[Archived] The Relegation Battle Aftermath

[philipl]

Just looking at Sunderland's fixture, they are incredibly likely to play a major role in the relegation battle. They have to play: West Brom (h)/Birmingham (a)/ Wigan (h)/ Fulham (h)/ Bolton (a)/ Wolves (h) and West Ham(a).

That is frightening for us given their current form.The last thing we want is them handing out points to our relegaton rivals. Indeed, its not beyond possibility that they could end up in a relegation scrap themselves so dire is their present run.

Sunderland's fixture list is a big reason why somebody is going down with 40 points!

The number of people predicting wins against Brum and Bolton and Rovers just staying up is scary- I just do not see us winning both those games and have a very strong feeling that Owen Coyle will hand his "protoge" a bit of a lesson when the Trotters come a visiting.

Massive task for the Rovers fans at Ewood- Brum, Notlob and the two Mancs will all bring large and noisy followings we will have to out sing.

By the way it is very dangerous to extrapolate that Arsenal performance- they were out of sorts and lethargic with zero closing down when we were on the ball which allowed us to pick our passes. That is not a luxury we are likely to face in any of our opponents between now and the end of the season.

[Kamy100]

I am starting to think that 41 points is going to be the magic number this year. Blackpool looked demoralised yesterday, first time that I have seen them show some fear. They have a very tough game against Arsenal on Saturday who will know that they are dancing in the last chance saloon with regards to their title chances, I can’t see Wolves, Wigan and West Ham picking up more than 9 points each. Ian Holloway reckons that 39 points will be enough I think that 41 points are going to be needed.

So where do these points come from? Rovers players will have taken a great deal of belief from Saturday’s result. The game against Birmingham is going to be completely different to Saturday, the onus will be on us to attack. Brum are highly organised side who work very hard on closing teams down, they have two excellent centre halves (Johnson and Ridgewell), no point lumping balls up as that will play to the strengths, would be better playing into feet of strikers and turning them, Junior will also be crucial with his ability to run and defenders. We really need to target this game as a “win”, if we can do that then it’ll leave us 5 points shy of the 41 point mark. Where these points are going to come from I am not sure, at the moment the focus should be on Birmingham and let’s see where we are after that game.

[Ralfinho]

ive got us finishing 17th on 40 points with -16 GD and Blackpool, Wigan and Birmingham relegated

[LeChuck]

ive got us finishing 17th on 40 points with -16 GD and Blackpool, Wigan and Birmingham relegated

I take it you don't rate Birmingham then! They have a game in hand over everybody and are on the same points as us. You must have them down as barely picking up a point in their last eight games?

I'm guessing Wigan and Blackpool plus either us or Wolves. If we can organise defensively like Saturday then Wolves, if it's like the rest of Kean's tenure then us.

[Neil Weaver]

The number of people predicting wins against Brum and Bolton and Rovers just staying up is scary- I just do not see us winning both those games and have a very strong feeling that Owen Coyle will hand his "protoge" a bit of a lesson when the Trotters come a visiting.

I've felt the same about Bolton for a while Philip, the straw I'm clutching though is that they've got an FA Cup semi-final to provide a welcome distraction (even though it'll have happened by the time we play em) and maybe the final a couple of weeks after our game, so one or two might be taking things easy to avoid injury.

I know the semi-final is a while away, but without that distraction I don't think they'd have got beaten by Brum on Saturday.

[Ralfinho]

I take it you don't rate Birmingham then! They have a game in hand over everybody and are on the same points as us. You must have them down as barely picking up a point in their last eight games?

I'm guessing Wigan and Blackpool plus either us or Wolves. If we can organise defensively like Saturday then Wolves, if it's like the rest of Kean's tenure then us.

Birmingham's game in hand is against Chelsea, I just hope we dont need a result against wolves on the final day

[jim mk2]

Birmingham's game in hand is against Chelsea, I just hope we dont need a result against wolves on the final day

A 5-0 defeat is a result, albeit a bad one.

[Ralfinho]

A 5-0 defeat is a result, albeit a bad one.

You know what I meant!!!!

[rebelmswar]

On the euphoria of the Arsenal draw, and putting aside my misgivings with Kean (or perhaps trusting in the senior players, such as Salgado, Samba and Nelsen), I did the BBC league predictor. Amazingly, I had us at 8th with 49 points:

Rovers 3 Birmingham 1

Everton 0 Rovers 2

Rovers 1 ManC 2

Rovers 2 Bolton 1

WHam 2 Rovers 3

Rovers 1 ManU 3

Wolves 1 Rovers 3.

Everton was also at 49 points but took 7th on goal difference, while Sunderland was 9th.

Wolves (36), West Ham (34) and Wigan (33) are the teams relegated.

