[Archived] Blackburn Youth

[Stuart]

I'm tired of being so negative and depressed about our plight so, naturally, I'll start off this thread by assuming the worst.

But bear with me.

Scenario

- January sees us lose our most experienced players, Samba, Hoilett, Salgado, possibly Nelsen, Roberts, say.

- We bring in no-one, certainly not of PL quality, except for perhaps a couple of loans. Let's say Venkys see the Liverpool and United results, and Kean's rhetoric, as proof that we are already good enough to compete.

- Our squad is weakened even further than it is already is.

- We are relegated.

However, on the way down we play an extremely young group of players and give them vital experience in the Premier League, with sustained runs in the first team.

In doing so, we greatly reduce the wage bill to a more realistic level, stabilising the club to be able to fund itself - via gates, modest TV income, and parachute payments.

Could we engineer enough experience into our young players to enable them to compete in the Championship next season? Or is the second tier a totally different ball game, meaning such experience is pointless.

Our youngsters, and their age at the start of 2012/13 season:

GK

Mark Bunn (27)

Jake Kean (21)

DF

Adam Henley (18)

Grant Hanley (20)

Martin Olsson (24)*

Scott Dann (25)*

MF

Robbie Cotton (18)

Jason Lowe (20)

Amine Linganzi (21)

Zac Aley (21)

Steven N'Zonzi* (22)

Radosav Petrovic* (23)

FW

Jordan Slew (20)

Josh Morris (20)

Nick Blackman (21)

Ruben Rochina* (21)

David Goodwille (22)

The danger is of course that many may leave (asterisked) and some could shine between now and the end of the season and we lose them too.

What do people think? Is there some hope on the playing side?

[Devon Rover]

I know this makes me pretty sad but I've run this scenario through my head several times in recent weeks whilst having a shower, eating lunch, lying in bed awake at 3am (!) etc. I try and imagine what relegation would mean for the playing squad and obviously it would cause a massive outgoing of players but I do think that the younger players who would stay, if complemented with a few experienced, relatively low wage, journeymen, would give us a decent enough squad for the Championship.

Unless anything meant that we had a points deduction, then I would back the squad Jisty lists to be capable of achieving mid-table in the Championship but unlikely to get promotion and therefore the more talented younger players would begin to move on. I think it would then be a slow period of mediocrity and decline outside of the Premier League.

Anyway, its not going to happen if we can use today's result as a springboard and Venkys don't flog everyone off in January. Here's anxiously hoping....

[Stuart]

I know this makes me pretty sad but I've run this scenario through my head several times in recent weeks whilst having a shower, eating lunch, lying in bed awake at 3am (!) etc. I try and imagine what relegation would mean for the playing squad and obviously it would cause a massive outgoing of players but I do think that the younger players who would stay, if complemented with a few experienced, relatively low wage, journeymen, would give us a decent enough squad for the Championship.

Unless anything meant that we had a points deduction, then I would back the squad Jisty lists to be capable of achieving mid-table in the Championship but unlikely to get promotion and therefore the more talented younger players would begin to move on. I think it would then be a slow period of mediocrity and decline outside of the Premier League.

Anyway, its not going to happen if we can use today's result as a springboard and Venkys don't flog everyone off in January. Here's anxiously hoping....

I do think we would desperately need to bolster our defence and not from the reserves/academy. As you say, DR, we need that blend.

Given our likely budget, I think we will probably be relying on the young lads above to provide the quality. Although I don't see a 2000/2001 Dunn/Duff (yet).

I can see us morphing into a Blackpool type set-up.

[Mattyblue]

Thought this was going to be a thread documenting your days as a bit of a 'handy lad' Jisty

[Amo]

Since when was Morris a striker?

[Gav]

Thought this was going to be a thread documenting your days as a bit of a 'handy lad' Jisty

Yes Matty

I also thought it was dedicated to those 45yrs+ individuals who are now all 3 stone heavier and wearing 'primarni' rather than 'armani'

[Stuart]

Thought this was going to be a thread documenting your days as a bit of a 'handy lad' Jisty

I had a feeling someone might say something like that. It's also the reason why there is an "N" at the beginning of the subtitle - it was supposed to say "Not..." but for some reason a combination of key presses made the thread live!

Since when was Morris a striker?

Dodgy research toppers - I was looking for somewhere which showed player ages.

http://uk.eurosport.yahoo.com/football/blackburn-rovers/squad.html

What do you both think to our youth being our salvation next season?

Yes Matty

I also thought it was dedicated to those 45yrs+ individuals who are now all 3 stone heavier and wearing 'primarni' rather than 'armani'

You need to 'fess up, GAV, and explain why you've got a photo of Ken Barlow as your avatar!

[Gav]

You need to 'fess up, GAV, and explain why you've got a photo of Ken Barlow as your avatar!

HOW DARE YOU JISTY - THATS SIR JOHN BOND, THE MAN WHO ALMOST RUINED burnley

[Stuart]

HOW DARE YOU JISTY - THATS SIR JOHN BOND, THE MAN WHO ALMOST RUINED burnley

It's Ken Barlow, you can tell by the dodgy blonde wig. You sure you typed his name right in Google Images?

[Gav]

It's Ken Barlow, you can tell by the dodgy blonde wig. You sure you typed his name right in Google Images?

[Amo]

What do you both think to our youth being our salvation next season?

The biggest challenge will be hanging onto the likes of Olsson, Nzonzi, Rochina etc. Those are the players who are crucial to competing in the Championship next season. Unfortunately, it will be far too tempting for Venky's to cash in on these players and trust their golden boy to rebuild the side. Dann could be a massive player next year, and in some ways, the way he's flopped could turn out to be a mixed blessing. I doubt many PL clubs will be queueing up to take him.

