[Archived] Rovers Takeover: End game ?

[thenodrog]

The Trust may have more cash. It has no relevance. Apart from the fact that they should have spent more of it on Rovers in the past few years.

Do you ever stop to think that that is precisely why they have more money? Have you forgotten about the prune juice theory?

imo The biggest mistake in recent years (up until these past 10 months granted) was not backing Mark Hughes when he was in for Diarra. Pompey at that time were splashing the cash and outbid us to our chagrin at the time but just look what happened to them.

[nicko]

I think some forget that Kentaro are not just involved with players, but TV rights for international matches etc. I wonder Nicko, do you think that in itself could mean that some of that money coming Rovers way. Because Rovers could have there own TV channel in places such as India, which in itself would generate interest in Rovers from over seas. Advertisments / sponsorships etc. Venky's owner has said she sees wants to exploit the premiership football and interest in India - not the club. With a Venky and a Kentaro partnership and Rovers it could be done. A successful club would bring success to both Venky's and kentaro's own individual interests. Generate the football interest in India. Help them see (india) that eventually holding a World Cup in India would be worhtwhile.

It would be a slumdog millionare type story, small town club makes it big in another part of the world. (I can dream)

I don't know how they intend to make it work - but TV exposure would look like being part of it. Kentaro have done a lot of TV deals, including some involving Rovers incidentally.

[adopted scouser]

Gord, I haven't forgotten the prune juice theory. Especially looking back on the Diarra era

[nicko]

Do you ever stop to think that that is precisely why they have more money? Have you forgotten about the prune juice theory?

imo The biggest mistake in recent years (up until these past 10 months granted) was not backing Mark Hughes when he was in for Diarra. Pompey at that time were splashing the cash and outbid us to our chagrin at the time but just look what happened to them.

The Trust stopped putting money in for transfers because they wanted out of the club.

That is fair enough.

That era is about to end.

Pompey made a profit on Diarra, by the way. One of the few deals they did that made anything resmbling sense.

[PAFELL]

when he says local, does he mean local as in the town of Blackburn or surrounding areas? Or does he mean in terms of England as a whole? If he means local as in Blackburn, then im not sure why that rich individual has not stepped forward to buy the club.

If its throughout the country, then perhaps, but again, why has nobody stepped forward. The only ones interested were Chris Ronnie i think, and Dan Williams.

He also mentions selling the club to somebody for nothing, but that would just lead to so many chancers and the club landing into the wrong hands.

Lets be honest, in an ideal world of football ownership, we would all like our clubs to be owned by somebody local, a Rovers supporter. Or even a supporter within the UK who just loves football - who maybe had no favorite team. Sees a club for sale and decides to buy it, love it and build it up. Not taking much out, if anything at all. An expensive hobby.

The reality is somewhat different, the person does not exsit or if they do have not come forward. In this day and age with football being governed by who has the most money, gets the most points, gets the most trophies etc etc - a person would have to a raving lunatic to even consider it.

So football is now not just a sport as it was originally designed to be, it is a business. Therefore those interested in the clubs now can only be business people. football is now a world business, generates worldwide interest, especially since the increase in media interest making the world smaller. So it opens all clubs up to anybody who has the money to get involved in football club ownership. Sadly that is the world we live in. A great big lunatic asylum.

[rovers_rob]

The way I see it is that Venky's have a plan to increase revenue by building the profile of the club.

The only way this can be done is to improve the team and make us competitive in the league so initially they will need to invest in the team.

If the profile of the club increases then Venkys profile will increase as well. I haven't got a problem with that.

This is a plan, it might fail but on the other hand it might just work and looking at the history of Venkys they will do everything they can to make it work.

What are the alternatives ?

The Trust ?

No, they want out. They have said all along that the don't need to sell but they want to BUT only to the right people. All we can do is trust there judgement. I trust John Williams and the trust have done what they think is right.

Ali Syed ?

What was Mr Ali's plan again?

His first comment was to say something along the lines of he didn't expect a return for 3 or 4 years and that his big plan was to increase capacity at Ewood Park. Then all of a sudden he didn't want a return and he wanted to be a fan. Hmmm…

Where did this guy get his money from ? Isn't he from a rich family or something ? Did he make all of his money from scratch like Venkys did ?

When the Goldberg did his program on the radio people went hysterical defending Ali Syed. Weird.

What dirt has been dug up on Venkys ?

Yes there have been some weird comments about leasing players but there have also been comments about investing in the team so why people are getting hysterical about Venkys is beyond me when you look at the alternatives.

[PAFELL]

The way I see it is that Venky's have a plan to increase revenue by building the profile of the club.

The only way this can be done is to improve the team and make us competitive in the league so initially they will need to invest in the team.

