[Archived] 2011/12: The Final Countdown

[Guest Wen Y Hu]

Published: Tuesday, 13 March 2012

The Final Countdown

by Kamy

As we head into the final straight of the season, it is time to look at the runners and riders in the race to avoid relegation.

Given the circumstances surrounding Rovers as we face the final ten games of the season, some would say that these games are the most important that the club has ever been involved in, considering the potential consequences for Rovers in financial terms should the club be relegated and the owners continue not to finance the club in a satisfactory manner.

Before looking at each team, let's look at how many points might be needed for safety. Pundits and managers always talk about the magical 40-point mark, but in reality since 1995/1996 40 points have only been needed on four occasions. This year, with ten games to go and QPR, who are in 18th position, currently sitting on 22 points, it would take Champions League form for any of the bottom three teams to get to 40 points. It is more than likely that 35 to 37 points will be enough to secure Premier League safety this year. That would mean Rovers having to pick up somewhere between 10 and 12 points from the final ten fixtures.

Rovers are effectively in a five-team league with Wigan, Wolves, QPR and Bolton, where the aim is to finish in the top two of that league. So let's look at each of the five teams in greater depth.

Rovers

Remaining Fixtures: Sunderland (Home), Bolton (Away), Manchester United (Home), West Brom (Away), Liverpool (Home), Swansea (Away), Norwich (Home), Spurs (Away), Wigan (Home), Chelsea (Away)

On paper, Rovers along with QPR and Wigan have the toughest run-in, so it is going to be vital that Rovers pick up points from the home games against Sunderland, Norwich and Wigan, whilst avoiding defeat against Bolton. Anything that can be picked up from the Liverpool, Man United, Chelsea and Tottenham games have to be viewed as a bonus. If Rovers can produce good performances at Swansea and West Brom, it would be possible to pick up points from these games. The form and fitness of Junior and Yakubu are going to be crucial for Rovers and we must avoid injury and suspensions with our defenders.

Wigan Athletic

Remaining Fixtures: West Brom (Home), Liverpool (Away), Stoke (Home), Chelsea (Away), Manchester United (Home), Arsenal (Away), Fulham (Away), Newcastle (Home), Rovers (Away), Wolves (Home)

Like Rovers, Wigan have a tough run-in to the end of the season. Their next game against West Brom is almost "do or die" for them, and they will also be targeting the home games against Newcastle, Stoke and Wolves. The big problem for Wigan is that they face Chelsea, Man United and Arsenal in consecutive games, which may lead to relegation rivals pulling away if Wigan don't get positive results in these matches. Wigan have also struggled to score goals on a regular basis, which is a problem that they need to address.

Wolverhampton Wanderers

Remaining Fixtures: Manchester United (Home), Norwich (Away), Bolton (Home), Stoke (Away), Arsenal (Home), Sunderland (Away), Manchester City (Home), Swansea (Away), Everton (Home) and Wigan (Away)

Wolves are the current "crisis" club in the Premier League, They sacked Mick McCarthy and, despite being linked with various replacements, have ended up appointing McCarthy's assistant manager, Terry Connor, until the end of the season, and there is also fan unrest. To have any hope of staying up, Wolves are going to have to start picking up points away from home as their last five home games include Man United, Arsenal and Man City. They will be targeting the Bolton and Everton home games for maximum points. They could face a winner-takes-all game on the last day of the season away at Wigan. On paper, Wolves seem to have a decent squad, and the positive for them is that in Kevin Doyle and Steven Fletcher they have players who can score at this level. It also remains to be seen if Wolves stick with Connor or bring in a replacement manager.

QPR

Remaining Fixtures: Liverpool (Home), Sunderland (Away), Arsenal (Home), Manchester United (Away), Swansea (Home), West Brom (Away), Spurs (Home), Chelsea (Away), Stoke (Home) and Manchester City (Away)

It was widely thought that the appointment of Mark Hughes as manager would lead to an upturn in QPR's fortunes, but thus far this has not happened and recently they have lost games against fellow relegation candidates Rovers and Bolton. Like Rovers and Wigan, QPR have a tough run-in, with games against all of the current top 6, and they will have to pick up points from some of these games and then target the home games against Swansea and Stoke. The positive for QPR fans is that in Zamora and Cisse they have players who are capable of scoring goals at this level, while Barton, Shaun Wright-Phillips and Taarabat can all be match-winners. In Mark Hughes they have a proven manager who has experience of a relegation battle with Rovers.

