[Archived] Climate Change

[dave birch]

Repeat after me 10 times.

The polar ice caps are currently increasing.

Some scientists are saying we are going to have a period of global cooling.

The Earth goes through periods of global warming and global cooling.

It is natural and Kean all to do with us.

This would tend to dispute your argument, Al.

AFP

An aerial view of a crack at the Pine Island Glacier ice shelf seen in western Antarctica (Reuters: Goddard Space Flight Center)

Antarctica's Pine Island Glacier, one of the biggest single contributors to world sea-level rise, is melting irreversibly and could add as much as a centimetre to ocean levels in 20 years, say scientists.

The glacier "has started a phase of self-sustained retreat and will irreversibly continue its decline," says Gael Durand, a glaciologist with France's Grenoble Alps University.

Durand and an international team used three different models to forecast the glacier's future based on the "grounding line," which is the area under water where the ice shelf - a sea-floating extension of the continent-covering ice sheet - meets land.

This line has receded by about 10 kilometres in the past decade.

The grounding line "is probably engaged in an unstable 40 kilometre retreat," according to the study, published in the journal Nature Climate Change.

A massive river of ice, the glacier by itself is responsible for 20 per cent of total ice loss from the West Antarctic Ice Sheet today.

On average, it shed 20 billion tonnes of ice annually from 1992-2011, a loss that is likely to increase up to and above 100 billion tonnes each year, the study's authors write.

This is equivalent to 3.5 to 10 millimetres of global average sea-level rise over the next 20 years.

The global mean sea level rose by 3.2 millimetres in 2010 - itself a near-doubling from the rate of two decades earlier.

The European Space Agency said last month that the West Antarctic ice sheet was shedding ice at a much faster rate than before - currently at about 150 cubic kilometres per year.

Climate scientists are keeping a worried eye on the mighty ice sheets of Greenland and Antarctica, as continued losses could threaten vulnerable coastal cities with dangerously high sea levels.

Last year, the United Nations' climate science body, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) projected sea levels would rise between 26 and 82 centimetres by 2100.

[Al]

How does that tend to dispute my argument that climate change is a natural phenomenon?

[broadsword]

Show me indisputable proof that there is a sustained upward trend in global temperatures since the industrial revolution, and that that rise cannot be ascribed to random noise on the bigger timeline of the Earth's lifespan. And that that trend can be reversed by the general public using LED light bulbs and cycling everywhere.

There's too much emotive language being used, and not enough proof being offered. Just because a guy has a beard and a lab coat, doesn't make him right.

If indeed there is this man-made phenomena, I can't see how individuals can have any effect on it whatsoever, mainly because of the tragedy of the commons, but also since I don't think individuals produce that much carbon. I eat meat (grains give me terrible gut-ache, vegetarianism just isn't an option for me), yes I go on holiday, I also use public transport for the majority of my journeys.

I suspect that it is major industry that produces the vast majority of carbon, but putting the scares on people and telling them to use LED light-bulbs is so much easier than threatening big business with carbon compliance. And in any case, unless you reduce carbon usage to nil, it will still get used up as there are only finite supplies.

In the mean-time, I struggle to overcome the suspicion that everything that gets put out for public consumption is intended to scare the wits out of people, with the unspoken subtext that the world's going to end this week. Enough already. Really gets on my raspberries.

Oh no! I just farted and let off some methane, put me in the stocks! Oh, looky here, I just got on a train, send me to the tower! Off with my head!

PATHETIC.

[Amo]

Why do people even waste time talking about "climate change" or global warming? It's not like there's anything we can feasibly do about it whether it's man-made (which it isn't) or not. There are far more topical issues we ought to be focusing our time and money on instead of this fool's errand.

[dave birch]

Repeat after me 10 times.

The polar ice caps are currently increasing.

Some scientists are saying we are going to have a period of global cooling.

The Earth goes through periods of global warming and global cooling.

It is natural and Kean all to do with us.

You stated, as highlighted.

This suggests that the polar icecaps are decreasing.

Whether it's caused by man or not is another matter.

[Al]

You stated, as highlighted.

This suggests that the polar icecaps are decreasing.

Whether it's caused by man or not is another matter.

Don't know how old the report is that you are quoting but recently I have seen reports that the polar ice caps have increased to such an extent that a ship there to demonstrate the opposite was trapped by ice that they had not expected.

In any event I do not dispute that global warming and cooling happens but I am on the side of the scientists who believe that it is natural.

[dave birch]

Al, the ship recently stuck there was as a result of winds blowing the pack ice back towards the "shore".

It also ensnared a rescue ship (chinese, iirc) and they were released as a result of a change in the winds, but after all the people were removed by helicopter (I refuse to us the term "helicoptered")

The copy that I put up earlier was a recent article.

[Al]

See last line of my post.

[Steve Moss]

An interesting and, I think, even handed article on climate change:

http://www.hoover.org/publications/defining-ideas/article/165756

[yoda]

Maybe this is the reason

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-25743806

[broadsword]

No, it's David Cameron's fault:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-25793358

Tories out!

[yoda]

No, it's David Cameron's fault:

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-oxfordshire-25793358

Tories out!

Where is David Icke when you need him

[Steve Moss]

I never understood those who think bad weather is divine retribution. If they read their Bible, they'd realize we are all sinners and God forgives.

[Mike E]

I never understood those who think bad weather is divine retribution. If they read their Bible, they'd realize we are all sinners and God forgives.

If they engaged their brains, they'd know God is as 'forgiving' as Jigsaw or the Woman in Black.

