[Archived] Rovers Takeover

[dave birch]

- quantitative easing has resulted in banks taking the cash generated by the printing presses of western governments and sticking it on bets in emerging markets. There is a completely unsustainable bubble in various stock markets as the Venky's share price track posted by our Australian friends show in the chart they posted.

- that has two critical impacts on Rovers- even the most sober business person feels rich and a world warrior when share prices quadruple in short order- is this the reason why BRFC and chickens are seen as a strategic fit?

- and will the publicly held Venky's be able to sustain the rationale for putting money into Rovers when the emerging market stock bubble goes pop?

- finally there is Ali Syed. The donations to the Cathedral and Nightsafe would be in keeping with his philanthropy and be a lovely parting/farewell gift from his involvement in Blackburn. On the other hand, he and his team of advisors might be extremely determined to win and are not going to be beaten by a chicken... Your guess is as good as mine on what they will do next.

The thing that concerns me, Philip, is, any stock on any Bourse that rise so quickly has to explain themselves to the satisfaction of the Bourse. Stock don't rise that quickly without there being a problem, and that, I'll bet , is someone working the deal.

If the bubble goes, "pop", what happens to BRFC?

Finally, there is Ali Syed.

I'll say no more, but remain cautiously optimistic

[BPF]

Phew.

This whole thing is much bigger than I thought.

Just found out how two of the pieces click together.

Some situation ahead here.

Got to get on with the day job.

That's far worse than my 'reveals' ever were!

[Ricky]

That doesn't sound good Alan.

I'm guessing we should be prepared for some bad news in the paper tomorrow.

[roversmum]

Blimey! Good spot you two! Who would ever have thought good old Rovers would be the subject of industrial espionage!

Haha! Wonder ... if Ali Syed had invested in VH?

Too much time, obviously, must get a grip. Off for breakfast.

[nicko]

That doesn't sound good Alan.

I'm guessing we should be prepared for some bad news in the paper tomorrow.

Not at all.

I'm not saying good or bad because that is in the eye of the beholder - and best judged after a period of time.

However I could not figure out 'why' with VH from the word go...I now know why.

The 'who' still does not mean much, but the make-up of the team and its partners are quite interesting to say the least.

Above all, there is a football plan to this which interests me more than the financials.

Leave it with me for now.

[dave birch]

Haha! Wonder ... if Ali Syed had invested in VH?

Too much time, obviously, must get a grip. Off for breakfast.

That had crossed my mind too, mum. Two pieces of a jigsaw?

Not at all.

Above all, there is a football plan to this which interests me more than the financials.

Leave it with me for now.

4-4-2 or 3-4-3?

[nicko]

Haha! Wonder ... if Ali Syed had invested in VH?

Too much time, obviously, must get a grip. Off for breakfast.

Not right, but an understandable guess.

[chaddyrovers]

Not at all.

I'm not saying good or bad because that is in the eye of the beholder - and best judged after a period of time.

However I could not figure out 'why' with VH from the word go...I now know why.

The 'who' still does not mean much, but the make-up of the team and its partners are quite interesting to say the least.

Above all, there is a football plan to this which interests me more than the financials.

Leave it with me for now.

interesting news Nicko. Hope they is a update tonight or a piece in the mirror or sunday people?

[Sandiway Blue]

Not at all.

I'm not saying good or bad because that is in the eye of the beholder - and best judged after a period of time.

However I could not figure out 'why' with VH from the word go...I now know why.

The 'who' still does not mean much, but the make-up of the team and its partners are quite interesting to say the least.

Above all, there is a football plan to this which interests me more than the financials.

Leave it with me for now.

Well at least `the reason why` doesn`t seem to be suspicious looking which is my biggest concern and hopefully a question that i`m sure the Rovers trustees will have asked right at the start.

[Fife Rover]

This will upset people who do not like my posts but here is my best guess at where we are and where we are going:

- I believe VH are the people whom nicko described as "another lot" rushing around trying to put a team together three weeks ago.

- VH have impressed the Trust enormously to have pulled into the strongest lead position that any group has had since the sale process started three + years ago. The analyst from Indian could not have spoken more highly about them even though it appears he got a digit wrong in describing their numbers!

