[Archived] The Dawn Of A New Era

[deftangel]

We've been defensively bad all season in my opinion, Kean's more attacking approach is just giving our back four more opportunities to make the same mistakes. It's a big ask of anyone to come into the Premiership and protect a back four on his own so I would err on playing the players with better engines alongside Jones for the time being, excluding Junior of course. (NOTE TO STEVE THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANDREWS)

Spurs had comparatively little chances last time at Ewood and the first half against Chelsea we were reasonably solid, so it can be done. The encouraging thing for me from last week was that Kean readily acknowledged it was a problem and needed to be worked on.

If we can just be a little less gung-ho against Newcastle it's a game we can win.

I do hope Kelbo's comment about targeting specific games is either not true or a habit he gets out of quickly.

[Kelbo]

We've been defensively bad all season in my opinion, Kean's more attacking approach is just giving our back four more opportunities to make the same mistakes. It's a big ask of anyone to come into the Premiership and protect a back four on his own so I would err on playing the players with better engines alongside Jones for the time being, excluding Junior of course. (NOTE TO STEVE THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANDREWS)

Spurs had comparatively little chances last time at Ewood and the first half against Chelsea we were reasonably solid, so it can be done. The encouraging thing for me from last week was that Kean readily acknowledged it was a problem and needed to be worked on.

If we can just be a little less gung-ho against Newcastle it's a game we can win.

I do hope Kelbo's comment about targeting specific games is either not true or a habit he gets out of quickly.

Perhaps I worded this incorrectly, they have a graph and within that graph through stages of a season, a certain number of points are the target, like a whole season but broken down into quarters and each quarter this target will be achieved or not, I think from what I have been told, they are 3 points adrift at the moment, 3 points prior to Christmas and three points after, I think we went three points ahead of the target at one time.

[darwenblueswearehere]

Perhaps I worded this incorrectly, they have a graph and within that graph through stages of a season, a certain number of points are the target, like a whole season but broken down into quarters and each quarter this target will be achieved or not, I think from what I have been told, they are 3 points adrift at the moment, 3 points prior to Christmas and three points after, I think we went three points ahead of the target at one time.

That's a sensible and common way of approaching a season. A bit like a batsman building a long innings in a cricket match, setting himself mini targets as he goes either in runs or time.

This is quite different from pouring all efforts and energies only into targetted, 'winnable' games, which is what a lot of people thought, rightly or wrongly, that a previous manager did.

[47er]

We've been defensively bad all season in my opinion, Kean's more attacking approach is just giving our back four more opportunities to make the same mistakes. It's a big ask of anyone to come into the Premiership and protect a back four on his own so I would err on playing the players with better engines alongside Jones for the time being, excluding Junior of course. (NOTE TO STEVE THIS DOES NOT MEAN ANDREWS)

Spurs had comparatively little chances last time at Ewood and the first half against Chelsea we were reasonably solid, so it can be done. The encouraging thing for me from last week was that Kean readily acknowledged it was a problem and needed to be worked on.

If we can just be a little less gung-ho against Newcastle it's a game we can win.

I do hope Kelbo's comment about targeting specific games is either not true or a habit he gets out of quickly.

Despite having an under-funded squad, we have always been able to ground out enough results to get us home. We don't seem to be able to do that since Kean came----we either win or, more often, lose. It has to be about the set-up of the team.

This ability to get something even when you don't play well should not be derided. Manu are masters of it.

[darwenblueswearehere]

Despite having an under-funded squad, we have always been able to ground out enough results to get us home. We don't seem to be able to do that since Kean came----we either win or, more often, lose. It has to be about the set-up of the team.

This ability to get something even when you don't play well should not be derided. Manu are masters of it.

Funnily enough I didn't think we played that well at home against West Ham and West Brom, but got 4 points from those games. Its a fair point though, and one which Kean himself does seem to acknowledge. 5 in midfield Saturday?

[JAL]

Read my post again, you may scoff at 5 million being spent, however how much did the trust invest in the last couple of years? Wages were a burden, we were selling Warnock to cover wages! Remind us again which player has been sold that you would see a must have for Kean? Exactly, and this is January wait til the summer and we will have a marque signing as opposed to... Benjani ;

Secondly most managers in the league are found out as you say, the average span for a pl manager is less than two years so hardly rocket science stuff stating that. What should ring alarm bells for you is that so many first team players are signing long term deals, I assume that is because they trust the manager and Venkys, why don't you too hey?

