[Archived] Rovers Might Have Been Sold?

[chaddyrovers]

Any news about the arab taking over rovers Nicko?????

[nicko]

There's life on Mars? You should definitely write that one up

Surreal but I think pretty accurate, no? I wasn't privy to every conversation that happened but think this is a reasonably accurate summary of things. Although my non-disclosure has expired I am trying not to betray any actual confidences - leave that to the papers to do but I have tried to be as accurate as possible here.

It's way too accurate.

Life on Mars being a reference to the TV show where you think you have been sent back in time...and have no idea what is going on.

[OJRovers]

With hindsight it seems that none of the other investors/interested parties turned out to have the required funds or were similarly unwilling to meet the valuation at the time which was pretty much as widely reported - around an 90million commitment in total consisting of equity to buy the club, inheritance/transfer of debt from the club itself to the buyer, and a multi-year commitment to invest more in to the club/team plus an understanding to keep on certain personnel and not sell the "prime assets" - i.e. Ewood and Brockall. Williams, Plainfield and the club agreed on all aspects except the actual price of the club - Plainfield at the time had over 6billion in assets, and has only grown since.

With the hindsight of the time since DW's bid failed this sounds a bit hypocritical of the Trust, who have sold pretty much everything of value possible (Freidel, Bentley, RSC, Warnock) and invested the bare minimum.

If the Trust's direction is purely to maximise wealth for the family how long til Brockhall gets made into a prime location housing estate??

[rivercider]

It's way too accurate.

Life on Mars being a reference to the TV show where you think you have been sent back in time...and have no idea what is going on.

I answered the phone once when you called Mr. Nixon (you're Scottish, correct?), so I think you'll realise it is accurate because I was right there "in the room" at the time when these things were going on.

My being able to post about them now is more related to expiring Non-Disclosure agreements than any attempt to rake over old ground, but I have been on here for a year or so and seen many inaccurate accounts or assertions by people and cringed at the self-important "I know more than you" stance some took while spouting utter nonsense. Since some of the inaccuracies resurfaced in this thread and since my NDA ran out last Friday, I thought it was time to set some things straight.

Oh, and apparently the Arabs are actually Israelis, no?

[chaddyrovers]

.

Oh, and apparently the Arabs are actually Israelis, no?

Is this true Nicko?????

do you know who these people are rivercider? please name if you do!!!

[Balwer]

rivercider, this is a very fascinating story and as someone who works for an asset management firm I am exceedingly intrigued as what sort of valuation is used when buying a football club in a non-LBO/IPO situation. Perhaps a DCF since based on my earlier posts leverage doesn't seem to stack up? Also would the deal have been a JV between Plainfield and Dan Williams? I completely understand why the deal would have fallen through on valuation, not to mention the fact that Plainfield is beholden to its own investors in terms of getting a return on their capital outlay.

Could you perhaps shed any light on EBITDA, revenue, capex, IRR, etc off the top of your head? If you don't want to make it public then I would gladly accept a PM.

I sympathise regarding the heady investment days of a couple of years ago, so many deals I look at in hindsight now and wonder how on earth an Investment Committee could agree to.

[Amo]

Any chance of an 11 o'clocker, rivercider?

[den]

Any chance of an 11 o'clocker, rivercider?

[rivercider]

To try and answer 3 in 1.

First of all, I just know that recently an Israeli-based group had contacted some people involved way back when to get their insight, and were politely told "not really something we'd comment on" so presumed from that "Middle Eastern" might have been taken out of context.

Secondly, the view that Plainfield took was that this represented a chance for steady growth over a 5-year period of 15-20% in value, given that the club owned land (Brockall) that would appreciate - oh how we missed that particular storm - and there was potential for development in and around Ewood. The idea was to develop the Riverside Stand in to a three tier (to match the ground) multi-use facility with a similar seating capacity but increased revenue potential from the other uses (retail, office, leisure were all considered). Oh and through a friend of either Plainfield or I think maybe even Williams, there was a preliminary discussion with Tescos about them buying part of the car part behind the away end to build a Tesco Express maybe (not sure if I have the brand right, we don't have Tescos here but I think I am right in saying Williams knew a guy who was best friends with Lord McLauren/McLaurrin???)