However, VH are still relatively new on the scene. They are not as advanced as many think they are and the negotiations this next week are probably to thrash out a Memorandum of Understanding including a Sale Agreement subject to mutual due diligence. In other words we are in the same position with VH today as we were a week to ten days before Jean Claude Darmon et al wafted into the club shop accompanied by Sky cameras. I would imagine VH are aware of what happened next...

Best guess is there will be a two liner from the club at some point in the next seven days saying the same thing about VH as was said about AWG back in early August.

On that basis an end November deal seems to be both the most sensible and most likely time scale. That would still be a very quick closure on the sale of a £50m+ turnover business.

So VH are probably going to be our new owners but with the following huge caveats:

- three weeks ago, mystery man was at a more advanced stage process-wise than VH are now apparently and was slated as favourite to buy yet when it came to the hard talk, he low balled and we dodged a bullet.

- the rationale for VH buying remains murky. The package for moving Rovers forwards completely hidden.

- quantitative easing has resulted in banks taking the cash generated by the printing presses of western governments and sticking it on bets in emerging markets. There is a completely unsustainable bubble in various stock markets as the Venky's share price track posted by our Australian friends show in the chart they posted.

- that has two critical impacts on Rovers- even the most sober business person feels rich and a world warrior when share prices quadruple in short order- is this the reason why BRFC and chickens are seen as a strategic fit?

- and will the publicly held Venky's be able to sustain the rationale for putting money into Rovers when the emerging market stock bubble goes pop?

- finally there is Ali Syed. The donations to the Cathedral and Nightsafe would be in keeping with his philanthropy and be a lovely parting/farewell gift from his involvement in Blackburn. On the other hand, he and his team of advisors might be extremely determined to win and are not going to be beaten by a chicken... Your guess is as good as mine on what they will do next.

OOOHHH This is getting so exciting!! Time for us all to get our supporters voices going.

COME ON MR. ALI!!!! .......ROVERS,..... ROVERS,........ ROVERS!!!!!

[dave birch]

OOOHHH This is getting so exciting!! Time for us all to get our supporters voices going.

COME ON MR. ALI!!!! .......ROVERS,..... ROVERS,........ ROVERS!!!!!

There's plenty of time to put the kettle on, Fife. At your age, slightly higher than mine, I might add, it's best not to get too excited, (I've got a glass of white at the keyboard).

Got to admit to being totally flatlined by months of public inaction on the subject of the takeover.

[Billy Castell]

Is that in relation to how the VH group is set up, or the details regarding their plans for Rovers should they own Rovers Nicko?

[Fife Rover]

There's plenty of time to put the kettle on, Fife. At your age, slightly higher than mine, I might add, it's best not to get too excited, (I've got a glass of white at the keyboard).

Got to admit to being totally flatlined by months of public inaction on the subject of the takeover.

Yes...thanks for that Dave. I really must heed Doctors orders and take things more steadily and calmly.

Trouble is after a lifetime of getting stuck-in it is quite a hard habit to break.

[dave birch]

Yes...thanks for that Dave. I really must heed Doctors orders and take things more steadily and calmly.

Trouble is after a lifetime of getting stuck-in it is quite a hard habit to break.

I know how you feel, I gave up playing football three seasons ago when I hit sixty, and still feel my feet move when I watch a game.

getting back to the takeover. I must admit, for the first time, (and this has only come across me in the last hour or so) that I'm a bit concerned. Had I not seen the stock price of VH, then I'd probably not changed my tack.

I want to have some plausible explanation of that rise in Venky's stock before I'm convinced about their bid.

The other thing that concerned me was Philips comment about "quantitative easing" and what Banks do with the money the government print. Let's put it to bed here and now. They do not put it into speculative stocks. At best, they'd lend it to each other on the overnight market or, in the longer run, to their most trusted customers.

[philipl]

The quantitative easing money has also flooded Brazil to the consternation of the Government there. The stock market is way up, inflation getting out of control and the Real doing things that are not good. That is why the Brazilians are aggressively raising interest rates and manipulating the currency to try to calm everything down in the face of money printed and intended for the US economy going to Brazil for better returns.

Something similar is happening in India and even on the Shanghai exchange as well.