Look at the club that the trust left us, lack of investment in the squad would have resulted in relegation. Venkys have shown in their other businesses that they invest in the long term not a quick fix.

Imy9, we all knew what was needed regarding investment, we knew the position we were in, didnt we. So, do you think £5m was or is more than adequate,for me its definitely not, if expectations are to be realised.

If you was to read everybody's negative comments on this site regarding Steve Kean, then I think you'll find theres enough on here to more than highlight one way or another the misgivings of Steve Kean as a manager for Rovers.

But surely if Venky's were or are to be successful, then the Rovers manager they appoint would be a manager who WILL beat those statistical averages of the lifespan of a premier league manager, because at the end of the day failure as a manager IS a highly expensive mistake to correct afterwards is it not.

[tonygreenbank]

I do not want the Rovers to fail. By extension I do not want Kean to fail. I hope we inflict a 7-0 thrashing upon Newcastle. But if we fail to defeat Newcastle at home, then how can we reasonably expect 9 plus points from the following:

Villa A

Fulham A

Blackpool H

Arsenal A

Birmingham H

Everton A

ManC H

Bolton H

West Ham A

ManU H

Wolves A

If we can't beat Newcastle at home, and considering our other defeats over the last two months, than I submit to you that unless major changes occur quickly thereafter, we could well be facing the Dawn of a New Era. One in the Championship. And I hope our new owners know the difference between the Champions League and the Championship, considering the alleged langauge barriers that have been thrown up in their defense.

We certainly will not be looking at a mid-table finish without defeating Newcastle, unless you think we can reasonably expect to collect 14-19 points following a Newcastle defeat?

In summary, it is my position that if you want unpredictable, play craps. While football certainly contains an element of chance, results are also influenced by talent and hard work (our slogan) and managerial ability, whether in tactics, squad selection and substitutions and man management. If Kean can't get a mid-table club (which the Rovers certainly are, better if you believe our owners) to perform as a mid-table club, then we need a change in management. I would prefer that it not be necessary and Kean start posting some results. But if a change becomes necessary, than I suggest that it occur while something can still be done, not when we are on life support.

Apologies to Steve Moss for the above! I was trying to reply to your post but ended up quoting the whole thing! My only comment was its great to predict on paper!What this season has taught us is that this league is very unpredictable!

[Steve Moss]

Don't underestimate the loss of young Jones in Kean's first game.

This omission is a potential saving grace for Kean. I think young Jones has been immense in his midfield role, and provided a top drawer substitute when Samba or Nelsen have not been available for selection. I also think the loss of Givet has hurt Kean's ability to obtain positive results. Givet's return should give our defense a bit of a boost. When Jones returns, paired with the other Jones or otherwise, I believe (hope) we can be rock solid at the back for the last couple of months for our run in.

. . . I'm simply asking . . .

b. whether Kean's record is as bad as a lot of people are making out.

Kean's record is not currently 'bad'. Its not currently 'good' either. How long any particular person gives him depends on how risk adverse they may be. If Kean had a postive management track record behind him, I would personally be more patient with him, as everyone has the occassional bad run of results. Without a track record, we don't even have that re-assurance with Kean. Which makes me more risk adverse than I might otherwise be.

After Newcastle, he'll have been in charge for 10 PL matches. That is over 25% of a season. All things considered, and as I'd rather err in the side of safety where the Rovers are concerned, if he can't improve above 1.0 points/match average, than he needs to go. All in my opinion, of course.

I do know for a fact that Kean has followed Sams way of targeting winnable games in so much as little points tables at a given time, I can tell you in all honesty, that we are 6 points adrift of the target at the moment, however, as you say, games where we would not be expected to pick up points we may do so. Balanced against all this of course is this, a loss against Newcastle would make things very sticky for Rovers and March and April are renowned for shock results here and there and lots of draws!

Describing a loss against Newcastle as making things 'sticky' for the Rovers is a bit of an understatement. Getting an additional 14-19 points and ending up mid-table will be far less likely. It would take 19 additional points to match Sam's performance of last season. Where do we get 6 wins and a draw from the following matches?

