[Archived] Mubarak gone

[Aberdeen Blue]

Just spoke to our guys in Tripoli via satellite phone and apparently small scale protest in Green Square, Tripoli tonight met with live ammo response. Looks like this is going to be rather nasty as the Coronel will not go quietly.

Personally still not sure on this one as Ghadaffi seems to have a lot of support in the west of the country but could be a case of "you've had a revolution we want one"....

[rebelmswar]

Terrible what's going on.

Here's hoping for a quick, painless, end to all this

[philipl]

Oh dear Lak, we have peceful(ish) protests in the United Kingdom but we don't shoot live rounds at unarmed protesters. Thanks for posting that AlanK- Lak's view is a long way removed from the people in Bahrain I do business with (and I am not doing business with Syed before anyone leaps to conclusions).

Following Gadaffi's son's ramble on Libyn TV last night, this tweet by David Aaronovich summed it up:

That was a party political broadcast by the Totally Bonkers But Armed To The Teeth party.

Reports suggest that Libyan TV and several security buildings got burned down in Tripoli last night. If that is true, Gadaffi is wobbling.

The Tunisians could do their Arab neighbours a big favour by not pressing for the extradition of Ben Ali- these dictators need to feel there is a safe exit.

[thenodrog]

Worrying that it's starting to kick off in the middle east, and we are making troops redundant, binning nimrod, binning Harrier jump jets etc etc.

Very true. No one knows how this apparently co-ordinated chain of events will eventually pan out. Who cares really what the assorted nations of sand jockeys get up to in their own countries but one thing is for certain and thats that the various superpowers cannot and will not allow their oil supplies be compromised under any circumstances.

[rebelmswar]

Malta has two nice new jets and a couple of officers I hear philip. Congratulations.

Its funny who the French sell to.

[philipl]

Desperately hoping Libya does not descend into civil war and the Bahrainis find away of getting the Saudis to butt out.

This has just been posted:

wikileaks

If you thought Wikileaks was important wait untill the Egyptians start uploading what they found tonight.

The Egyptians raided the Ministry of Interior building last night. It doesn't take a big leap of imagination to see Blair and Bush heading for the International Court of Justice now.

Wikileaks tweating it suggests the material is already tamper proof and spread across the Wikileaks global networks of servers.

[dave birch]

You are hoping that Lybia doesn't descend into civil war?

What's happening now? It's not all lovvie at the moment, is it?

I can't imagine Blair or Bush heading to the ICJ.

Why?

Because It would lead to so much more. From years earlier and from beyond the grave.

Whilst it may be regrettable that things have happened, there has been a point to what they (Blair and Bush) were trying to achieve. That is being proven in the "popular uprisings" going on.

[cletus]

Why has the UK spent £4m on chartering 3 passenger jets to move Egyptian workers from Tunisia to Egypt? It`s not our problem.

The Egyptians should be moving their own people. They`ve got their own planes & ships.

The UK should butt out of Libya. Sending diplomats & special forces to 'talk' to the rebels is getting a bit too involved.

[BiggusLaddus]

Self-interest. We had good relations with Mubarak and we want to have good relations with the 'new' Eqypt, so we're doing them a favour at a time when they are, quite justifiably, a bit disorganised.

Similar with Libya, plus we we have our oil commitments out there.

[thenodrog]

Indeed biggusladdus. History repeating itself. In the old days we'd turn up with a few rolls of silk and a box full of beads and trinkets before we resorted to cold steel and sticking it up em if the prezzis didn't work. Now we (and the septics) send em a plane or two to help their kinfolk out before ultimately resorting to different airborne tactics in the form of Tornado's, Stealth bombers and B52's carpet bombing the living daylights out of em.

We all do like warm houses with 3 cars in the drive.

[Aberdeen Blue]

We all do like warm houses with 3 cars in the drive.

Too right, and it also keeps some of us happily employed and travelling the world :-)

I'm in Lagos for 3 days this week and what do I see as we drive to the office this morning... a guy walking down the road in the famous blue and white halves (old Bet 24 shirt). MAde a pleasant change from the Liverpool, ManUre and Arse shirts that seem to proliferate down here.

[SouthAussieRover]

Too right, and it also keeps some of us happily employed and travelling the world :-)

I'm in Lagos for 3 days this week and what do I see as we drive to the office this morning... a guy walking down the road in the famous blue and white halves (old Bet 24 shirt). MAde a pleasant change from the Liverpool, ManUre and Arse shirts that seem to proliferate down here.