[bluebruce]

- VH have impressed the Trust enormously to have pulled into the strongest lead position that any group has had since the sale process started three + years ago.

the negotiations this next week are probably to thrash out a Memorandum of Understanding including a Sale Agreement subject to mutual due diligence. In other words we are in the same position with VH today as we were a week to ten days before Jean Claude Darmon et al wafted into the club shop accompanied by Sky cameras.

- three weeks ago, mystery man was at a more advanced stage process-wise than VH are now apparently and was slated as favourite to buy yet when it came to the hard talk, he low balled and we dodged a bullet.

The second two paragraphs I quote don't add up with the first one for me. You say this is the strongest lead position yet then seem to cite two stronger positions that existed previously. The rest of the post, which I didn't quote, was interesting.

Have to say I'm feeling more comfortable about Syed than VH personally (not saying VH aren't in the lead), but this is almost certainly due to the fact we know next to nothing about their bid and are still unsure on their worth. Perhaps if I had the full picture it'd be different.

[dave birch]

The quantitative easing money has also flooded Brazil to the consternation of the Government there. The stock market is way up, inflation getting out of control and the Real doing things that are not good. That is why the Brazilians are aggressively raising interest rates and manipulating the currency to try to calm everything down in the face of money printed and intended for the US economy going to Brazil for better returns.

Something similar is happening in India and even on the Shanghai exchange as well.

Philip, Big miners might want to pour money in, but that's only into increasing the output from Brazil. Their stockmarket is up because of the demand for coal/ore etc. It's one of the few countries where you scratch the surface and there it is. That is probably pushing the market up there. They also don't have a government well versed in things financial, by that I mean a federal reserve that is removed from government interference.

Manipulation of currency is a big problem, and something that BRFC should take into concern in the takeover.

The Shanghai Casino.......

[Fife Rover]

The quantitative easing money has also flooded Brazil to the consternation of the Government there. The stock market is way up, inflation getting out of control and the Real doing things that are not good. That is why the Brazilians are aggressively raising interest rates and manipulating the currency to try to calm everything down in the face of money printed and intended for the US economy going to Brazil for better returns.

Something similar is happening in India and even on the Shanghai exchange as well.

So what you are really telling us Philip is that the ******* bankers are at it again, in spite of recently causing a World recession due to their greed and complete stupidity. If that is the case then the various Governments should be taking drastic steps to permanently reign them in. They got away with it Scot free last time, and the rest of the population is now paying the price and will be doing so for the forseeable future. Meanwhile these greedy thieving ******'s are just getting off with the merest tap on the wrist and now they are at it again. Time for serious action to PERMANENTLY stop their antics.

[67splitscreen]

I presume that this is aimed at me.

To precis the issue I had, was that Venky's share price had gone up 440%. That warrants comment.

Which seem to be on the back of securing contracts with KFC and McDonalds in India in late 2009.

Also the major expansion plans

[philipl]

The second two paragraphs I quote don't add up with the first one for me. You say this is the strongest lead position yet then seem to cite two stronger positions that existed previously. The rest of the post, which I didn't quote, was interesting.

Have to say I'm feeling more comfortable about Syed than VH personally (not saying VH aren't in the lead), but this is almost certainly due to the fact we know next to nothing about their bid and are still unsure on their worth. Perhaps if I had the full picture it'd be different.

I need to be careful here.

VH are new on the scene but they have enormously impressed in the short time they have been around. Look at what Sam has been saying (no I don't know if he has met them) and the pieces that Andy Cryer has been writing in the LT over the past week or so.

WGA did not get the same, shall we say, inside support comments when they were in effect bidding against Saurin Shah back in August.

Again the comments about the mystery man is taken from Andy Cryer comment when it was first reported that WGA were unlikely to be the successful bidder.

So whatever VH have done or said thus far has tickled the Trust's fancy.

Dave, point well made about natural resources but that is not the only flow at work here. I think we agree that Venky's share price looks like a bubble and there are a fair few of those around in the BRIC at present. (Brazil, Russia, India and China- easily confused with Blackburn Rovers Indoor Centre).

Here is a piece from the Daily Star (Bangladesh... not the British comic) - note the $650m figure for VH- another number dramatically different from others we have seen.

Anyone else think the guy in the white shirt looks like the chap briefly caught by the TV cameras in the directors' seats at Ewood behind JW's right shoulder at Ewood on Monday? (That is a joke by the way before I start a riot on here!)