Villa A

Fulham A

Blackpool H

Arsenal A

Birmingham H

Everton A

ManC H

Bolton H

West Ham A

ManU H

Wolves A

And where is our room for error if we fail to get what I would normally count as realistic prospect of wins against Blackpool, West Ham and Wolves? If we win those we are presumably safe at 40 points. If we lose anyone of those three, then we have desperate times. Which is way Newcastle is so critical. If we win, we can flub anyone of those three and still reach presumptive safety. Heck, with those three and a Newcastle win, we might obtain the odd draw and win here and there which would place us at the 50 point mark and, potentially, top half again. I would love to stick it to Arsenal away 2 years in a row and we are due some payback from Villa. But without demonstrating the qaulity to defeat Newcastle at home, the prospect of mid-table finish becomes considerably more remote in light of recent performances.

So I'm not intending to jump on those who think cutting our losses after a Newcastle defeat would be premature. I understand that a sense of decency, committment, etc. would warrant giving Kean more time. However, in light of his lack of a management track record which would suggest patience, I'm of the opinion the "Ls" would be on the wrong side of the form table, and that the number of games available to pull out of a downward spiral too limited, to warrant giving him that additional time. The issue is the Rovers, not Sam vs. Kean.

[darwenblueswearehere]

Describing a loss against Newcastle as making things 'sticky' for the Rovers is a bit of an understatement. Getting an additional 14-19 points and ending up mid-table will be far less likely. It would take 19 additional points to match Sam's performance of last season. Where do we get 6 wins and a draw from the following matches?

Let's have some fun then eh?

Villa A Winnable

Fulham A Winnable

Blackpool H Should win

Arsenal A Should lose

Birmingham H Should win

Everton A Winnable

ManC H Would be happy with a point

Bolton H Should win

West Ham A Should win

ManU H Winnable

Wolves A Winnable

And where is our room for error if we fail to get what I would normally count as realistic prospect of wins against Blackpool, West Ham and Wolves? If we win those we are presumably safe at 40 points. If we lose anyone of those three, then we have desperate times. Which is way Newcastle is so critical. If we win, we can flub anyone of those three and still reach presumptive safety. Heck, with those three and a Newcastle win, we might obtain the odd draw and win here and there which would place us at the 50 point mark and, potentially, top half again. I would love to stick it to Arsenal away 2 years in a row and we are due some payback from Villa. But without demonstrating the qaulity to defeat Newcastle at home, the prospect of mid-table finish becomes considerably more remote in light of recent performances.

[Steve Moss]

^ darwenblueswearehere, I appreciate your optimism. And while I hope that it is not misplaced, I think we need to factor in that we are 16th on current form, a massive reversal over recent weeks, and still sliding if we don't win against Newcastle.

By way of a more specific response:

Villa A Winnable- Doubtful. Our away form leaves a lot to be desired and Villa gets a postive result 50% of the time at home on current form.

Fulham A Winnable- Doubtful. Fulham is 6th in current form, gets a result 5/6 at home compared to our 5/6 loss ratio away, and Hughes has, for obvious reasons, a solid grasp of our squad's strengths and weaknesses.

Blackpool H Should win- I agree. Blackpool is dead last on current form, though I fear we may overtake them without a win against Newcastle.

Arsenal A Should lose- Enough said.

Birmingham H Should win- Doubtful. Big City have got a positive result in 2/3 of their away matches in current form.

Everton A Winnable- Doubtful. Everton have got a positive result in 2/3 of their home matches in current form.

ManC H Would be happy with a point- Ditto. Unfortunately, a point is not likely.

Bolton H Should win - I agree. Bolton have actually lost each of their last 6 away games.

West Ham A Should win- Unfortunately, West Ham are better than us on current form, with a 50% positive result at home compared to our 5/6 outright losses away.

ManU H Winnable- I'll have what you're drinking. ManU has obtained a result in every match but one.

Wolves A Winnable- Doubtful. Wolves have outright won 2/3 of their home matches on current form.

Based on current form, and without the detailed bookie analysis, I get 6 points. We might pick up the odd win or the odd draw. Without them, we're toast unless we see dramatic improvement in our form soon.

The good news is that Givet and RSC are back, it looks like Kalinic is scoring and, long term, Jones will be coming back in 4-5 weeks. So maybe my doom and gloom is premature. Which is why I'm waiting until Saturday to have a meltdown.

