[Archived] Summer Spending

[TimmyJimmy]

I remember posting a while back that IMO league position was a function of the wages bill. Each successive purchase costs more than the last (plus much higher wages too). All players wages are going up, even the poor ones. On balance keeping players by renewing their contracts is cheaper than replacing them.

If the total wages bill is capped then by definition, because poorer players are relatively cheaper than good ones, we will end up replacing OK players with poorer ones (because the total has to stay below the cap). Not only do we end up with inferior players but over time other teams wages bills grow higher than ours and we slip further and further down the league until the inevitable drop. Death by a thousand cuts.

Holding on to OK players like Andrews gives us breathing space, there are worse players out there you know (sorry Keith, don't mean to damn by faint praise but you know what I mean). If you think it's tough for us, with the best (highest wage) players 'red shifting' away from our ability to buy them, imagine what it's like for the newly promoted clubs who need to buy a completely new team to compete.

Everyone is going balls out at our club to keep us in the fight. The only shot we have of ever improving over mere survival is for what happens at most other clubs, investment from the owners. For us that's not going to happen with our current owners, we are at the end of the road there. Hopefully a reality check on the sale price and conditions precedent will happen sometime soon, but hey I've more chance of buying the club. In the meantime I suggest we support the club in words and deeds and enjoy the ride whilst it lasts (mental image - guy rodeo-riding the falling H Bomb in Dr Stangelove).

[Hughesy]

So, to sum up we have to sell our best players to break even and unless we do so each season the club will quickly be deep in debt and likely to follow Southampton, Charlton, Leeds and the rest into the lower divisions.

The worry is that assuming Samba is the next to go, who else at the club is a saleable asset ?

It also strikes me that with his ability to produce (relatively) successful teams on very limited resources Allardyce is the perfect man to manage Rovers at the present time.

Jim if you have seen it all before then you will realise that the next player will step up to the plate next and then become a saleable asset. Samba is next, there is then potential in Givet, Robbo, NZonzi (2 years +), Kalinic (2 years).

It is a sobering thought that even though we sold in excess of £32 million worth of talent we have not budged our overdraft.

Maybe next season will require us to cut our cloth accordingly and cut this wage bill, we have at least 28 players in the first team squad and we should have a maximum of 18/19 with 3 youth team players, it is the wage bill that is killing us.

The plan is that next years TV increase should allow us to stay at the £46m wage budget.

It does seam a shame that we have had to sell our first choice left back to balance the books, when we have the following dead weight in the squad who are all unlikely to get a game this year.

Admittedly only one of them is a Sam signing, and I am sure that they will have been trying to offload some or all of those players before Warnock was allowed to go.

13 Zurab Khizanishvili Defender

19 Aaron Doran Striker

20 Elrio Van Heerden Midfielder

21 Martin Olsson Defender

28 Phil Jones Defender

34 Frank Fielding Goalkeeper

Maceo Rigters Striker

I suppose that the other option is that the club increases it’s income by 20 Million a year, any bright sparks got any ideas on how we can do that without qualifying for the champions league.

The only things I ever though the club could do to increase income are.

1, Two big beer tents (One for home fans, one for away fans) open before and after games, Blues bar is just two small. I know from speaking to the old landlord in the Fernhurst that they took over 70k over the bar from the Celtic game, why should that money not go to the club.

2, Given how bad parking in Blackburn town centre is at the moment, use some of the car parking at Ewood as a park and ride for the town centre.

Neither of these ideas is going to generate 20 million a year, so does any one else have any suggestions, maybe we might come up with one that John Williams hasn’t thought of.

Some of them players you mention are young talent, that might be the next £5m saleable asset! We need to be looking at people like Zurab, Brown, Bunn, Treacy etc - we should be getting rid of those permanently.

I agree with the Beer tent idea though - Stick a massive beer tent on that land of the old church. £2.50 a can - Mega profit every game.

[joey_big_nose]

Yes I agree fully with that, he talks allot of sense and tries to be open with the supporters, which is a rarity in modern day football. I guess we're all thinking who is the next star to be sold to balance the books?

Simple fact is we don't have one, which is a real worry……

Don't agree with that. We do have assets:

Samba and Givet are both much better players than Warnock. Kalinic and Hoilett look like they could potentially generate big fees in future. NZonzi looks a talent. Robinson is worth more now than Brad was (mainly by the virtue of being young and English, not by being a better player).

Not sure we are much worse off on this front than we were two years ago. Then we only had Bentley, McCarthy, Cruz, Brad, Derbs and Warnock. McCarthy we thought was quality, Cruz was an unknown, Derbs promising, Brad a legend but old, Warnock looked decent but unspectacular.