If the profile of the club increases then Venkys profile will increase as well. I haven't got a problem with that.

This is a plan, it might fail but on the other hand it might just work and looking at the history of Venkys they will do everything they can to make it work.

What are the alternatives ?

The Trust ?

No, they want out. They have said all along that the don't need to sell but they want to BUT only to the right people. All we can do is trust there judgement. I trust John Williams and the trust have done what they think is right.

Ali Syed ?

What was Mr Ali's plan again?

His first comment was to say something along the lines of he didn't expect a return for 3 or 4 years and that his big plan was to increase capacity at Ewood Park. Then all of a sudden he didn't want a return and he wanted to be a fan. Hmmm…

Where did this guy get his money from ? Isn't he from a rich family or something ? Did he make all of his money from scratch like Venkys did ?

When the Goldberg did his program on the radio people went hysterical defending Ali Syed. Weird.

What dirt has been dug up on Venkys ? CHICKEN SH*T

Yes there have been some weird comments about leasing players but there have also been comments about investing in the team so why people are getting hysterical about Venkys is beyond me when you look at the alternatives.

[nicko]

From many of your posts, nicko, I do wonder why you seem to have a subtle dislike of the Trust. The Trust have looked after the club without pumping millions into the transfer kitty, but with pumping millions into clearing debts and paying the necessary high wages to attract players to the club. I'm not saying we don't need transfer funds - we do, as was evident against Wigan. But I think it's only to the untrained mind and eye that people think they've done nothing for us over the years.

Get's a bit frustrating to keep hearing about it because it's not strictly true.

The Trust stopped backing the club a few years back. That's not an insult, it's a fact. There is no problem with that...if you move out quickly.

The trouble when you do not spend money is that things tend to stagnate. Look at the table today, look at the size of your squad, look at the dreadful last window. Now that IS a problem.

[Spansterkid]

For the record, here's the valuation of VH Group that I gave previously.

VH group says on its own website that it's worth 1300 Crore (Click here if you don't believe me)

1 Crore is equal to 10 million (Click here if you don't believe me)

1300 Crore is therefore equal to 13,000,000,000 (Get your calculator out if you don't believe me)

The exchange rate is now £1 = 70.56 INR

The total value of VH Group is therefore £184,240,363

Time will tell whether £184m or 'billionaires' proves to be the closest to the truth. I stand by my figures.

[PAFELL]

For the record, here's the valuation of VH Group that I gave previously.

Time will tell whether £184m or 'billionaires' proves to be the closest to the truth. I stand by my figures.

Just a thought, if that is all Venky's have, why would they want to risk or spend £46 million on a football club, which would be a quater of the funds. They must have a very good business plan lined up or more funds available or just plain daft. Why would Shah contact them to help him in his quest to buy Rovers. He must know that they have more funds than himself and that they were worth approaching. Out of curiosity is it known how much Shah has. Must be more money in shipping than chickens.

[Spansterkid]

Just a thought, if that is all Venky's have, why would they want to risk or spend £46 million on a football club, which would be a quater of the funds. They must have a very good business plan lined up or more funds available or just plain daft. Why would Shah contact them to help him in his quest to buy Rovers. He must know that they have more funds than himself and that they were worth approaching. Out of curiosity is it known how much Shah has. Must be more money in shipping than chickens.

Shah was trying to put together a consortium. It makes sense to approach companies the size of VH Group to be part of a consortium. £184m is huge by Indian standards, but not by Premier League standards. The other questions remain unanswered, until we see what happens over the next few years. If the business plan fails I think we could be in serious trouble, I hope I'm wrong.

[Balwer]

Just a thought, if that is all Venky's have, why would they want to risk or spend £46 million on a football club, which would be a quater of the funds. They must have a very good business plan lined up or more funds available or just plain daft. Why would Shah contact them to help him in his quest to buy Rovers. He must know that they have more funds than himself and that they were worth approaching. Out of curiosity is it known how much Shah has. Must be more money in shipping than chickens.

Annual revenue is not available funds, that would be cash balance.

Also I still don't understand why people are so keen to measure worth by revenue, since it could cost you 95c to make every dollar, or 5c.....

[ERIKS666]

For the record, here's the valuation of VH Group that I gave previously.

Time will tell whether £184m or 'billionaires' proves to be the closest to the truth. I stand by my figures.

as you say these are probably correct but what you can't prove and never will its what the private parts of the groups are worth as there accounts Do Not need to be made public and therefore these may hide the fortunes that these people may or may not have it is the easiest way to loose money from the public sector asyou have no shareholders to report to

ERIKS666

[Hughesy]

For the record, here's the valuation of VH Group that I gave previously.

Time will tell whether £184m or 'billionaires' proves to be the closest to the truth. I stand by my figures.