[XLM]

Not all results go according to form. If they did the table would be decided after the first six games of the season.

[Steve Moss]

Not all results go according to form. If they did the table would be decided after the first six games of the season.

Absolutely. Changes happen, whether in players, tactics, management or motivation. Which is why our current form has not yet caused me to panic. This weekend we may have RSC, Kalinic and Givet available to us. If so, and if we win, that would indicate that factors have changed and that we might expect an uptick in form.

On the other hand, if we lose to Newcastle despite the inclusion of RSC, Kalinic and Givet exactly what do you contemplate improving within our club as a whole which would indicate a potential improvement in our current form, other than luck?

That's why I think Newcastle is massive.

[deftangel]

It's not terribly instructive to judge results several weeks in the future on current form either but I agree with Steve Moss in the main. Kean's performance so far has been "ok". I'm happy if it is "ok" for the rest of the season but the Newcastle game is a big one for exactly that reason. If we win, then it's a good chance we'll continue to be Ok and things start moving towards good. If we lose, then we're moving from Ok towards bad.

It's perfectly reasonable to be more nervous about the manager given that he's still pretty green. I just wouldn't advocate panicking if we don't beat Newcastle. They've just come off the back of an amazing result that will feel like a win and will be in good spirits. It is not a forgone conclusion that we should win this game though the doom mongers will no doubt try to spin it that way if we fail to do so.

Our last home performance against a much better side was decent so here's hoping.

[Miker]

12 points is my benchmark for Kean. Reach that and he's doing ok, fall short and he's not good enough, exceed it and I'll be convinced he's the man for the job.

[Majiball]

I couldn't help but chuckle when I watched Hustle on BBC 1 tonight.

[67splitscreen]

I couldn't help but chuckle when I watched Hustle on BBC 1 tonight.

I wonder how Chris ........... feels?

[cruz]

Putting the highly interesting future game predictions to one side has anyone else heard the worrying rumour that ticket prices will go up significantly next season?

[Paul]

Putting the highly interesting future game predictions to one side has anyone else heard the worrying rumour that ticket prices will go up significantly next season?

I've heard nothing but won't be surprised if this proves true. Much depends on how folk perceive this. £60 would be a significant increase but on per match basis is £3 meaning Rovers per game price for ST holders would still be very competitive. However for many people finding £60 could be very difficult this year.

How the club approach prices for 2011/12 will be very interesting to see. I suspect increased ST prices are on the way. We've been protected from this for some time now.

[gumboots]

Putting the highly interesting future game predictions to one side has anyone else heard the worrying rumour that ticket prices will go up significantly next season?

They will almost certainly go up and for many any increase will be significant, but the owners will need to be aware that there are no people queueing up to buy season tickets at Rovers and are not likely to be for the immediate future so too big an increase will not be sensible - they don't want more empty seats than there are now.

[chaddyrovers]

Some pics of the owners at Brockhall last week. Pics are from the offical website

http://www.rovers.co.uk/page/NewsGallery/0,,10303~2290848,00.html

[47er]

Some pics of the owners at Brockhall last week. Pics are from the offical website

http://www.rovers.co.uk/page/NewsGallery/0,,10303~2290848,00.html

The niece doesn't look very interested!

[Veevs]

I've heard nothing but won't be surprised if this proves true. Much depends on how folk perceive this. £60 would be a significant increase but on per match basis is £3 meaning Rovers per game price for ST holders would still be very competitive. However for many people finding £60 could be very difficult this year.

How the club approach prices for 2011/12 will be very interesting to see. I suspect increased ST prices are on the way. We've been protected from this for some time now.

Def should be a seperate topic.. but all depends on close season, they may go for the marquee signing too pack the seats and increase it by the 60 which many will still pay and still keep us one of the cheapest ST by a long shot in the epl.

