other two are anybodies guess, but as I said there's a lot of poor teams this year and we'd have to play pretty shocking to get into trouble in my opinion.

I think this is spot on. We haven't played the best but despite that have racked up a number of draws. Any additional creativity, even a small dose, would convert some of those draws into wins. Which is what Sam needs to work on this January, as we are a hairs breadth from having a team that can win matches, as opposed to draw them, on a regular basis.

[Hughesy]

I think this is spot on. We haven't played the best but despite that have racked up a number of draws. Any additional creativity, even a small dose, would convert some of those draws into wins. Which is what Sam needs to work on this January, as we are a hairs breadth from having a team that can win matches, as opposed to draw them, on a regular basis.

Spot on smoss - thats exactly how I feel about our situation - If we were to get that bit of extra luck then 10th is well within our reach....had we already had abit of luck then even higher could have been possible.

Either way, id be happy with 10th - it would respresent a higher placed finish by 3 places, giving us an unexpected £2.5m extra + maybe more unexpected cash for the cup run.

[FourLaneBlue]

Portsmouth face fight for survival as taxman moves in

Surely Pompey are as good as down...

[Tom]

Spot on smoss - thats exactly how I feel about our situation - If we were to get that bit of extra luck then 10th is well within our reach....had we already had abit of luck then even higher could have been possible.

Either way, id be happy with 10th - it would respresent a higher placed finish by 3 places, giving us an unexpected £2.5m extra + maybe more unexpected cash for the cup run.

To be fair we have already had quite a bit of luck already but some poor finishing has cost us in games along with defensive lapses

[Hughesy]

Portsmouth face fight for survival as taxman moves in

Surely Pompey are as good as down...

You would hope so

5 players off to the african nation cup too +

"Richard Scudamore, the Premier League chief executive, has told Portsmouth that the embargo will remain in place unless they can find at least £10 million to satisfy the immediate demands of their creditors.

As well as Revenue, these include Chelsea, for the purchase of Glen Johnson, Tottenham Hotspur for Younès Kaboul, Watford for Tommy Smith and Mike Williamson, and Lens for Nadir Belhadj and Aruna Dindane. Alexandre Gaydamak, the former owner, is also owed money. Next month £7 million is due to the club as their share of television revenue, but the League will use it to pay creditors. "

[DE.]

Pompey seem to be 'going into adminsitration' every week. When's it actually going to happen?

[Threepenny Bit Foot]

I know we haven't exactly been playing brilliantly of late but there really is some poor teams this season.

Portsmouth, Wigan, Bolton and Hull especially. Wolves and Burnley are starting to feel the quality level of the Premiership now. West Ham are struggling. Add to the fact that Stoke and Everton have had average starts to the season and Sunderland having slipped down after a good start.

It basically leaves eleven teams, any of which could be relegated. Based on tonight's game and the off-field situation it looks like Portsmouth will find it very difficult to get out of trouble. The other two are anybodies guess, but as I said there's a lot of poor teams this year and we'd have to play pretty shocking to get into trouble in my opinion.

Early days for predictions but I think Portsmouth will go with two of the other poorer teams, Hull probably plus one other. I don't think that other will be us as we should get 38-40 points at least and third from bottom will be lucky to hit 35 points at the current rate.

[meerkat]

Warwick Uni predictor

Has us finishing 12th, with Hull, Portsmouth and Wolves going down.

[Bobby G]

Not much of a predictor if it just multiplies your points per game, by the number of games left. It follows the theory that you will continue to pick up points that the same rate, therefore you will virtually finish in your current position.

[Steve Moss]

Not much of a predictor if it just multiplies your points per game, by the number of games left. It follows the theory that you will continue to pick up points that the same rate, therefore you will virtually finish in your current position.

I think its a bit more complex than that. The predicator has us at 42.3 points. Using simple math as to our performance to date and extrapolating that to the full 38 matches, we are on track for 39.9 point season.

The good news is that based on all teams progress to date, we should stay up under either system.