[Archived] Election

[meerkat]

Anyone but Tory for me.

[philipl]

Just read through this morning's papers and they are mostly about Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems and a bit about Cameron and the Tories.

Has the Labour Party simply given up?

It seems like we are at risk of five years of Tory marketing bs running the country through Labour default if Clegg doesn't up his game for one more big push.

[philipl]

Cameron's speech writer argues for a Lib-Con deal.

[thenodrog]

Anyone but Tory for me.

You've obviously put a lot of thought into that meerkat. Did a Tory once run over your cat or something?

Just read through this morning's papers and they are mostly about Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems and a bit about Cameron and the Tories.

Has the Labour Party simply given up?

It seems like we are at risk of five years of Tory marketing bs running the country through Labour default if Clegg doesn't up his game for one more big push.

What on earths that? I've not heard that phrase before. Is it a new version of Spin Doctoring?

[jim mk2]

Has the Labour Party simply given up?

I think they have. Tory posters were present even in some former mining villages in Derbyshire I visited last week which seems hardly credible considering the damage the Tories inflicted on the area 25 years ago. Labour's campaign has been lacklustre to say the least which is disappointing considering there is no real enthusiasm for Cameron or his party. Labour have missed a trick with their publicity poster campaign - large pictures of Thatcher plus some reminders of the damage her government did to Britain when the Tories were last in power would have been enough to sway any doubting voters.

Anyone but Tory for me.

Good lad - many people feel the same way.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Vote Tory ???????? It'd be like supporting Burnley! This isn't a time for apprentices learning as they go along. Clegg reminds me of a head boy from a minor public school. Hang on isn't that what he was ?

[grizfoot]

I think they have. Tory posters were present even in some former mining villages in Derbyshire I visited last week which seems hardly credible considering the damage the Tories inflicted on the area 25 years ago. Labour's campaign has been lacklustre to say the least which is disappointing considering there is no real enthusiasm for Cameron or his party. Labour have missed a trick with their publicity poster campaign - large pictures of Thatcher plus some reminders of the damage her government did to Britain when the Tories were last in power would have been enough to sway any doubting voters.

Something like this maybe:

[American]

Vote Tory ???????? It'd be like supporting Burnley!

And this shows exactly what is wrong with politics. It's not about what's best for the country, or even considering all options, it's about my team beating your team.

The posts from all sides on this thread are proof, especially the paperboy.

[broadsword]

You can't put too much faith in polls, but one opinion poll this morning had the Libs dropping to 23%, I think that's out of kilter with the other ones though.

EDIT: Here we go http://www.cradlebay.co.uk/index.php/2010/04/25/latest-opinion-polls-25-april/

I wonder to what extent the polls become a self-fulfilling prophecy. If people start to see the Libs go back down to the mid-twenties, they'll start to wonder if there's a point in voting for them. There's definitely scope there for a bit of manipulation by a newpaper that has a preference for a certain party.

In any case, it's not the best barometer of what will happen on May 6th, what's more to the point is how voting intentions in the marginals are shaping up. If people who are flocking to the Lib Dems are in constituencies where they already hold a majority, or where another party holds a substantial majority and there's not enough swinging to Libs to make a difference, then it's not really of any consequence.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

And this shows exactly what is wrong with politics. It's not about what's best for the country, or even considering all options, it's about my team beating your team.

The posts from all sides on this thread are proof, especially the paperboy.

When have the Tories ever been what's best for the country ?

[jim mk2]

Vote Tory ???????? It'd be like supporting Burnley!

Clegg or Cameron as PM is the political equivalent of Paul Ince as manager of BRFC and likely to end in the same disaster. Something septic tanks wouldn't undersatnd.

[Ewood and I Would]

American has a fair point and I bet it's a similar situation in the States.