Then there was the matter of the US TV rights coming up, of the development of African, US and Asian academies for the club - Williams D had several interests and connections in African and US football - and to try to use the large suite facilities for more than just match days - weddings (especially some non-Christian weddings which are traditionally large affairs requiring big facilities), conferences etc. The investment group were also looking at bringing over some of their other businesses to the area to stimulate jobs and growth in Blackburn and around which could have had a knock-on effect. On a DCF (discounted cash flow, means anticipated money adjusted for risk) or NPV (means Net Present Value, figuring out how much future income is worth today adjusted for interest/inflation costs) basis it is impossible to value an entity like this, what was intriguing was the potential for steady growth, a pretty solid asset base, some debt reduction and, for Plainfield, the chance to scale out of our investment at a profit by selling more and more of the club to Williams and/or other similarly minded people over time. Certainly EBITDA (which is Earnings before Interest, Tax, Depreciation or Ammortization - basically net revenues) is useless since the EBITDA of a club is extremely low if you strip out the one-off monies for sale of players. No matter what multiple you attach you're not getting anywhere near 25mm

As for an 11 o'clocker, it's 4-35pm here and the first nice weekend of the year is approaching and the lovely business ladies in Bryant Park are starting their first outdoor drinking of the spring, so chances of my logging on here at 7pm this evening local time....not high.

Besides, other than what I've shared already, I know very little so you're best off sticking with Nixon (is that a bumper sticker in the making there?).

[Ricky]

Wow, I've just sat and read through the last couple of pages. Thanks to rivercider for coming on and clearing up a few things. is the first time Nicko's ever been gobsmacked lol.

A very very interesting read indeed. And who else is going to be looking out for a wealthy looking, 6 foot 4, ginger bloke with a cap on this sunday??

[rivercider]

Wow, I've just sat and read through the last couple of pages. Thanks to rivercider for coming on and clearing up a few things. is the first time Nicko's ever been gobsmacked lol.

A very very interesting read indeed. And who else is going to be looking out for a wealthy looking, 6 foot 4, ginger bloke with a cap on this sunday??

May 1st, Arsenal game, there's a small group of ex-Plainfielders coming with, sort of a re-union of what would have been our most fun investment had it happened.

Hope the posts I made were open, forthright and help re-assure that John Williams is an honest man, the club is well run and able to both keep genuinely interested parties engaged professionally and also maintain privacy and decorum, and that not every American financial institution is entirely made up off asset stripping assholes (or arseholes as I am now inclined to say) looking for either a quick buck or a bail out. Even those just involved on the periphery have developed genuine affections for Rovers - we see you as the Oakland Athletics of England (look it up, it's a compliment though trust me ) and there was no intent at any time to do harm to the club on this side or that of the trustees - Ewood, Brockall were safe, indeed only development planned was at the ground to improve it - and there would have been limited funds to strengthen the actual team, nothing Chelsea/Man City-esque, as stated at the time, but enough.

Forever yours in Rovers (yes, we really did sign our e-mails that way back then)

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

Secondly, the view that Plainfield took was that this represented a chance for steady growth over a 5-year period of 15-20% in value, given that the club owned land (Brockall) that would appreciate - oh how we missed that particular storm - and there was potential for development in and around Ewood. The idea was to develop the Riverside Stand in to a three tier (to match the ground) multi-use facility with a similar seating capacity but increased revenue potential from the other uses (retail, office, leisure were all considered). Oh and through a friend of either Plainfield or I think maybe even Williams, there was a preliminary discussion with Tescos about them buying part of the car part behind the away end to build a Tesco Express maybe (not sure if I have the brand right, we don't have Tescos here but I think I am right in saying Williams knew a guy who was best friends with Lord McLauren/McLaurrin???)

Then there was the matter of the US TV rights coming up, of the development of African, US and Asian academies for the club - Williams D had several interests and connections in African and US football - and to try to use the large suite facilities for more than just match days - weddings (especially some non-Christian weddings which are traditionally large affairs requiring big facilities), conferences etc. The investment group were also looking at bringing over some of their other businesses to the area to stimulate jobs and growth in Blackburn and around which could have had a knock-on effect.

My God ....what an opportunity missed!

[broadsword]

If so, don't go up to him and insult him.

Eeek, beginning to regret a few of the things I said.

Come back Dan Williams, all is forgiven!

Seems a shame we missed out for the sake of Alan Shearer's transfer fee.

[rivercider]

Oh and a few final things perhaps you can help me with. Thanks to the trips to Lancashire by Justin, the interactions with Walter Hubert, and having a Lancastrian (sp?) around our office regularly, a few new terms were learned that I think we have some of, but need help with others.

A "butty" - sandwich?

A "dingle" - a fan of Burnley we know but please explain. Over in the US a dingle is a piece of ###### that sticks to your ass hairs. Maybe it is just that simple now I think of it.

A "blower" - help, we're clueless to this day

A "plastic" - similarly, help.

A "bellend" - an insult we presume since it was directed at a referee (in the Director's Box apparently, by DW and to the mild shock of the elderly couple sat behind) during the West Ham game after the official allowed what even this Yank could see was a very dubious goal shortly after having given a penalty, but is that the right term?

Any help would be appreciated, especially since a return trip is planned shortly.

