[Archived] Mubarak gone

[philipl]

I have been transfixed and astonished by the recent events in North Africa.

Ben Ali going in Tunisia is remarkable enough although much of Tunisia could pass for being European if you go there but the fall of Mubarak is an astonishing turn of events.

The bravery, determination, unity and passivism of the people of North Africa has been a wonder to see and I will admit to tears of joy at those fantastic scenes from Tahrir Square tonight.

Of course the gains could be lost or tarnished Ukrainian-style or be made to stick as they have pretty well throughout former Eastern Europe. Egypt has the advantage of having two enormous global figures on the world stage- Mohammed El Barredei and Amr Moussa- who can counterbalance the military and give leadership and direction to the period of transition whilst the smaller richer and more homogenious Tunisia is having to grow its own leaders after decades of destruction of any political diversity from the robber Ben Ali family.

Will we see a similar domino effect as we saw miraculously in 1989 and 1991 when suddenly the world became a much better place for so many peoples. The fall of Gadafi, Bashir, the house of Saud or the Gulf monarchies seem to be on the remote side of inconceivable but so would the changes in Tunisia and Egypt viewed from the perspective of New Year's Day 2011.

[thenodrog]

I don't suppose Mubarak was everybody's cup of tea but he did at least keep the peace with Israel. Instability in the middle east does most definitely not make me feel the need to shed tears of joy.

Rum beggars though muslims. They keep banging on about disliking democracy and yet they actually seem to need the stability afforded by various dictatorships.

Have you any opinion on what will they actually end up with in Egypt Philip? Military dictatorship under the governence of the army and some Gaddaffi type? A democratically elected system of govt perhaps or will we see a swing to muslim fundamentalism? How about Tunisia? Which way will they move?

[philipl]

I think Muslim Fundamentalism is the least likely outcome. The under-educated countryside might vote mullah but the educated city folk are both more numerous and more influential. My guess is that the end result in Egypt will look something like Indonesia whilst Tunisia might go further towards a fully free and functioning democracy.

European countries have had Christian Democratic parties for donkeys years and there is nothing in the Quran that blocks Islamic Democratic parties from being as democratic and pragmatic as their Christian equivalents.

[cletus]

Let`s hope the more extreme islamic fundamentalists keep their distance. It is easy for a disillusioned people to get sucked in to these more extreme forms of religion. Egypt has a lot to offer the world. Let the mad mullahs take control & risk the tourism & the money it brings drying up.

[neekoy]

Kind of makes you think whatever countries could (could have) achieved with the dedication of these people. Certainly exciting for them, let's hope they get a chance to elect someone for the people and not a puppet for the political forces of religion.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Very little chance of the Brotherhood either running or been elected in Egypt, Its more likely we will see a centre left party elected. The key to all of this is the new governments stance on the middle east peace treaty as Egypt’s role is absolutely key to peace both politically and culturally. The next Arab regimes under threat are Algeria and Jordan.

The House of Saud will not be removed any time soon as the West has far to much to much to loose if instability hit’s the Arabian peninsula, as do the Wahhabists who have a symbiotic relationship with the ruling Saudi elite. .In fact I would go as far to say that there is more chance of a democratic revolution in Iran that in Saudi Arabia.

[Aberdeen Blue]

Just a point with respect to Libya as potential to be the next for revolt. The Libyan system is very different to that of Tunisia or Egypt in the the Colonel has fed a lot of the oil revenue back down to the general population.

I am actually in Tripoli right now and the general feeling from the people I speak to is that there is no groudswell of opposition to the regime. Most people here are pretty happy with their lot with low taxes, fuel and food prices etc. Yes there is unemployment but most peole that want a job in Tripoli are found one by the government. We have to hire a given number of locals per ex-pat or rotator and occasionally more on top - this is not optional.

I am sure there are disgruntled locals but not to the extent that we have seen elsewhere. Algeria is next to go belly up for me and I suspect that that could turn very nasty before it is resolved.

Anyway, I am out of here on the 16th so if it kicks off after that so be it

[philipl]

Actually a democratic Iran is not that difficult to foresee.

Saudi is too big and too vicious for any sort of movement to get going.

I would agree with Aberdeen blue about Libya but with a remarkably small population and only two major cities, things could get triggered by word of mouth there. Very unlikely.

Bahrain with its Sunni/Shia mix, its location and financial services sector is looking distinctly wobbly this evening. If Bahrain over-throws its Sheikh the repercussions across the world will be enormous despite its tiny size.