But even so, as what bazza would call a 'young university brainwashed leftist' who desires progression not regression, I can't see how anybody can warm to the Conservatives policies. Their view and attitude on Europe is seriously startling IMO. It's probably not a popular thing to say amongst Brits but globalisation is the best thing that could ever happen to us as well as the world. We need to stay in touch with the world and work with other nations to help our economy and I think people undervalue our involvement in Europe.

It's funny because you get people saying that all the parties are the same nowadays. I initially thought Cameron is the leader-type but when you see the policies it really is very right-ist. But as we all know, Brits (and probably most western countries) love this kind of talk. The xenophobes love it and conveniently forget that Europe is economically stronger as a whole than the USA. If we ain't in it then we will suffer, economically.

Are you sure you're not confusing the Conservative Party with UKIP?

[philipl]

I see the Times are massively misrepresenting Clegg's interview on the Andrew Marr show this morning.

Murdoch is totally rattled now.

[thenodrog]

When have the Tories ever been what's best for the country ?

1979 obviously Tyrone. Labour was just a puppet of the unions. A situation which in a democracy should never ever have been allowed to happen.

American cites your stupidity and you immediately make a post which proves him bang on right.

[Hughesy]

[Hughesy]

What do you see in the clouds & ash?

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

1979 obviously Tyrone. Labour was just a puppet of the unions. A situation which in a democracy should never ever have been allowed to happen.

American cites your stupidity and you immediately make a post which proves him bang on right.

Yeh, Manufacturing in this country has never recovered ( and probably never will) after "The Iron Idiot" rode to our rescue in 1979. Please don't reply to this as I don't want to debate anything with you. Just move along matey.

[John]

Gordon Brown has defended his handling of the economy, after criticism from an angry phone-in caller.

[berkshireblue]

Clegg or Cameron as PM is the political equivalent of Paul Ince as manager of BRFC and likely to end in the same disaster. Something septic tanks wouldn't undersatnd.

Usual rubbish Jim...surprsied you have not suggested Derek Hatton or John Prescott, as you bleat the same bile

[broadsword]

Gordon Brown is most definitely responsible for the deficit we now have.

He devised the regulatory system, the buck stops with him. The US toppled the first domino, but if our banking system had been more robust, rather than lending money that it didn't have, we wouldn't have seen the financial system topple like it did.

I'm sick and tired of America being blamed, Bill Clinton didn't tell Brown to use the US as his model, he took it of his own accord.

Even more ridiculous is blaming the banks for telling him they only needed light regulation, surely Brown should be making his own decisions and not be told how to prevent banks misbehaving by the banks themselves. Mad.

[philipl]

This post for anyone planning on making money at the bookies from the election.

The American statistician Nate Silver was stunningly accurate in calling the US Presidentials and has now had a look at the UK General Election and quite rightly calls out the "uniform swing" projection for what it is- a load of rubbish. But every media analyst in the UK is using it.

This is Nate Silver's analysis

He sets up a number of scenarios but I think the last two are the most interesting.

I believe all the real evidence is pointing to an impending Labour total collapse. Brown is playing to the public every bit as badly as I anticipated he would and Thursday's economics leaders' debate which he believes will be his vindication will see him skewered by public opinion after which the barely disguised internal war in the Labour party will break to the surface. At that point, the Tory press will smell not only blood but the chance to catapult Dave into number 10 and will mercilessly complete the job on the twitching cadavre.

This is the result:

My guess is the Lib Dems will hoover up their target seats from Labour and pick up seats outside their target zone such as the one I am in where Labour are completely on the ropes from the Lib Dem assault. Meanwhilst the Tories will snatch not only their 80 target seats from Labour but also the 20 they have just added to their target list which will rid us of the odious Ed Balls totally changing the dynamic should Labour be around to have any say in the next Government line-up.

The crunch is going to be the Lib Dems defending ALL their seats against Tory challengers AND winning as many as possible of their winnable list FROM the Tories- those 30 or so seats where the Tories are defending against strong Lib Dem challengers are where the fate of this General Election lies.

Finally here is an interesting one.

