[Archived] Relegation Watch 2009-10 Season

[den]

There is a tendancy to look for three clubs who are worse than us. Look for the 40 points that we need, don't worry about others.

Look at the top four clubs - plus Man city and we will possibly get zero points from them. That's ten games where we pick nothing up. That leaves 28 games to pick up 40 points. At the present, we need another 39 points from the 25 winnable games remaining. Is that a worry?

[Big Fat Sam]

There is a tendancy to look for three clubs who are worse than us. Look for the 40 points that we need, don't worry about others.

Look at the top four clubs - plus Man city and we will possibly get zero points from them. That's ten games where we pick nothing up. That leaves 28 games to pick up 40 points. At the present, we need another 39 points from the 25 winnable games remaining. Is that a worry?

Are you saying your worried?

[Baz]

Bah.

[den]

Are you saying your worried?

At the moment yes. We need the injured squad members to get back onto the field and show us they can provide the quality we currently lack.

[1864roverite]

Den, your spot on mate.

Rovers have to win 12 games and obtain the odd draw to make up the 40 points.

As it stands it is hard to see where we can pick a win up becuase if you watch tv, the clubs we suppose are worse off than us are ALL playing better football.

We are reaching breaking point where the win column has to have some notches in it. Wolves is now going to be a must win game. A point aint good enough and a loss take us further away from the middle pack and that after just 4 games.

[Big Fat Sam]

At the moment yes. We need the injured squad members to get back onto the field and show us they can provide the quality we currently lack.

We need goals, desperatly. I'd hoped for 4 points by this stage, draw at sunderland and a win against West ham. We battered west ham at home last year and drew so was hoping for better and we drew at sunderland. So its only one point less, but we drew with City at home last season but they've progressed a bit since last year so like you expect nothing from them this year, but hope anyway.

So really we're only one point worse off than the same games last year, so not too worried yet but we need goals soon.

[DavidMailsTightPerm]

Rovers to go down with two others. After the crap yesterday, I can not beleave there are three sides worse than the Rovers.

Average - definitely, c**p - nah.

Ultimately it will probably be Rovers defence that keeps us up - and that looked ok yesterday.

[Hasta]

Wolves at Home is huge next game.

After that we have got Everton, Villa, Arsenal, Burnley, Chelsea, Man U.

I'd be happy with just 7 more points before the end of October. That should keep our head just on or adove the releagtion mark by the time the fixtures ease off.

Of course we may well take a few surprise scalps over that period but at the moment it doesn;t feel like it.

[Steve Moss]

We'll get the points we need from:

Burnley

Wolves

Portsmouth

Bolton

Hull

Birmingham

With the odd draw or win thrown in. 40 points plus.

Next season is when we'll begin to shine, when Sam's unloaded some of the perpetually injured/erratically performing players clogging up the wage bill.

[Hasta]

We'll get the points we need from:

Burnley

Wolves

Portsmouth

Bolton

Hull

Birmingham

With the odd draw or win thrown in. 40 points plus.

Next season is when we'll begin to shine, when Sam's unloaded some of the perpetually injured/erratically performing players clogging up the wage bill.

Last season we only won 3 of the 10 games against the bottom 5. Why are we suddenly going to start steamrollering these teams?

[Billy Castell]

So we're being relegated after 3 games then. Should we inform the Premier League of this?

We have a lot of new players, andit will take time to fit them all in, and settle the squad.

[John]

Find it quite sad and difficult to counter argue.

But so many people telling me we are going to struggle this season

[Big Fat Sam]

Find it quite sad and difficult to counter argue.

But so many people telling me we are going to struggle this season

I think its a bit early to be saying we're doomed.

We're not shipping loads of goals, so thats a definite bonus. But we have a lot of IF's in the squad now, and the lack of goals is a serious worry.

I'll be more worried if Benni goes since you need a 10 goal a season striker to stay up and he is one, Kalinic could do but I'd like the security of knowing that Benni is there.

If you compare results this year to the same ones last year we 're far from doomed yet.

[John]

I think its a bit early to be saying we're doomed.

I am not saying it but a lot of people are thinking we are.

Personally, think we will be ok, but not much to be positive about at the moment.