So you honestly think a group worth just £184m would blow over 25% of it on a football club??

I think you need to keep up...we have already been told most of their business isnt in the public light & financial info isnt available on those companies...You are then ignoring any profit which they may/ may not have banked in past years....I also learned last week that Venkys is worth 4000 cr...that alone is considerably more than the £184m you talk about...and that doesnt cover everything they own, everything they have invested in & everything banked.

Lets see who is right!! I stand by your figures & say you will be WRONG!!

[Exiled in Toronto]

From many of your posts, nicko, I do wonder why you seem to have a subtle dislike of the Trust. The Trust have looked after the club without pumping millions into the transfer kitty, but with pumping millions into clearing debts and paying the necessary high wages to attract players to the club. I'm not saying we don't need transfer funds - we do, as was evident against Wigan. But I think it's only to the untrained mind and eye that people think they've done nothing for us over the years.

Please. Even the most untrained eye can see that the last 3 years have been completely different from what went before.

OK, the cumulative contribution of Jack and the Trust when they were investing was transferred from debt into equity, but that was just a way of writing off an unrecoverable debt to make the club saleable. The high wages of recent years have been funded by external debt, ie the bank, and the sale of playing assets. Nothing to do with the trust, and a situation that was clearly unsustainable for much longer: selling the good players to pay the remaining dross inflated wages that no-one else would even consider.

[PAFELL]

Shah was trying to put together a consortium. It makes sense to approach companies the size of VH Group to be part of a consortium. £184m is huge by Indian standards, but not by Premier League standards. The other questions remain unanswered, until we see what happens over the next few years. If the business plan fails I think we could be in serious trouble, I hope I'm wrong.

The current business plan for Rovers from the trust, is nothing.

What the venky's are willing to do (even just paying off the debts) is more than what the trust are doing now. For Rovers just £16 mill would be a nice pot for a transfer window.

Stagnation that is happening now can only lead eventually to one result, relegation / administration / bust.

Only the Venky's have come forward with money to buy the club and clear the debts, (bear in mind that Syed walked away - which I suggest was maybe because he could not compete with the Venky's offer / plan).

So the best option for Rovers to remain in the prem or even in business today is the one that is on offer from Venky's / Kentaro.

It may go tits up, but there are no other options coming forward.

The trust have already said they will not be funding Rovers anymore. Venky's may or not have a lot of funds that they are willing to put into Rovers. But a minimum fund is a lot better than NO FUNDS at all.

[Spansterkid]

as you say these are probably correct but what you can't prove and never will its what the private parts of the groups are worth as there accounts Do Not need to be made public and therefore these may hide the fortunes that these people may or may not have it is the easiest way to loose money from the public sector asyou have no shareholders to report to

ERIKS666

Fair point. They will have some private money but remember £184m is the total value of the VH Group not profit made and the VH Group includes most of the private parts of the promoter's assets along with the main public part, Venky's (India). A little over three years ago they were worth about £45m in total. How much money can you take out of company that size?

[67splitscreen]

So you honestly think a group worth just £184m would blow over 25% of it on a football club??

I think you need to keep up...we have already been told most of their business isnt in the public light & financial info isnt available on those companies...You are then ignoring any profit which they may/ may not have banked in past years....I also learned last week that Venkys is worth 4000 cr...that alone is considerably more than the £184m you talk about...and that doesnt cover everything they own, everything they have invested in & everything banked.

Lets see who is right!! I stand by your figures & say you will be WRONG!!

Let's just put the record straight here, Hughesy, are you saying Venky's or the V H group.

[Spansterkid]

So you honestly think a group worth just £184m would blow over 25% of it on a football club??

I think you need to keep up...we have already been told most of their business isnt in the public light & financial info isnt available on those companies...You are then ignoring any profit which they may/ may not have banked in past years....I also learned last week that Venkys is worth 4000 cr...that alone is considerably more than the £184m you talk about...and that doesnt cover everything they own, everything they have invested in & everything banked.

Lets see who is right!! I stand by your figures & say you will be WRONG!!

Revenue of the VH group is 3000 crore per annum. How can they be worth 4000 crore?

Revenue 3000 crore

Most sources say they're worth 1300 crore.

1300 x 1

1300 x 2

1300 x 3

1300 x 4

1300 x 5

1300 x 6

[ERIKS666]

Fair point. They will have some private money but remember £184m is the total value of the VH Group not profit made and the VH Group includes most of the private parts of the promoter's assets along with the main public part, Venky's (India). A little over three years ago they were worth about £45m in total. How much money can you take out of company that size?

that won't show the true figures still as the company i work for have been through two takeovers from a private to public listed company in Holland

and now back to a private family company in holland they post their finacial reports on the website but it dosent show there true wealth as they have interests in other things that they will invest and that has made them the company they are now.

as a company we from a 1.3billon euro turnover a year to a 11.9billon euro turnover company being part of there group in 2009 are accounts are spread out over a 78 page pdf document.

all we can hope for is a statment of intent from the new owners when they finally complete the takeover which seems to be reaching the final stage wheither we all like it or not.