India's poultry giant sets foot in Bangladesh

Australian cricketer Brett Lee, extreme left, and Bollywood actor Sanjay Dutt, second from right, attend the launch of Indian poultry giant VH Group's Bangladesh operations yesterday. The ceremony was held at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre in Dhaka. Photo: Shawkat Jamil

Star Business Report

Indian poultry giant Venkateshwara Hatcheries Group, which began its operations in Bangladesh yesterday, looks to bring in state-of-the-art technology to the poultry sector here.

The $650 million conglomerate, which claims to be the largest fully integrated poultry group in Asia, says the company plans to replicate its Indian success through revolutionising the poultry sector in Bangladesh.

"Our aim is to bring the state-of-the-art technologies of poultry farming to the doorsteps of the common rural farmers of Bangladesh," said VH Group's Joint Managing Director

B Venkatesh Rao in his speech.

The three-decade-old company, which boasts an 85 percent share of India's poultry market, will produce broiler and layer feeds under the brand name 'Venky's', through Uttara Foods and Feeds Private Ltd, one of its major concerns.

The corporate giant launched its operation through a ceremony at Bangabandhu International Conference Centre in Dhaka.

The colourful event was attended by famous Indian actor Sanjay Dutt and Australian cricket star Brett Lee, among many other eminent personalities.

Fisheries and Livestock Minister Md Abdul Latif Biswas attended the ceremony as the chief guest, while senior officials from the company were present at the event.

Speaking on the occasion, Biswas came down hard on traders who are deliberately trying to manipulate the prices of poultry products in the market.

"Although the government has fixed the prices of major poultry products in a bid to check the price spiral, it is frustrating that some traders are defying the directive," the minister said.

While the fisheries and livestock ministry has set the maximum prices of one-day broiler and layer chick at Tk 30 and Tk 32 respectively, some poultry dealers are selling them at prices as high as Tk 90 to Tk 100, he said.

Highlighting the important role of the poultry industry in the economy, the minister said the sector has created employments for around 2.5 million people while contributing to poverty alleviation nationally.

"As a whole, the livestock sector has generated indirect employment opportunities for 20 percent of the population while creating indirect employment for around 50 percent," he said.

Though poultry is a major source of nutrition, a huge gap remains between the demand and supply of poultry products in the country, he said.

[Brfcrule1]

Nicko can you confirm there will be a piece in tommorrow's Sunday People about this new group. I am having trouble understanding your posts would you say VH group are in the lead to buy the club or Syed Ali?. Do you know what assurances Syed has yet to confirm & would you say it is possible he will clear up those issues?.

[dave birch]

Which seem to be on the back of securing contracts with KFC and McDonalds in India in late 2009.

Also the major expansion plans

440% in 12months is a staggering increase. Increases in stocks are usually proportional in any country (that's my interpretation anyway) so 400%+ is wayyyy over the top, and should make any potential investor wary.

By comparison, back in the early 70's, there was a nickel mining company named Poseidon, based in WA. It's stock price went up like Venky's. Some people are still looking for their money. I'm not saying that Venk'ys stock price isn't valid, just that it's increase needs further evaluation before investing in it.

The old adage, "A fool and his money are soon parted" is still apt in this day and age.

[duffbear]

Which seem to be on the back of securing contracts with KFC and McDonalds in India in late 2009.

Also the major expansion plans

In this article it states a turnover of 36 billion Rupees what does that convert to?

[philipl]

Live rates at 2010.10.23 12:22:00 UTC

36,000,000,000.00 INR = 515,838,015.38 GBP

India Rupees United Kingdom Pounds

1 INR = 0.0143288 GBP 1 GBP = 69.7894 INR

Courtesy www.xe.com

So the Indian business analyst appears not to have added a zero to their numbers- that is a half billion business and consistent with the figure given by the Bangladesh Daily Star.

Of course, are we talking sales or corporate valuation on the stock market?

[dave birch]

Philip, I've no doubt that Venky's are an honourable company.

If they takeover the Rovers, I would hope that they set a moral standard that the rest of the business world can follow.

My concern is that the bubble they "appear" to be in bursts, then it could affect the Rovers.