[Archived] The Relegation Battle Aftermath

[Gav]

Would be nice but not seeing it. We never win at West Ham ...

Exactly, first thing that jumped out at me, write that one off for starters.

Depends which city team turns up, we could get a draw, and we need to go all out attack against Bolton, could be our only hope.

[Tom]

Avoid defeat at west ham and wolves and we'd have a chance, if we get beat off either I imagine they will be ok over us.

I really just want this season to be over

[Hughesy]

WE NEED to be safe by Wolves away....otherwise that will be a nightmare away day, one which il attend, but not a nice on to attend if we need something.

I still think we can win one of our next 2 home games, id rather it was City so it comes sooner rather than later, but it wouldnt suprise me if it was Bolton.

If we can go to West Ham and get a point & win 1 game - then im sure that will see us safe...

Also a key game here - Sunday 15th May.....Wigan v West Ham

[rog of the rovers]

I just did a predictor with a win vs. Bolton and losing the other 4 games and believe it or not, if results go for us, we could stay up with 38!

Crazy season, and unfortunately for us and our nerves, its going to go right down to the wire!

NEXT THREE/FOUR GAMES

Rovers

City (h)

Bolton (h)

West Ham (a)

West Ham

Chelsea (a)

City (a)

Blackburn (h)

Wigan

Sunderland (a)

Everton (h)

Villa (a)

Blackpool

Newcastle (h)

Stoke (h)

Spurs (a)

Wolves

Fulham (h)

Stoke (a)

Birmingham (a)

West Brom (h)

[Parsonblue]

I have always felt that 41 points would be needed to feel safe. However, that seems too far out of reach after Saturday's inept performance. I'm now hoping that 39 points with a good goal difference will be enough. However, if we only get to 39 points we are relying on the teams below us failing to pick up points. Defeat at either West Ham or Wolves, whilst it might not be enough to save those clubs it would surely send us down. Realistically, four points from City and Bolton remains our best hope of survival. Sadly, since Kean has been out-thought by virtually every manager he has come up against I can't say I'm overly confident of him getting the better of Mancini and Coyle.

[67splitscreen]

No win in ten says it all, four draws from our last six games can't see it happening.

S/Land and Stoke finding some form may help us along the way, both playing clubs below us three times.

[broadsword]

Been chatting to West Ham-supporting mate.

Says his team have absolutely no fight left and are nailed-on to go down.

Can't shake the feeling it will be us, Blackpool and West Ham to drop.

[Athlete]

Been chatting to West Ham-supporting mate.

Says his team have absolutely no fight left and are nailed-on to go down.

Can't shake the feeling it will be us, Blackpool and West Ham to drop.

somehow can see west ham pulling it round in the games against us , wigan and sunderland sending us wigan + Blackpool down

[alexanders]

Next weekend as everyother for the rest of the season will be extremely exciting.

Not only watching Rovers matches, but paying attention to all the other scores.

Im only 26 yrs old and I dont think my heart can take this end of season.

[MarkBRFC]

Ive just done the predictor again and have us finishing in 17th with 39 points. One point clear of the drop zone.

That is with Blackpool, West Ham & Wigan all losing this weekend, with ourselves and Wolves managing to pick up a point.

So any positive results from that first 3, and i might have to do it again on Saturday!

[Ozz]

The `predictor` thing is really easy to use. You just need to enter 2-0 defeat for all our matches and hey presto-we get relegated. Just the goal difference that may be out.

[rog of the rovers]

Stats comparison

In 98/99 (Relegation season) we had 32 points from 33 played - TOTAL 35 points 19th position

In 03/04 (aka The Stead year) we had 33 points from 33 played - TOTAL 44 points 15th position

In 04/05 (Hughes' first year) we had 39 points from 33 played - TOTAL 42 points 15th position

In 08/09 (Allardyce's first year) we had 34 points from 33 played - TOTAL 41 points 15th position

In 10/11 we have 35 points from 33 played

[Iceman]

Rog, in 10/11 we also have no manager as far as I'm concerned.

[broadsword]

More to the point:

pre-kean: 21 points from 17 played

post-kean: 14 points from 16 played.

Extrapolating the post-Kean form to the remainder of the season gives us 39 points. (But of course, takes no account of who our remaining games are against.)

As a little taster for next season (if we stay up), over a 38-game Prem season 14/16 equates to 33 points.

[Athlete]

More to the point:

pre-kean: 21 points from 17 played

post-kean: 14 points from 16 played.

Extrapolating the post-Kean form to the remainder of the season gives us 39 points. (But of course, takes no account of who our remaining games are against.)

As a little taster for next season (if we stay up), over a 38-game Prem season 14/16 equates to 33 points.

our only hope this weekend is that Wigan , Wolves , Blackpool + WHU all lose before we play Monday and hope in vain that we can snatch at least a point on Monday , Can't really hope for anything better cos under this clown who are we going to beat ??

[Tom]

our only hope this weekend is that Wigan , Wolves , Blackpool + WHU all lose before we play Monday and hope in vain that we can snatch at least a point on Monday , Can't really hope for anything better cos under this clown who are we going to beat ??