[Balwer]

Thanks for the reply rivercider and confirming many of my suspicions about the traditional valuation models not working. Sounds like the additional revenue streams could have done nicely in supplementing the core ones. It's a shame we will never know what might have been. Would have also been interesting to see what the basis for Rothschilds valuation was too. Oh well, if nothing else my opinion of Dan Williams has changed a fair bit tonight.

Oh and as for your questions, I am an Australian so I don't feel it's proper for me to answer them for you, I will let one of the locals do so.

[broadsword]

Butty is a sandwich, yes.

A dingle - the Dingle family in a rural-set soap opera set in Yorkshire are a set of welly-wearing ne'er-do-wells, a andy metaphor for our friends in claret and blue.

The blower is the 'phone - this is more of a southern English expression.

A plastic is someone who melts away when the heat is on. A plastic fan is someone who shows up when times are good but nowhere to be seen otherwise. "Plastic" was probably used in this sense.

"Bell-end" is the head of your penis!

Dingle family: http://www.itv.com/Soaps/emmerdale/galleries/Emmerdalepicturespecials/TheDingleFamily/default.html

[rivercider]

Butty is a sandwich, yes.

A dingle - the Dingle family in a rural-set soap opera set in Yorkshire are a set of welly-wearing ne'er-do-wells, a andy metaphor for our friends in claret and blue.

The blower is the 'phone - this is more of a southern English expression.

A plastic is someone who melts away when the heat is on. A plastic fan is someone who shows up when times are good but nowhere to be seen otherwise. "Plastic" was probably used in this sense.

"Bell-end" is the head of your penis!

You sir, are officially my hero. As someone sent out for "butties" once during a meeting, I just took my chances and glad I was right (thought so when no-one complained).

I am not sure what "welly-wearing" means but my cision of Burnley fans has gone from them being small turd remnants to a bunch of Yorkshire scamps.

The phone thing now makes sense. That was as much from Snatch as the BRFC deal, but thanks anyway.

Plastic - now makes sense, THANK YOU, that one totally had me stumped.

And finally now I see why the old folks didn't approve of such a term, even if the referee completely blew that call.

Thanks for the reply rivercider and confirming many of my suspicions about the traditional valuation models not working. Sounds like the additional revenue streams could have done nicely in supplementing the core ones. It's a shame we will never know what might have been. Would have also been interesting to see what the basis for Rothschilds valuation was too. Oh well, if nothing else my opinion of Dan Williams has changed a fair bit tonight.

Oh and as for your questions, I am an Australian so I don't feel it's proper for me to answer them for you, I will let one of the locals do so.

Rothschilds valuation was based on the same multiple of EBITDA that Villa had sold for and also on net asset value plus DCF.

PM me if you want to get too finance-geeky about this, you obviously know your marbles but this is probably not the place.

Forever yours in Rovers (oh the memories!)

PS. Hopefully your opinion of Plainfield might improve a touch too.....seriously they took great pains to learn the history of Rovers and to respect that where possible. Not saying all Hedge Funders are wonderful people, nor that as a business it is philanthropic or soulful, but in this particular instance the firm went above and beyond to respect the standing of the Club in the community - even to the point when after a dinner in town, there was a chance encounter with a Walker family member that was a/ never disclosed and b/ involved a large dinner and wine check being discretely paid.

[broadsword]

Wellies = welly boots = wellington boots

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Wellington_boot

See also: welly throwing -

[EwoodGlory]

Oh, and apparently the Arabs are actually Israelis, no?

Is this true Nicko?????

do you know who these people are rivercider? please name if you do!!!

They do not want the publicity, so if named it will most likely end any possible deal. Don't want another Plainfield scenario.

So best to keep quiet, if possible.

[allanncd]

Villa was sold for £77m so I don't know how an EBITDA on Rovers earnings would have got to a value of £50m. It all depends on the quality of the earnings figures - and if anyone thinks Rovers are within a million miles of Villa's earnings potential - dream on. I said at the time of the Williams bid that the Trustees were asking far too much - even £35m was very generous.That was then - now it is even lower Think £20m as an enterprise value and then take off the debt. I value companies for a living including expert witness valuations and having seen Rovers accounts I can only say a £50m figure was pure moonshine. Now the Trustees can kick themselves or Rothschilds for being badly advised.

[broadsword]

Does anyone know what our current debt figure actually is (roughly)?

[EwoodGlory]

Does anyone know what our current debt figure actually is (roughly)?

£20m

[broadsword]

So the trust should give the club away for free - interesting concept. Maybe sell it for a symbolic pound?

[Balwer]

I would hazard a guess that if the debt is 20m and if the Earnings Before Interest, Tax, Depreciation and Amortisation is really only around the 3m mark annually then yes, there would barely be any equity value. Sad but true and like allan says, 50m is just crazy if you are using the valuation model that rivercider has confirmed Rothschilds were using at the time.

[ewoodpo]

Nicko is this really you posting ?