ERIKS666

lets put the toon down to night with a win up the blue & whites

[Balwer]

What the company or group is 'worth' is irrelevant (and I don't understand what a lot of you are basing this valuation on, Discounted Cash Flow? Earnings multiple? Comparables?).

What the company is willing to spend and can sustain in capex (capital expenditure) terms, is all that matters to us as fans.

[John]

The main opening statement (see below) from our prospective new owner, Anuradha Desai, is hardly one for any of us to get too excited about.

"I feel that the Venky's brand will get an immediate recognition if we take over this club, and that is the main reason why we are doing this"

[Roost]

that won't show the true figures still as the company i work for have been through two takeovers from a private to public listed company in Holland

and now back to a private family company in holland they post their finacial reports on the website but it dosent show there true wealth as they have interests in other things that they will invest and that has made them the company they are now.

as a company we from a 1.3billon euro turnover a year to a 11.9billon euro turnover company being part of there group in 2009 are accounts are spread out over a 78 page pdf document.

all we can hope for is a statment of intent from the new owners when they finally complete the takeover which seems to be reaching the final stage wheither we all like it or not.

ERIKS666

lets put the toon down to night with a win up the blue & whites

Thats the best comment I have read in this thread for days - good lad!!

[iamarover]

Fair point. They will have some private money but remember £184m is the total value of the VH Group not profit made and the VH Group includes most of the private parts of the promoter's assets along with the main public part, Venky's (India). A little over three years ago they were worth about £45m in total. How much money can you take out of company that size?

You are mixing all your apples and pears and coming out with prune juice. A company is usually 'valued' at its ratio of profits v a multiple. Venky's is trading at around 9 or 10. Some analyst bloggers therefore value quoted company at around half of your quoted figure.

http://www.gauravblog.com/?tag=venkateshwara-hatcheries-group-buys-out-blackburn-rover

The central point though is that most of the VH Group is private. The 45 million valuation relates only to the smallish plc. This guy has made his estimate;, around 5 times the value of the company sits off the balance sheet.

This tiny wheat company for example isnt quoted but sees itself as being part of a 'USD500m' holding company

http://www.alibaba.com/product-free/218366675/Venky_s_Whole_Wheat_Chakki_Fresh.html

Trawl the Internet and there are dozens of Venky investments, property deals, private investments and the like under various (probably deliberately) confusingly plentiful umbrellas. With no disclosure they can take as much or as little cash out of their businesses as they like without telling nosy buggers like me how much. Not so with their plc which is the only one in the very public eye. In the end though once you have gone past a threshold where you can guarantee the cash paid, it doesnt really matter. The size of your current valuation doesnt indicate how much the owner will actually put in. Whether they borrow off banks offering historically low interest rates, or fund it elsewhere, doesnt really matter. In the end a business plan demands return. So:

There are 3 things a future owner needs

1. Cash. They have this.

2. A plan. A plan to get most or all of their money back. They seem to have this. Whatever you think of the Asia Marketing and Ajax-type young player production line, it is the only credible one I have heard outside of the Trust's 'Put Nothing In, Take Nothing Out' strategy which followed their early largesse.

3. Probity. They might have this. They might not. I pray to Ganesha they do. If they don't, the Trust will have betrayed its duty. £100m Trust donation isnt enough for folk on here to win their thanks. Well they have mine. But if they havent called this right then the club faces oblivion. Paul M is right to call for fans trying to make owners accountable but I am just not sure how we do it, short of a public inquisition.

If fans on here have a role then we need to avoid the obvious distractions of cash/loans/net worth. The public evidence stacks up, the private evidence is seen only by Rothschilds and the Trust. Thus far they have called right.

Secondly we need to ignore the 'local' mill owner whine of Whelan. All that went with nostalgic wishes for Number 9s that got on the tram to the game with fans. We take global cash..so we shouldnt baulk at global ownership.

The only proper analysis that could help is analysis of the Plan..and investigation into Probity. The BBC holed Syed below the waterline with their revelations; if Venky[s have similar skeletons then we should support attempts to find them.

Until then, resistance, unfortunately is futile. Until they show their worth. And if they come up short...well.... Come the Revolution is another thread another day we hope will never come.

[Balwer]

1. Cash. They have this.

This is the only part of your post I don't like. What are you basing this on? That they can meet the purchase price of the club, despite us not knowing what the source of their funding is?