[Tom]

Ok we talk about us getting 9 points from those games, in a similar vein, how do you see Wigan getting 14 or so from these:

Sat 12 15:00 A Liverpool PREM

Wed 16 19:45 H Bolton FACP

Sat 26 15:00 H Man Utd PREM

March

Sat 5 17:30 A Manchester City PREM

Sat 19 15:00 H Birmingham PREM

April

Sat 2 15:00 H Tottenham PREM

Sat 9 15:00 A Chelsea PREM

Sat 16 15:00 A Blackpool PREM

Sat 23 15:00 A Sunderland PREM

Sat 30 15:00 H Everton PREM

May

Sat 7 15:00 A Aston Villa PREM

Sun 15 15:00 H West Ham Utd PREM

Sun 22 16:00 A Stoke City PREM

You could say the same for any team down there but currently we are still 5 points above the drop zone

[Parsonblue]

With just one more game to be played before the beginning of March, it struck me as an appropriate moment to assess the initial impact of the new owners on the club. Sadly, try as I might, I am struggling to find real positives at the moment. Whilst I have no doubt that their intentions were good, the reality is somewhat different.

In making the hasty decision to sack Allardyce and McDonald, Mrs Desai and family immediately put themselves under pressure. As we all know from past experience the Premier League is no place for a novice manager. Having made the decision to change the manager one might have hoped that an experienced guy might have been brought in. Instead, we promote the former number three, a man who, although highly regarded as a coach, has had no previous managerial experience. To assist him we appoint someone who Kean had no previous links to apart from the fact they shared the same agent. Watching the pair on the touchline today, trying to pass instructions to players who merely looked bemused reminded me of the days when Ince and Knox would bark out instructions - only to find that nobody was listening. At the moment our tactics leave much to be desired and don't appear to be changing despite their repeated failures.

Much was made of the January window and we were asked to judge them at the end of that month. Rumours of a £5 million warchest were scoffed at and we were told that money would not be a problem. Two players were brought in on loan, admittedly on high wages, and two younger players were signed for a total of £4.5 million. So far, Roque has managed to complete one full game due to injuries. Admittedly he looks a class act but if he can't stay fit what's the point? Furthermore, a player like Roque needs service. Today, against Newcastle, he spent much of the first half drifting back into midfield in search of the ball as nobody seemed able to find him with a pass. I am reminded of a tale I read about Roy Vernon, the old Rover, (now there was a class act) when he was playing with Great Harwood at the end of his career. The manager supposedly shouted at the static Vernon to move about more in search of the ball, to which Roy replied - "If they can't find me when I'm standing still how the bloody hell are they going find me if I'm moving about?" I'm not sure if that story is true but I'm sure Roque must feel the same when he sees the ball hit ten or fifteen yards ahead of him.

As for Jones, an honest trier who we were told was an up and downer as well as a defensive midfielder. All I can say is Mark Atkins he ain't. At the moment he seems to be struggling to get to grips with the pace of the Premier League. And that neatly brings me on to our South American chap and the lad from Barcelona. Both are said to be still some way away from Premier League fitness. Indeed, Kean has said that Formica needs to be built up to meet the physical demands of the Premier League. With just one more game before March one might ask how much of a contribution either player will make this season. They might be excellent buys for the future but for the here and now we are are left with a choice of Roberts, Kalinic and Diouf as our strike force with the odd appearance from Roque inbetween injuries.

Off the field we have seen John Williams depart as Mrs Desai opted to take her advice from elsewhere. That is her perogative. She has bought the club and is fully entitled to do with it as she pleases and listen to advice from wherever she pleases. However, over the past decade, the survival of Blackburn Rovers as a Premier League club has been finely balanced on a knife edge. On the field the balancing act has been performed by managers who had plenty of experience - Souness, Hughes (admittedly in international football) and Allardyce. Off the field things have been held together by John Williams knowledge of the club and his close working relationship with the managers. At a stoke that delicate balancing act has been destroyed.

With two difficult away games on the horizon and only five points separating us from the relegation places these are worrying times at Ewood Park. In making so many changes in such a short space of time, Mrs Desai has taken a huge gamble with the future of the club. With 32 points we ought to be able to stumble to the 40 point mark, although I admit, everytime I look at the fixture list I keep coming back to the fact that Bolton, Birmingham and Blackpool have to produce seven points and on the evidence of today that looks a mighty big ask. The dawn of this new era might yet end with the ignominy of relegation and at that point the Rovers will cease to be a value for money marketing tool for our owners.

[Mattyblue]

As always Parsonblue, bang on the money.

The decision making of Venky's midseason has been ridiculously risky and I can see us crawling to 40 points. The appointment of a managerial novice and the undermining of the best administrator in the league are absolutely brainless moves.

But they spent 5 million more than the Walker Trust would have done, so that's all that matters, right?