Bolton Wanderers

Remaining Fixtures: Aston Villa (Away), Rovers (Home), Wolves (Away), Fulham (Home), Newcastle (Away), Spurs (Away), Swansea (Home), Sunderland (Away), West Brom (Home) and Stoke (Away)

Bolton on paper have the easiest run-in of all the bottom five. They will be targeting the home games against Rovers, Fulham, Swansea and Stoke and the away games at Villa and Wolves. With the games that they have left, they should be able to get up to 37 points. Goal-scoring has been a problem for Bolton this season and they will need the likes of Mark Davies, Ngog and Kalasnic to continue to chip in with vital match-winning goals. Their loan signing of Ryo Miyaichi from Arsenal could prove to be a season-saving piece of business by Owen Coyle.

So there you have it — all of the runners and riders in the big scrap for survival. What is guaranteed are plenty of thrills, spills and heart-stopping moments from now until the end of the season. When Rovers lost to Bolton on 21st December, it looked like relegation was a foregone conclusion, but now a few months later Rovers are in with a chance of staying up. Most of us would have grabbed our current position had we been offered it after the Bolton game, but although it is going to be tough to stay up, we're still in there fighting!

[hesfromburn]

Good read Kamy.

Agree Injuries/suspensions and how we cope if we get them with our squad down to the bones could really define where we finish.

Not having our stongest squads for the big games you have highlighted could really cost us and we are not safe yet.

First up Sunderland and by the looks of it we are going to have a good squad to pick from and the squad really seemed to enjoy lifting the burden of not having a clean sheet and will hopefully give them all a lift, so hopefully it will be a good day for us and 3 points closer to guarenteed safety. COYB!

[m1st]

Thanks, Kamy, for an excellent analysis of what we've got to do to finish at least 17th. Last Saturday evening was the first time in ages I've looked up the table, rather than focussing on the bottom five.

Fwiw, I think next Tuesday could be pretty crucial, given the games that are being played over the weekend. Sunday sees the bottom two [specially Wolves] in lose-able home games, while if we can at least nick a point off Sunderland [although I've hoped for more in colin's excellent preview thread] and Bolton beat the under-performing Villa, then that could possibly make it a 6-team mini-league.

[Mark Atkins' Bald Patch]

Thanks, Kamy, for an excellent analysis of what we've got to do to finish at least 17th. Last Saturday evening was the first time in ages I've looked up the table, rather than focussing on the bottom five.

Fwiw, I think next Tuesday could be pretty crucial, given the games that are being played over the weekend. Sunday sees the bottom two [specially Wolves] in lose-able home games, while if we can at least nick a point off Sunderland [although I've hoped for more in colin's excellent preview thread] and Bolton beat the under-performing Villa, then that could possibly make it a 6-team mini-league.

Cheers Kamy.

I'd rather Villa thump Bolton to be honest, I'd rather win a 5 team league than fall short in a 6 team affair.

I see Cattermole and Sessègnon are suspended for Sunderland's visit on tuesday, plus they'll have had a big game on the saturday against Everton. Big chance for 3 more points dare I say it.

COYB

[LeChuck]

while if we can at least nick a point off Sunderland [although I've hoped for more in colin's excellent preview thread] and Bolton beat the under-performing Villa, then that could possibly make it a 6-team mini-league.

People do seem intent on running with this idea what other teams can be pulled downwards - two weeks ago it was Villa, last week Swansea, now back to Villa again.

There is an 8 point gulf at the moment and I don't expect that to close by much - the bottom five are comfortably worse than the rest of the division.

Every part of me will be hoping for a Villa win against Bolton. If we can beat Sunderland then we could really take a lot of the pressure off ourselves, because the rest will be lucky to pick up any points.

[eire3382]

Nice summary Kamy.

Most seasons we would be cut off the bottom but this season we ahve found ourselves one of several very poor sides.