[Steve Moss]

I think we'll be fine. Sure, we aren't pounding in the goals but much of our talent is inexperienced (Di Santo, Kalinic, Hiolett, NZoni). Give them a month or two to adjust and we may see a much needed positive change in the goal scoring department.

[champions1995]

The season is well and truly underway, with Portsmouth already looking destined for the Championship after just five games. Hull have started poorly with just four points from five games, and todays opponents Wolves looked very poor and have also got just the four points. Birmingham look short of goals, and Bolton have also had a rocky start despite todays victory.

[philipl]

I fancy Brum to get something against Villa today who are my hunch for this season's surprise strugglers. Wigan seem to be well organised under Martinez and unlike us managed to get a win against a very poor West Ham who played ultra negatively a second game running in the north west.

Pompey are in deep trouble and could do a Derby if not careful. Hull have key weaknesses and things are just not right at Bolton. Hard to judge Wolves based on their injury problems but they were my tip to go down out of the promoted trio.

I think the dingles got lucky getting promoted this season because as nicko said there are a number of weak teams in the Prem this season. However, the entertainment on offer so far has been of a very high standard.

Incidentally, ahead of today's Cardiff v Newcastle game which could upset things, last season's relegated trio are in positions 1 - 3 in the second tier. Perhaps the parachute payments are beginning to completely distort that league?

[American]

I fancy Brum to get something against Villa today who are my hunch for this season's surprise strugglers.

Incidentally, ahead of today's Cardiff v Newcastle game which could upset things, last season's relegated trio are in positions 1 - 3 in the second tier. Perhaps the parachute payments are beginning to completely distort that league?

Agree with you on the first point - with the 2 of us predicting that, people should put money on Villa finishing top 4.

I think the Championship has been pretty poor after the first few clubs most of the past several seasons. Teams can have poor 5-10 match runs and still finish top 6. Think the parachute payments only help the first season or 2. If you don't make it up by then - just watch Reading this season.

[philipl]

Until two seasons ago, the parachute payments were £5m per club given for two seasons.

Then it leapt to £16m per season for two seasons. So Reading are still benefiting because this is their last season receiving the parachute.

The £16m needs putting in the context of being greater than the total turnover of either Hull or Stoke (both enjoying 20,000+ average crowds) in the season they won promotion to the Prem.

The Boro article talks of "only" a £25m TV money shortfall from being outside the Prem this season.

Incidentally, when a club makes it back into the Prem at the first attempt saving on the second parachute payment, that £16m goes back into the general fund given by the Prem to football and so the total income to the Coca Cola League is somewhat diminished as a result.

[philipl]

One thing worth noting, there have been only 3 draws in 46 Prem matches so far this season.

If this trend continues, the safety target will rise to 40 points or above and any club drawing a lot of matches (and at the moment that includes Rovers with one draw!) rather than winning winnable games is going to struggle.

[tcj_jones]

It's certainly made things at the top end of the table exciting!

It's draws that relegate a team, not defeats. Wigan have lost three from five and not looked overly good, but already have six points on the board. Pompey are already down.

[philipl]

Another Saturday with draws very rare- just at the Breezeblok at the moment.

Very early days but already it looks like both Rovers and the dingles will have to really screw up for either club to go down.

Pompey will challenge Derby for worst points total.

Hull are imploding on and off the park.

Bolton are no great shakes and are going down unless they fire Megson.

And that is before anyone gets into arguing the demerits of Wolves, Brum, Wigan and West Ham this season.

[brfcs5359]

West Ham are my surprise team. They are pants.

Sunderland have had too much press. 36 points last season and maybe... just maybe 10 points better.. maybe. Rubbish in other words.

Wigan have lost key players,

Wolves were dreadful.

Hull are imploding and second season enter games expecting lose, whereas like Burnley, they came up with a winning feeling.

Portsmouth. Rubbish. Total rubbish. Has he any money in January? I think squad morale will be so low nothing will save them

I would not rule out West Ham going down. Half way to administration. More sales needed to pay wages. Zola to last??? Upson gone in January.

[Plastic Head]

Bolton have cut their wage bill by £5M and are struggling.

Ring any bells?

[Tom]

Portsmouths awful form could be a blessing in disguise for them, I imagine Hart will go in the next week or two, he's taking them down for sure.

Hull are pants and wolves and Brum are also really poor, I see a lot of bad teams staying up by default.