We are always gambling.

[tcj_jones]

So unless we get new owners or results pick up massively and we get a top ten finish, next summer will presumably see the sales of Samba and Givet? There really aren't any other highly valuable assets on the books anymore and we need to sell just to break even, so I wouldn't be surprised to see both sold come the beginning of next season. What a truly depressing state of affairs

[joey_big_nose]

So unless we get new owners or results pick up massively and we get a top ten finish, next summer will presumably see the sales of Samba and Givet? There really aren't any other highly valuable assets on the books anymore and we need to sell just to break even, so I wouldn't be surprised to see both sold come the beginning of next season. What a truly depressing state of affairs

The one chink of light is that JW did say the increased TV money next year will take us into 'trading' again which means that we will, with the current wage bill, be able to retain what we have.

Issue is that then Pedersen et al will be wanting 30% pay rises etc in line with the new TV money so a year or two after that we will be back to square one.

New model has to be young hungry players. We simply can't compete on wages.

[Al]

I remember posting a while back that IMO league position was a function of the wages bill. Each successive purchase costs more than the last (plus much higher wages too). All players wages are going up, even the poor ones. On balance keeping players by renewing their contracts is cheaper than replacing them.

If the total wages bill is capped then by definition, because poorer players are relatively cheaper than good ones, we will end up replacing OK players with poorer ones (because the total has to stay below the cap). Not only do we end up with inferior players but over time other teams wages bills grow higher than ours and we slip further and further down the league until the inevitable drop. Death by a thousand cuts.

Holding on to OK players like Andrews gives us breathing space, there are worse players out there you know (sorry Keith, don't mean to damn by faint praise but you know what I mean). If you think it's tough for us, with the best (highest wage) players 'red shifting' away from our ability to buy them, imagine what it's like for the newly promoted clubs who need to buy a completely new team to compete.

Everyone is going balls out at our club to keep us in the fight. The only shot we have of ever improving over mere survival is for what happens at most other clubs, investment from the owners. For us that's not going to happen with our current owners, we are at the end of the road there. Hopefully a reality check on the sale price and conditions precedent will happen sometime soon, but hey I've more chance of buying the club. In the meantime I suggest we support the club in words and deeds and enjoy the ride whilst it lasts (mental image - guy rodeo-riding the falling H Bomb in Dr Stangelove).

It's not allowed to suggest new owners. Gordon the arrogant will tell you to get used to it.

[tcj_jones]

The one chink of light is that JW did say the increased TV money next year will take us into 'trading' again which means that we will, with the current wage bill, be able to retain what we have.

Issue is that then Pedersen et al will be wanting 30% pay rises etc in line with the new TV money so a year or two after that we will be back to square one.

New model has to be young hungry players. We simply can't compete on wages.

Ah yeah, fair cop. That really does make this season and next vital for the future stability of the club.

If Pedersen had the nerve to demand a pay rise off me, I'd pin him down with my foot on the back of his head, cut his hair with some rusty scissors and tell him to say over and over again 'I am not worthy, I am not worthy, I am not worthy'.

[den]

Jim if you have seen it all before then you will realise that the next player will step up to the plate next and then become a saleable asset. Samba is next, there is then potential in Givet, Robbo, NZonzi (2 years +), Kalinic (2 years).

Well what an exciting prospect that is Hughesy, - apart from which it's very naieve to think any club can survive in the Prem with that kind of policy.

[CAPT KAYOS]

New model has to be young hungry players. We simply can't compete on wages.

Something I mentioned a while ago (something along the lines JW also mentioned in the last set of accounts statement) - we need to be strong and stick our necks out to some degree and take the gamble.

Also need to go down the basic wage and better bonus for performance.

Its no surprise to me as this was forecast by many contributors to this board seasons back including myself which also included the issue re the gamble of younger potential players - the post by Paul only goes to convey what he has been preaching as many others (inc Theno in his own abstract way) and the problem with the game and the feelings of fans driving them away.

Obviously things are certainly coming to a head - especially at Rovers - something feared by many as mentioned an few seasons back.

Overall too many have been carried with and also got carried away with the Glitz that is the Premier League - its created a nasty monster - is it catch 22? - anybody's guess - the question has to be again though do we really want to be part of it?

[OscarRaven]

Well what an exciting prospect that is Hughesy, - apart from which it's very naieve to think any club can survive in the Prem with that kind of policy.

It's fantastic, developing players to sell on at a profit. It's like a proper little bussiness, involving BIG SUMS OF MONEY, a dam sight more exciting than targeting 13th and not being disapointed if we fail !!! All against a back drop of the club goes bust if (when) we get it wrong! Oh what fun.