In your opinion, is Lagos at risk of civil unrest?

[joey_big_nose]

Indeed biggusladdus. History repeating itself. In the old days we'd turn up with a few rolls of silk and a box full of beads and trinkets before we resorted to cold steel and sticking it up em if the prezzis didn't work. Now we (and the septics) send em a plane or two to help their kinfolk out before ultimately resorting to different airborne tactics in the form of Tornado's, Stealth bombers and B52's carpet bombing the living daylights out of em.

We all do like warm houses with 3 cars in the drive.

To be fair it is a show of how modern diplomacy has improved over the years. If this shizzle was kicking off in, say, 1952 then the West would be rolling in with tanks and all sorts. DIsaster would ensue.

These days the international channels - the UN, EU, AU etc. - are a lot better sorted and the quality of the diplomacy on all sides much better, plus in a globalised economy everyone's interests are much more in line. Since the end of the Cold War there has been a huge amount of international co-ordination. It's great stuff, as everyone who does not fancy being in a nuclear war must agree.

Employing Tornado's, Stealth Bombers and B52s do few favours for anyone. The cost is enormous, the publicity horrific, long term hopes for stability tiny, the price of oil rockets, and - as Blair and Bush found out - these things can end promising political careers (well in Blair's case anyway...) in ignomy. Plus there is absolutely no plausible scenario where the West could justify securing oil reserves for themselves. Absolutely none. So any intervention would be to impliment some kind of democracy - which would have to be built on internal consensus - or to counter some kind of identified threat (dodgy ground of the "45 minute dossier")

[Aberdeen Blue]

In your opinion, is Lagos at risk of civil unrest?

Constantly

Seriously, the Presidential elections are planned for a couple for week time and this is the last week that I am allowed to travel here for at least a month as there are issues foreseen and we have a travel ban coming into force. This unfortunately is the "norm" in Nigeria. Lagos is "generally" OK with the real "hotspots" in the Muslim controlled North and the Delta / Rivers province cities such as Port Harcourt and Warri.

There seems to be heightened risk of trouble at this election as the ruling party has previously kept relative control over the North by alternating Presidential candidates between Muslims from the North and Christians from the South; however as the previous Muslim President died last year and was succeeded by his Christian deputy, the fantastically named Goodluck Johnson, some of the Muslims feel it’s their "turn" again. However, old Goodluck is the official candidate which could lead to trouble.

Hopefully by 23:45 tomorrow night I will be in my seat on the BA bird with a G&T in hand!

[Aberdeen Blue]

Plus there is absolutely no plausible scenario where the West could justify securing oil reserves for themselves. Absolutely none.

Maybe so Joey, but of course there is always the scenario of "protecting the infrastructure and reserves" for the future democratic government of "X/Y/Z"......

[thenodrog]

This unfortunately is the "norm" in Nigeria. Lagos is "generally" OK with the real "hotspots" in the Muslim controlled North and the Delta / Rivers province cities such as Port Harcourt and Warri.

Get away!...Really?..... You do suprise me Aberdeen Blue.

[Aberdeen Blue]

Get away!...Really?..... You do suprise me Aberdeen Blue.

Now now Drog, play nicely

Port Harcourt and Warri are in the Christian South and some of the biggest a'holes on the planet!

[joey_big_nose]

Maybe so Joey, but of course there is always the scenario of "protecting the infrastructure and reserves" for the future democratic government of "X/Y/Z"......

You work in oil so have better insight than me, but personally I feel that for the argument to stand up it would need to be implimented coherantly. That means through international organs (UN etc) working with internal factions with credible support from the population. Otherwise the situation gets very very sticky, starts costing a lot of money, a lot of diplomatic credibility, and also a lot of votes in the intervening nations.

With Iraq and Afganistan toiling on I can't see anyone in North America or the EU fancying taking on more military commitments and opening themselves up to further ethical scandal. Plus it is imperitive that the democratic nations are seen as the 'good guys' not only by their own populations but also the emerging movements in the Middle East and Subsaharan Africa.

The rise of massive Chinese funding of developing nations and the flexing of its diplomatic and increasingly military muscle, we are now playing a PR game with the nations of the world which supply our raw materials. We need these countries to look West not East. We can't force them to do that, only pursuade them through support, example and good conduct.