That's the bonus of playing after, if results go our way a little less pressure will be on and the feeling wil be a result would really push us on, on the flipside if results go against us the pressure mounts :s

[RoversSG]

BBC predictor link

Thanks for the link. I just tried it and I had us on 38 points at the end of the season and finishing 16th above Wigan on 36 points, West Ham, Wolves and Blackpool all on 35 points. Of course, any of the 5 teams just pick up a win somewhere and the whole equation will change.

[CAPT KAYOS]

I did the predictor thing again last week before the Everton game (had us down to get beat 1 nil) - the other month I think I had us on 41pts.

As with others ended up with us on 39 pts going into the final game at Wolves with them also on 39pts (win against notlob and drawing with either Citeh /wham)

One thing is no surer certain though - come the Wolves game - if we need to win we won't.

[philipl]

Just run that predictor thing- this is not scientific but it is pretty reasonable to say we are not staying up if:

- we do not win at least one game between now and the season end

- we lose at West Ham

- we leave it to the last day at Molyneux

Very unlikely to see Man U wrapping up the title before they come to Ewood but quite possible they will be presented with the title if they win on our patch- and how bad is that going to feel?

Crikey this feels bad already... we really needed a performance at Everton and we completely failed there.

[Hasta]

I've just done the predictor thing updating after every weekend to see where we stand.

It is reasonably possible that avoiding defeat at West Ham practically sends them down. We'd still be in the thick of it mind you.

Even being slightly optimistic tho, I am struggling to see any scenario where we do not go to Wolves needing something to be sure even if they are already down themselves.

[RevidgeBlue]

The next 3 games are key, We need at least one win from the forthcoming two home games, four points might even be enough if results fall favourably.

As Hasta says, West Ham's next three games are against Chelsea and City then us so if they lose the first two and we can avoid defeat there, they're probably screwed.

[RibbleValleyRover]

It's so close this season I think the relegation teams will come from three of:

Rovers

Blackpool

West Ham

Wolves

Wigan

(Possibly Sunderland if they continue their bad run).

Just done the predictor and I had the bottom three as:

18th- West Ham- 38 points.

19th- Wolves- 37 points.

20th- Rovers- 36 points.

Might be seen as pessimistic (I think it's actually realistic) but I don't see Rovers picking up another win this season. In fact I only see us picking one more point this season and that's from the Bolton game, Bolton don't look the same side without Holden.

[RevidgeBlue]

It's so close this season I think the relegation teams will come from three of:

Rovers

Blackpool

West Ham

Wolves

Wigan

(Possibly Sunderland if they continue their bad run).

Just done the predictor and I had the bottom three as:

18th- West Ham- 38 points.

19th- Wolves- 37 points.

20th- Rovers- 36 points.

Might be seen as pessimistic (I think it's actually realistic) but I don't see Rovers picking up another win this season. In fact I only see us picking one more point this season and that's from the Bolton game, Bolton don't look the same side without Holden.

Wher are Blackpool's wins going to come from? I can hardly see them picking up another point.

Our next two home games will probably define our outcome. I also can't see us losing both away games at Wolves and West Ham.

[RibbleValleyRover]

Wher are Blackpool's wins going to come from? I can hardly see them picking up another point.

Our next two home games will probably define our outcome. I also can't see us losing both away games at Wolves and West Ham.

Blackpool's remaining fixtures:

Newcastle-H

Stoke-H

Spurs- A

Bolton-H

Man Utd-A

Newcastle don't have much to play for and their away record isn't that great. Stoke at home could be an interesting game and Stoke could be distracted with thoughts on the FA Cup final. Bolton travelling to Blackpool won't be easy, they could have a hangover over the Stoke cup loss plus without Holden they don't look as potent.

I could see Blackpool picking up points looking at their run in, though at the same time it wouldn't surprise me if they don't.

When you look at teams like Blackpool and West Ham they have players who would change a game and get them an unlikely result, could you say the same for Rovers? I don't think so.

West Ham should beat us at their place considering our away record this season and our recent historical record against them. They have players like Cole, Hitzlesperger and Ba who on their day can win games. Tough ask for Rovers to go to Wolves last game of the season and pick up a win, if both sides need the win to stay up I'm going with the Home team to get it.

[DE.]

Blackpool will go down, their confidence is all but gone and they don't have the quality to win without it, as losing 3-1 at home to Wigan showed.

West Ham have an extremely difficult run in, they always seem to get out of it but if they're going to go down any year it will be this year.

Wigan have a fairly decent run in in comparison but still won't win many, we'll be about level on points with them come the end of the season I think.

Wolves run in is so-so, I think their survival will come down to their match with us on the last day of the season. Whether we'll still be in it or not depends how we do Vs. Bolton & West Ham.

Our run in isn't great but if we scrape three draws together and do not lose against West Ham & Wolves we'll stay up IMO. Defeat against either West Ham or Wolves will likely consign us to relegation, as I don't see us getting many points elsewhere