The Premier league, you can't win it, you can barely compete in it, but isn't it great? All milk and honey.

Play for a draw and you can't lose

[tonyoz]

Den, I think that we have assembled a team more than capable of surviving. It is no fun selling your best players but like managers, they get delusions of grandeur and they want to taste the high life. It’s hard to keep hold of them when that happens………and I know you think that we should hold them to their contracts - but that rarely works in practice I think.

The policy of sell and replace with a new rare gem has worked pretty well in recent times:

Bellamy – McCarthy – Santa Cruz – Kalinic

Brad - Robinson

Neill - Warnock – Chimbonda (loosely speaking)

Bentley - errrrr……….well you can’t win ‘em all!

[tonyoz]

Hence the massive damage caused by the relatively easy (at least on the face of it) exit of Mark Hughes. He and his team were virtually self funding.

I know - but he was intent on leaving whatever. His heart was set on a shot at the Champions League and he needed the big budget to achieve it.

[den]

Den, I think that we have assembled a team more than capable of surviving. It is no fun selling your best players but like managers, they get delusions of grandeur and they want to taste the high life. It’s hard to keep hold of them when that happens………and I know you think that we should hold them to their contracts - but that rarely works in practice I think.

The policy of sell and replace with a new rare gem has worked pretty well in recent times:

Bellamy – McCarthy – Santa Cruz – Kalinic

Brad - Robinson

Neill - Warnock – Chimbonda (loosely speaking)

Bentley - errrrr……….well you can’t win ‘em all!

I think there are times when we should deny the best players a move tony. I don't believe that we should hold all our best players to a contract. Some people disagree, I understand that, - but it shouldn't be a policy. Keep your best players whenever it's possible and financially viable.

Honestly though, selling your best players with the belief that you can replace them with younger, or cheaper lads is suicide. It might be impossible to do otherwise, but I can't accept it's a way forward. There is only ONE way that will take you, and that's down through all the divisions, one at a time. You want evidence? The evidence is in our history - relegation through the divisions has always been the result of that kind of transfer dealing.

[joey_big_nose]

I think there are times when we should deny the best players a move tony. I don't believe that we should hold all our best players to a contract. Some people disagree, I understand that, - but it shouldn't be a policy. Keep your best players whenever it's possible and financially viable.

The two times in recent history when we have held onto our best players against their will they have been rubbish for us immediately afterwards - Cruz and McCarthy.

Can you think of anyone who has been retained in this league and gone on to have a decent season following the denial of the move?

Well what an exciting prospect that is Hughesy, - apart from which it's very naieve to think any club can survive in the Prem with that kind of policy.

It's not our choice though is it? You seem to be suggesting that JW has an alternative. What is it?

[den]

It's not our choice though is it? You seem to be suggesting that JW has an alternative. What is it?

Grrrr.

Where's the quote from this post where I say there's an alternative JBN?

Is it so difficult to understand what I'm trying to say?

[joey_big_nose]

Grrrr.

Where's the quote from this post where I say there's an alternative JBN?

Is it so difficult to understand what I'm trying to say?

Oh, I thought it was a criticism of the policy. So it was more sort of an existential moan about the situation?

To be fair the position we are is still better to where Burnley are, or about 85 or so clubs in the Football League. It depends what context you look at it.

[den]

Oh, I thought it was a criticism of the policy. So it was more sort of an existential moan about the situation?

No, it wasn't a moan. It was a reply to Hughesy, who was saying that we can continue to sell top players and replace them, with continued success.

If you can't follow what's going on, try playing isnooker, or something like that.

[Gav]

Don't agree with that. We do have assets:

Samba and Givet are both much better players than Warnock. Kalinic and Hoilett look like they could potentially generate big fees in future. NZonzi looks a talent. Robinson is worth more now than Brad was (mainly by the virtue of being young and English, not by being a better player).

Not sure we are much worse off on this front than we were two years ago. Then we only had Bentley, McCarthy, Cruz, Brad, Derbs and Warnock. McCarthy we thought was quality, Cruz was an unknown, Derbs promising, Brad a legend but old, Warnock looked decent but unspectacular.

We are always gambling.

I think you'll find we can't sell a bentley or a Santa Cruz for big bucks, we'd need to sell several of the first team to meet the demands gong forward, thats a real worry.

How you can say Hoilett and Kilinic could generate big fees in future is beyond me, I agree they could, but after only a couple of games that statement is laughable.

Grabbi looked ok for a couple of games

[tonyoz]

I think there are times when we should deny the best players a move tony. I don't believe that we should hold all our best players to a contract. Some people disagree, I understand that, - but it shouldn't be a policy. Keep your best players whenever it's possible and financially viable.

