[Archived] Is world war 3 about to kick off, starting in Ukraine

[Steve Kean's Hypnotoad]

I'd imagine the first few paragraphs of that post are pretty shocking to most of the anti-American lefties in this country Steve. They like the image of America as a war-crazed loudmouth country who overstates and overacts according to its own inflated view of its dominance in the world. The reality, if not forever then certainly for a while yet, is it could smash any of these gobby, aggressive, idiotically undiplomatic countries like Russia etc anytime it wanted, and exhibits considerable restraint and maturity in never even hinting it will do. To the point of people actually assuming it can't.

China's government-sponsored military electronic attacks on the west, Russia harbouring criminals like Snowden and supplying arms to Syria, spiteful ****holes like North Korea threatening war every couple of years. And America sits there and sits there, not reacting, despite having enormous power to do so. And still gets constant flack from the liberals. Its truly baffling to me. We can all only hope the next world superpower will be so almost pathologically reluctant to flex its military muscles, and if its China then it blatantly won't.

[Stuart]

Seems like with every month that passes the Tories are taking closer and closer to the 80s.

What next, a Pet Shop Boys comeback?

[ABBEY]

Ukraine had planes shot at

[Steve Moss]

An unarmed monitor is fired upon. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26499328

As referenced by Abbey, Ukrainian observation plane is also fired upon. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10682341/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-live.html

[SIMON GARNERS 194]

''America could squash Russia and China like a bug if it actually wanted to take the gloves off''

Oh really?....take another wild guess at this one..who the hell would be the victor in a Nuclear WW3!?!?

[Paul]

I'm not sure that's occurred to our resident warmongers.

[Tyrone Shoelaces]

An unarmed monitor is fired upon. http://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-26499328

As referenced by Abbey, Ukrainian observation plane is also fired upon. http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/europe/ukraine/10682341/Ukraine-Russia-crisis-live.html

Mm, not another " Gulf Of Tonkin Incident " surely . Maybe The Reds shot down that missing airliner as well. You people have a really simplistic view of World politics.

[Mike E]

So this 'illegal' referendum.....is it toys out the pram on the EU's part? We were never told it was illegal (on the news, anyway) until the result came out in favour of Russia.

[Paul]

I certainly knew the EU considered the referendum illegitimate or invalid prior to the vote. Whether that's the same as illegal, clearly not by definition but maybe by meaning in EU speak, and I just don't know.

[Guest Norbert]

I think the Russians are only a majority there because the likes of Stalin killed and deported hundreds of thousands of Tartars, replacing them with Russian speaking people. So the reasons for the land grab are a bit shaky. We'll do nothing as usual though, because we're all scared about gas supplies.

[ultrablue]

I might have a slightly different opinion on this. To me the weak leader looks like Putin. He has lost all sway in Ukraine as the majority of people there have made a clear statement that they want closer ties with western europe. Despite throwing money at the former government in Ukraine, Putin couldn't stop the tide of public opinion.

As for Crimea, Russia has maintained a Black Sea port there for years. Reclaiming Crimea has given Putin no strategic advantage that he did not have already. He was forced into action to save face, and now he has ended up with something he pretty much had control of already, at the cost of pissing off the U.S. and thr EU. Not to mention billions spent on a goodwill exercise at the Olympics that has now gone up in smoke.

As Obama said, he is on the wrong side of history. it seems Putin is grasping for something, but he is well on his way over the edge. The huge fuss over Crimea is the last thing he needed.

[Guest Norbert]

Never mind he has that silly bitch who runs Argentina on his side, so imports of Corned Beef will be unaffected. It gave her an excuse to whine about the Falklands again and draw comparisons.

Their economy must be tanking. Again.

[Audax]

Serious looking stuff going on, I heard a Ukrainian soldier killed this morning by masked gunmen per De Welt, also http://news.yahoo.com/ukrainian-soldier-killed-crimea-defence-ministry-162118792.html?.tsrc=tmob ; Turkey is threatening to close a waterway, the Bosphurus to the Russians. http://www.novinite.com/view_news.php?id=159035

[Guest Norbert]

Turkey might end up next if they do, unless they're part of NATO now. Long term, we just stop messing about and get a few nuclear power stations, and not rely so much on gas. Germany would find that difficult as their Green party is fairly powerful but it would make dealing with Russia easier.

[Dreyski]

Mike, the referendum is 'illegal' because it should not be Russia or Crimea who decides what happens on Ukrainian territory. Imagine UK claiming Majorca or Tenerife...

[Mike E]

Mike, the referendum is 'illegal' because it should not be Russia or Crimea who decides what happens on Ukrainian territory. Imagine UK claiming Majorca or Tenerife...

I thought Crimea was basically like the Russia/Ukraine version of The Falklands :/

I'll be honest I struggle to understand all this political crap.

If we just had more of our own industry and were relatively self-sufficient, this wouldn't be any business of ours.

[Jeru tha Damaja]

Mob seizes power in Kyiv...the will of the people cannot be ignored.

The people of Crimea voted to be part of Russia...this is unacceptable.

Does our foreign policy ever seem slightly incoherent to anyone else?

[Guest Norbert]

A load of Russian soldiers marching in and declaring a region of another country should have a referendum to ask if they can take over is a bit different though. Never mind it is all the EU and America's fault..........

[Stuart]

I thought Crimea was basically like the Russia/Ukraine version of The Falklands :/

I'll be honest I struggle to understand all this political crap.

If we just had more of our own industry oil and gas reserves and were relatively self-sufficient, this wouldn't be any business of ours.

