[Archived] Realistic February aims

[philipl]

Bristol City (H)- 3 points

Ipswich (H)- 3 points

Brighton (A)- 0 points

Hull (A)- 1 point

Leeds (H)- 3 points

Leicester (A)- 0 points

10 points, ( and a thrashing at Arsenal.)

But that will drop us further out of contention for the play-offs.

We need 3 wins from the next 5.

[Plastics]

But that will drop us further out of contention for the play-offs.

We need 3 wins from the next 5.

You don't know how far that will put us from the play-offs as as far as I'm aware they haven't played their games yet.

[RibbleValleyRover]

But that will drop us further out of contention for the play-offs.

We need 3 wins from the next 5.

The thread title is 'Realistic February aims'. There is no way Rovers go unbeaten this month - which they probably would have to do to stand any chance of getting promotion this season (unless one or two clubs in the playoffs spots have a major meltdown- I can't see it).

My predictions:

Ipswich (H)- 3 points

Brighton (A)- 0 points

Hull (A)- 1 point

Leeds (H)- 1 points

Leicester (A)- 0 points

Ipswich at home we should win. Brighton away is very tough, I think they will dominate our weaker midfield. Hull look really strong, went for a point but this could easily be a loss as it's a home game for them. Leeds on their day are a really tough prospect to face. Leicester look strong.

Apart from the Ipswich game pretty much every remaining game on paper looks tough in Feb.

[philipl]

You don't know how far that will put us from the play-offs as as far as I'm aware they haven't played their games yet.

At this stage of the season and with so many teams potentially challenging for 6th, some teams are definitely going to get more than 7 points from the next 5 games so yes we will be slipping behind.

The points total to look for is 73 to get into the play-off- the average for 6th over the last 12 seasons. 47 points from 34 games at the end of February means getting 26 from the last 12 including a trip to Cardiff- make that 26 from 11 which is 2.5 points per game.

Realistically, we have already blown it.

[Plastics]

At this stage of the season and with so many teams potentially challenging for 6th, some teams are definitely going to get more than 7 points from the next 5 games so yes we will be slipping behind.

The points total to look for is 73 to get into the play-off- the average for 6th over the last 12 seasons. 47 points from 34 games at the end of February means getting 26 from the last 12 including a trip to Cardiff- make that 26 from 11 which is 2.5 points per game.

I'm sure some teams will indeed pick up wins but given there is a 4 point gap between 6th and 7th, if 7th are the ones who do pick up a few wins and we were to match Middlesborough's potential modest return, then we wouldn't necessarily lose any ground on 6th place at all.

[BuckyRover]

You are wrong. Its not over until its over. Every fan knows that (the Peterborough fans who went to Cardiff for example).

[JAL]

All those teams we play in february arent that good, its just that we arent that good either.

Regardless though, the target for february should be to win all of them and get a real momentum going.

One game at a time.

[Plastics]

I remember when Blackpool were running away with this league. I remember when Peterborough were down. I remember when Wolves were poor, then all of a sudden they were contenders, now they are poor again.

[DE.]

The thread title is 'Realistic February aims'. There is no way Rovers go unbeaten this month - which they probably would have to do to stand any chance of getting promotion this season (unless one or two clubs in the playoffs spots have a major meltdown- I can't see it).

My predictions:

Ipswich (H)- 3 points

Brighton (A)- 0 points

Hull (A)- 1 point

Leeds (H)- 1 points

Leicester (A)- 0 points

Ipswich at home we should win. Brighton away is very tough, I think they will dominate our weaker midfield. Hull look really strong, went for a point but this could easily be a loss as it's a home game for them. Leeds on their day are a really tough prospect to face. Leicester look strong.

Apart from the Ipswich game pretty much every remaining game on paper looks tough in Feb.

I wouldn't be so dismissive of Ipswich. They have a decent manager in McCarthy and just thumped a decent Boro side 4-0. It won't be a walkover.

[Plastics]

All those teams we play in february arent that good, its just that we arent that good either.

Regardless though, the target for february should be to win all of them.

One game at a time.

To win games is always the target. We are talking realistic aims. Please read the thread.

[RibbleValleyRover]

I wouldn't be so dismissive of Ipswich. They have a decent manager in McCarthy and just thumped a decent Boro side 4-0. It won't be a walkover.

Boro have lost the last four games, it's might be a bit early to tell how good a win that was for Ipswich. Though I do accept that McCarthy is certainly capable of bringing his side to Ewood and getting three points.

The biggest question going into our run is how good are we playing at the moment? Bristol City had their chances (they hit the woodwork twice) and didn't play too badly, just superior finishing with our chances got us the win. I think we are a bit of an unknown quantity at the moment, but these fixtures coming up against some of the sides making strong promotion pushes will be a real test and a good indication about how well we are really playing.

[JAL]

To win games is always the target. We are talking realistic aims. Please read the thread.

OK then realistically why are people saying Rovers cant win those games.

[Plastics]

OK then realistically why are people saying Rovers cant win those games.

Realistically we can win each individual game but it isn't very realistic to expect to win them all.

This wouldn't be much of a thread if it was just asking what result you want (maybe you don't think it's much of a thread at all but that's another matter).