[neekoy]

Well well well, three holes in the ground.....seems there has been some developments overnight with anti government protests happening throughout the region. Let's hope this escalates quickly.

[dave birch]

Be careful what you wish for.

The last thing the world needs is more instability in this area.

[neekoy]

I prefer instability created by the people then outside interference, at least they get what they want without any of our men and women having to die for it.

I can see only good from this, I don't think they have to choose between dictators and theocracies, I hold hope for democratic institutions.

[Aberdeen Blue]

Actually a democratic Iran is not that difficult to foresee.

I'd go along with that philipl. Haven’t been there for a couple years but there does not seem to be the factionalization that you see in Egypt for example.

Just for peoples context; Libya 6.5m population, Egypt 80m population crammed into a land mass approx half the size of Libya. This plus the points I made above regarding the social infrastructure etc make Libya a very different situation to its neighbours.

[thenodrog]

Just for peoples context; Libya 6.5m population, Egypt 80m population crammed into a land mass approx half the size of Libya. This plus the points I made above regarding the social infrastructure etc make Libya a very different situation to its neighbours.

Not exactly 'crammed' in comparison to England AB.

[philipl]

Not exactly 'crammed' in comparison to England AB.

Far far more crammed in fact if you look at habitable space.

25% of the entire Arabic population lives in Egypt which is why the fall of Mubarak is epoch-making.

The Bahrain Sheikh could not be handling his problems any worse if he had tried- he will quickly turn a request for reform- a degree of local democracy, reform of local police and an end to torture- which nobody could possibly disagree with into a need for him to be booted out.

[Aberdeen Blue]

Not exactly 'crammed' in comparison to England AB.

Plenty of room to pitch your tent if you fancy it

[thenodrog]

Just a point with respect to Libya as potential to be the next for revolt. The Libyan system is very different to that of Tunisia or Egypt in the the Colonel has fed a lot of the oil revenue back down to the general population.

Actually a democratic Iran is not that difficult to foresee.

Saudi is too big and too vicious for any sort of movement to get going.

I would agree with Aberdeen blue about Libya but with a remarkably small population and only two major cities, things could get triggered by word of mouth there. Very unlikely.

Bahrain with its Sunni/Shia mix, its location and financial services sector is looking distinctly wobbly this evening. If Bahrain over-throws its Sheikh the repercussions across the world will be enormous despite its tiny size.

Ooops!

This is interesting...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12482311

[Aberdeen Blue]

Ooops!

This is interesting...

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-12482311

Ha ha, what do I know!!

It was interesting on the way the the airport in Tripoli yesterday afternoon as every major traffic junction was crawling with cops and soldiers complete with APC's and tanks; not something you usually see in Triploi. There is a "Day of Rage" planned for Tripoli today and Ghadaffi was even on TV the other night saying he may actually join the demonstrators himself as he asserts that the country is run by the "Jhamerya" or peoples councils, not him, which of course is bull poop.

Not surprized about Benghazi though as the eastern province has always been anti Ghadaffi, different tribe and all that. The good Colonel has done some pretty nasty things to the inhabitants of Benghazi in the past also. Try a search for Abu Salim prison massacre as an example. Also public execution of dissidents in the citys football stadium - bit of a twist on half time entertainment.....

Interestingly I still have two of my drilling engineers in country who were due to travel home today but we cannot reach their mobiles or blackberries. We know they are OK as we got in touch via land line to the hotel but the mobile networks appear to have been shut down.

[thenodrog]

Rum do all this. It seems that the entire political structure of the Arab nations has been a powder keg of unresolved issues waiting for a spark. Tunisia started out as food riots down to massive rises in the basics (watch this space for the rest of the world). Egyptians were fed up of Mubarak, and now Bahrain's unrest is based on the usual sectarian issue of Shia v Sunni whilst Aberdeen Blue informs us that half of Libya wants Ghadaffi out cos of tribalism.

One things for sure.... The times they are a'changin.

[cletus]

I wonder what the British government are thinking about with the Libyan 'situation'??

Yes, they`ve got to tow the 'freedom of the people' line....but have only recently paved the way for mega oil deals with Gadaffi-duck & his cronies, by aiding the release of the Lockerbie bomber.

If owd plastic mush gets overthrown by the people, the British government will probably have to start brown-nosing the new leaders too. Pity we haven`t any more mass murderers to use as bargaining tools

[philipl]

The Libyan didn't do the Lockerbie bombing- he got shipped out rather than have his innocence proved in the appeal.