[Jeru tha Damaja]

Where were the Russian soldiers in 1992 when Crimea voted to be autonomous from Ukraine and also for the right to dual citizenship because the majority of the population believed themselves to be Russian?

[Mike E]

Stuart, how about shale gas?

[Guest Norbert]

Where were the Russian soldiers in 1992 when Crimea voted to be autonomous from Ukraine and also for the right to dual citizenship because the majority of the population believed themselves to be Russian?

I believe they did have a degree of autonomy before Putin made his land grab. Let's not forget that the Russians invaded and took over the Crimean region from the Ottomans in 1783, and promptly massacred the Tartars, replacing them with Slavic populations. A trick pulled again by Stalin by sending many thousands to the Gulags after World War 2, after deciding the whole lot of them collaborated with the Nazis. So the majority were probably of Russian descent because over time, Russia got rid of the populations that had been there before.

And on the wider Ukraine/Russia issue, millions of Ukrainians were brutally killed or left to starve in the 1930's because of the liquidation of Kulaks and collectivisation, with people like Krushchev earning their chops making sure the residents don't complain by repressive means. That, and a general discrimination against Ukrainians throughout the Soviet era has given them reason to be pretty peed off with Russians.

Oh, and Yanokovich has been in bed with the Russians for years, letting Putin's middle men and fixers tinker with election results and domestic policy to suit Russian ends. That was probably the reason for the Orange Revolution, which saw what looked like an attempt to poison Viktor Yuschenko. So perhaps the current situation is more like Ukrainians being tired of being bullied into being a puppet state by their bigger neighbour, and the Crimean problem is just Putin wanting to build a bigger base for the Black Sea fleet, with a kick in the knackers for Ukraine for good measure. I doubt the Tartar minority will enjoy being under Russian rule, though I may be wrong.

Some people are just so, I don't know, anti-USA, anti-globalisation, anti-'the West' that they see Putin as some sort of......hero for being his own man and getting what he wants. That is despite all the vote rigging, invasions of his neighbours, murders and imprisonment of critics, persecution of gays etc. That is all swept under the carpet because he sticks two fingers up to Obama and western multinationals.

[Steve Moss]

Turkey might end up next if they do, unless they're part of NATO now. Long term, we just stop messing about and get a few nuclear power stations, and not rely so much on gas. Germany would find that difficult as their Green party is fairly powerful but it would make dealing with Russia easier.

Turkey is a member of NATO.

Turkey has an active duty military of over 600,000 troops, about 5x the number of the Ukraine.

While Russia's navy is doubtless much larger than Turkey's, it's spread about several seas and oceans, while Turkey's is relatively well concentrated.

And I believe the USA, in particular its naval components, would be far more aggressive in defending Turkey than it has been with the Ukraine, at least so far.

So I very much hope Turkey does cut Russia's shipping (and navy) off from the Mediterranean. It would be a real "sanction", one that would be a tremendous blow to Russia's economy and pride. It's just the sharp lesson that Putin needs but thinks he won't get due to the lack of moral fiber in our Western leaders.

[Jeru tha Damaja]

I believe they did have a degree of autonomy before Putin made his land grab. Let's not forget that the Russians invaded and took over the Crimean region from the Ottomans in 1783, and promptly massacred the Tartars, replacing them with Slavic populations. A trick pulled again by Stalin by sending many thousands to the Gulags after World War 2, after deciding the whole lot of them collaborated with the Nazis. So the majority were probably of Russian descent because over time, Russia got rid of the populations that had been there before.

And on the wider Ukraine/Russia issue, millions of Ukrainians were brutally killed or left to starve in the 1930's because of the liquidation of Kulaks and collectivisation, with people like Krushchev earning their chops making sure the residents don't complain by repressive means. That, and a general discrimination against Ukrainians throughout the Soviet era has given them reason to be pretty peed off with Russians.

Oh, and Yanokovich has been in bed with the Russians for years, letting Putin's middle men and fixers tinker with election results and domestic policy to suit Russian ends. That was probably the reason for the Orange Revolution, which saw what looked like an attempt to poison Viktor Yuschenko. So perhaps the current situation is more like Ukrainians being tired of being bullied into being a puppet state by their bigger neighbour, and the Crimean problem is just Putin wanting to build a bigger base for the Black Sea fleet, with a kick in the knackers for Ukraine for good measure. I doubt the Tartar minority will enjoy being under Russian rule, though I may be wrong.

Some people are just so, I don't know, anti-USA, anti-globalisation, anti-'the West' that they see Putin as some sort of......hero for being his own man and getting what he wants. That is despite all the vote rigging, invasions of his neighbours, murders and imprisonment of critics, persecution of gays etc. That is all swept under the carpet because he sticks two fingers up to Obama and western multinationals.

So it's more like Northern Ireland than the Falklands. Of course, we wouldn't frame Northern Ireland in that light because it reflects badly on us.

Putin is not a hero to me, but looking at it properly he is also not a strongman.

His malleable friend in Kyiv was ousted and replaced with pro-EU guys that he can't control, so he made a desperate grab for power over part of the country to give the impression of strength. Crimea gives him very little that he didn't already have, and if he thought the US was in a position to do anything more than make threats and impose sanctions on people with no US-based assets he wouldn't have rolled the dice.

[Adam C]

So it's more like Northern Ireland than the Falklands. Of course, we wouldn't frame Northern Ireland in that light because it reflects badly on us.

You've hit the nail on the head with your analysis Jeru but I think it is unfair to compare the situation in Ireland to the Crimea. British policy hasn't always been enlightened in this part of the world but nobody was sent to a prison camp, any genocide took place centuries ago and these days Ulster is part of the UK by popular consent.

Hang on what am I thinking... Mr Putin come save us next