As for the rest, we have a few promising youngsters and a lot of unknown quantities. I'd argue that a lot of them would look average in The Championship, especially if the 'special one' is still in charge. There have been plenty of lower league sides with a few young stars, but unless you have a shrewd manager and investment on the pitch, those assets will simply be sold off and the club will spiral down the division.

Buckle your seatbelts!

[Steve Moss]

What are the younger players' salaries? 5,000 or 10,000 a week? 20,000 tops? Assuming a full squad of 25 and 52 weeks in a year, then we have to pay 1,300 weeks of wages. Assuming:

5,000/week average, then the wage bill would be 6,500,000/year.

10,000/week average, then the wage bill would be 13,000,000/year.

20,000/week average, then the wage bill would be 26,000,000/year.

If the Rovers annual budget from all sources is around 50,000,000/year, then those salaries (even at an average wage of 20,000,000/week) would make us a very profitable club, even if one allocated 5,000,000/year or so toward the youth academy, 5,000,000 or so a year toward administration (10% of the budget as the Roas like to do things on the cheap) and another 10,000,000/year or so toward transfer and agent fees. There would still be about 4-5 million/year in profit. They could pay themselves back their purchase price in 5 years.

I wonder if that is the basic framework the Roas were sold on the Rovers initially?

The problems are:

We won't be able to hold onto our youth.

Youth is inexperienced and unreliable. It won't keep us up in the long term. I think the old adage about old age and treachery overcoming youth and energy holds true, even in football. The 26+ year old pros would turn our young ones over, more often than not. And look at what Holloway tried to do with a wage cap of 15,000/week. He did well but the quality was not sufficient. And he's a much better manager than Kean.

Though of course a wage cap is not the same thing as a wage average. I think Holloway would have kept Blackpool up with an average wage of 15,000/week.

Anyway, just an idea as to what might be going through the Raos heads.

[Stuart]

Also Steve, didn't JW once come out and say that wages were directly comparable to league position?

By extension, having one the three lowest wage bills is likely to equate to a bottom 3 finish.

[Miker]

Jisty, I thought you disagreed with me about the emphasis on youth

At the end of the day, if we as a club are able to train young talet and give them opportunities in the first team and be repaid with the sort of performances we saw at Old Trafford then we will be able to do really well as a club.

Doing this means a reduced wage bill and profit on investment, if and when we do sell the players. It also means we don't have to spend stupid money on transfer fees, agent fees or signing fees.

We still need experience in the team though. Players like Yakubu and Samba make the difference. Relying on a team of youngsters throughout a whole season is not a good idea. However, giving them the opportunities and building their confidence is important.

It will be interesting to see what happens next.

[Stuart]

Jisty, I thought you disagreed with me about the emphasis on youth

I do as a means of keeping us up and we still need a mix. My question is whether giving them the experience now might benefit us next year in the Championship. It's not what I'd prefer right now.

At the end of the day, if we as a club are able to train young talet and give them opportunities in the first team and be repaid with the sort of performances we saw at Old Trafford then we will be able to do really well as a club.

Doing this means a reduced wage bill and profit on investment, if and when we do sell the players. It also means we don't have to spend stupid money on transfer fees, agent fees or signing fees.

We still need experience in the team though. Players like Yakubu and Samba make the difference. Relying on a team of youngsters throughout a whole season is not a good idea. However, giving them the opportunities and building their confidence is important.

It will be interesting to see what happens next.

Agreed. So you don't stand by your 'emphasis on youth' comment then?

Emphasis should be on a balance.

[MarkBRFC]

Why does it matter? I thought the club was folding next season when we go down?

[BRFCfor83]

I haven't a problem not buying marque signings and I don't mind bargin basement shopping for players as we've had some good un's in recent years. What I don't like is having to do all this because venkys and the rat Anderson are lining their pockets and destroying my club!!

[Miker]

Agreed. So you don't stand by your 'emphasis on youth' comment then?

Emphasis should be on a balance.

Haha you definitely need a balance, but I am all for a strategy whereby we produce our own players and give them the sort of runs in the first team we've been giving players like Olsson, Jones, Hanley, Lowe, and Henley. I think having some experienced, Premier League players in the squad is a given. A lot of teams though concentrate on bringing in journeymen and squad players to bulk up the squad, rather than on the players in their academy. So I'm happy we take the latter approach and hope we continue to do so.

[bluebruce]

I feel we should be more proactive with loaning youngsters out to lower leagues. That could help a youth based policy prosper. I'd elaborate, but I'm on my phone, so hopefully people can just see why!

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

Has Teflon been 'ordered' to play as many of the youngsters as possible so as to 'put them in the shop window'

[Jock]

Has Teflon been 'ordered' to play as many of the youngsters as possible so as to 'put them in the shop window'

Probably. Its all about putting value on the squad, not league position.

[RoverMad86]

I read after the United game that the starting XI or the match day team was the youngest we have played in the Premier League. Some of the younger lads do look handy enough for Championship football. However, maybe, they will play with freedom and keep us up this year. They don't have the baggage that some of the senior players have, like Dunn and Pedersen.

Youth is the way forward, but the balance has to be right.

[Stuart]

I read after the United game that the starting XI or the match day team was the youngest we have played in the Premier League. Some of the younger lads do look handy enough for Championship football. However, maybe, they will play with freedom and keep us up this year. They don't have the baggage that some of the senior players have, like Dunn and Pedersen.

Youth is the way forward, but the balance has to be right.

+1

[gumboots]

I feel we should be more proactive with loaning youngsters out to lower leagues. That could help a youth based policy prosper. I'd elaborate, but I'm on my phone, so hopefully people can just see why!

We can't afford to loan them out - they are playing in our first team

[rog of the rovers]

4-0 win tonight for the Youth team!

Anybody go? Details?