[Archived] 2011/12: The Final Countdown

[rovers11]

If that QPR come back was uncomfortable for us, it will have been balls breaking for Notlob, Wigan and Wolves fans.

QPR are at the same Sunderland side we have just beaten this coming Saturday when we are in Horwich so they could well go ahead of us if we lose.

38 points to stay up still looking so silly?

You'll see a very different sunderland on Saturday.

[Lurid Coat]

Still a lot better than before the Wolves game even if it doesn't feel it tonight

Probably true, but somehow this highly unexpected QPR win has made me expect us to crack under the pressure and lose to Bolton, and QPR and Bolton to overtake us in the end.

I'm also an eternal pessimist, if you didn't catch that already....

[rovers11]

Always likely that QPR would win at least one of their "unwinnable" fixtures and glass-jaw Pool were probably the likeliest victims. But a loss at Bolton and another surprise win for QPR puts us right back in the s***

Is it really a shock QPR beat liverpool? Yes, 2-0 up they should go on to win but liverpool are bang average by their standards. I'd be disappointed if we lost to them at ewood.

[Kamy100]

We have to remember that we were almost dead and buried at Christmas, so it is minor miracle that we have got into this position, we were never going to pull away, this was always going to go down to the wire. I still wouldn't swop our current position with any of the other clubs.

[braddock]

If that QPR come back was uncomfortable for us, it will have been balls breaking for Notlob, Wigan and Wolves fans.

QPR are at the same Sunderland side we have just beaten this coming Saturday when we are in Horwich so they could well go ahead of us if we lose.

38 points to stay up still looking so silly?

To answer your question, yes.

And if there's a team I want QPR to be playing outside the top 5 it's Sunderland. I fully expect O Neill to be looking for a reply. In the same sense that QPR had their result against a big team tonight, Sunderland had their defeat to a relegation candidate last night. Normal service to resume come the weekend.

Your first sentence was a good one though.

[rovers11]

To answer your question, yes.

And if there's a team I want QPR to be playing outside the top 5 it's Sunderland. I fully expect O Neill to be looking for a reply. In the same sense that QPR had their result against a big team tonight, Sunderland had their defeat to a relegation candidate last night. Normal service to resume come the weekend.

Your first sentence was a good one though.

I actually agree with this. Good post.

[Parsonblue]

Normal service to resume come the weekend.

Which could mean that we go back to losing!!!

I still think that 35 points might be enough but obviously if we lose on Saturday and QPR manage to win at Sunderland that figure would have to be revised.

Ultimately, it's in our own hands. If we match what the other teams do over their last nine games we survive.

[Mercer]

You'll see a very different sunderland on Saturday.

Oh no you wont - they'll be even more 'careful' given their cup replay next Tuesday. QPR will win.

[davulsukur]

Thats the problem, normally i would have been confident that Sunderland at home, under O'Neil would bring a home win but with the cup replay on their minds i think QPR might nick it.

In reality we all knew when Hughes took over QPR, at some point they would start picking up results. Yes he had a bad start as manager but we all know how good a manager he is.

I think we have to beat Bolton on Saturday.

[rovers11]

Oh no you wont - they'll be even more 'careful' given their cup replay next Tuesday. QPR will win.

You could be right but O'neil won't accept another performance like the one they had against us. He might make a few changes by bringing in players like Colback, possibly Richardson if fit, maybe Ji, O'Shea.

My overall picture of the relegation race is this: a very conservative estimate would be that we pick up another 6 points from our remaining games which would take us to 34 points.

QPR - would have to pick up 9 points just to go level with us. I would also expect their goal difference to take a significant hit with the top five to play (so fully expect us to have a better goal difference to them). That means that they would need 10 points from their 9 remaining games to overhaul us. Big ask when they have the top 5 to play but can be done.

Bolton - Bolton will need 11 points from 10 games to go level with us. We have a better goal difference and would expect that to remain so they essentially need 12 points from 10 games. They have decent fixtures left but their home form is horrible.

Wigan and Wolves - with us 6 already above these two and with a significantly better gd, I would estimate that these two need 13 points from 9 games to overhaul us. Very unlikely.

Do people agree with that analysis?

[Mercer]

The last quarter of the season is the most unpredictable to call.

Teams win matches you wouldn't normally wouldn't expect them to owing to all sorts of circumstances affecting the opposition !

Better to have points on the board, which we do to a degree but make no mistake about it, we have some hugely difficult fixtures coming-up and we are about to find out if our lot can stand the heat !

[Kamy100]

You could be right but O'neil won't accept another performance like the one they had against us. He might make a few changes by bringing in players like Colback, possibly Richardson if fit, maybe Ji, O'Shea.

My overall picture of the relegation race is this: a very conservative estimate would be that we pick up another 6 points from our remaining games which would take us to 34 points.

