[Archived] Relegation Watch 2009-10 Season

[daveoftherovers]

I think Pompey and Hull are pretty much in the pooh.

I can't see where the dingles will get their first point from, so hopefully when they arrive, they will be too late (Please let them beat Derby's record!), however, there will be a proper cat fight down there, Wolves looking the most vulnerable out of big club, Stoke, West Ham, Wigan and Sunderland IMHO.

Overall, Prem not as good as last year, a def. dip in the overall standard, improvement wise, you've got Citeh and that's it.

Most of the decent players aren't coming or are actually leaving the prem!

[JC4LAB]

...and Players leaving the big clubs like Man U and Arsenal and even Villa at Villa park means that games against them at the end of the season are no longer the no hopers they once were..

[Ninjathunder]

I can't see where the dingles will get their first point from

Stoke away, that's where.

[laughatthedingles]

the four leagues will be as follows:

champs league: man u, Liverpool, arsenal, Chelsea.

Europe: man city, villa, everton, spurs.

Mid tablers: us, Sunderland, west ham, fulham.

Bottom lot: Bolton, dingles, Stoke, hull, birmingham, Portsmouth, wolves.

[Moppy]

the four leagues will be as follows:

champs league: man u, Liverpool, arsenal, Chelsea.

Europe: man city, villa, everton, spurs.

Mid tablers: us, Sunderland, west ham, fulham.

Bottom lot: Bolton, dingles, Stoke, hull, birmingham, Portsmouth, wolves.

I would agree with that, except I think there maybe a race for the last champs league spot with Arsenal dropping down to the 2nd tier.

[3rdpillar]

I would agree with that, except I think there maybe a race for the last champs league spot with Arsenal dropping down to the 2nd tier.

no exceptions, the dude done a good job of the bleedin obvious.

[CAPT KAYOS]

Stoke away, that's where.

Agree on this (they have a good record down there)

Brum are the banker fodder IMO - the rest will be a battle much akin to last season - as always however probably too early to predict and in the present state would include ourselves in that battle as see no difference at the moment how we have strengthened our team from last season.

[champions1995]

One of the biggest fallacies in football this.

Seriously...what did Wolves and Brum do in those two or so weeks that means they have a better chance of staying up than the Play Off winners?

An extra two weeks preparation time to rest/recooperate/plan ahead for the new season can be really important to some clubs. You have to remember, Burnley got to the Semi Finals of the Carling Cup last season (+7 games), 5th Round of the FA Cup (+5 games due to replays) and won the play offs (+3 games) - meaning they played a total of 61 matches throughout the season. By contrast, Birmingham played 49 games in total last season (Burnley played 12 matches more) and Wolves played 50 games (Burnley played 11 matches more).

So I believe to have two weeks less preparation time after having a much longer season than the other promoted teams is a handicap, and could possibly mean that Burnley are two weeks behind the other promoted clubs in their preparations.

This is how the teams who have won the Play Offs have coped in the last three seasons in relation to the other two promoted clubs:

2008-09 Hull - 17th - SURVIVED - Came above one promoted club

2007-08 Derby - 20th - RELEGATED - Below both

2006-07 Watford - 20th - RELEGATED - Below both

[Steve Moss]

Surely any unbiased assessment of things at Ewood Park right now would put us in the mix? We've lost a striker, have a midfield that is not up to the task. We're still waiting on a replacement for a player we sold 12 months ago, never mind the one that left a few weeks ago. Will a solid back four and a good keeper be enough to keep us in the league?

Last half of the season our player position was even more dire than it is now, and BS played us into a top 10 club (looking at only the last 5 months of the season). Now that he's had a chance to strengthen the squad, even if mildly, we should be solid.

[Blue blood]

Looking at champions1995's analysis I'd say it would be criminal if we finished below 13th. All those clubs are much worse than us in our current position.

Only one which might challenge us a bit is Wigan, as I think Martinez is a decent manager, but then you could make a case for Bolton being in that list too, and it'll be interesting to see how well a Sunderland team who were dire do last season, even with the money.

For the record I think it's too early to say who will go down as a couple of key signings may well make any of these teams less dire than the rest and give them the edge. For all those who say the prem is a top quality league, champions' list says otherwise imo.

[FourLaneBlue]

So I believe to have two weeks less preparation time after having a much longer season than the other promoted teams is a handicap, and could possibly mean that Burnley are two weeks behind the other promoted clubs in their preparations.

This is how the teams who have won the Play Offs have coped in the last three seasons in relation to the other two promoted clubs:

2008-09 Hull - 17th - SURVIVED - Came above one promoted club

2007-08 Derby - 20th - RELEGATED - Below both

2006-07 Watford - 20th - RELEGATED - Below both

The reason the teams promoted through the play-offs struggle is because generally they are not that good. If they were then they would have achieved automatic promotion and not struggled into the play-offs in the last few games which is often the case.