My thoughts behind making the thread was to gauge expectation and also to see how positive or negative people on here are, both in terms of predictions and also in their reaction to what happens - if the outcome was indeed different to their original realistic hopes then how they respond to that. Also there will be times when people have realistic hopes, these are met and that person persists with negativity as they are determined to look on the down side of things. This also works conversely as there will be some who set out their realistic hopes, see that they aren't met but remain overly positive. It could be interesting to see different posters and the way they view and react to things and give an insight into how they tick. It's unlikely to be quite the social experiment I anticipate in my utopian mind as there will be plenty of bickering (and I'll no doubt contribute, like in this post) but I figured I'd see how it went.

I guess I wanted it to be a little deeper than what you have so far given it credit for.

[RibbleValleyRover]

Rovers are a mid table side. I think it's pretty realistic and not overly negative to suggest that they aren't going to go unbeaten in Feb. If we were playing the bottom 5 teams in the league then maybe, but even then that's not a gimme.

[Steve Moss]

Top 6 places have needed 75, 70, 74, 70, 75 sand 75 points over the last 6 years.

We're on 40 points after 29 matches with 17 matches still to play. Based on historical requirements, we need 30-35 points in 17 matches, or 1.75 to 2.1 points per game (rounded up).

Tough, but doable.

[darrenrover]

Being optimistic we'll win them all.

Being pessimistic we'll lose them all.

Being realistic probably 5 points and out of the cup.

Being cynical much will depend on the aspirations of Mumbai Bet365 or DelhiDawns.

[Rover_Shaun]

OK then realistically why are people saying Rovers cant win those games.

Because we are not a very good side

[Baz]

But that will drop us further out of contention for the play-offs.

We need 3 wins from the next 5.

I dont think we will finish near the playoffs. Its not particularly the points gap, more the no of teams between us and 6th place. If we went on a great run, we'd need more or less every team between us and 6th to have a bad run in the same period. I cant see either happening to be honest. 10 points in Feb is close to what we have been getting over the course of the season, so I think its realistic to expect similar for the rest of the season. I hope Im wrong, but cant see it.

[philipl]

Top 6 places have needed 75, 70, 74, 70, 75 sand 75 points over the last 6 years. We're on 40 points after 29 matches with 17 matches still to play. Based on historical requirements, we need 30-35 points in 17 matches, or 1.75 to 2.1 points per game (rounded up).

Tough, but doable.

Agreed. That means 10 points from the next 5 games or 13 for the month. So win 3 draw 1 lose 1 in the next 5 is par.

[Steve Moss]

My take is that Rovers win this weekend at will be on 43 points, with 30 matches played. This is the only outcome Rovers can control, so we really need to be behind the team. From many thousands of miles away I'll commune with the crytsals and think positive thoughts.

On not so positive thoughts, this Friday, Watford v Palace, I'm not certain whether a Watford win is better for us or a draw. Either way, one or both of these top 6 teams will pull away from us.

On Saturday, Leeds will win or draw, and be sitting on 42 or 44 points, with 30 matches played.

Forest seems to be imploding due to owner drama, and so should lose. They'll be on 41 points with 31 matches played.

Milwall should defeat Blackpool, and so will be on 44 points with 31 matches played.

While maybe optimistic, I'm thinking Derby draws against SW, so will be on 42 points with 30 matches played.

Hull will smash Brighton, so Hull will be on 56 points with 30 matches played while Brighton will be on 42 points with 30 matches played.

I'm hoping Burnley draws with Bolton, so Burnley will be on 44 points with 31 matches played.

Though I hate it, I think Middlesborough will beat Barnsley and so will be on 50 points with 30 matches played.

At the end of the weekend, we'll still have a 7 point gap between us and the playoffs, but should move up the table 3-4 spots. Better, we'll have a game in hand on 3 of the teams ahead of us and should be in a good position to close in on 7th. The bigger problem is bridging the gap between 7th and 6th.

What we really need, in addition to a Rover win, is for Barnsley to exceed expectations and beat Middlesborough, bringing them within 4 points of Rovers.

If Agnew had a clue (he doesn't) the club would be offering massive incentives to fill Ewood this last part of the season. Things like 1 pound children's ticket if an adult ticket is purchased, etc. The Rovers need a full stadium and that 12th man desperately if they want to maximize the odds of that play-off spot. Being not so bright, they'll instead pretend nothing is wrong and try mere words to woo and/or guilt the fans into Ewood. They'll fail.

[Plastics]

I think it's fair to say most Rovers fans will be up for a Watford win. We aren't going to be catching them. It's going to be hard enough catching 6th.

I'm unsure why you aren't hoping for a Bolton win against Burnley.

[DE.]

If we lose on Saturday I get the feeling the atmosphere in this thread is going to take a massive plunge into doom

[Plastics]

If we lose any game it will. But no one defeat alone will cost us our chance.

[DE.]

That's my point, though. I don't think people are being realistic, assumedly because we're on an OK run of form at the moment. As soon as we lose this thread will swing in the total opposite direction.

[Plastics]

It's part of the reason why I made the thread. If you keep it going for a month you can come back to it, see peoples reactions at the start, see the reactions at the end and look if their reaction is fair to what they predicted.

And also if they have a rollercoaster of reactions from game to game. Hopefully people will learn to chill out a bit if they see how ridiculous they can be at times.