[philipl]

Secular, not Islamic revolutions

[adopted scouser]

Worrying that it's starting to kick off in the middle east, and we are making troops redundant, binning nimrod, binning Harrier jump jets etc etc.

[Bazzanotsogreat]

Worrying that it's starting to kick off in the middle east, and we are making troops redundant, binning nimrod, binning Harrier jump jets etc etc.

If it does “kick off” in the Middle-East it wouldn’t be a conventional war with tanks, jets and war ships. It would be more akin to the asymmetric conflict we have seen in Iraq and Afghanistan; guerrilla tactics that negates the advantage of large hardware.

My hope from all of this is that the revolution spreads to Iran, whose repressed, young populace is screaming out for change.

[thenodrog]

My hope from all of this is that the revolution spreads to Iran, whose repressed, young populace is screaming out for change.

No doubt the septics will make sure of that.

[AlanK]

This is from a poster on a F1 forum I visit.

A different perspective not to be confused with my views.

Dear F1Fs,

Many of you may know me on here, specially from the live blogs. What many of you may not know is that I am from Bahrain and I've never been more patriotic. A lot has been said on this blog about the current situation in Bahrain and many have mixed feelings about whether F1 shall continue or not..

The answer? The decision has nothing to do with Bernie Ecclestone or the FiA, it's Bahrain's decision only. As you all said it's a matter of safety, and the Bahraini government will not allow the race to happen if the situation isn't resolved (I wrote this before reading that Bernie said the same thing too). No matter how much Bernie pushes for it, it will not happen unless Bahrain is safe enough, and believe me the last thing we would want is for something to go wrong with the world watching us. So rest assured it will only happen if the Bahraini people want it to..

As an F1 fan, yes I am devastated that my "peaceful" "business friendly" country is all of a sudden considered not safe enough to hold the most important event I look forward to every year. More importantly, as a Bahraini I have not yet thought about F1 since the first day of "peaceful protests" ironically called "the day of rage" that started on the 14th of February. I haven't had a restful night's sleep, NOT because I'm not safe. I'm safe as any of you are, and I thank my fellow F1F's Stephfarnsworth, Magnificent Geoffrey, and PeachyF1 for asking about me on twitter. And thank you for all F1F's who voiced their concerns on F1F for the people of Bahrain.. I've read numerous comments that looked down upon my country.. I felt I have to reply I have to say something but I guess I was just too emotionally drained.. Too sad.. too scared, what will happen to my country? This NEVER happened before, and mostly the media is not helping!

What saddens me the most other than the obvious devastating loss of lives that shook Bahrain to the core is the International Media. I have officially lost trust in ALL media. They always say the media lies, media sells, and we all learned to take everything with a pinch of salt anyway, but to experience it firsthand the worst thing any citizen can go through! And after experiencing it, I wouldn't wish it upon my enemy.

I never knew to what extent can they lie and how detrimental can that be. And yes I am talking about the major news anchors the CNN, BBC, and Sky. Many people on this website, which I consider my favorite F1 site, have also said the same things about Bahrain, but guess what? I don't blame any of you at all!! This is what the media have been feeding you. If this occurred elsewhere in the world and I saw this on the news, I would probably assume the same thing! But not anymore.. I'm hurt, I feel betrayed by the media. I'm not saying what you all saw is not true, I'm saying it is one-sided! Ask any Bahraini or go on twitter and see what the Bahrainis are saying.. #Bahrain

Before going on I want to make something very clear.. We are ALL devastated and beyond sad for the loss of lives. Every Bahraini citizen is dear and as Bahrainis we will not allow the shed of more lives, neither will our government. It was just going to be 1 day of "peaceful" protests to ask for certain rights, but it soon escalated death threats to the HM King and wanting to change the rule. Did all Bahrainis want that? Absolutely not.. Did the media show that? No.. We are happy with our constitutional monarchy that has an elected parliament through which we can make our voices heard. The stability of having one constant leadership is much more beneficial to us than having the leadership change every 4 years. It may not suit everyone, but the majority of Bahraini people wouldn't want to have it any other way to be honest.