We have a reasonable chance of staying up but we really do need to put some points on the board in the next 2 fixtures.

But it will go to the last day I fear.

[braddock]

I'm bored of all this 'in a normal season we'd be down' talk which was creeping in to the end of the relegation thread. It doesn't really make all that much sense. This is a football league. If you don't want to be relegated you have to finish 17th and above (our aims were higher, but they were misguided to an extreme when it came to the owners and manager). We all know (the fans at least) that the first aim for this football club, as has been the case since we were last promoted to the top division is to survive. After a very shaky start this season, with a few shakes still around we are in as decent a position as any fighting the drop to survive. Putting annoyance at overambition, leadership of the club and personal vendetta's aside, if we were to survive then it's because we deserved to. It's the well used maxim that you get what you deserve in football, and also that the table never lies. Well if we stop up two years in a row when many in the first season had us as certs to go down this time last year and plenty more had us rock bottom after the first few games of this season and have only recently changed their tune, then it shows that there is some underestimation on the part of those spouting impending doom (or at least those spouting immediate doom).

When I see 'in a normal season we'd be down' it all looks like doublespeak used to try and find any way not to give at least partial credit where it's due. Take note of the word partial. People can't say we are definitely down, we don't stand a chance, then if we do stay up refuse acknowledgement of any achievement whatsoever (this club surviving any season is an achievement, albeit not the highest achievement we could be capable of), then switch the goalposts to managers misguided overambition in previous interviews which were ridiculed and not taken seriously at the time anyway. After all, in your own words these people know nothing, so start judging them on your standards whilst continuing to hope for their removal if you wish, not their standards which you yourselves ridicule.

[Mattyblue]

I agree bradders, no really!

The aim of BRFC post Jack has always been survival first. We stay up after 38 games, it's not down to luck or whatever else.

Now for me there is little between the sides outside the top 6, there has been a definite drop in quality, that's why l believe the whole Kean era has been a missed opportunity for the club to kick on. Instead we've spent 15 months in and around the bottom 3 so some random coach can learn his trade.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

Cheers Kamy.

I'd rather Villa thump Bolton to be honest, I'd rather win a 5 team league than fall short in a 6 team affair.

I see Cattermole and Sessègnon are suspended for Sunderland's visit on tuesday, plus they'll have had a big game on the saturday against Everton. Big chance for 3 more points dare I say it.

COYB

We'll never have a better chance of beating Sunderland at home given the circumstances. Let's hope we can rise to the occasion.

[philipl]

I did that predictor thingy and gave myself heart failure on several occasions ending with Rovers going down on goal difference because Chelsea needed three points AND a better GD to make it into 4th place whilst QPR won on the last day at a dispirited Man City who had in the end lost the title by a considerable margin to their red neighbours.

Irrespective of how bad they are, it is not difficult to project Wigan and Wolves to come in the last two places and both make it to the 30 points mark.

[1864roverite]

Interesting take Kamy and a nice read.

Have to say that Rovers have it in their hands and I personally think that 36 points will do the trick for survival this season.

Rovers have to win at home versus Norwich, Sunderland and Wigan. They must not lose at Bolton (hopefully a win will be achieved) whilst anything at WBA would be very welcomed. I agree the bonus points will be a rarity when we play mank u, liverpoo, spuds,swansea and chelsea.

Its going to be squeaky bum time all the way through April.

[Threepenny Bit Foot]

Given the lack of quality at the bottom I think 35 points will be enough to stay up

[colin]

That's a cracking doomesday countdown. Depressing reading, but thanks.

[Gally]

35 should be plenty. Rovers could potentially be looking at 2 wins being realistically enough to stay up. Wolves have only won 1 from 14, and if last weekend is anything to go by they don't look like improving that record any time soon. QPR have picked up 1 point from us, Bolton, Wolves, Fulham and Everton, and have a nightmare of a run in.

Short of a miraculous turnaround for either of those teams, it looks like one from us, Bolton and Wigan joining them. If we beat Wigan and pick up another three points from somewhere else, I can't see Wigan coming up with the other 10 points (11 if you factor in the likely GD) from 9 games to overtake us.