ManU (87), Arsenal (80), Chelsea (76), ManC (75), Spurs (63) and Liverpool (56) are the top 6 squads.

And Blackpool stay up at 15th on 43 points.

May I be hailed as a psychic or Kean a genuis, or both.

May I add rabidly optimistic?

[OsloRover]

We really need to target this game as a “win”, if we can do that then it’ll leave us 5 points shy of the 41 point mark. Where these points are going to come from I am not sure, at the moment the focus should be on Birmingham and let’s see where we are after that game.

We'll be on 37 if we win mate, only 4 up to 41.

[Presty On Tour]

Birmingham's run in is absolutely shocking.

They are in big trouble.

[Blue blood]

Just looking at Sunderland's fixture, they are incredibly likely to play a major role in the relegation battle. They have to play: West Brom (h)/Birmingham (a)/ Wigan (h)/ Fulham (h)/ Bolton (a)/ Wolves (h) and West Ham(a).

That is frightening for us given their current form.The last thing we want is them handing out points to our relegaton rivals. Indeed, its not beyond possibility that they could end up in a relegation scrap themselves so dire is their present run.

Big fear for me too this. Sure they've a lot of quality in the team but the way they're playing you can't see this bad run ending any time soon. With too many points (and too many teams below them) to worry about relegation and little chance of europe in the league the team will not be going through the motions - almost ideal fare for relegation teams to face. Feel that it could well be a case of which teams capitalise on their poor form will stay up. With things as tight as they are 3 points at the moment seems a massive amount of points and makes a huge difference, and this could well be a case of teams kicking themselves for not taking advantage of this come the end of the season. (Although the same thing could be said for us and the Blackpool game.)

I take it you don't rate Birmingham then! They have a game in hand over everybody and are on the same points as us. You must have them down as barely picking up a point in their last eight games?

I'm guessing Wigan and Blackpool plus either us or Wolves. If we can organise defensively like Saturday then Wolves, if it's like the rest of Kean's tenure then us.

Birmingham's run in is absolutely shocking.

They are in big trouble.

My view's pretty similar to Le Chuck's, Wigan, Blackpool and one other, probably us or Wolves. Roy's hooneymoon period may last long enough to save WBA, but if they loose soon, it'd be very interesting to see how they react. I've a feeling once their run finishes that they'll find it very hard to get going again.

As for Brum they may have a shocking run in but of all the teams down there for some reason I fancy them most to get a suprise result/win - like in the league cup final vs Arsenal. I think they'll pull a win or two from somewhere to get the points they need.

Encouragingly West Ham for all their upturn in form are still in the relegation zone, and Aston Villa seem to be even less united than us, Blackpool are also looking very vulnerable and Wigan have to be the worst team I've seen for quite a while, so there's still some call for optimism. Things are pretty shocking with us at the moment but it seems that that's the way with most clubs. despite my reservations with Kean - even in light of the Arsenal result - there's a chance we could stay up by default.

[tony gale's mic]

My prediction left me shocked at the end. After trying to be as realistic as possible, here's how the bottom of the table would look:

11 Fulham -1 44points

12 Birmingham -15 44points

13 Stoke -6 43points

14 West Ham -13 43points

15 Blackpool -21 43points

16 Newcastle -6 42points

17 Blackburn -14 42points

18 West Brom -17 42points

19 Wigan -23 39points

20 Wolves -19 38points

Mental. Our results went:

Vs Brum (Home) 2-1 Win

Vs Everton (Away) 2-1 loss

Vs Man City (Home) 2-2 Draw

Vs Bolton (Home) 2-1 Win

Vs West Ham (Away) 2-1 loss

Vs Man Utd (Home) 1-3 loss

Vs Wolves (Away) 1-1 Draw

So that's 8 points and would leave us 17th on goal difference if the other results go as I thought. It certainly going to be a frightening end to the season - only 4 points seperated 8th from 18th.

This is very worrying since there's a fair bit of optimism here, especially since us beating both Bolton and Brum at home, together with drawing at home to City who just spanked Sunderland is assuming a lot. We could easily end up drawing one or both of those games, and it's probably more likely we won't get anything against City.

However there's no prediction there I could realistically describe as "pessimistic" except maybe the loss away to West Ham which might be a draw if we're lucky.

[Hughesy]

3 points on saturday and I feel we will be safe...as I think on 37 with 6 to play will allow us to get over 42 pts.

[Majiball]

I want it to be mathematically impossible before I start counting my chickens.

[Billy Castell]

I've just had a go, and we escape by having 1 better goal difference than Wigan in 18th, with Villa 16th by 2 goals, and West Ham 7 goals better off. All the above have 41 points, with 7 points separating 18th from 8th (Fulham). Don't think my nerves would cope with that.