If the Lib Dems edge up from 30%/33% (current polls) to 36%, under Nate Silver's model they become the largest single party in the new Parliament by a big margin whereas the uniform swing model projects the LDs not picking up seats in any numbers until they get to 38% share of the vote (then it goes berserk and the other two get wiped by Lib Dems at 41% which is just as ridiiculous).

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

My gut feeling says even if the Labour Party had a combination of Jack Kennedy and Nelson Mandela standing as leader they'd get a kicking. It's a bit like 1997, the electorate have had enough, no matter what it may lead to they want changes. I hope I'm wrong but If I'm not hold onto your hats. Anybody in the public sector- start praying now !

[only2garners]

That's an interesting take on the election but I suspect your man is overestimating the level of change that might happen. There is another scenario in the article based on the average poll at the time the article was written (the polls are a bit closer right now), which roughly gives 300 to the Tories, 200 to Labour and 100 to the Lib Dems, but still a hung parliament. I think the outcome will be somewhere between this and the first outcome you have copied Phil.

There are two balancing effects widely believed to be played out in UK elections, namely that polls routinely underestimate the strength of Conservative support and that there is a late swing back towards the incumbent party. The one area not considered is the effect of the new young vote, which some evidence suggests has been energised to vote by the economic situation, the expenses scandal and the leaders' debates, and which may well drive them to the Lib Dems in quite big numbers. Finally, there is a very significant postal vote these days and they are voting right now, so this week's debate will be too late to effect that vote. For example 30% of the vote in Chorley is postal - a bellweather marginal which usually goes with the winning party.

My best guess right now is a hung parliament with the Tories as the largest party.

[arachnica]

This post for anyone planning on making money at the bookies from the election.

The American statistician Nate Silver was stunningly accurate in calling the US Presidentials and has now had a look at the UK General Election and quite rightly calls out the "uniform swing" projection for what it is- a load of rubbish. But every media analyst in the UK is using it.

This is Nate Silver's analysis

He sets up a number of scenarios but I think the last two are the most interesting.

I believe all the real evidence is pointing to an impending Labour total collapse. Brown is playing to the public every bit as badly as I anticipated he would and Thursday's economics leaders' debate which he believes will be his vindication will see him skewered by public opinion after which the barely disguised internal war in the Labour party will break to the surface. At that point, the Tory press will smell not only blood but the chance to catapult Dave into number 10 and will mercilessly complete the job on the twitching cadavre.

This is the result:

My guess is the Lib Dems will hoover up their target seats from Labour and pick up seats outside their target zone such as the one I am in where Labour are completely on the ropes from the Lib Dem assault. Meanwhilst the Tories will snatch not only their 80 target seats from Labour but also the 20 they have just added to their target list which will rid us of the odious Ed Balls totally changing the dynamic should Labour be around to have any say in the next Government line-up.

The crunch is going to be the Lib Dems defending ALL their seats against Tory challengers AND winning as many as possible of their winnable list FROM the Tories- those 30 or so seats where the Tories are defending against strong Lib Dem challengers are where the fate of this General Election lies.

Finally here is an interesting one.

If the Lib Dems edge up from 30%/33% (current polls) to 36%, under Nate Silver's model they become the largest single party in the new Parliament by a big margin whereas the uniform swing model projects the LDs not picking up seats in any numbers until they get to 38% share of the vote (then it goes berserk and the other two get wiped by Lib Dems at 41% which is just as ridiiculous).

That's really interesting. Would love to know if the lib dems would be as keen on PR if they do get up to 36%!

[jim mk2]

Anybody in the public sector- start praying now !

The Tory knives are being sharpened already and the North will suffer again just like it did in the 1980s. It's not over by a long way however and the public continues to have grave doubts about Cameron. Labour are still capable of turning back the evil blue tide. A hung parliament is probably the least desirable or all outcomes in that it could possibly lead to a sterling crisis and tip the economy back into recession.