Burnley may be an exception to this rule as their cup runs may well have distracted them from the league. If they do struggle I do not think it can be blamed on having a few weeks less than the likes of Wolves and Birmingham to prepare.

Unless they drastically make some new signings then Pompey and Hull look doomed. With the promoted clubs likely to provide at least a couple of strugglers as usual and Wigan looking weak then we are looking at a weak bottom section of The Premiership this coming season.

[daveoftherovers]

Previous "Form" at Stoke means nothing IMHO...

Stoke away last year was most clubs graveyard, and Pullis has improved his squad, their prep and their fitness this time around.

They won't need the ball for 20 minutes but I think most people will come unstuck at Stoke TBH, if you can't beat Stanley then Stoke will have you...

[champions1995]

The reason the teams promoted through the play-offs struggle is because generally they are not that good. If they were then they would have achieved automatic promotion and not struggled into the play-offs in the last few games which is often the case.

Burnley may be an exception to this rule as their cup runs may well have distracted them from the league. If they do struggle I do not think it can be blamed on having a few weeks less than the likes of Wolves and Birmingham to prepare.

Unless they drastically make some new signings then Pompey and Hull look doomed. With the promoted clubs likely to provide at least a couple of strugglers as usual and Wigan looking weak then we are looking at a weak bottom section of The Premiership this coming season.

I agree with what you are trying to say, and that the reason most play off winners go down is because they are not as good as the other sides who got promoted. I also agree that Burnley can't blame the fact they had two weeks less to prepare if they do go down, but I still believe the loss of two weeks can make it more difficult if they are to avoid relegation. Since the play off winners missed out on automatic promotion, they probably need more preparation time than the other clubs so they will be up to the required standard come the start of the season. To have two weeks less than the other clubs when you are already the poorest of the three promoted sides certainly doesn't help and can give the other sides a slight advantage.

Poor result really for Hull today - a 1-1 draw with Beijing Guoan. Unless Hull make some big signings they are going down, and they desperately need Bullard back from injury to bolster their midfield. As for Pompey, I can't see Paul Hart lasting the whole season and believe that he was the wrong choice in terms of appointing him as manager. They too look very vulnerable, and may be joined in the drop zone with one of the promoted sides.

[Mr. E]

Very obvious statement given how we did in the last 20 games of 2008/9 (worth a Europa Cup place if extended across 38 games) and our sales involve players who made appearances in 5 games between them in those games. We not only have an experienced international right back recruited to replace Ooijer but have three new youthful quick midfielders recruited to replace Tugay plus Dunn, Emerton and Reid coming back into contention.

The statement is further strengthened if yesterday's reports about Di Santos and Ghilas are true.

And it would appear that there is still a transfer kitty being held in reserve whilst the club's wage bill is much better than last season's and the interest bill should be much lower in the meantime.

Let's not confuse in theory for fact here. We finished 15th, a few points clear off relegation and failed to beat last-placed WBA in our final home game.

Ince and a lot of people were joking about relegation during pre-season, and that joke turned around to bite us. So I wouldn't be too confident just yet.

[brfcs5359]

A great thread is back. Probably more interesting that the top 4 because that never changes.

I stand by last seasons wash up; Hull nailed on to go down. Managers a clown, players are all huff and puff at best. Pompey are in real trouble. Defoe, Crouch, Diawra...

Stoke are no hopers reliant on Wimbledon tactics. In their second top flight season they will not get the great home results they so relied on last season. Wigan went on a spiral and more good players have left.

People say Brum are he worst team coming up. More kick and rush. Should finish bottom 3. Bolton staggered last season but the new boys should keep them above relegation again.

Rovers picked up a staggering amount of points under Sam and will finish top half. Fulham may lose Hangerland and the goals for column didn't impress last season, neither did the results toward the end. Sunderland are pants - the whole squad. 2 new signings won't improve them much and just staving off relegation may be repeated.

Wolves let a lot in, had a run where winning was something the opposition enjoyed. Burnley are pants but first season surprise, and the lack of quality of those below them gives them hope.

Don't rule out West Ham. A side poorer than Rovers who had some fortunate results. Without any real reinforcements a bad run could expose them.

Relegated. Hull, Burnley, Portsmouth.

[Eddie]

Last half of the season our player position was even more dire than it is now, and BS played us into a top 10 club (looking at only the last 5 months of the season). Now that he's had a chance to strengthen the squad, even if mildly, we should be solid.

So why are Hull in the mix then? If you take their first half they were in the chase for the top 6.

Why a couple sides that finished above us?