[Steve Moss]

May I add rabidly optimistic?

In no particular order, I'm a beer drinking, gun owning (37 firearms, with many thousands of rounds of ammo), church going, conservative/libertarian, financially affluent, civically involved, heterosexual, former Marine Arizonan. In my more lucid moments, I understand that I'm the type of American that typifies both the best and worse of the USA. Rabidly optimistic about sums up my world view.

We, the Rovers, are perfectly capable of kicking butt and taking some names. What remains to be seen is whether Kean and/or the senior players (I don't care which) are pumped up enough (i.e. sufficiently rabid) to make it happen. Samba and Salgado seem to have the juice. Whether they are alone remains to be seen.

Frankly, if we fail it won't be because of bad ref calls, a poor squad or crap owners/manager. All of that is relative, and plenty of other squads labor under similar or even worse burdens, considered in aggregate. We'll only fail if the leaders amongst the Rovers, whether named Kean, Samba, Salgado or Nelson, fail to take ownership of this season. If one or more step up, we'll be secure for one more year.

[Tom]

I sadly think we'll go down in 19th above only Wigan.

Next week is a massive set of fixtures with 6 rivals playing each other

Birmingham v Sunderland

Blackpool v Wigan

Everton v Blackburn

West Brom v Chelsea

West Ham v Aston Villa

Worrying if we don't get a point.

[DE.]

I think 38 points may be enough, I had us scraping to that by drawing with Bolton, West Ham and Wolves. Blackpool, Wolves and Wigan all have very difficult run ins and won't pick up many points. Will be our only saving grace. With the remaining fixtures for all teams I think 17th is an optimistic target.

[Tom]

You know the worst thing for me is just not knowing I just wish I could fast forward to the end of the season now.

These 6 games are pivotal for the future of the club, survive and we could bring in a new manager and build something good again here, go down and oblivion beckons.

[DE.]

You know the worst thing for me is just not knowing I just wish I could fast forward to the end of the season now.

These 6 games are pivotal for the future of the club, survive and we could bring in a new manager and build something good again here, go down and oblivion beckons.

Probably worse than that is experiencing this knowing that if our owners hadn't been so utterly stupid we very likely would not be remotely near the relegation zone and more likely probing into the top half of the table.

But hey, no more dull Allardyce football. We've got excitement now. Just the wrong kind.

[47er]

My prediction left me shocked at the end. After trying to be as realistic as possible, here's how the bottom of the table would look:

11 Fulham -1 44points

12 Birmingham -15 44points

13 Stoke -6 43points

14 West Ham -13 43points

15 Blackpool -21 43points

16 Newcastle -6 42points

17 Blackburn -14 42points

18 West Brom -17 42points

19 Wigan -23 39points

20 Wolves -19 38points

Mental. Our results went:

Vs Brum (Home) 2-1 Win

Vs Everton (Away) 2-1 loss

Vs Man City (Home) 2-2 Draw

Vs Bolton (Home) 2-1 Win

Vs West Ham (Away) 2-1 loss

Vs Man Utd (Home) 1-3 loss

Vs Wolves (Away) 1-1 Draw

So that's 8 points and would leave us 17th on goal difference if the other results go as I thought. It certainly going to be a frightening end to the season - only 4 points seperated 8th from 18th.

So how frightening is it now? Where are the 7 points coming from?

[Hughesy]

Next week is a massive set of fixtures

Blackpool v Wigan

West Ham v Aston Villa

Worrying if we don't get a point.

The important two....2 draws please.

[booth]

I sadly think we'll go down in 19th above only Wigan.

Next week is a massive set of fixtures with 6 rivals playing each other

Birmingham v Sunderland

Blackpool v Wigan

Everton v Blackburn

West Brom v Chelsea

West Ham v Aston Villa

Worrying if we don't get a point.

I hadn't looked at the other fixtures next week.

I'm about to prepare the noose.

We're screwed.

[RevidgeBlue]

I sadly think we'll go down in 19th above only Wigan.

Next week is a massive set of fixtures with 6 rivals playing each other

Birmingham v Sunderland

Blackpool v Wigan

Everton v Blackburn

West Brom v Chelsea

West Ham v Aston Villa

Worrying if we don't get a point.

Interesting.

If Birmingham beat Sunderland then incredibly the Black Cats are right in it imo after a run of three points from twenty seven since selling Darren Bent.

Wins for Blackpool/Wigan or West Ham won't be conclusive either way imo.

West Brom should be more or less safe now.

Wins for Birmingham, us or Villa next weekend and each will probably survive.

Important we get at least a point at Goodison having failed to win today to keep our unbeaten run such as it is going.