Very risky to think in those terms mind.

[Amo]

Piece of cake.

We're in safe hands.

[blueboy3333]

Good piece that Kamy, although i'd say that Wolves fixtures look equally as bad as any other. Their 'winnable' games are all away against teams that are good at home; Stoke Swansea, Sunderland & Norwich. Their home games against ManU, Arsenal and ManC won't get many points (hopefully), which leaves relegation battles agaainst Bolton and Wigan.

Looking at the fixtures I can't honestly see any team below us picking up more than 12 more points so 35 should be enough. Like you say Kamy, if we can beat Norwich and Wigan at home, and get a point against Sunderland and Bolton even 33pts might be enough if our goal difference doesn't take too much of a hammering. He says without much confidence!

[arbitro]

And once we are safe we will all have to pay homage to our saviour Kean who will be lording it up, giving interviews aplenty and spouting the same inane drivel. The media will tell us how we were wrong to protest against him and how he should be manager of the year. He will probably get a bumper new contract and we will see interviews galore with our owners. They might even erect a statue of him and themselves outside the JW Stand. Once again the summer will consist of rumour and speculation about new players, transfer budgets and snippets from the ITK crew. And the 1% of Keanites will come on here saying 'I told you so'.

Welcome to our world - Groundhog Day.

[yoda's brother]

And once we are safe we will all have to pay homage to our saviour Kean who will be lording it up, giving interviews aplenty and spouting the same inane drivel. The media will tell us how we were wrong to protest against him and how he should be manager of the year. He will probably get a bumper new contract and we will see interviews galore with our owners. They might even erect a statue of him and themselves outside the JW Stand. Once again the summer will consist of rumour and speculation about new players, transfer budgets and snippets from the ITK crew. And the 1% of Keanites will come on here saying 'I told you so'.

Welcome to our world - Groundhog Day.

+1

[Mattyblue]

After Wolves last season we were told to 'expect big things' as he did his victory lap around various studios. Europe and the rest of it.

So, a year on will he now change his tune and crow about our epic tale of survival?

He's a crafty bugger, I'll give him that.

[RitzyDelandro]

I think we will be safe - thankfully Wolves, Wigan and QPR all look in a worse state than us. Here's how i see the run in:

Blackburn – Current Pts - 25 – Final Points = 34 – 16th position

20 Mar Sunderland (H) – Draw – 1pt

24 Mar Bolton (A) – Loss – 0pt

)02 Apr Man Utd (H) – Loss – 0pt

07 Apr West Brom (A) – Draw – 1pt

10 Apr Liverpool (H) – Loss – 0pt

14 Apr Swansea (A) – Draw – 1pt

21 Apr Norwich (H) – Win – 3pt

29 Apr Tottenham (A) – Loss – 0pt

06 May Wigan (H) – Win – 3pt

13 May Chelsea (A) – Loss – 0pt

Bolton – Current Points – 23 – Final Points = 34 – 17th position

20 Mar Aston Villa (A) – Draw – 1pt

24 Mar Blackburn (H) – Win – 3pt

31 Mar Wolves (A) – Loss – 0pt

07 Apr Fulham (H) – Draw – 1pt

09 Apr Newcastle (A)- Loss – 0pt

No Date Tottenham – Loss – 0pt

21 Apr Swansea (H) – Win – 3pt

28 Apr Sunderland (A) – Loss – 0pt

06 May West Brom (H) – Win – 3pt

13 May Stoke City (A) – Loss – 0pt

QPR – Current Points – 22 – Final points = 30 – 19th position

21 Mar Liverpool (H) - Draw – 1pt

24 Mar Sunderland (A) – Loss – 0pt

31 Mar Arsenal (H) – Loss – 0pt

08 Apr Man Utd (A) – Loss – 0pt

11 Apr Swansea (H) – Win – 3pt

14 Apr West Brom (A) – Loss – 0pt

21 Apr Tottenham (A) – Draw – 1pt

29 Apr Chelsea (A) – Loss – 0pt

06 May Stoke City (H) – Win – 3pt

13 May Man City (A) – Loss – 0pt

Wigan – Current Points – 21 – Final Points = 27 – 20th position

17 Mar West Brom (H) – Draw – 1pt

24 Mar Liverpool (A) – Loss – 0pt

31 Mar Stoke City (H) – Win – 3pt

07 Apr Chelsea (A) – Loss – 0pt

11 Apr Man Utd (H) – Loss – 0pt

16 Apr Arsenal (A) – Loss – 0pt

21 Apr Fulham (A) – Loss – 0pt

28 Apr Newcastle (H) – Draw – 1pt

06 May Blackburn (A) – Loss – 0pt

13 May Wolves (H) – Draw – 1pt

Wolves - Current Points – 22 – Final points = 31 – 18th position

18 Mar Man Utd (H) – Loss – 0pt

24 Mar Norwich (A) – Draw – 1pt

31 Mar Bolton (H) – Win – 3pt

07 Apr Stoke City (A) – Loss – 0pt

11 Apr Arsenal (H) – Loss – 0pt

14 Apr Sunderland (A) – Loss – 0pt

22 Apr Man City (H) – Loss – 0pt

28 Apr Swansea (A) – Draw – 1pt

06 May Everton (H) – Win – 3pts

13 May Wigan (A) – Draw – 1pt

[Stuart]

One of Kean's worst traits is that when any interviewer asks him to explain a previous statement, he just fronts it by saying "no I never said that".

Presumably at which point Agnew or some other "spokesperson" steps in to remind the attendees what questions they can and can't ask. Why they don't just ignore that and ask anyway. What's the worst they could print "Kean storms out of presser when asked about XYZ".

I just think the press don't really care about Rovers or Blackburn enough to be bothered and just go through the motions and get the hell out of here. The only person who does care, Mr Cryer, presumably knows which side his bread is buttered when it comes to dealing with the club.

Looking forward to clicking mute when he comes on TV following our survival.

[Mattyblue]

These pressers seem largely for the benefit of SSnews that show them throughout the Friday before the weekend games.

Just have a watch, outside the 'big clubs' not one searching question is ever asked.

It largely goes like,

'you are up against Martin O'Neill next, how do yout think he's done at Sunderland?'

'Oh excellent, he's done a real good job there'.

'Any injury concerns?'

'We are hoping to have a few patched up and out there as it's a big game'.

They've got their 30 second soundbite and that'll do.

[Jimmy612]

I'm bored of all this 'in a normal season we'd be down' talk which was creeping in to the end of the relegation thread.

First of all, your profile picture quite frankly is embarassing and dare I say it immature. You put it up there because you were stubbornly loyal to these morons despite them making a mockery of the club and themselves at every possible opportunity. After 16 months of them tearing the soul out of the club, you keep that picture up? why exactly? Do you still believe that Mrs D has the best interests of the club at heart or is it just a little dig at all the posters who after arguing with you for months on end, have been proven correct.

Secondly, I take issue with you saying 'we have stayed up for 2 seasons'.. Where were we in the league when the club was bought? Who was on the board when the club was bought? What was the state of the infrastructure of the club before it was bought?

Before these charlatans bought Blackburn Rovers I was so proud of my club. Good men were involved in the day to day running, all with the same intention, to do what was best for Blackburn Rovers. John Williams, Tom Finn, Martin Goodman. All cast aside and completely ignored.

This club has been a complete shambles since Venkys took over, and yet you come on here with your stupid photo of that awful woman, bleating on about us staying up.

So what if we stay up. We'll still be in the same mess as we are now. The summer will be another embarrassing fiasco of Steve Kean talking complete ######, largely poor transfers and ridiculous aspirations of the Champions League. This club is poisoned and is slowly being brought to its knees by Venkys, Jerome Anderson and Steve Kean.

I bet you'll be buying a season ticket next year won't you? I certainly won't. This does not feel like my club anymore,it is a car crash waiting to happen.

[Mercer]

See that press now commenting that Bruce to Wolves back on. Hope you guys got that money on !

Could he turn it around - just maybe.

Might leave us looking for another number 2 though !

[Mattyblue]

I got on at 9's Mercer with Betfair, I'll trade out at Evens I think and take the profit, thanking you!