[Aberdeen Blue]

Fair points Joey but it is not in the "rebels" interests to have the infrastructure for the countries only real source of revenue be destroyed, it would take years to put back in place and in the meantime would result in very little cash flow other than from the offshore fields, most of which are in early stages of development / production. Libya without its oil and gas revenue is a busted flush.

That said, it's not really in Ghaddaffi's interest either but he does not seem at his most lucid right now!

There is a lot of pressure being put on the Arab League and the African Congress right now to stump up some sort of intervention force but the Arabs mostly have problems of there own to worry about and most Africa forces are a joke outwith the Saffer's.

PS. The Chinese are already swarming over Africa in the energy sector with the 2 big Chinese companies (CNPC and Sinopec) buying up existing fields, exploration acreage and even western companies (Addax, a Swiss company were one of the latest) off anyone who will sell. This has our American cousins very, very worried.

[joey_big_nose]

Fair points Joey but it is not in the "rebels" interests to have the infrastructure for the countries only real source of revenue be destroyed, it would take years to put back in place and in the meantime would result in very little cash flow other than from the offshore fields, most of which are in early stages of development / production. Libya without its oil and gas revenue is a busted flush.

Totally agree. So I think whatever happens will be worked out between the people and their leader, with the Deomcratic opition heavily pushed (though not forced) by the Western International community

PS. The Chinese are already swarming over Africa in the energy sector with the 2 big Chinese companies (CNPC and Sinopec) buying up existing fields, exploration acreage and even western companies (Addax, a Swiss company were one of the latest) off anyone who will sell. This has our American cousins very, very worried.

This is the defining issue of our times in my opinion. About ten years ago we passed the point of the West having decisive leverage with the Chinese in terms of their interests. Now we are entering an interesting period where the Chinese are approaching having decisive leverage with the West. In terms of supply, purchase, credit and ownership of underlying assets.

My personal prediction is that the US is going to suddenly be very very enamored with the UN, the EU, Australia (particularly important due to mining etc) and the rest. Safety in numbers will be the order of the day. Very ironic when you look at it in terms of all the unilateral posturing of 2003.

Already the CP of China's four year plan has more economic relevance than the US Presidents State of the Union address. TImes they are a -changing. And that's just the start of it. India has quite a few more gears to get through as well and that will transform things even more radically.

The West as a unit needs an effective strategy to make friends while protecting their position. Which to be fair has been going reasonably well, but the only logical solution is pushing the UN heavily. We are in an interesting world where dictating terms is not an option any more. Amazing what can happen in seven years.

[RibbleValleyRover]

Looks like we could see some interesting developments now that the UN resolution has passed for possible military action (stops short of an invasion):

Libya: UN backs action against Colonel Gaddafi

The UN Security Council has backed a no-fly zone over Libya and "all necessary measures" short of an invasion "to protect civilians and civilian-populated areas".

The UK, France and Lebanon proposed the council resolution, with US support.

[adopted scouser]

Mad Arabs, why don't we just mind our own business ? Soldiers being made redundant after a tour - disgusting. Ark Royal mothballed - disgusting. Nimrod dismantled - disgusting. Churchill, lions led by donkeys, our lions have had their teeth pulled out. We can't go in with anything so we should just stay away. Sod 'em

[Hughesy]

Looks like we could see some interesting developments now that the UN resolution has passed for possible military action (stops short of an invasion):

Libya: UN backs action against Colonel Gaddafi

10 For - France, UK, Lebanon, US, South Africa, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Colombia, Portugal, Nigeria, Gabon

0 Against

5 Abstentions - China, Russia, Brazil, India, Germany

[joey_big_nose]

10 For - France, UK, Lebanon, US, South Africa, Bosnia-Hercegovina, Colombia, Portugal, Nigeria, Gabon

0 Against

5 Abstentions - China, Russia, Brazil, India, Germany

Well at least the French are on board and Lebanon is an important representative of the ME, but it is not that heartening that the Chinese, Russians, Germans and Indians are out.

I hope we know what we are getting ourselves in for, and the support on the ground for regime change is as strong as predicted.

[SouthAussieRover]

When night next falls in Libya hopefully Gadaffi has pulled back from attacking Benghazi.

Otherwise I think the proverbial may well hit the fan.Let's face it...there are a few scores to settle with the fella.