Yes, I don't disagree with any of that fundamentally. I really thought we should have kept Brad at the time but gradually I saw that it wasn't going to be and resigned myself to him leaving. I know I might be a bit old-fashioned (or naive maybe) in this but once a player does a "Bentley" on live TV or a "Roque" on the sly.........he loses his hero status with me and I won't cry to see him go.

Bellamy, for me, was the biggest blow................he's still got the magic too!

[TimmyJimmy]

The Premier league, you can't win it, you can barely compete in it, but isn't it great?

That sir is the most insightful comment on the EPL I've read in a long while.

It also strikes me that whilst one club alone cannot hold players to their contracts, collectively they can. Simple solution - no transfer of players in contract until their last year (for the benefit of a transfer fee). Drive the market towards short term contracts that pay lower wages and then reward the signing of longer contracts with higher wages. Once the player has weighed up his options and signed then he's made his bed so he has to get on and lay on it. There's no 'out'.

Drives all the right behaviours on all parties and it has the backing of the law. It returns the contract situation to one that we all have to deal with everyday - a choice between risk versus reward. Right now players can't lose and their agents encourage transfers for the regular kick back, sorry, I meant commission didn't I...

[Hughesy]

Well what an exciting prospect that is Hughesy, - apart from which it's very naieve to think any club can survive in the Prem with that kind of policy.

I know what your saying - but clubs like ours have to look to buy players/ develop and move forward. If it means selling one or 2 then so be it. Re-invest that money. If our academy did its job then we wouldnt be in such a dodgy position. Thats the key!!

What would you rather happened? We go down and become a yo-yo club but can never actually compete for top 10 in the prem?

Academy & Excellent scouting system are the only way forward........... Simples

[thenodrog]

I know - but he was intent on leaving whatever. His heart was set on a shot at the Champions League and he needed the big budget to achieve it.

I don't buy that. Taking the chelsea issue out of the equation he went to City when it had become clear that Shinawatra's bunce was all just hot air. He never realised that he'd be pimping for the mega bucks Arabs within a few short months.

No, it wasn't a moan. It was a reply to Hughesy, who was saying that we can continue to sell top players and replace them, with continued success.

We have no option Den. We have to make the best of the hand that we are left with post Jack. It's not selling our best players thats important it's having as good or better replacements lined up before they leave. The more that we enhance our reputatiuon as Kingmakers then better we will be.

[MCMC1875]

It does seam a shame that we have had to sell our first choice left back to balance the books, when we have the following dead weight in the squad who are all unlikely to get a game this year.

Admittedly only one of them is a Sam signing, and I am sure that they will have been trying to offload some or all of those players before Warnock was allowed to go.

13 Zurab Khizanishvili Defender

19 Aaron Doran Striker

20 Elrio Van Heerden Midfielder

21 Martin Olsson Defender

28 Phil Jones Defender

34 Frank Fielding Goalkeeper

Maceo Rigters Striker

I suppose that the other option is that the club increases it’s income by 20 Million a year, any bright sparks got any ideas on how we can do that without qualifying for the champions league.

The only things I ever though the club could do to increase income are.

1, Two big beer tents (One for home fans, one for away fans) open before and after games, Blues bar is just two small. I know from speaking to the old landlord in the Fernhurst that they took over 70k over the bar from the Celtic game, why should that money not go to the club.

2, Given how bad parking in Blackburn town centre is at the moment, use some of the car parking at Ewood as a park and ride for the town centre.

Neither of these ideas is going to generate 20 million a year, so does any one else have any suggestions, maybe we might come up with one that John Williams hasn’t thought of.

Beer tents outside the stands - what a crackin idea!

If Thwaites can get away with it at The Fernhurst there must be a way.

And it would relieve the claustrophobic cattle markets under the stands - before the match anyway.

[Blackburn Ender]

Paul's post above is spot on.

The PL chairmen, including John Williams (albeit reluctantly), have p*ssed away billions of OUR money on mind-bogglingly extravagant wages for players.

At what point was it decided and agreed by all of them that £30,000 per week and more is an acceptable sum to pay a squad player?

Surely JW's wishful thinking about grabbing the next slice of TV cash is also flawed, because if the TV income rises so will players wage demands and transfer fees and the men who own/run the clubs will simply acquiesce as they have always done.

Players and agents are laughing all the way to the bank. It's the biggest financial giveaway in the history of the world.

[thenodrog]

Beer tents outside the stands - what a crackin idea!

Decent selection of beers sold at normal prices, served quickly and efficiently with no plastic cards accepted in the present facilities might be a start.