QPR - would have to pick up 9 points just to go level with us. I would also expect their goal difference to take a significant hit with the top five to play (so fully expect us to have a better goal difference to them). That means that they would need 10 points from their 9 remaining games to overhaul us. Big ask when they have the top 5 to play but can be done.

Bolton - Bolton will need 11 points from 10 games to go level with us. We have a better goal difference and would expect that to remain so they essentially need 12 points from 10 games. They have decent fixtures left but their home form is horrible.

Wigan and Wolves - with us 6 already above these two and with a significantly better gd, I would estimate that these two need 13 points from 9 games to overhaul us. Very unlikely.

Do people agree with that analysis?

I agree but TBH is this kinda situation you will always get unexpected results.

Saturday will have a big bearing on the final total needed to stay up, if QPR don't beat Sunderland then 35 points should be enough, if they do win then likely to need 37 points. Essential that we don't lose to Bolton, a win would be a massive bonus.

[rovers11]

I agree but TBH is this kinda situation you will always get unexpected results.

Saturday will have a big bearing on the final total needed to stay up, if QPR don't beat Sunderland then 35 points should be enough, if they do win then likely to need 37 points. Essential that we don't lose to Bolton, a win would be a massive bonus.

Yes, it is impossible to predict and you might find that teams pick up points when you don't expect and drop points when you don't expect. I wouldn't have expected us, for instance, beat Man Utd and Arsenal and lose to West Brom and Bolton at home. That's why I think it's better to look at the overall picture of what points tally a team might get rather than looking at individual games.

[Audax]

The Clubs, all 5 have played so lousy this year, perhaps there was so much expectation of QPR losing it and of course, seeing Liverpool up by 2 made that comeback all the worse. So psychologically, for the other 4 clubs, yeah, one hated seeing that. I noted when someone posted the table since Dec. 31st, 3 of the bottom clubs were still 3 of the bottom 5.

I also said out of the bottom 5, there could be a good likelihood that one of the clubs would break from the pack. Not to be overly optimistic but that could still happen. Maybe the whole group could start getting near the 14th place team, Villa I believe with 33 points. Outside chance of that too.

And Wigan having a tough road in the immediate weeks to come.

Gutsy win by QPR, have to respect that and as said, it puts more on the other 3 'at the moment'.

[savage90]

No need to worry, QPR beat liverpool... I think we will do exactly the same thing at Ewood, we will also pick points up from Wigan and Norwich. Will QPR and Bolton get this many and more? Probably not.

[Mercer]

Just a thought - since Boxing Day, we've had a decent run gathering 18 points from 14 matches.

Hate to say this but we are 'due' the almost inevitable bad run that sides like us suffer and, unfortunately, it might just come at the wrong time.

[braddock]

Just a thought - since Boxing Day, we've had a decent run gathering 18 points from 14 matches.

Hate to say this but we are 'due' the almost inevitable bad run that sides like us suffer and, unfortunately, it might just come at the wrong time.

Really?

[neophox]

Sessegnon, Colback and O'Shea will probably play on saturday for Sunderland. Ssegnon is an important player and has just served his 3 match ban. Hard game for QPR as Sunderland is strong at home.

a win or a draw is what we need against Bolton!

[DE.]

Weren't you saying a few days Mercerman there was no chance of us going down?

[braddock]

Weren't you saying a few days Mercerman there was no chance of us going down?

After speaking to the ticket office on an unrelated matter his optimism has plummeted.

[Tom]

Just a thought - since Boxing Day, we've had a decent run gathering 18 points from 14 matches.

Hate to say this but we are 'due' the almost inevitable bad run that sides like us suffer and, unfortunately, it might just come at the wrong time.

I think we had that pre Christmas didnt we?

I'm almost more nervous about the QPR game this weekend, I expect us to lose but if QPR did as well I would feel a lot better about our situation for some reason.

[Mercer]

Weren't you saying a few days Mercerman there was no chance of us going down?

Still confident we wont but it's going to be a close run thing !

After speaking to the ticket office on an unrelated matter his optimism has plummeted.

Get a life or job young man.

[braddock]

Get a life or job young man.

I'm at work my dear friend. Working tonight to, or at least on standby for it, as my bosses child is having a major heart operation so I've offered to take his other child to his cycling competition, me being a nice chap and all.

[Tom]

And so it swings again bolton beat us to o within 2 with a game in hand, Wigan beat Liverpool to go within 3 points and 8 or so goals but QPR and wolves both lose.

Realistically we can expect to lose against united so a QPR win next week along with a Bolton win sees us back in the drop zone.

Still in our hands but we look very likely to drop into the bottom 3 within the next few games

[imy9]

QPR have the in form side in Arsenal to play.

I can see Wolves beating Bolton next week.