[Steve Moss]

Europe is apparently backing off action on climate change:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/european-commission-move-away-from-climate-protection-goals-a-943664.html

[dave birch]

Europe is apparently backing off action on climate change:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/europe/european-commission-move-away-from-climate-protection-goals-a-943664.html

and here's a reason why they shouldn't.....

This, lifted from the ABC (Australia) news website:

"America's two top scientific agencies have released separate reports on last year's climate, confirming the global warming trend is continuing.

The American space agency, NASA, releases a climate report each year - alongside a separate report from its sister agency, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA).

The two agencies collect their data separately and their reports show slightly different results. But the trend is clear.

At least nine of the warmest years on record have happened since 2000.

According to NOAA, 2013 was the fourth warmest year for the planet since records began in 1880.

Ocean temperatures were half a degree Celsius above the 20th century average.

NASA says carbon dioxide is at its highest level in the atmosphere in 800,000 years, having risen from 285 parts per million in 1880 to 400 parts per million last year.

Unless current trends change, the world should expect each of the coming decades to be warmer than the last, NASA climatologist Gavin Schmidt says.

He describes the warming of the past few decades as "unusual," and urges people not to judge whether climate change is happening or not based on random weather events like cold snaps.

"The long-term trends in climate are extremely robust," he said.

"People have a very short memory when it comes to their own experience of weather and climate, and the only way that we can have a long-term assessment of what is going on is by looking at the data."

Last year also marked the 37th year in a row with higher than average global temperatures.

El Nino could create hotter 2014

A key difference between last year and other top years of the past decade is that 2013 had no El Nino effect to warm the equatorial region, a weather phenomenon that would have been expected to cause an uptick in global temperatures.

Forecasters say El Nino could return in 2014, with the potential to make this coming year even hotter than last.

Another concerning effect of global warming is the melting of sea ice in the Arctic, which is expected to cause sea level rises over time that will endanger coastal communities around the world.

"Arctic sea ice is down considerably, especially over the past 10 to 11 years," the director of NOAA's Climatic Data Center, Tom Karl, said.

Last year marked the sixth smallest sea ice extent in the Arctic on record, while the Antarctic saw the opposite trend, and sea ice was above average.

While most of the world experienced above-average annual temperatures, a few small regions in the central United States, eastern Pacific and South America were cooler than average, according to NOAA.

ABC/AFP"

I make no comment about what causes it.

....

[Guest Norbert]

Probably the likes of Al Gore and the various big summits talking a lot and then going home after a nice working holiday somewhere.

[Audax]

"Southwest England inundated by floodwaters for a month; crisis re-ignites climate debate"- http://www.startribune.com/politics/national/243324951.html

THORNEY, England — As children climb into boats to get to school and scores of hoses pump floodwaters from fields day and night, one corner of southwest England is trying to reclaim its land. Other Britons watch and wonder: How much can you fight the sea?

Here on the Somerset Levels — a marshy, low-lying region dotted with farmland and villages and crisscrossed by rivers — thousands of acres have been under water for weeks.

Some villages have been cut off for a month, leaving residents who have been forced to make long detours or take boats to school, work or grocery shops frustrated and angry. Some blame government budget cuts and inept environmental bureaucracy. Others point to climate change. Some wonder if flood defenses for major cities like nearby Bristol or London will take precedence over protecting their rural hamlets.

More at the link.

[Paul]

The Environment Agency have been quite clear, while the flooding may lead to discussion on Climate Change there is no direct link.

As for once in 100 years? It's irrelevant , no reason why the first floods should not have occurred in the 100th year of the first cycle and the 1st year of the second. Once in 100 years doesn't mean it can't happen for another 100 years.

[SouthAussieRover]

The area where I am had its hottest day on record on January 16th at 43.6 only for it to be broken again on February 2nd at 44.9.

I dont know if its climate change or not but the heatwaves are happening more frequently and with a greater intensity.

[dave birch]

Bit warm, that, Don.

Did you get down the beach to cool off?

[perthblue02]

The area where I am had its hottest day on record on January 16th at 43.6 only for it to be broken again on February 2nd at 44.9.

I dont know if its climate change or not but the heatwaves are happening more frequently and with a greater intensity.

We hit those temps in Perth the other week (think it didn't quite hit the record temp), when the first round of bush fires started, currently a new outbreak in the southern suburbs, getting a bit to close for comfort. For a couple of nights it only dropped to low 30's .From my limited experience of being over here (7th year) certainly does feel like summers are getting hotter and longer.

When I first arrived it was May and thought it was hot then, boy was I in for a shock that first summer

[SouthAussieRover]

Bit warm, that, Don.

Did you get down the beach to cool off?

The beach was no cooler Dave!! So it was inside for me with the AC.

We hit those temps in Perth the other week (think it didn't quite hit the record temp), when the first round of bush fires started, currently a new outbreak in the southern suburbs, getting a bit to close for comfort. For a couple of nights it only dropped to low 30's .From my limited experience of being over here (7th year) certainly does feel like summers are getting hotter and longer.

When I first arrived it was May and thought it was hot then, boy was I in for a shock that first summer

Yep we get Perths weather 2 or 3 days later!

We arrived in a May too..happy with tshirts back then but its jumper weather these days.

[thenodrog]

http://britishexpats.com/forum/showthread.php?t=737599

I particularly like the last entry on Nov 20.

[SouthAussieRover]

Yes Theno you often quote that joke...

I think of Bill Hicks..im not a @#/? lizard.