We all wanted the violence and the use of force to stop. With every death our sadness grew. But the protestors were clearly saying that they were going out illegally to send their families and loved ones out there no matter what the circumstances were and will sacrifice their lives. Now I don't want to start pointing fingers because HRH the Crown Prince himself said that he's not blaming anyone, so whom am I to do so.. (Bahrain now is in a state of unity and progression thanks to the Crown Prince's beyond humbling, very wise initiative which I will go into in a bit)

It's enough to state some facts that speak for themselves: Not all Bahrainis were at the Lulu roundabout, in fact the majority weren't! But did the media show that? No.. The protests at the lulu roundabout were in small thousands and captured the attention of the world. But did you hear about the 100,000 rally for peace and solidarity who were all pro-government? Some channels barely mentioned it, but did they take the same amount of videos and asked the same amount of people about their views?

Why would "oppressed" people go out in support and rally in thousands and pledge their allegiance and loyalty to the King who is seen known in Bahrain as the "King of Hearts", but is now suddenly described as a dictator? HM King Hamad is THE most tolerant King I know and is known for his numerous royal pardons to the anti-government protestors for years.

Did you know that there are 50 brutally injured policemen whom we have all seen graphic images on TV of and many have visited them in the hospital. From being run over with a car, severed fingers, and the many of them who were stabbed using the swords, knives, and even a few guns were found in Lulu roundabout. Let me honestly ask you.. In any country if a citizen only assaults a police man, what happens? They weren't only openly assaulting them but brutally attacking them. None are held into custody, accept for the one who ran over the police man. Think of your own countries, and imagine if this happened..

Some of reported that the ambulances weren't allowed onto the scene, please just take a look at all the videos on the websites and you'll clearly see the ambulances lined up. Yesterday they reported many dead, but no lives were lost, and only one was in a critical condition. Why the contradicting stories? What's sadly happened here is social network/media war. People spreading false information, and many have spoken about it. One of the most reputable journalist on twitter who I won't mention turned into a national joke for his false reporting and listening to those lies. The message learnt? The rule of thumb in journalism, make sure you have a credible source.

All my life we co-existed as Sunnis and Shiites living side by side, we may have our differences but have always managed to rise above them and see each others as fellow Bahrainis regardless of which sect we come from. We never imagined that a time would come and we would wake up to shaken Bahrain and see forces used in our own ground.

In that darkest hour, HRH the Crown Prince - whom you're all familiar with from F1 races, showed up on a live show on national TV unannounced! Talk about a surprise and it was just what the Bahraini people needed.. A voice of wisdom.. It wasn't a planned visit, but a spontaneous one that acknowledged that this needs to stop and it needs to stop now! He didn't even plan what to say, he was speaking from heart as a Bahraini. All Bahrainis are touched. He called for calm, promised to withdraw the forces, and asked for constructive dialogue. No more bloodshed, enough is enough. All of a sudden humanity was restored and Bahrain never looked back since that moment.

He didn't stop there he spoke on CNN and on Al-Arabia, withdrew the forces, and has already begun meeting with people representing all sides and sects working towards a united Bahrain. Both Sunnis and Shiites have never felt so united! We are all working to be stronger than ever working together in unison to continue our progression and rise above this nightmare. Yes it's a nightmare because it didn't feel real, this is not the Bahrain we all know.

Have a look at this You Tube link http://www.youtube.com/user/bahraintelevision for all the speeches he mentioned and you judge yourself (The CNN one is the only one in English, the rest all have English subtitles.)

To watch the world go from calling my country "Business Friendly", "The Motorsports Hub of the Gulf", "Middle East lite", "The freest economy of the Middle East" "pro-democracy" "multi-cultural" "the most liberal in the Gulf" to "an oppressive regime", "a dictatorship", "a warzone" in ONE single day is simply unacceptable! It's as if to the whole world Bahrain just came into existence in these few days! How come a fast developing country go from one state to the extreme from one single event? The story must be biased, something must be missing!

I've written this out of duty to my country because we have been misrepresented. You all got to say what you thought about this in one of the most commented articles, and I just felt as a Bahraini F1F I want to make my voice heard, and it would've been insane to reply to every single comment, they were too overwhelming to read at such a difficult time. But today I have blind faith that Bahrain will emerge from this stronger than ever, united as ever. They say the darkest hour is just before the dawn, and we're at dawn. So please respect our efforts, and hopefully the coming days will only prove to the world what Bahrain really is and what it has always been.

To whoever took the time to read this I thank you from the bottom of my heart. If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask.. Or send me a tweet @pearlaceous, my account is locked just send me a request

Sincerely,

LAK