Anyone who thinks that this squad is seriously not in danger of being relegated is a fool. We seriously underachieved in the first half of the season and after Allardyce came in we were organized and also had our fair amount of good fortune, organized sides lacking in attacking quality do not fair well in this league, certainly not ones without any pace.

Our midfield is why we will struggle and it looks like it is an area of the side that will yet again go unaddressed. They day Reid and Dunn are out the door so that we have to bring in new midfielders will be a blessing.

[47er]

So why are Hull in the mix then? If you take their first half they were in the chase for the top 6.

Why a couple sides that finished above us?

Anyone who thinks that this squad is seriously not in danger of being relegated is a fool. We seriously underachieved in the first half of the season and after Allardyce came in we were organized and also had our fair amount of good fortune, organized sides lacking in attacking quality do not fair well in this league, certainly not ones without any pace.

Our midfield is why we will struggle and it looks like it is an area of the side that will yet again go unaddressed. They day Reid and Dunn are out the door so that we have to bring in new midfielders will be a blessing.

A rubbish opinion but anyone who doesn't agree with it is a "fool". Nice one.

[Miker]

You have to think that Portsmouth, Wigan and Hull are in serious danger of going down. Although the promoted teams don't necessary have the strongest teams, they at least have more drive to succeed.

Wigan and Portsmouth have new managers and have lost some key players. Portsmouth in particular. If they struggled last season... how are they going to do without the likes of Defoe, Crouch and Glen Johnson?? Their signings of Zaki and Mokoena just show that they're going to be in serious trouble.

Wigan lost Palacios and Valencia and replaced them with Championship players... not good enough.

Hull will be interesting becuase they've failed to strengthen and I'm not sure how strong they'll be able to be next season, especially if they lose Turner to Spurs.

Birmingham has made some signings with potential quality, so I anticipate them to stay up if those signings perform.

Burnley I really don't know about... either they perform well as a team or they don't.

Wolves seem to have good players up front, but lack a solid defence, which could be seriously exposed by better quality teams, but I would still think they would do well enough to stay up.

[Hughesy]

Too early to say with 5 weeks transfer window remaining. However, Rovers will not be in any danger this season.

I will go with that prediction too Philip.

I have 100% faith in Big Sam's rebuilding job

Not yet decided on my final 3 (due to transfers still happening), however at the moment id go with:

Pompey, Hull & Wolves

[champions1995]

To be honest, I also think it is probably too early to decide on which three teams will be relegated, but I would probably go for Hull and Portsmouth if I was to choose now. I'm really not sure who the third team would be, but I would have to go for one of the promoted clubs. Not sure which though.

[philipl]

Hull after getting to 28 points produced a second half of the season that was worse than anything Sunderland have managed and was rivalling Derby in its dreadfulness.

If anything, this summer's transfer dealings have weakened them so Hull are close to certs for 20th place.

Beyond that, at the moment Pompey and Wigan look desperately weak and the three newly promoted teams have to be in the mixer although Brum look to have bought pretty well this summer. Bolton might be going backwards and there will be a surprise struggler- usually is. Perhaps West Ham?

[tcj_jones]

Yeah, have to agree. I can't see how Hull will survive next season, especially when the newly promoted clubs have either spent big money, or spent wisely on th best talent from the Championship and Scotland.

Hull and Wigan are in big trouble for me. Pompey seem to be getting their act together a little, but are also in grave danger of going down, as it stands anyway. The three newly promoted clubs will be in the scrap as well. I think we could also be involved unless we drastically improve our attack.

[joey_big_nose]

Hull and Wigan are in big trouble for me. Pompey seem to be getting their act together a little, but are also in grave danger of going down, as it stands anyway. The three newly promoted clubs will be in the scrap as well. I think we could also be involved unless we drastically improve our attack.

Wigan have got a quality manager and money. It depends who they buy but I think they will be okay.

I think Sam is a good manager but everyone seems to be making progress as clubs. Even Pompey seem to be stabalising and Hull are active in the transfer market. Another hard year coming up.

[John]

Wigan have got a quality manager and money. It depends who they buy but I think they will be okay.

I think Sam is a good manager but everyone seems to be making progress as clubs. Even Pompey seem to be stabalising and Hull are active in the transfer market. Another hard year coming up.

Bit of panic setting in Joey?

Wigan have got a good up and coming manager, however Martinez is not proven at a higher level yet - the signs look good for him though but he is still untested.

Pompey have continually sold their best players and at this moment in time their squad looks very average, plus was Paul Hart the cheap option for them as manager? Hull are dire and are getting knock backs in the transfer market.

Of course, as the transfer window is still open, clubs still have plenty of time to make quality additions.

From our perpsective, Sam knows what he is doing and there will be at least 2 decent/quality new signings by the end of August IMO.

[47er]

Loads of fools on here then Eddie!